Today\'s quiz at Cardplayer: steal situation
 

Curious what people think of the quiz answer at Cardplayer today (taken from Middle Limit Poker). The link is here.

But I'll summarize. Game is 30/60 (full). Hero open raises on button with AhKh. Only sb calls. Flop is Jc10c3d. Action goes check, bet, call. Turn is 4d. Now sb c/r.

Question is what to do after the c/r. The book recommends folding.

Re: Today\'s quiz at Cardplayer: steal situation
 

There's no way I fold there.

Rob

Re: Today\'s quiz at Cardplayer: steal situation
 

Me neither.

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The example forgot to include the SB's pokertracker stats and pertinent reads.

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I suppose I might as well include the explanation:

"Fold. There is $390 in the pot and it costs you $60 to try and get an ace, a king, or a queen. Ostensibly, with 10 outs, this seems like an easy call. The problem is that an ace or a king may not be an out. If your opponent has two pair or a set, you have only four outs with a gutshot queen, which figures to be an 11-to-1 shot. With just a top pair of jacks, your opponent might have bet the flop. But when you get check-raised on the turn, you may well up against two pair like jack-ten, or better. In rare cases, your opponent may be semi-bluffing some kind of draw like a flush-draw. He might have a pair and a flush-draw, giving him the best hand and a good draw. The Ac, Kc, Qc, Ad, Kd, or the Qd may give your opponent a flush. Agreed that he cannot have all these holdings, but the point is that you will not win every time even when you hit one of your outs."

Re: Today\'s quiz at Cardplayer: steal situation
 

Depends on villain.

In some circumstances (e.g. Mr. Uber Passive) it's OK to fold.

With the state of online poker, you have easy odds to call at least the turn. The turn checkriase could be a set or 2 pair but also likely to be Jx, Tx, even a straight or flush draw sometimes. Against this hand range you have odds to call the turn and hit top pair or the gutshot.

The more difficult question is whether to call a blank river or not, which is obviously opponent/image specific.

The problem stems from the normal criticism of MLH: It advocates folding to turn check-raises far too often. This appears to stem from the fact that it was written for historic weak-tight live games where turn check raises really did mean "I can beat top pair". With the ultra-aggressive and fancy state of online games, a different play is often correct.

However, I do think MLH is a great book, and still does a great job of highlighting certain situations that you really should be folding. You just have to keep the different table dynamics in mind.

Re: Today\'s quiz at Cardplayer: steal situation
 

At least call the turn.

If everyone followed the advice to fold (which they used to more frequently a year ago and still do in live games) semi-bluffing draws and raising hands weaker than 2 pair often become a correct play for the SB to make. Absent a read, you should call this turn and most rivers as well.

Re: Today\'s quiz at Cardplayer: steal situation
 

Raise flop and check the turn for the free card.

Re: Today\'s quiz at Cardplayer: steal situation
 

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Raise flop and check the turn for the free card.

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Read it again. Villain checked the flop, hero bet and villain called. Villain then c/r the turn.

Re: Today\'s quiz at Cardplayer: steal situation
 

Anyone check the turn and call a river bet unimproved? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Does the book give a player read? That would really help here.

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why would anyone bet the turn here?

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why would anyone bet the turn here?

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The usual reasons? Because villain might be on a draw, our hand might be best, if our hand is no good there are a ton of outs and villain will not necessarily c/r.

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why would anyone bet the turn here?

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Sweet. Victor agrees with me. I might actually be right for once.

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The usual reasons? Because villain might be on a draw, our hand might be best, if our hand is no good there are a ton of outs and villain will not necessarily c/r.

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yeah, but...

* this flop is coordinated and likely to have hit BB
* a checkraise sucks here. we have just enough outs to call, but not enough to feel very good about it.
* you can induce a bluff on the end from a busted draw or other random hand that peeled on the flop. usually that bet will go in either way on the river.
* you might extract a couple bets on the river if you hit a Q and BB was slowplaying JT or something

Re: Today\'s quiz at Cardplayer: steal situation
 

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why would anyone bet the turn here?

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Sweet. Victor agrees with me. I might actually be right for once.

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youre well on your way to being a marginal winner with huge swings.

Re: Today\'s quiz at Cardplayer: steal situation
 

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why would anyone bet the turn here?

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The usual reasons? Because villain might be on a draw, our hand might be best, if our hand is no good there are a ton of outs and villain will not necessarily c/r.

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if hes passive this line is good and you have to fold. the reasoning is that you are charging him for his draws and if he does cr then you likely only have 4 outs since he is only cring with 2 pair or better. if this is 30/60 live in vegas i think this is probably a good line.

against an aggro semibluffing opponent i prefer checking behind and if you are betting you have to call since you certainly have odds against his one pair hands even if you are reverse dominated. on party i think you gotta call the raise and its probably better not to even bet bc of my next point.

the thing about your hand is you have 0 bluffing power. you are either ahead or behind to a pair and NOONE FOLDS A PAIR HEADS UP. with hands like kq or q9 or 89 or k9 i would like a bet bc there is some chance he lays down ace high. ultimately, bet/fold against an aggro here is only goin to allow you to be 1. moved off a better hand and 2. not realize your hands potential.

Re: Today\'s quiz at Cardplayer: steal situation
 

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The usual reasons? Because villain might be on a draw, our hand might be best, if our hand is no good there are a ton of outs and villain will not necessarily c/r.

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yeah, but...

* this flop is coordinated and likely to have hit BB
* a checkraise sucks here. we have just enough outs to call, but not enough to feel very good about it.
* you can induce a bluff on the end from a busted draw or other random hand that peeled on the flop. usually that bet will go in either way on the river.
* you might extract a couple bets on the river if you hit a Q and BB was slowplaying JT or something

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Wynton is right...

Checking behind with outs is good if we're not likely to have the best hand. That's not the case here.

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* a checkraise sucks here. we have just enough outs to call, but not enough to feel very good about it.

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This is just wrong because:

1) Poker is about making correct decisions, not about feeling good or bad when raised.

2) We're not getting c/r'ed 100% of the time.

If villain had just called or folded (which happens sometimes here), this wouldn't have been an issue.

Re: Today\'s quiz at Cardplayer: steal situation
 

I'd like to run the numbers in PokerStove to see how much equity we have against a reasonable BB range. This is a pure value/protect-your-hand-type bet as Victor points out.

We induce a bluff a lot on the river from the hands that we beat. This makes a big difference. That bet goes in anyway often when we are ahead and would have checked behind on the river after a turn bet.

By feeling bad about the checkraise, I mean that we often do not have a huge amount of outs when it happens -- at best about 7 outs on average I'd estimate -- but enough that we have to call. I'd like the turn bet a lot more if we could fold to a turn c/r.

Yes, poker is about making correct decisions, and I believe checking the turn here is the correct decision.

(Of course this all depends on the opponent. If BB is very loose and passive, a bet in mandatory.)

Re: Today\'s quiz at Cardplayer: steal situation
 

What's with this mythos that "you have to protect your hand" in situations where your opponent won't fold? If he has a strong draw your bet is for value, not protection. If he's an idiot chaser your bet is for (more) value, not protection. The best we can hope to fold here is a 6 outer or a very weak draw with no pair. Weigh that against the disaster that occurs when you get check-raised here (2 bets in with less than 20% equity) and it should become clear that the only time you'd like to bet this to protect your hand in this small pot is when you're against a passive opponent who's c/r range is strong enough that you can comfortably fold.

Re: Today\'s quiz at Cardplayer: steal situation
 

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Checking behind with outs is good if we're not likely to have the best hand. That's not the case here.

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Actually, I think there is where we disagree. It's fairly likely we don't currently have the best hand if a reasonable BB calls a bet on this flop.

Re: Today\'s quiz at Cardplayer: steal situation
 

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Weigh that against the disaster that occurs when you get check-raised here (2 bets in with less than 20% equity) and it should become clear that the only time you'd like to bet this to protect your hand is when you're against a passive opponent who's c/r range is strong enough that you can comfortably fold.

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quoted for truth.

Re: Today\'s quiz at Cardplayer: steal situation
 

Thanks, Bryce. You and Victor are arguing this much better than I am. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Re: Today\'s quiz at Cardplayer: steal situation
 

check behind on turn because you have a gutshot

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How many outs are we giving hero? I'm thinking we have about 5-5.5 which still gives us odds to call, but like Victor said, hate it. I'd tend to check behind this turn

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Can I assume that those advocating to check the turn are all going to fold the river ui?

One other point. For anyone who hasn't read the book, the authors clearly state that they are not suggesting that each street in their example (before the question) has been played properly.

Re: Today\'s quiz at Cardplayer: steal situation
 

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Can I assume that those advocating to check the turn are all going to fold the river ui?

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No. I know I'd call...

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i call the river ui most of the time

Re: Today\'s quiz at Cardplayer: steal situation
 

Alright, if you're calling the river ui most of the time, then I assume you believe that your hand is best a significant percentage of the time. In that case, you are not checking the turn because of your outs, but because you really hate to be c/r?

Re: Today\'s quiz at Cardplayer: steal situation
 

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i call the river ui most of the time

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Same.

Krishan

Please vote in this poll link

Re: Today\'s quiz at Cardplayer: steal situation
 

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Alright, if you're calling the river ui most of the time, then I assume you believe that your hand is best a significant percentage of the time. In that case, you are not checking the turn because of your outs, but because you really hate to be c/r?

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I don't see any inconsistency. Our hand is good more than 1 time in 5 on the river, but not good often enough to bet the turn given the risk of a c/r. The difference between this hand and the normal AK unimproved-type hands is that here we have to call a turn c/r, and also this flop is more likely to have hit BB.

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I'm checking because I'm assuming I dont have reads and yes, I would hate getting c/rd with slight odds to call

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If the pot had an absolute ton of bets in it I would bet this turn HU. In a small pot the times he passes you with some pair (you have all of broadway covered) are much less significant than the times he cr's you.

Re: Today\'s quiz at Cardplayer: steal situation
 

Here is like my general sort of thinking which is sort of tuned from playing online and might be mistuned. I'm rusty.

I don't know anything about my opponent. I have two overcards and a gutshot. If I get check raised I hate folding because I have a draw to the nuts and I might be folding a hand with ten outs or possibly the best hand. If I check I can call a river bet without worrying too much because I just made a bluff inducing move by checking on the turn and I'm so aggressive on the button I can easily have no hand after my turn check. If I bet the turn, though, he might fold a pocket pair which would be great. He also might fold a hand like Q8 or something which has 10 outs to beat me too. But.. the pot is very small. So I don't mind much if I give a free card because the pot is so small and I might be getting a free card or dodging a check raise anyway. So I'll give him a free card that might be a free card for me in a nothing pot and call his possible bluff bet on the river because I think my hand is probably good >25% of the time. Hope I spike a Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Re: Today\'s quiz at Cardplayer: steal situation
 

I'm not saying it's inconsistent, just trying to clarify the logic.

Let me see if I understand you and the others correctly. We think our hand is good more than 1/5 times, thereby justifying a river call (provided we just checked the turn). We don't like the c/r because we are going to be compelled to call the raise due to our outs (contrary to the advice given by the authors).

But does it really suck so much to call the c/r and then fold an ui river, against this unknown opponent? And don't we need to take into account the times that the villain c/r here just on a draw, but then gives up on the river by checking to us?

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If you were willing to put a bet in on the turn hoping that your hand was best, why wouldn't you be willing to put one in on the river? I almost never fold UI here.

Re: Today\'s quiz at Cardplayer: steal situation
 

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If you were willing to put a bet in on the turn hoping that your hand was best, why wouldn't you be willing to put one in on the river? I almost never fold UI here.

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Well, I don't think that necessarily follows. Just because we believe we are ahead when we bet the turn, does not necessarily mean that we still believe we're ahead once we're check/raised and the villain follows up with another bet.

Re: Today\'s quiz at Cardplayer: steal situation
 

all middle limit poker does recommend is folding.

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I'm talking about calling when we check behind. If you call UI after a c/r you're usually throwing good money away.

Re: Today\'s quiz at Cardplayer: steal situation
 

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Well, I don't think that necessarily follows. Just because we believe we are ahead when we bet the turn, does not necessarily mean that we still believe we're ahead once we're check/raised and the villain follows up with another bet.

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Ooohhh. I thought you meant do we call the river when we check behind on the turn, not do we call the river after the turn c/r.

In that spot I probably fold without a read.

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why would anyone bet the turn here?

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exactly