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GENIUS IDEA
Take all your extra money from poker, go play BJ with it. If you lose, write it off as a deduction. Wouldn't this be +EV?
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Re: GENIUS IDEA
I guess that was what I was getting at with my Tax Q post, but you would want a number of reputable witnesses to confirm that you were at the table and those were your losses. A tournament receipt is easier. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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Re: GENIUS IDEA
I thought of this too -- well, let's work it out:
Assumption: BJ is 52 / 48 % in house's favor. You have $100,000 in annual poker profits, on which the tax, for argument's sake, is $39,000. Hypo A Simply pay the tax. EV: +$61,000 Hypo B You bet the entire $100,000 on a single hand (discounts possibility of split / double-down) with 48% chance of winning. EV if you win: +$200,000 >> again pay 39% tax, so $122,000 EV if you lose: $0. Overall EV of placing the bet = (122K x .48) + (0 x .52) = $58,560. So no, it's still not worth it. The illusion that initially makes it SEEM like +EV is that you view the taxes you have to pay as a LOSS at the end of the year. Which is theoretically wrong...you really should view the tax you owe as accumulating on your winnings as soon as you post them. |
Re: GENIUS IDEA
With taxes from poker - say i win 1 big tourny for 225k. So do i pay taxes on that 225k right then and there or do I pay my end of year winnings?
So say im a big fish and dump my money at 50/100nl and lose 200k - do i pay on just the 25k? |
Re: GENIUS IDEA
Ok... GENIUS IDEA #2 - microwave reese's peanut butter cups.
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Re: GENIUS IDEA
Ok... that was a bad idea. The peanut butter does not melt as expected.
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Re: GENIUS IDEA
without responding to the rest of the sillyness of teddy-fbi's idea:
Blackjack typically breaks-down to something like this (for the non-card-counter) 42% - win 49% - loss 9% - push It gets to be closer to a -1.5 or 2% disadvantage game for the player because of doubling-down and splitting (presumably when it's +EV...although this isn't always the case for the vast majority of players) and from the 3:2 pay-off on blackjack. If you really were to bet all of your money on onew hand then you would be losing out on a lot of EV by denying yourself the opportunity to double-down or split when the opportunity were to arrive. Also: it's not that hard to learn how the basics of counting-cards and make blackjack pretty much a break-even game with minimal effort (more complicated for certain games including single-deck 6:5-payoff games and the continuous-auto-shuffler games where you're almost always being dealt from the top of the shoe) |
Re: GENIUS IDEA
[ QUOTE ]
Ok... that was a bad idea. The peanut butter does not melt as expected. [/ QUOTE ] i don't know why, but this made me smile. |
Re: GENIUS IDEA
Miscounting cards can actually put you in a worse situation that just playing normally.
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Re: GENIUS IDEA
Maybe if you were slightly above a high tax bracket, you could force yourself to write off a loss to avoid the extra taxes. But I know nothing about anything.
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Re: GENIUS IDEA
Admittedly, many of my assumptions were stupid; I just didn't have the time to work out all the intricacies.
The fact remains that this is not a +EV idea. |
Re: GENIUS IDEA
i have thought about this before, only my thought is to do it live
play in the casino for X hrs -- get comped for it, etc, important key is to have the casino track your play. maybe count cards, maybe not, whatever regardless of what happens, the loss reported to IRS ends up being worse than your expected loss for X hrs but within like 1-1.5 std dev (and X hrs at flat bet of Y is confirmable by IRS with casino?) ??? |
Re: GENIUS IDEA
[ QUOTE ]
play in the casino for X hrs -- get comped for it, etc, important key is to have the casino track your play. [/ QUOTE ] That way you can pay taxes on all of your comps, that rules. |
Re: GENIUS IDEA
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] play in the casino for X hrs -- get comped for it, etc, important key is to have the casino track your play. [/ QUOTE ] That way you can pay taxes on all of your comps, that rules. [/ QUOTE ] comps < expected loss or do you have something worthwhile to add |
Re: GENIUS IDEA
[ QUOTE ]
Maybe if you were slightly above a high tax bracket, you could force yourself to write off a loss to avoid the extra taxes. But I know nothing about anything. [/ QUOTE ] FYI higher tax bracket doesn't mean all of your income gets taxed at a higher rate, just the part that's above the bracket threshold. That's why it doesn't make sense to "write off a loss to avoid the extra taxes". |
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