middle pair - a plan?
 

Party Poker 3/6 Limit - 10 handed

UTG+1 (a TAG) opens, MP2 (weak, a 26/2/.5 type) cold-calls, Hero is CO as a poster and calls with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. The BB (too loose, too passive, but not excessively either one) also calls.

Flop: (4 players 8SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
BB checks, UTG+1 bets, MP calls, Hero?

What is your plan?

Re: middle pair - a plan?
 

I think folding is probably best.

You're probably behind, and your outs aren't entirely trustworthy.

The possibility of improving to an expensive second-best hand cuts into our implied odds.

I guess we could be ahead of two gutshots right now, but that seems like a lot to ask for.

Re: middle pair - a plan?
 

getting 10:1 folding has to be worse than calling. I don't really know what raising does for us here, so I think I call and check out the turn.

Re: middle pair - a plan?
 

You are getting 10:1 with 5 dirty outs. If you had Jh10h I would probably call this, given that you can continue with any K, Q, heart, 10 or J, but as it is I would generally fold. The TAG could easily have AJ or A10 meaning even if you hit you don't win, and there is a fair chance this gets raised behind you.

Sometimes discression is the better part of valour.

Re: middle pair - a plan?
 

I'd call and fold the turn UI. Little scary though, a J could give both of you two pair, but I'll still play my two pair as if it's best and raise the turn, and calling down if he three-bets.

Re: middle pair - a plan?
 

In an effort to learn myself I have to ask a question.

Why would you cold call preflop?

Could we expect a TAG UTG to raise with, AA,KK,QQ,JJ,TT,AK,KQs. Anything else is unlikely. Thus what kind of flop do we need to feel comfortable with our JT? Straight draw, TTx, JJx, maybe JTx. I would have folded preflop so I am curious for your reasoning on the call.

Once the flop hit the way it did and UTG leads into a field of 3 I would feel completely dominated here,MP already called and we have BB yet to act. Even if a J hits it could be tainted and no doubt the MP could have any thing including AT,KQ,KT etc. If I am inclined to play this hand I would test UTG with a raise and try to get rid of BB and try for a free look at the river. Under these circumstances I would fold on this flop.

Re: middle pair - a plan?
 

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I'd call and fold the turn UI. Little scary though, a J could give both of you two pair, but I'll still play my two pair as if it's best and raise the turn, and calling down if he three-bets.

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I sort of think that if we decide to proceed with this hand, it should probably bet done with the express intent that we need to fold a fair number of turns even when we hit. What will make this hand unprofitable is times we make a second-bet hand and pay off.

I think we should generally pay down if we make trips, but if we make two pair and betting goes crazy then we have to at least consider folding.

As it stands, I think I probably usually peel here but I actually kind of wish I didn't do so as often.

Re: middle pair - a plan?
 

[ QUOTE ]
In an effort to learn myself I have to ask a question.

Why would you cold call preflop?

Could we expect a TAG UTG to raise with, AA,KK,QQ,JJ,TT,AK,KQs. Anything else is unlikely. Thus what kind of flop do we need to feel comfortable with our JT? Straight draw, TTx, JJx, maybe JTx. I would have folded preflop so I am curious for your reasoning on the call.

Once the flop hit the way it did and UTG leads into a field of 3 I would feel completely dominated here,MP already called and we have BB yet to act. Even if a J hits it could be tainted and no doubt the MP could have any thing including AT,KQ,KT etc. If I am inclined to play this hand I would test UTG with a raise and try to get rid of BB and try for a free look at the river. Under these circumstances I would fold on this flop.

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He posted.

Re: middle pair - a plan?
 

[ QUOTE ]
He posted.

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Ah, sorry and thanks.

Re: middle pair - a plan?
 

fold

Re: middle pair - a plan?
 

I think calling is the worst option here. It appears to be either a fold or raise.

With 10-1 odds it could appear that calling in hopes of hitting a J or T (8-1) isn't bad, but I feel this is a weak mentality that hopes that the cards will win for us and not our play that increase our chances of winning the hand.

This hand closely mirrors the opening example of the post flop play in SSHE, which recommends raising (folding isn't a terrible play either). Although unlikely, if the TAG could release a higher pair (JJ,QQ,KK) even a fraction of the time it would make this a great play. Obviously, getting JT, QT, KT to fold would also increase our equity, although it is unlikely the TAG or passive guy would be playing this. I think raising makes the rest of the hand easier to play.

If we are 3-bet I think we should call and fold the turn UI.

Re: middle pair - a plan?
 

[ QUOTE ]
This hand closely mirrors the opening example of the post flop play in SSHE, which recommends raising (folding isn't a terrible play either).

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In that hand, Hero was first to act after the pre-flop raiser; no one had yet called the PFRs post-flop bet. This situation is quite different. We can not realistically expect to get it heads up with a raise, even if we are currently ahead, plus the chances we currently have the best hand are somewhat lower than in that example. (People seem to forget that that is an important part of the analysis in that hand.)

[ QUOTE ]
I think calling is the worst option here. It appears to be either a fold or raise.


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With that in mind, I am not sure that calling is such a bad option (although folding is clearly ok). If it is checked to us on the turn, we can bet there, or if it goes bet, fold to us, then we can consider raising the turn depending on exactly what we think of PFR. At least, that is my current thinking.

For what it is worth, though, I did raise it on the flop and both the blind and the PFR folded. The cold-caller went to the end with his gutshot draw, and MHIG. I now feel that this was misplaced aggression on my part.

Re: middle pair - a plan?
 

[ QUOTE ]
For what it is worth, though, I did raise it on the flop and both the blind and the PFR folded. The cold-caller went to the end with his gutshot draw, and MHIG. I now feel that this was misplaced aggression on my part.

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Honestly, I think this is the only combination of hands that this play works with. If the PFR folded on the flop after betting, I think its pretty clear he folded a high pocket pair counting on at least the caller or you to have the ace. But that's a hell of a parlay--he didn't have an ace, the caller didn't either, you raised, and he gave credit for the ace. Call, fold UI sounds best to me, but I'd listen to fold the flop as well. Your insticts are right, in general this play would not work.

Re: middle pair - a plan?
 

does anyone fold preflop or is that not the best with the cold caller in there? I would call because you are getting 10-1 with about 5 outs . If you catch the 2 tens i think u r goot. the J's are scary so we discount. backdoor straight might split. i think peeling and folding is close after this. crap lets go with Nick on this and fold because you dont want to draw to the 2nd best hand.

Re: middle pair - a plan?
 

First, you did notice that I am a poster here, right? (Without that, this is a trivial fold.)

I am not opposed to folding pre-flop. I tend to be fairly loose as a poster though. Probably I am projecting because I am extremely aggressive when another player has posted. My raising range there (in his position) would be any hand I would chose to play, and that range would actually be a bit larger than normal. I tend to assign the same thinking to anyone I perceive as a thinking player. This is probably not a reasonable assumption, but there it is. (Also notice that this is quite a bit better than making the same call in the BB because of our superior position throughout the hand.)

Re: middle pair - a plan?
 

[ QUOTE ]
getting 10:1 folding has to be worse than calling. I don't really know what raising does for us here, so I think I call and check out the turn.

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what outs are we expecting to hit here?

Re: middle pair - a plan?
 

[ QUOTE ]
First, you did notice that I am a poster here, right? (Without that, this is a trivial fold.)

I am not opposed to folding pre-flop. I tend to be fairly loose as a poster though. Probably I am projecting because I am extremely aggressive when another player has posted. My raising range there (in his position) would be any hand I would chose to play, and that range would actually be a bit larger than normal. I tend to assign the same thinking to anyone I perceive as a thinking player. This is probably not a reasonable assumption, but there it is. (Also notice that this is quite a bit better than making the same call in the BB because of our superior position throughout the hand.)

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Being the poster is moot on whether or not it is a good idea to call one more with JTo. There was a thread a few months back on a similar on whether to call one raise in a similar situation out of the BB. The concensus there was that if was for the most part a clear fold. The reasons concluded were that JTo is so marginal you often go too far in the hand when you flop a marginal draw or another marginal made hand. The only advantage you have in this hand is position.

I think in most cases I would be folding pre-flop without any other information on the people who have acted or who remain to act in the hand.

I also believe that you should fold on the flop.