Thoughts on the World Cup Draw
 

Note: this was posted in the earlier thread on the WC Draw as well, but figured it was also worthy of its own thread.

Some other thoughts about the WC Draw:

England didn't get that bad of a draw at all. Paraguay, whom they've owned the past 5 times they've played them, Trinidad, a first-time team that's probably going to be just happy to be there, like Jamaica in '98, and Sweden, who are tough but not world-class tough, in addition to which England will probably have already qualified for the Second Round by the time they ever play them.

Germany is going to the Second Round. Ecuador can't win any game that isn't played on top of an Andean mountain, Poland is probably the weakest European team (with the possible exception of Switzerland) in this tournament, and Costa Rica was the 3rd-place CONCACAF team and while they're usually competitive in the World Cup, they rarely come out on top. I think the Germans might be in a little trouble once they come OUT of this group, but especially considering that they're the home team, they were practically just HANDED 9 points here.

Group C is the Group of Death (although the US group is tough too, too tough for the US I fear). The worst team in it is Ivory Coast, who are probably the most -talented- African team in this World Cup. The Serbians are quite good and have been for years, although they rarely threaten to WIN any of these tournaments. Argentina vs. Holland? Match of the first round. Too bad, the Ivorians probably would've stood a good chance at the Second Round or Quarterfinals if they hadn't been thrown to the dogs like this.

Mexico and Portugal have a walk in Group D. Iran is saying this is their best team ever, which is kind of like Phil Hellmuth saying that he feels like he's really on top of his high-stakes Stud Hi-Lo ring game. They still ain't good enough. Angola's going to be up for the Portugal game (hundreds of years of brutal colonization will do that to you), but they don't have the talent to do anything other than maybe make it close. Portugal is the only team in this group, though, that has ANY chance to make a real move later in the tournament, and it's not like they're going to pushed here. Plus, it is REALLY the last chance for their "Golden Generation" now. Now or never for them.

OK, now that I've stopped panicking about the US draw, I can look at it a bit more objectively. Italy is gonna be a problem, especially now that they have a couple people who can put the ball in the net, and a coach and system that will allow them to do so. That I stand firm on. Now that I've had a few moments to calm down, the Czech Republic seems to me to be a team a lot like Portugal was in 2002...i.e., a highly-hyped "dark horse" pick, but no real reason to go out of one's mind with fear about playing them. What have they ever won? They've had a few good runs in European Championships, but their WC history is spotty at best. We can definitely get a draw, and maybe a win, out of this match. Ghana is certainly beatable. The fact that they've won the Youth World Cup a couple times, and have won more African Nations Cups than anybody (but most of them years and years ago), means that they have some talented players, but this is their first World Cup, and they'll be going up against a US team that's way more experienced at this level. The more I think about it, the more I think the US can advance as long as we don't let the Italy game get out of hand.

Group F: Brazil, in a walk. Australia might give them a worry or 2 for say, 15 minutes, but they are not going to be threatened until late, late in this tournament, if at all. In fact, I think the only 2 teams that can beat them at all are England and France (more on the French later). Yes, I know England lost to them in the 2002 QFs and Brazil's team this year is better than in 2002. So is England's, and England was the only team in that tournament that ever had Brazil in danger of elimination, or that could match up with them at all...a few less bonehead plays in that match and perhaps the World Cup is sitting at FA headquarters in London the last 4 years. Australia I think goes through as well, and has a shot at the quarterfinals. While I wouldn't be shocked to see Japan or Croatia go through (either one of them is certainly capable of beating the Aussies), I'm not predicting it.

Group G: France easily wins it. Why is everyone so down on them? Yes, they struggled to qualify, but remember, so did Brazil in 2002...not many people were picking them to win in Japan/Korea, and they dominated the tournament. Yes, Zidane came out of int'l retirement and is getting a little long in the tooth. He's still Zidane. He's still dangerous. And they have the world's greatest striker in Henry, and the world's greatest defensive midfielder in Vieira. And this is a sprint, not a marathon. The advancing age of some key players I don't think is going to be nearly the factor people think it is. Anyone who doesn't think that a team with Zidane, Vieira, Henry, Trezeguet, Thuram, Pires, Barthez (still a perfectly serviceable keeper) and Cisse doesn't have at least an outside chance to win the World Cup is on drugs, IMHO. They're also playing in a neighboring country, so they'll have plenty of support. Speaking of on drugs, I'm gonna get flamed for this one, but -I think Togo has a chance to advance out of this group-. Not a GREAT chance, but a chance. Switzerland is one of the 2 weakest European teams in the WC. I am not sure South Korea can duplicate their 2002 results without 75,000 of their red-clad fans screaming in the opposition's faces at 450 decibels for 90 minutes, although on talent they're probably #2 in this group. If the Koreans DO get to Round 2, they're not going any farther this time. You know what, I'm going to go out on a limb here. France first in this group, Togo second. There's always a big surprise in Round 1, and this may be it.

Group H is the group I wish the US had been drawn in. The seeded team, Spain, is one where you look up "World Cup chokers" in the dictionary and find a map of their country (although they were badly robbed vs. Korea in the 2002 QFs and could easily have reached the final vs. Brazil if either of their 2 perfectly good goals in that game were awarded). If anything happens to Shevchenko, as great a player as he is, God help Ukraine. Tunisia are African champions, true, but that's mostly because they were the home team and benefitted from some VERY questionable refereeing decisions, and they have never done ANYTHING at the World Cup. Saudi Arabia couldn't possibly be worse than they were in Korea/Japan, and they might win a game this time and perhaps have a tiny chance of even -advancing- in this weak group if they get some good bounces, but no one's gonna fear them.

June cannot come quickly enough.

--Scott

Re: Thoughts on the World Cup Draw
 

As far as the US is concerned, Czech Republic is clearly the stronger of the two european sides in this group. I think a draw against them would be an extreamly welcome result. I believe Italy is a winnable game but obviously a draw would be welcome in that match as well. The key for the US will be to salvage two points from their first two games.

Assumking Ghana goes winnless in this group, should the US enter the final match with only one point, they'll be facing a situation in which with a win of the Ghana, they would have four points and would have to rely on a team which has already qualified to win their final match against their opponent who is still fighting for a qualification spot (Italy-Czech match plays after US-Ghana). Then, even if such a scenario whould play out, the US would be tied with either Italy or Czech (presumably the team that they drew) and would need to advance on goal differencial.

Defense will be a key in this group, which fortunately I believe the US does have in their favor. Keller is one of the top keepers in the world and should he stay healthy the US has a realistic chance to move on from Group E.

Then not to look ahead, but a second place group finish would most likely match the Americans up against Brazil...

Re: Thoughts on the World Cup Draw
 

Look Czech.rep might have a better squad than Italy but theyre just not a better team.
Italy is a very wise team who will do a lot of ugly thing to win.
Anyway who will Freedy Edu rooting for in the ghana-usa game??

Re: Thoughts on the World Cup Draw
 

All in all this was one of the worst ways that this draw could have played out. However, I sincerely doubt that any of the other countries in the group are pleased by their situation either.

I would not be surprised to see any minus Ghana advance.

Re: Thoughts on the World Cup Draw
 

the US team will have to study the Greece/Czech Rep game like no tommorrow. This is how they can win, it won't be pretty, but if you kick Nedved and Rosiscky a few times, the service to the Czech forwards will be nil. The Czechs do have a problem with firepower up front. Jan Koller is not a great striker, he is just tall, well the US has defenders who can counter that

Italy can be beat too, but, it won't be easy. The US will have to make the most of their chances, and that will be hard considering that Buffon is arguably the best keeper in the World. Italy's front line though will have a hard time. Pippo has been overrated for a long time, Del Piero has never regained his amazing form pre-injury, Cassano isn't consistent, and Vieri has been showing his age in recent years. The key again will be whether or not the US will be willing to play ugly and put the boot to the italian midfielders. We will probably have to play a defensive 3-5-2 or a defensive 4-4-2.

THe strength for the US overall will be their defense, goalkeeping, and the wingplay, namely of Demarcus Beasley. I do worry about our strike power as Eddie Johnson is the only reliable striker, and he hasn't faced opposition like this ever in his career. Brian McBride is solid and has done well in the Prem when he has played there

The US will gain respect IMO in how they will play at WC 2006. The MLS has been improving and has turned into a decent league and will help provide players for this US squad. We have a strong defense and a solid midfield, so if we can make the most of our chances and do well from set pieces, we may be able to pick up 4 or 5 pts, and that might be enough to go through to the next rd

Re: Thoughts on the World Cup Draw
 

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Thoughts on the World Cup Draw

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f$@#!

Re: Thoughts on the World Cup Draw
 

Even if the US advances, it pretty much has to win the group to avoid elimination in the first game after group play. Brazil is pretty much guaranteed winning group F, so they would play the runner up of group E.

Re: Thoughts on the World Cup Draw
 

jgunnip,

you said "(Italy-Czech match plays after US-Ghana)" Is this true? In the past they play the 3rd matchday matches at the same time to eliminate any sort of advantage of playing later. This is precisely because a team will play differently if they know they need a draw versus maybe needing to win and a team will play differently if they may need a draw than if they're through.

I don't see why they would change that.

Puzzled,

Jared

Re: Thoughts on the World Cup Draw
 

of course its not true.

Re: Thoughts on the World Cup Draw
 

Here are my predictions for the group rankings. They could change rather drastically, obviously as injuries and form between now and then are bound to change things.

A:
Germany
Poland
Costa Rica
Ecuador

B:
England
Sweden
Paraguay
T&T

C:
Netherlands
Argentina
S&M
Ivory Coast

D:
Portugal
Mexico
Iran
Angola

E:
Czech Republic
Italy
US
Ghana

F:
Brazil
Croatia
Australia
Japan

G:
France
Switzerland
South Korea
Togo

H:
Spain
Ukraine
Saudi Arabia
Tunisia

Most picks I suspect are standard except Switzerland going through from G. They have a huge advantage of basically playing 3 home games. South Korea aren't that good, but used home field advantage to make an amazing run last world cup. On that note I think Poland and the Netherlands should also greatly benefit from playing very nearby. I think Australia has a good shot at going through in group F. The US has it tough and I don't see going through.

One of the more important parts of the draw is the matchups in the knockout stage. With my picks the bracket looks like this:

Germany vs Sweden
Netherlands vs Mexico

Czech Republic vs Croatia
France vs Ukraine



Poland vs England
Portugal vs Argentina

Brazil vs Italy
Spain vs Switzerland

England and Sweden play on the last matchday. Winning that group will be of vital importance to avoid meeting hosts Germany in the round of 16. I think discussion of the Czech Republic or Italy mailing it in on the last matchday is overdone because the second place team from the group will likely play Brazil in the round of 16. Both these pairings make two matches that could be between teams already qualified much more exciting.

Looking at the schedules the third matchday will be ridiculously good. Costa Rica - Poland, Croatia - Australia, Switzerland - Korea, and Ukraine - Tunisia are likely to be 2-3 with the winner going through. In the other four groups it's likely to be 1 vs 2 going into the last day. In two of these there will be much at stake as I said above. Argentina - Netherlands may not be playing for much at that point but it should be quite good as well.

Re: Thoughts on the World Cup Draw
 

Boy, wouldn't it have been nice to be seeded and get Mexico's draw instead of the one we got?

Re: Thoughts on the World Cup Draw
 

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Poland vs England
Portugal vs Argentina



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interesting. England and argentina might meet in the quarters to continue a great rivalry, if that happens, that might end up being the match of the tournament

Re: Thoughts on the World Cup Draw
 

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Poland vs England
Portugal vs Argentina



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interesting. England and argentina might meet in the quarters to continue a great rivalry, if that happens, that might end up being the match of the tournament

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I was going to put this in the other post, but I guess I took it out.

England and Argentina have to finish in different places and win their first knockout game to advance. So if England win their group and Argentina finish second or if Argentina win and Engand finish second they meet in the quarterfinal if they get through their round of 16 match.

That would be a fantastic match.

Re: Thoughts on the World Cup Draw
 

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Thoughts on the World Cup Draw

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U.S got screwed. Mexico lucked out.

Re: Thoughts on the World Cup Draw
 

Group 3 is fkn tough

Re: Thoughts on the World Cup Draw
 

[ QUOTE ]
jgunnip,

you said "(Italy-Czech match plays after US-Ghana)" Is this true? In the past they play the 3rd matchday matches at the same time to eliminate any sort of advantage of playing later. This is precisely because a team will play differently if they know they need a draw versus maybe needing to win and a team will play differently if they may need a draw than if they're through.

I don't see why they would change that.

Puzzled,

Jared

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You are correct, this was an oversight on my part. The US-Ghana match is simply listed ahead of the other match (DOH!).

However, the scenario still remains, where it is likely one of those teams will have already secured a spot. But, they will likely also be bidding to secure the top seed and avoid Brazil so there should be a fair match.

Re: Thoughts on the World Cup Draw
 

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You are correct, this was an oversight on my part. The US-Ghana match is simply listed ahead of the other match (DOH!).

However, the scenario still remains, where it is likely one of those teams will have already secured a spot. But, they will likely also be bidding to secure the top seed and avoid Brazil so there should be a fair match.

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Don't worry about it, in a thread awhile ago I said Brazil won the world cup in France '98, it happens.

The problem for the US will come if they need someone to win in the other match. It could turn into what in Spain they sometimes refer to as 'el partido de la X' or the 'X match' This refers to a type of soccer lottery game they have where you make predictions on the outcome of some or all of the games and it gets paid based on how many you get right. In that game you mark 1 for the home team winning, 2 for the away team and X if you think it will be a draw. In these matches both teams gain a lot from a draw and nothing more from winning than drawing.

Unfortunaly for the US that may be the case. Suppose the US loses to the Czech Republic and draws Italy, and both those teams beat Ghana. The US will have 1 point, Italy 4 and the Czech Republic 6. A draw puts Italy through and the Czechs avoid Brazil. Italy would obviously gain by not playing Brazil next but would obviously not be too keen on throwing everything forward to get a win. The Czech Republic would probably be playing like a team that won the first leg 1-0 in a home and home match - vaguely trying for a goal but making damn sure to not get caught on a counterattack.

Playing Australia, Croatia, or Japan instead of Brazil might be a big enough carrot. Hopefully so.

Re: Thoughts on the World Cup Draw
 

I'm pretty sure that in this scenario Italy will be trying their hardest to win...

Re: Thoughts on the World Cup Draw
 

I was watching FOx Football Friday, and the hosts brought up a very good point that will negatively effect the US. Italy normally has a bad game in their first match in big competitions, well, guess what, the US is the second game. What this means is that the US will have to play the game of their lives against the czech rep.

One thing that I have forgotten though is that Nedved is retired from international play. This is huge if he doesn't come back for the WC. Rosiscky isn't anywhere near the player that nedved is, and they will be relying on Jan Koller to get their goals, and IMO Koller isn't that strong of a striker. THe main problem for the US in that game will getting anything past petr cech. Look at his play for Chelsea and how he has done on the internation scene.

If only the US had played some more competetive friendlies in the past few years or had gone to the last Copa America we would be seeded as we only lost out on it by a measly point. The USSF is fully to blame for this, instead of programing matches against Cuba et al then we'd be talking about who the US would be facing in the 2nd rd and if they would be possibly going to the quarters. I think that the US can still advance, but, a lot of factors will have to come into play, and in the end, the talent gap might not be closed through great team play

Re: Thoughts on the World Cup Draw
 

When Czech were struggling to qualify, Nedved came out of retirement and played in their last few games. I assume he will play in the WC.

Re: Thoughts on the World Cup Draw
 

tl; dr.

I'm assuming the gist was:

U-S-A!

Bring 'em on!

Re: Thoughts on the World Cup Draw
 

Since no one else will say it, I will.

USA is winning their group.

USA USA USA USA USA USA

Re: Thoughts on the World Cup Draw
 

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If only the US had played some more competetive friendlies in the past few years...

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I agree and hopefully we'll see some positive results from the scheduled friendlies leading up to WC 2006. While Canada shouldn't be a tough game, matches against Norway and Japan should provide good test, both from the level of play as well as the differeing styles of play.

Leading up to WC '02, the US matched up against (at)South Korea, (at)Germany, Holland, Ireland, and Uraguay. Maybe (hopefully) the USSF will add some additional friendlies to the slate in preparation for this tough Group.

Re: Thoughts on the World Cup Draw
 

The Spanish are obviously pretty happy. Here's the Marca, the biggest sports newspaper based in Madrid, from yesterday:
http://www.marca.com/primeras/05/12/g1210.jpg

Chupao is a slang term for easy.

Re: Thoughts on the World Cup Draw
 

well, it also goes for between world cups. We need to play more friendlies against decent nations, but unfortunetly this group will also negatively effect possible seeding in 2010. If we can get out of this group, and start playing more competetive matches overall, we should be able to be seeded in the next WC. We also will need to play in a Copa America as that is a very competetive tourny and we should be able to do well in it

Re: Thoughts on the World Cup Draw
 

Italy can be beat too, but, it won't be easy. The US will have to make the most of their chances, and that will be hard considering that Buffon is arguably the best keeper in the World. Italy's front line though will have a hard time. Pippo has been overrated for a long time, Del Piero has never regained his amazing form pre-injury, Cassano isn't consistent, and Vieri has been showing his age in recent years. The key again will be whether or not the US will be willing to play ugly and put the boot to the italian midfielders. We will probably have to play a defensive 3-5-2 or a defensive 4-4-2.

KDawg

You're not really mister current affairs when it comes to the azzurri. Vieri, Del Piero, Inzaghi and Cassano are not givens to make Italy's 23 man squad. Lippi will go to the World Cup with a fresh young striking pair of Luca Toni and Alberto Gilardino. Toni is runaway leading scorer in Seria A and both men have shown the ability to hit the back of the net for the national team.

Given Totti is a certainty if Italy name 5 - 6 forwards one or two of mentioned players will miss out.

Re: Thoughts on the World Cup Draw
 

If Korea/Japan taught us anything its make predictions at your own peril.

Some of the seeds will probably fall at the first hurdle and some teams will surprise.

Statements like Ghana going winless and Ivory Coast is the weakest team in group C all sound fair and well but don't be surprised when these teams force you to eat those words.

I've seen Ivory Coast play and they will be no push over in that difficult group.

But if we are going to make bold predictions heres mine.

Hand the trophy to Brazil now.

It's actually embarrising the amount of excellence they have in this team.

This is the best Brazilian team since '82(I know they didn't win in '82, my point is its there's to lose and not someone elses to win) and in Ronaldinihio they have what I believe to be the best player I've seen since Maradona, he is very capable of doing what Diego did in '86.

Re: Thoughts on the World Cup Draw
 

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in Ronaldinihio they have what I believe to be the best player I've seen since Maradona, he is very capable of doing what Diego did in '86.

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What, cheat?

Just messing around, he is amazing.

Re: Thoughts on the World Cup Draw
 

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Since no one else will say it, I will.

USA is winning their group.

USA USA USA USA USA USA

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Re: Thoughts on the World Cup Draw
 

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KDawg

You're not really mister current affairs when it comes to the azzurri. Vieri, Del Piero, Inzaghi and Cassano are not givens to make Italy's 23 man squad. Lippi will go to the World Cup with a fresh young striking pair of Luca Toni and Alberto Gilardino. Toni is runaway leading scorer in Seria A and both men have shown the ability to hit the back of the net for the national team.

Given Totti is a certainty if Italy name 5 - 6 forwards one or two of mentioned players will miss out.

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yeah, I realized this. I don't really follow Italy that much, and I forgot about Luca Toni, and I didn't realize that Gilardino was tearing it up real bit

actually, one name that everyone should remember as I think that he is gonna flat out explode is Argentina's Lionel Messi. I saw him at teh U-20s WC last year, and he was playing at a sickingly higher level then anyone else on the field. He has also been tearing it up for Barca this year

Re: Thoughts on the World Cup Draw
 

Tommy Smyth, the irish soccer guy for ESPN, was raving about Messi nonstop during the buildup to the draw.

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We'll pwn Italy. 7 points for the US. Book it.

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for good reason. Messi is just amazing. when I was watching the U-20 WC last year, all I could do is just rave about him. His talent is just sublime and he can do it all. He can make the pretty goal and make the fuctional goal. This kid has all sorts of talent and I am looking forward to him getting playing time at this WC. Really, this may turn out to be his coming out party in june

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We'll pwn Italy. 7 points for the US. Book it.

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Not gonna happen [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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We'll pwn Italy. 7 points for the US. Book it.

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Not gonna happen [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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Are you suggesting we'll get 9 points? I'm not sure I agree, but I like your spirit!

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Are you suggesting we'll get 9 points?

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I'm pretty sure this is the only correct answer.

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for good reason. Messi is just amazing. when I was watching the U-20 WC last year, all I could do is just rave about him. His talent is just sublime and he can do it all. He can make the pretty goal and make the fuctional goal. This kid has all sorts of talent and I am looking forward to him getting playing time at this WC. Really, this may turn out to be his coming out party in june

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I dont disagree about Messi's talent but it's alot to ask of a 20 year old. Messi's best World Cups are probably still ahead of him.

Remember Maradona in '82 young extraordinary talent but boy was he given a hot welcome to the big time.

He went to Mexico 4 years later and single handedly one the cup on his own.

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in Ronaldinihio they have what I believe to be the best player I've seen since Maradona, he is very capable of doing what Diego did in '86.

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What, cheat?

Just messing around, he is amazing.

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I'e always said whilst Maradona's hand of god goal was worth nothing his second in the same game was worth 2 goals.

Still the greatest goal I've ever seen

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And they have the world's greatest striker in Henry

I think Shevchenko, Adriano and Van Nistlerooy may have something to say about that.

Henry as good as he is has failed to deliver on the big stage. 2002 WC and 2004 Euro Champs he was ineffective

Re: Thoughts on the World Cup Draw
 

Let me give all you Americans some insight.

Your World Cup fate rests heavily on one thing, which Italy show up to play you.

Italy are the most frustrating team in world football.

In '02 they started there campaign with an almost effortless 2 - 0 win over Ecuador, from there it just went off the rails.

At Euro '04 anyone who watched that tournament entire will know that Italy produced the best 45 minutes in the first half against Sweden of any team in any game throughout the tournament. But they didn't make it pasted the group stage.

They are a Jekyll and Hyde and we'll have to wait and see who you get