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-   -   150k hands graph (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=349353)

Dex 10-03-2005 06:55 AM

150k hands graph
 
http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y21.../150kgraph.jpg

TStoneMBD 10-03-2005 06:57 AM

Re: 150k hands graph
 
omg man that is gross. that is the most grossifying grossness i have ever seen. that pic is more gross than tubgirl.

baronzeus 10-03-2005 06:59 AM

Re: 150k hands graph
 
why dont you post graphs for individual limits.

Trix 10-03-2005 07:01 AM

Re: 150k hands graph
 
If you are going to play another 150K, then paying someone to coach you might be smart.

Vaftrudner 10-03-2005 07:02 AM

Re: 150k hands graph
 
[ QUOTE ]
why dont you post graphs for individual limits.

[/ QUOTE ]

daryn 10-03-2005 07:13 AM

Re: 150k hands graph
 
so, you are a losing player?

thesharpie 10-03-2005 07:13 AM

Re: 150k hands graph
 
Where the fux is the graph?

Dex 10-03-2005 07:33 AM

Re: 150k hands graph
 
[ QUOTE ]
why dont you post graphs for individual limits.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here you go.


.50/1 6max
http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y21...0k50-16max.jpg

1/2 6max (the tail end of the main graph)
http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y21...50k1-26max.jpg

3/6 6max
http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y21...50k3-66max.jpg

5/10 6max (the peak of the main graph)
http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y21...0k5-106max.jpg

10/20 6max (not many hands)
http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y21...k10-206max.jpg

.50/1 full
http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y21...0k50-1full.jpg

1/2 full
http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y21...50k1-2full.jpg

2/4 full
http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y21...50k2-4full.jpg

3/6 full
http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y21...50k3-6full.jpg

5/10 full (not many hands)
http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y21...0k5-10full.jpg

15/30 full (not many hands)
http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y21...k15-30full.jpg

10-03-2005 07:38 AM

Re: 150k hands graph
 
Stop playing shorthanded?

thesharpie 10-03-2005 07:38 AM

Re: 150k hands graph
 
[ QUOTE ]
Where the fux is the graph?

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to use shitty IE to view it, or so it seems.

Digs 10-03-2005 07:39 AM

Re: 150k hands graph
 
the only one of those graphs that seems to have a signifigant positive slope is the first one.

I have no idea why you're playing limits before you know you can beat the ones lower than them.
edit:
I can see them fine in firefox

daryn 10-03-2005 07:47 AM

Re: 150k hands graph
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Where the fux is the graph?

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to use shitty IE to view it, or so it seems.

[/ QUOTE ]

untrue sir!

thesharpie 10-03-2005 08:20 AM

Re: 150k hands graph
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Where the fux is the graph?

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to use shitty IE to view it, or so it seems.

[/ QUOTE ]

untrue sir!

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess it's firefox's fault then. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

daryn 10-03-2005 08:25 AM

Re: 150k hands graph
 
i think it's your fault somehow. firefox works

Derek in NYC 10-03-2005 08:50 AM

Re: 150k hands graph
 
Stop moving up so quickly. Stay at 1/2 until you can beat it for 2BB/100 over 100k hands.

college_boy 10-03-2005 09:16 AM

Re: 150k hands graph
 
Why did you continue to move up? I'm not trying to be a dick at all. Was your roll still growing enough to move up or were you playing over your head?

Oilcan 10-03-2005 09:34 AM

Re: 150k hands graph
 
Stop jumping around limits so quick.

Go back to 3/6 full or 6 max or 5/10 full or 6 max.
(PICK ONE ONLY).

Play another 50K hands or until you lose 400BB, then come back and post your results with some hands you have questions about.

regards

Dex 10-03-2005 09:58 AM

Re: 150k hands graph
 
[ QUOTE ]
Why did you continue to move up? I'm not trying to be a dick at all. Was your roll still growing enough to move up or were you playing over your head?

[/ QUOTE ]

Roll was still growing. I had 500BB+ each time I moved up.

RB, especially after switching to 6max, was a huge part of this. Bonuses helped too.

Note that each graph of the individual limits is not necessarily one contiguous set of hands. For example, I switched from 3/6 full to 3/6 6max somewhere around the first +300BB peak on the 3/6 full graph. Then I went to 5/10 6max as the roll kept growing. Eventually, I started losing at 5/10 6max, went back down to 3/6 6max, kept losing, switched back to 3/6 full, lost, won, lost, and went back down in limits from there.

obsidian 10-03-2005 09:59 AM

Re: 150k hands graph
 
Looks like the graphs of someone who took the advice to move up because players there will "respect their raises."

Dex 10-03-2005 10:02 AM

Re: 150k hands graph
 
[ QUOTE ]
Looks like the graphs of someone who took the advice to move up because players there will "respect their raises."

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not why I moved up.

10-03-2005 10:15 AM

Re: 150k hands graph
 
[ QUOTE ]
Why did you continue to move up? I'm not trying to be a dick at all. Was your roll still growing enough to move up or were you playing over your head?

[/ QUOTE ]

This assumes OP relies strictly on poker as his income. He could be a huge long term loser and move up limits as much as he wants....Yet never play over his head.

Bill Gates plays 3/6 hold'em. If he lost 5k in 3/6 and moved up to 100/200, would he be playing over his head? I think he'd be able to handle the swings.

Derek in NYC 10-03-2005 10:35 AM

Re: 150k hands graph
 
Im not sure you're a winning player. Regardless of whatever you bankroll may have been, I find it hard to believe that you had the skills to move up as quickly as you did. I would drop the lowest limit available, and log 100k hands, and then come back.

meow_meow 10-03-2005 10:43 AM

Re: 150k hands graph
 
[ QUOTE ]
Im not sure you're a winning player. Regardless of whatever you bankroll may have been, I find it hard to believe that you had the skills to move up as quickly as you did. I would drop the lowest limit available, and log 100k hands, and then come back.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yuck.
You want him to play 100k hands of 0.5/1?

Nobody needs to play 100k hands of 0.5/1...

What he needs to do is work on his game.
Post hands.
Go through his PT database and figure out where he's losing money, especially blind defense and stealing.

kiddo 10-03-2005 10:48 AM

Re: 150k hands graph
 
After 150K you are down 300BB at the cocktail of limits u played. If u are lucky u could be small winner but u could just as well be a loser. There is no way to know.

You just have to start all over again, reread the books and play a low limit. And keep playing at that limit at least 50K and with a steady winrate.

Just applying Lee Jones should make u a winner at $1/2. If u cant beat $1/2 pretty easily u defintely shouldnt try $3/6 and $5/10 yet.

There are a ton of guys like u, hitting a good run, moving up fast, hitting a bad run and suddenly not knowing how to play anymore. There is a good chance that u are playing weak now. Look out for that. Or maybe u got no respect for the guys at $1/2 now that u have won big pots at $5/10. Look out for that too.

gildwulf 10-03-2005 10:50 AM

Re: 150k hands graph
 
You haven't proven yourself a winning player at any limit. I would go to the lowest limit you feel comfortable with that would still have significant rakeback (3/6 or 5/10) and work on your game there. Post hands.

I'm surprised you didn't come to twoplustwo.com sooner. This is like someone coming into a doctor's office with a tumor the size of a grapefruit in their head and asking the doctor if they should get it checked out.

Wynton 10-03-2005 10:52 AM

Re: 150k hands graph
 
[ QUOTE ]
Bill Gates plays 3/6 hold'em.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? Wonder what his screen name is.

bnorthro 10-03-2005 11:00 AM

Re: 150k hands graph
 
Is it just me, or do the swings from hand to hand look huge? Are you really, really aggressive? It seems like there's 50BB swings regularly, with no consistency anywhere. I might consider dropping to 1/2 full or 1/2 6max and getting a smooth, consistent run going. Granted, I've only got about 25K hands, but my graphs look relatively smooth, ie no huge huge short term swings like that.

tolbiny 10-03-2005 11:01 AM

Re: 150k hands graph
 
This is easy. you moved from .5/1 to 15/30 in 150k hands, and your not that good. I am sure someone else here has said it, but you probably need to hear it a lot, drop down below 5/10. I bet if you took a poll most 10/20 players here would have spent at least 75k hands at 5-10 sh alone.

sy_or_bust 10-03-2005 11:48 AM

Re: 150k hands graph
 
2/4 ring LHE. Learn it. You should frequent the SS forum, re-read SSHE, and post many hands. Play less tables for a while, and become a winner. This is an easy game. Work your way up to 3/6 ring and contemplate 3/6 6-max or 5/10 full.

You'll get there if you work for it. Your experience shows why shortcuts suck.

Derek in NYC 10-03-2005 12:21 PM

Re: 150k hands graph
 
[ QUOTE ]
Yuck.
You want him to play 100k hands of 0.5/1?

Nobody needs to play 100k hands of 0.5/1...

[/ QUOTE ]

I recommended that he drop down and play a large number of hands at a low limit because it is clear that this guy is stepping up without any reason to believe that he is a winning player. In 150k hands, he went from .50/1.00 to 15/30. This is ridiculous. I doubt that the OP can state with any certainty, the minimum level where he is sure he is a winning player.

According to his shorthand charts:

1.1 BB/100 at .50/1.00 (11k hands)
-1.6 BB/100 at 1/2 (18k hands)
-.7 BB/100 at 3/6 (32k hands)
-.5 BB/100 at 5/10 (26k hands)
-2.6 BB/100 at 10/20 (349 hands)

If I had to guess based on a heinously small sample, I would say he can win at .50/1.00 and is a loser at all higher shorthanded limits. The external discipline of a 100k hand count will help this player much more than just "playing and posting hands."

He is clearly not prepared to play anything other than microlimits, and he should be working on his game at the lowest possible level.

DocMartin 10-03-2005 01:01 PM

Re: 150k hands graph
 
[ QUOTE ]
I guess it's firefox's fault then.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are blocking images from photobucket (probably because of someone's gay avatar). Right click OP's avatar and unblock them to see the graphs.

Willluck 10-03-2005 01:04 PM

Re: 150k hands graph
 
At least we know you aren't lying. I would probably quit, if not for life at least for a month or so.

jph0424 10-03-2005 01:16 PM

Re: 150k hands graph
 
Would you post your detailed stats? I am pretty sure you would have some obvious holes in your game we could maybe help you with.

gildwulf 10-03-2005 01:32 PM

Re: 150k hands graph
 
[ QUOTE ]
At least we know you aren't lying. I would probably quit, if not for life at least for a month or so.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope this isn't advice, because if it is it's terrible.

tansoku 10-03-2005 01:58 PM

Re: 150k hands graph
 
Looks like you are tilting really bad. That last downswing looks like full blown 'raise out of frustration' tilt. Something like -500BB in 10K hands with nary a bounce up has some bad playing in there somewhere...
Stop playing.
Go into PT, go to the preferences and filter it so you get the hands from when that last downswing started.
Go to the games tab, get all, and sort by NET from - to +.
Now replay all of your losing hands in a row.
You should be able to tell rather quickly where the problems are, or are not.
Don't start playing again until you find the leak(s).

If you find a lot of 'what was I thinking' type hands, it's tilt (obviously because you were not thinking). Next step is to determine what it takes to get you tilting, and recognize it. Going back to that particular session and replaying it might help to spot just what lead to your tilting. If it's 3 bad beats in a row, then force yourself to quit when that happens because you are far more likely to lose more by tilting than get a miracle run of cards to pull you out. If you are still thinking about how that moron rivered you 3 hands ago, you need to stop playing until you are not thinking about it. The game will be there an hour from now, and tomorrow as well...

sweetjazz 10-03-2005 02:17 PM

Re: 150k hands graph
 
Likely you are not as good as your start suggested nor as bad as your recent results suggest. However, it does look like you are a marginal winner at best and probably a break-even or slightly losing player at best in higher limits.

I don't necessarily blame you for moving up when you were running good, as it is easy to become convinced that you are a good player when your results are that good to start with. And I don't necessarily blame you for feeling frustrated now that everything seems to be going wrong.

Here's what you should do:
(1) Honestly assess whether you have made significant changes to your game after your results started to go downhill, and figure out if they have been -EV moves.

(2) Go to Small Stakes and Microlimits forums and read hand posts. Think about what advice you would give in that situation and then read what others have to say. If there is a continual difference of opinion, chances are that it is you who doesn't understand the game well enough. (On the other hand, it is okay to disagree on a small percent of the hands.)

(3) Try to determine what leaks you have in your game. Do you go on tilt easily after a few bad beats? Do you overplay weak hands? Do you underplay strong hands? Are you too loose preflop? Do you chase weak draws too far postflop?

(4) Hopefully you are playing poker as a hobby. Work on trying to play the game as best as you can, and try not to worry about the results. Worry about whether you are making the right plays on every hand. If you hit 3 straight flushes in a session but miss a lot of key value bets, chalk that down as a bad session even if you are up 50 BB. If you get outdrawn over and over by 2- and 3-outers but are making solid decisions throughout, chalk that up as a good session even if you are down 50 BB.

Poker is not easy, but it is very rewarding when you continually improve your game. You won't always see it in the short-term results, but your next 150K hands will have better results if you dedicate yourself to making improvements.

Finally, I agree with people who suggest you start out at the microlimits again. I'd start with 0.5/1 again for at least 10K (not 100K) hands. Move up a limit when you are properly bankrolled AND you feel justifiably confident that you are playing significantly better than the other players at that limit. I'd play at least 10K hands at each limit, and keep in mind that short-term results can be very deceiving. You have to be able to assess your play independent of the results over short stretches.

gildwulf 10-03-2005 02:31 PM

Re: 150k hands graph
 
[ QUOTE ]
Finally, I agree with people who suggest you start out at the microlimits again. I'd start with 0.5/1 again for at least 10K (not 100K) hands. Move up a limit when you are properly bankrolled AND you feel justifiably confident that you are playing significantly better than the other players at that limit. I'd play at least 10K hands at each limit, and keep in mind that short-term results can be very deceiving.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree with this advice. This is basically what he did...spend 10k at each limit and jump up regardless of the results because he "felt confident in his play". Also, while I agree that being results conscious is a bad idea and that short-term results don't matter much, they are a good indicator (over 20-100K hands) of whether you are a winning player or not.

What he needs is to learn discipline more than anything else. He lacks discipline and, most likely, bankroll management skills. I'm also going to go out on a limb and say he probably lacks the ability (or is simply ignoring it) to determine whether he is playing significantly better than his opponents. Honestly, even if he can beat the 10/20 right now (which I'm almost positive he can't) I wouldn't recommend him playing it.

What he needs is a kick in the ass for moving up too quickly; he needs to grind it out (from .5/1 to 5/10) in order to master patience and discipline. He needs to sit back and honestly assess his play at a comfortable level (I would say 3/6...it's easy enough but not too bankroll threatening) and have other people critique his play on a regular basis until he learns how to do it himself.

Ricardido 10-03-2005 02:34 PM

Re: 150k hands graph
 
the way you are playing .50/1 and 15/30 worries me somewhat

sweetjazz 10-03-2005 02:37 PM

Re: 150k hands graph
 
I did say he should feel justifiably confident that he is significantly better than his opponents, and I agree that he likely did not stop to think about this nearly hard enough the first time through. (I'm not set to write off the OP as lacking discipline as I have seen many good players on this forum admit that they thought the game was easier than it is before they experienced their first prolonged downswing.)

So I don't think our advice is really that different. Maybe I didn't word it right. The first time up, OP moved up because he was winning money and figured he must be playing a lot better than everyone else (though likely he was not). Now, he should move up when he finally understands how to play a lot better than everyone else at that limit. Ideally, that would be regardless of how much money he has won or lost, but obviously bankroll considerations are important too.

It has taken a long time for OP to question whether poker is as easy as he originally thought it was, but I am hopeful that he will take the chance to honestly assess that it is not and dedicate himself to mastering this tough and sometimes brutal, but ultimately rewarding, game.

gildwulf 10-03-2005 02:40 PM

Re: 150k hands graph
 
[ QUOTE ]
OP moved up because he was winning money and figured he must be playing a lot better than everyone else (though likely he was not).

[/ QUOTE ]

He was losing at 1/2 and 3/6.


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