180SnG, TPTK Facing Bet On Flop
 

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) converter

MP1 (t1790)
MP2 (t950)
Hero (t1470)
CO (t1160)
Button (t1280)
SB (t1295)
BB (t2025)
UTG (t2320)
UTG+1 (t1210)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls t30, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t120</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls t105, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls t90.

Flop: (t390) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets t120</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ???</font>

It's early in the tournament, and I have no good reads.

MP2's mini-bet on the flop seems to want some action and says two-pair or set to me.

Folding seems very weak/tight. Calling gives the SB good drawing odds and MP2 a free card if he doens't have me beat. But if I raise t400-500 and get a reraise from MP2, I will be forced to call due to his stack size and the odds the pot is giving me.

What is my best play here?

Re: 180SnG, TPTK Facing Bet On Flop
 

i'd raise and be content to play for your stack.

Re: 180SnG, TPTK Facing Bet On Flop
 

Key words: "early in the tournament." This is where you see atrocious play. I'd bet everything. Take out a second mortgage, use little Billy's college fund, put the rent money in the pot, throw in the wedding ring also.

At this stage I'm 99.9999% sure you are ahead.

Re: 180SnG, TPTK Facing Bet On Flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
MP2's mini-bet on the flop seems to want some action and says two-pair or set to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Eh? It could as easily say a lone T, a weak A, AQ, AJ, JQ, 78 or a pure bluff thinking the ace missed you (most unlikely but still possible early in this tourney).

I think you may be a little results oriented in this thinking...

Re: 180SnG, TPTK Facing Bet On Flop
 

First of all, folding is not an option.

He could have :

1- 2 Pairs
2- Set
3- Str8 Draw
4 - Air

If he has you beat (1 or 2), let's say you call and SB folds. The pot will be 390 + 120*2 = 630. He will have 710 left, if he wants to play his stack he only have to bet 300 on the turn and 410 on the river, so you will play for his stack. Option 1, you have 3 or 5 outs. Option 2 you need runner-runner, but would he play 99 or 10-10 like this, I don't think so.

If you have him beat and he has KQ, you have to charge him to draw so you have to raise.

If he has air, you shouldn't have anything more from him.

So I would raise to 400-450 or so...

I would not worry about the SB, he checked and he will face a raise/re-raise.

Re: 180SnG, TPTK Facing Bet On Flop
 

Looks to me like a weak A or middle pair trying to take down the pot without loosing too much. Raise pot, and let him know hes playing for his whole stack. Way too many donkeys in these tourneys to slow down.

Re: 180SnG, TPTK Facing Bet On Flop
 

It really helps to know how MP2 burned off the first third of his stack here. If he's the average idiot in one of these he's got a worse ace (or less) a lot of the time. Either way I think you need to raise, the question will be what to do if he calls/re-raises.

Re: 180SnG, TPTK Facing Bet On Flop
 

why do you think his bet indicates strength? 2 pair or set???? He could simply have an Ace and be testing you to see if you had a middlish pair. That being said, you may still want to proceed with caution. I would throw out a reraise (not 400-500, maybe 240))and see how he responds, if he pushes or re-reraises then I may consider letting go of the hand. More times than not, i go broke though.

You said early in a tourny, what kind of tourney? Micro's = donkfest.

Re: 180SnG, TPTK Facing Bet On Flop
 

After the 1/3 pot bet I put him on AT and that's what he showed me.

Even though my instinct wound up being correct, there was no way I was folding or calling. I just didn't like the raise because it left me with no options to a reraise all-in. I did think about a small raise to something like T240 with the intention of folding to an all-in, but this also seemed way too weak.

I guess I'll run into a donkey the next time.

Re: 180SnG, TPTK Facing Bet On Flop
 

Raise and call a push.

His limp-call PF seems pretty weak, weak ace, QJ, 78s, maybe even JT. Don't know if he's bad enough to open limp with 99 or TT.

Your hand is too good to fold and too vulnerable to give a cheap turn. Raise to 400-500

Re: 180SnG, TPTK Facing Bet On Flop
 

Why can't you fold if you make a 3x raise of villian and he then pushes. You'll still have T1000 in chips left, which is far from being desperate. You will now have new information
based on villian's repsonse of you raise to hopefully make
a better choice.

Bruce

Re: 180SnG, TPTK Facing Bet On Flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why can't you fold if you make a 3x raise of villian and he then pushes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because of the words "early in the tournament." T2o will push. I've seen it so many times.

Re: 180SnG, TPTK Facing Bet On Flop
 

As the others have said, since it's early in the tournament im not folding this one. I have a really nice chance at doubling up here or I go out early. Big deal. I take the gamble (if it's even is a gamble...)

Re: 180SnG, TPTK Facing Bet On Flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why can't you fold if you make a 3x raise of villian and he then pushes. You'll still have T1000 in chips left, which is far from being desperate. You will now have new information
based on villian's repsonse of you raise to hopefully make
a better choice.

Bruce

[/ QUOTE ]

If I raise t400 and he goes all-in, I have to call t450 to win a t2290 pot, and I need a 20% chance to win to make the call.

If he has 2 pair my chances are ~15%, and I almost have the odds for a call.

If he has a set, my chances are ~3%

But if he has something like AQ or KT, then my chances are 85%.

It doesn't take many of those dominated hands to make up for the two-pair/set possibilities.

I think the call of the reraise all-in is a must.

Re: 180SnG, TPTK Facing Bet On Flop
 

Mathematically a call is very attractive.

But if you look at most of the hands he'll push with, you're
way behind most of them. The only hand you can beat is a smaller Ace.

How you play your hand ultimately boils down to your read
of villian. Absent a read I think if you raise and he pushes you're going to lose more than 80% of the time.
I very well may let this one go and live to fight another
battle.

Bruce

Re: 180SnG, TPTK Facing Bet On Flop
 

And for every time T2o pushes AT will push ten more times.

Bruce

Re: 180SnG, TPTK Facing Bet On Flop
 

Can't argue with your logic, but on the flip side, if you can't fold TPTK early in a tournament you're going to be busting out quite a bit in the first few levels.

Bruce

Re: 180SnG, TPTK Facing Bet On Flop
 

I'm getting all in and pissed when he shows me A9, A10. It's cool...Theres another train leaving the station in a few minutes. I'll be on it

Re: 180SnG, TPTK Facing Bet On Flop
 

His flop bet looks to me like he either has a weaker ace or JQ, trying to get a cheap turn/river/showdown. In this tournament players are more likely to c/r 2pr or better on a flop like this, and lead out with weaker hands. I'd raise to 450 or 500 or so, and only consider folding if SB pushes. Insta-call a push from MP2.

Re: 180SnG, TPTK Facing Bet On Flop
 

Yea but in this case, I got TPTK and he can have a weak ace here. This situation don't occur that often and if I had TPGK with let's say Q10 on a 10-7-4 board I may let that go if the action is to much. I have a hard time folding TPTK this early when I think I am ahead at least 50% of the time, I take the gamble here.

Re: 180SnG, TPTK Facing Bet On Flop
 

Push.

Re: 180SnG, TPTK Facing Bet On Flop
 

Raise to 500, call any push. Push on the turn if he just calls your raise.

You are way ahead most of the time. Most likely his bet is a probe bet. He wants to see if you really have an ace or maybe he has a weaker ace. 80% of the time, I reraise. 20% of the time I will just flat call here and then push on the turn when he bets again. Yes it is risky, but early in these tourneys (Stars 180s) it can be a good way to pick up chips. By calling the flop, pushing the turn, you deny him the info he wanted with the probe bet, and you pot commit him and handcuff him to a weaker hand. Again, not my typical play, but I do it against guys like this if I percieve him as loose.

Re: 180SnG, TPTK Facing Bet On Flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
Can't argue with your logic, but on the flip side, if you can't fold TPTK early in a tournament you're going to be busting out quite a bit in the first few levels.

Bruce

[/ QUOTE ]

that's true, but you're also going to double up a lot.

Re: 180SnG, TPTK Facing Bet On Flop
 

I would re-raise and be fine with getting it all in vs. the small blind, if MP2 wants to push I'm more likely to give him credit and toss it.

Does anyone like just limping along pre-flop? I don't like raising here because of the large range of hands that come back and call. Now I feel married to my AK when an A hits. If I limped and things get harry I can get out without too much harm.

Re: 180SnG, TPTK Facing Bet On Flop
 

This is a clear raise situation. Hard to win these things playing scared early and someone has to pick up the dead money so it mine as well be you. I would raise 100% of the time and from the size of MP2 stack size it doesn't appear he's playing very solid.

John

Re: 180SnG, TPTK Facing Bet On Flop
 

Looks like a standard probe bet from MP2. Probably a weak ace, but maybe a ten. If he flopped 2 pair or a set I would think he would most likely go for the check raise here as he would most likely expect you to make a continuation bet. I would raise here and solidly define your hand strength in relation to the others. I would raise somewhere from 600-800, and see if anyone plays with you. Let MP2 know he will have to commit all of his chips to see another card.