AJo 15/30 hand
 

reads: HJ is a lagtard (49/18/2.5 through 60 hands) and CO is an idiot (45/8/1.7 through 100 hands).

Good, bad, or meh on the flop?

Party Poker 15.00/30.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(10 handed)</font> link

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 caps</font>, CO calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (13.67 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Hero calls.

Re: AJo 15/30 hand
 

i think its pretty bad.
You have the 4 ten outs. Than 1 for the backdoor flush. But can you give yourself any other outs? Your only getting ~8.5-1 on your $$. Thats close but your not closing the action here and may have to pay 1 or 2 more bets on the flop.

Re: AJo 15/30 hand
 

Even if I were closing the action, I'd have a hard time calling that. Since there's a high possibility of it getting 3-bet or even capped, I'd say it's an easy fold.

Re: AJo 15/30 hand
 

You played with MP3, so maybe you thought it was likely he wouldn't jam the flop, but his numbers say otherwise. If you felt he was only going to call, I think the call is ok.

- Jim

Re: AJo 15/30 hand
 

I think a call seems fine. At worst you are getting 13.6+4+4=21.6, 4:21.6 = 1:5.4 on the flop. With 5 outs you are 1:3.9 on making your hand. I'd throw some chips in...maybe a bad idea?

-mike

Re: AJo 15/30 hand
 

I think the flop call is close, because since they both likely have a hand, should you hit your gutshot your implied odds are huge. Also, if you run into a flush draw, you have another chance to hit the gutshot.

Re: AJo 15/30 hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
At worst you are getting 13.6+4+4=21.6, 4:21.6 = 1:5.4 on the flop. With 5 outs you are 1:3.9 on making your hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
This looks like pretty good analysis to me, except that 2 ruuning clubs is significantly less than 1 full "out", no? especially since the 10c would be double counted and the 5c is potential disaster... On the other hand, 5.4/1 pot odds is worst case scenario. If 3 bet doesn't come you're up to 8.8/1 Seems like odds for call are definitely there to me, and that's not counting the off chance that hand less than nuts eeks out a win...

Re: AJo 15/30 hand
 

Backdoor flush is 1.5 outs if you intend to give up on turn should you not run into the flush draw

Re: AJo 15/30 hand
 

I don't know I think I let this go on the flop. Even lag tards and idiots get hands sometimes. Not to mention it could come back capped to you and then you are really hatin it.

SGS

Re: AJo 15/30 hand
 

I'd call getting close to 8-1. Though there is a possibility that this flop might get capped I'll still call it. We have 4 outs for a gutshot and a extra 1 for the backdoor flush. Both draws are to the nuts though we still need to be concerned if the board pairs cause he might have a big pair. I don't think we should be scared of the flush draw but it should still be noted.

On the turn the pot + implied odds will be large enough to try and hit the gutshot. What really concerns me here is when someone raises after you call because this change the odds your getting. If the turn card doesn't help the board, smooth call. If the PFR raises after you call then your surely behind against two-pair or a set.

Re: AJo 15/30 hand
 

I think I prefer a 3bet to a call in this situation.

Not that I think either is the best move.

Re: AJo 15/30 hand
 

would your coldcall scare the crap out of these guys w/o a monster? i know i rarely coldcall and when i do some players take notice and slow down. if this is not the case your current odds are not usually the odds you will effectively be getting, but you know this. to make this play against this guy you must be very sure of the implied odds and getting paid off if you hit. given the AF of Hijack and CO i think this will be the case. i think the coldcall is okay but i would HATE to have to call one or two more; you will likely have odds to call the turn as well so see what happens by the river. a 3 bet here would likely come back capped and NOT earn you a free card so it would be bad IMO as i doubt you have the equity 3 way to profitably put that much money into the pot at this point.

Re: AJo 15/30 hand
 

I hate this play. I think the 3-bet is pretty bad, but if your read told you these guys would raise or call with worse hands than your holding fine. I think you can lay down preflop without losing any value here.

The flop is very bad. The action was capped preflop which had to tell you you were not best. There is no way you have odds to call the two bets on the flop. Getting about 8 to 1 with a gutshot and a backdoor flush draw is not even close. Factor in the times that you get there on the straight and lost to a boat or flush your odds have decreased further.

Regardless of how bad the players are, don't let them force you into making these kinds of mistakes. The idea of 3-betting this flop is torrential spewage of the highest order. Even the worst players don't usually cap preflop without something that is surely ahead of your holding here. The possibility of this flop getting reraised or capped is highly likely. fold preflop or fold the flop. Standard.

Re: AJo 15/30 hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
i think its pretty bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

no thinking required its out right terrible, what do you want to hit except the 10 here anyway or a runing flush. I don't understand how your calling 2 cold here with these rags. Fold and don't look back

Re: AJo 15/30 hand
 

The problem with lagtards is that they love color and will charge into the breach with any and all paint cards. His pf cap supports that read IMO. His bet and CO's raise lead me to believe your looking at paint that hit MP3, and perhaps a slick or SF draw from either player. This situation would only give you three clean outs (non-club tens).

In this hand, you have allowed yourself to be put into the squeeze by a notoriously troublesome hand that didn't hit, principally because you had an idiot in your sights, and you don't want to let him go. I think it is reasonable to mark him as your man, but you have to isolate him after the flop if your hand is vulnerable, or you're likely playing for negative value.

Re: AJo 15/30 hand
 

Bad.