Limit O8 - Folding too much? Example #2
 

Primarily a Hold'Em player, novice O8 player, and I'm trying to adjust to hand values. I've figured out that unless you scoop the implied odds and the effective odds suck at this game. But on this hand, I've got the third nut for high and am drawing to the 2nd nut for low (or the nut if I get a real lucky 3 on the board).

Was this hand played okay?

Paradise Poker 0.50/1 Omaha/8 (9 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $0.50.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero (poster) checks, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, SB calls, BB folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (5 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, MP3 folds, Hero folds, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB calls.

River: (9 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, SB calls.

Final Pot: 11 BB

Re: Limit O8 - Folding too much? Example #2
 

I think this fold is good.

The button's flop bet could have been an attempt to pick up the pot or get a turn free card (if he has a set), but when SB bets the turn that is more worrying.

Maybe I'd call down with the nut low draw if I thought SB would bet the turn with less than the nut flush, but even then folding might be best (especially with flop bettor yet to act, since he could raise and I'd be caught in the middle...).

Re: Limit O8 - Folding too much? Example #2
 

Like the OP I am trying to learn O8 starting with limit and I have a question.

What would you think of folding this preflop unless the A were suited?

Re: Limit O8 - Folding too much? Example #2
 

It's definitely playable in LP with several callers. It's not a monster by any means, but it has potential.

Re: Limit O8 - Folding too much? Example #2
 

Don't forget the OP posted a blind and got to see the flop for free.

Re: Limit O8 - Folding too much? Example #2
 

Your flop decision should be either fold or raise (then fold to a third bet).

Why called the flop then folded the turn?

Re: Limit O8 - Folding too much? Example #2
 

The turn bet by the sb is worrisome, however I think the raise might be a better option than folding.

I think you would be able to drive out some of the nut low draws. If you do and the sb has the nut flush, maybe you get lucky and back into the low on the river.

Re: Limit O8 - Folding too much? Example #2
 

Got0uts wrote:
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Why called the flop then folded the turn?

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My thinking was:

Why would the SB bet that turn card? Looks like the liklihood of my 3rd nut flush being best just decreased by a lot.

And, now I may face a raise from the player still to act with what I now think is a weak hand.

Re: Limit O8 - Folding too much? Example #2
 

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Your flop decision should be either fold or raise (then fold to a third bet).

Why called the flop then folded the turn?

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I think you call the flop because you are getting 9 to 1 odds, you are closing the action, and some cards can help you on the turn (a 3 would be best, a T wouldn't be such a bad thing, and although it ruins the low draw A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] would improve chances for high).

You fold the turn because the J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] doesn't help, the SB's betting could mean he has the nut flush and was waiting to make sure the board didn't pair on the turn, the button might raise, you only have nut outs for the low, and you are only getting 6 to 1 odds (assuming you have a chance to scoop, which is assuming a lot...).

A fold on the flop wouldn't be terrible, but with so many players staying in and closing the action I would call. I don't think this hand is strong enough to raise on the flop (and I don't think rasing the flop gets anyone to fold anything you want folded since they've all called the 1st bet already).

STOP, JUST STOP, RIGHT NOW.
 

Let me get this straight, I might have mis-read your post, but, you're folding the third nuts and the second nut low draw here? You have a two way hand. You cannot fold here on the turn, or the flop! Sometimes they'll show you the Ac 3c, but this is limit poker, if it was PL, I'd say yes, you can fold this hand to a huge turn bet, but dont fold a Q-high flush and the second nut low draw on this turn! If a 3 pops off on the river, you have the nut low and a high hand that only gets beat by two other high hands! Especially in a low-limit O8B game, you'll see players making raises here with a lot of hands besides the nuts. I think you need to see this river card every time in this spot. If you miss your low, and there is significant river action, you can drop, but I think this fold on the turn is -EV in a big way.



Tex

Re: Limit O8 - Folding too much? Example #2
 

I really appreciate the responses, they have definately got me thinking in a few directions.

I’ve definitely got a mixed response on this hand that makes me wonder who is right. I’ve gotten fold the flop or raise the flop I’ve gotten raise the turn, I’ve gotten I played it right, I’ve gotten a very strong you can’t fold the turn.

So, I’ve gotten nowhere, someone please tell me who’s right. Lol, that won’t work anyway as I don’t know who to believe. Maybe after I spend more time reading this forum I’ll get a feel for who the heavy weights are.

Let me try to analyze the turn although I’m so new to O8 that I’m not sure of my judgment on hand strength. Hopefully then you all can pick away at my assumptions which should be educational to me.

The turn card was a blank yet the SB bets into 4 players including the flop better. I really have to discount my Q high flush here, I’m guessing I’m only better than the SB for high 25% of the time and better than the Button for high 33% of the time.

I’ve got 4 outs to the nut low, which may result in a split let’s just guess 10% of the time. I’ve got 12 outs to the 2nd nut low, let’s say that’s a split 10% and when it doesn’t split I win 66% of the time vs. the SB and 66% of the time vs. the button.

I’m assuming on average it will cost 2 BB to see the river and the amount for me to win if I scoop is 9BB.

Catch the nut low and win low = 4/44 * 90% = 8.2% * 4.5 = .37 BB
Catch the nut low and tie low = 4/44 * 10% = 0.9% * 2.25 = .02
Catch the 2nd nut low and win low = 12/44 * 90% *66% * 66% = 11% * 4.5 = .48
Catch the 2nd nut low and tie low = 12/44 * 10% = 3% * 2.25 = .06

Make the low and win high = 12/44 * 25% * 33% = 2% * 4.5 = .10
Miss the low but win high = 32/44 * 25% * 33% = 6% * 4.5 = .27

Lose both high and low 1 – (8.2% + 0.9% + 11% + 3% +2% +6%) = 69% * -2 = -1.38

Total (big caveat: if my assumptions and math are correct) = - 0.08 BB

I’ve done this type of work up for Hold’em, wow, it’s much more complicated for a split pot game.

Re: Limit O8 - Folding too much? Example #2
 

I hate this fold, too. I think the SB's lead bet frequently means a low-draw with a turned pair, two pair, etc. He now likes his equity enough (since only a late position player bet the flop and nobody raised) to try betting back through the field.

In your shoes, I would start jamming with this hand. You might fold out the 2nd nut flush or other 2nd nut low draws.

Yeah, you might get carved up sometimes with a two-way non-nut hand like this, but [censored] happens. Folding is even worse.

Re: Limit O8 - Folding too much? Example #2
 

I'm certainly not the most experienced or successful player on this forum, but I'm surprised there has been such strong support for throwing money in the pot with this hand. It may be borderline, but I think it is on the bad side of the border.

I think the only times it can be profitable to play a hand like this on the turn are when you are short handed or your opponents are complete idiots (which sometimes they are, but such a read wasn't mentioned by OP).

So, if you've found an O/8 game where people are betting J high flushes and A5 low draws while at the same time they fold K high flushes and nut low draws, then call or raise the turn and add everyone at the table to your buddy list.

Otherwise, I still think it is a fold.

Re: Limit O8 - Folding too much? Example #2
 

You have a decent two-way hand. Yes, usually you don't want to be sticking around with non-nut hands. But I agree with many of the others.

You're going to run into A LOT of players who look at Omaha hi/lo as if it's hold 'em. And they'll play accordingly (i.e. they hold top pair, top kicker and will go all the way with it, they just don't have a clue)

I would certainly get out of the way in Pot Limit Omaha hi/lo. But in limit, I'd likely stick around. It also depends on what info I have on the other players. If I've been watching them play and showing down UTG limped hands like K/6/9/3 suited to the 6, well, I'm not giving them credit for squat. This is where Poker Tracker comes in handy as well, you can see statistically, if those specific opponents are playing way too many hands and being overly agressive.

Re: Limit O8 - Folding too much? Example #2
 

fep - I don't think you should fold the queen high flush plus the second nut low draw in a limit game. Not on the flop and not on the turn. I think you have to stand your ground.

One might make a case for not <font color="white">_</font>drawing for the queen high flush plus second nut low but once you already have it, I think you hang in there.

The question is whether to <font color="white">_</font>raise or not. (I think you probably do better, on the average, by not raising here).

Buzz

Re: Limit O8 - Folding too much? Example #2
 

Preflop- I think this is a great spot to raise with your A4QT, but a call is fine here. My raise/call ratio usually would be 70/30 in this type of spot.
Flop- You have the 3rd nuts for high, and the 2nd nut low draw for low. Not a terrific hand, but in the .50/1.00 O8 games this is a solid hand, certainly worth of calling a lone bet.
Turn- One player is gone, the pot is now 3-handed when you make your first decision. I think this is a great spot to raise. It is very hard for a lone player to have you scooped if a low card comes. I think your hand warrants a sort of "semi-bluff" here.

Re: Limit O8 - Folding too much? Example #2
 

Pre-flop:The call is correct.I would not consider a raise unless the A were suited,&amp; even then the raise would be marginal.
Flop:After 4 players have checked &amp; 1 remaining,a bet is better than a check.You could easily have the best high hand.If someone else had a higher flush,he would have bet it to make the low draws &amp; trip/2pr hands pay to play.You should bet your 3rd nut flush/2nd nut low draw for the same reason.Underplaying your hand at this point will subject you to a guessing game on the turn.
Turn:Now you must guess since you can't tell "where you're at" because of your flop underplay.Is SB betting because he has the nut flush(unlikely) or because he thinks his set/top 2 pair is good because of the weakness shown on the turn.If button was betting a low draw,SB does'nt want to give him a free card.Since you have played it this way so far,the turn raise seems to be a good idea.Your hand is too good to fold.You get more EV from a raise than a call derived from value/thin field/free showdown.(What do you think,Buzz?)
Good luck to you. Ben

Re: Limit O8 - Folding too much? Example #2
 

Thanks for the comments all. Lots of food for thought. In spite of my math contorsions, my opinion has changed to I shouldn't have folded this hand.

Re: Limit O8 - Folding too much? Example #2
 

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the comments all. Lots of food for thought. In spite of my math contorsions, my opinion has changed to I shouldn't have folded this hand.

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Nice to see someone who isnt always stubborn in his view point. By the way, dont be afraid to post more LO8 hands, this board is becoming too saturated with PL. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: Limit O8 - Folding too much? Example #2
 

[ QUOTE ]
Flop:After 4 players have checked &amp; 1 remaining,a bet is better than a check.You could easily have the best high hand.If someone else had a higher flush,he would have bet it to make the low draws &amp; trip/2pr hands pay to play.You should bet your 3rd nut flush/2nd nut low draw for the same reason.Underplaying your hand at this point will subject you to a guessing game on the turn.

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Ben - I completely agree.

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Turn: ..... Your hand is too good to fold.....

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Absolutely!

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Now you must guess .....

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Yes.

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..... the turn raise seems to be a good idea. You get more EV from a raise than a call derived from value/thin field/free showdown. (What do you think,Buzz?)

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Whether to call or raise seems close to me. Hero's timing is off because (as you pointed out) of the missed bet on the flop.

Buzz