Has he got quads?
 

Ultimate Bet 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter


The river concerned me. I 3bet PF and now he's capping the turn with 3 Ts showing. What's the best way to go from here?


Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP1 calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 caps</font>, Hero calls.

River: (12.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero ?

Villain is 22/7/1.2 9K hands

Re: Has he got quads?
 

cap it until your fingers bleed.

Re: Has he got quads?
 

He is more likely to have AA or QQ or even 88 than to have slow played his trips on flop.

Re: Has he got quads?
 

Any stats on the guy? The only 10 hand I can see someone raise that early in full ring is A10s or 1010 (impossible).

I say cap it and tip your hat if he has the quads. Its more likly he doesnt and you don't want to lose value.

Re: Has he got quads?
 

grunch:

In absence of a read Ill assume a reasonable player.

I bet that river and call a raise.

Based on action the only hand that i am worried about here is A10s and maybe A10os but that would be MUBS. We beat everthing else in his range raise but not capping preflop.

nh

Edit: can I change my answer....cap it.....just calling a raise would be MUBS wouldnt it? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] Seriously though, I might start giving just a little credit to a really passive player after a river raise but cap anyways and bust his 8s.

Re: Has he got quads?
 

I'd cap the river. Raising in MP, I can see him on a variety of high pairs, including AA and QQ. Once it's heads-up PF, maybe he slowed down to trap. By the turn, he can figure he's got the best boat...and maybe he does at that point.

2nd nut...if you're on the short end, oh well...

Re: Has he got quads?
 

I cap this one, if he got quads, im paying him off but I except the chips to go to me.

Re: Has he got quads?
 

I bet/call.

And I don't think it's MUBs.

Re: Has he got quads?
 

If his range is AT, AA, QQ he's actually more likely not to have AT.

6 ways to have AA.
6 ways to have QQ.
4 ways to have AT.

You are ahead 5/8 times. Cap the river, he's gonna raise with any boat and he likes TTTAA too much to call.

Re: Has he got quads?
 

Here is a similar hand I had a few days ago.

I think my action on the river should be a strong indication of your action.


Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. UTG+2 posts a blind of $1. MP2 posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 (poster) calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (15 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls.

Turn: (9.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls, BB calls.

River: (13.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, CO folds, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 caps</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 21.50 BB

Re: Has he got quads?
 

[ QUOTE ]
If his range is AT, AA, QQ he's actually more likely not to have AT.

6 ways to have AA.
6 ways to have QQ.
4 ways to have AT.

You are ahead 5/8 times. Cap the river, he's gonna raise with any boat and he likes TTTAA too much to call.

[/ QUOTE ]



IMO. Bayesian analysis is used too often in situations like these incorrectly. You should use this method of analysis when all of his holdings, when weighted based on previous actions, are equally likely. You can then use Bayesian to see which holding is his most likely due to distribution.

In this case, when he raises the river, I don't think the options are equally weighted.

When he raises after the King falls on the river, I think we can discount QQ heavily. And I think that you can limit his holdings to AA and AT. Without a preflop cap I'm inclined to think that AT is actually favourite; not the other way around.

Re: Has he got quads?
 

I dont think he has quads, if he did he probably would have raise you on the flop. Probably has tens full of eights. BET the river.

Re: Has he got quads?
 

In my opinion, the right answer to the question "Has he got quads?" is pretty much always no. Sure, once in a while he does and you happily pay him off. After all, quads deserves to win. But in all the rest of the cases, you win. Turn by turn...

Preflop: Standard

Flop: Good bet. His calling doesn't really tell you much. I'm guessing at that point that he's either an idiot, or he's slow-playing ATs, A8s (very unlikely with 22 vpip), AA, KK, QQ, JJ. You're ahead to everything but the AA and ATs. Pokerstove puts you ahead here 75% of the time.

Turn: Again, good call. I'd cap this every day and twice on sunday. Per pokerstove, you're winning 83% of the time here. I have to assume he's playing AA, QQ, JJ at this point -- either that or we go back to the idiot hypothesis. A distant voice in my mind would be asking whether he had the last ten, but I'd quickly silence that thought and move on.

River: Cap cap cap. At this point, pokerstove is putting you on the favorite 98% of the time. Unless you have a STRONG read on this guy that he is super-tight and weak, then you need to cap. And frankly, I don't see how a read could ever be that good.

You didn't tell us how it ended, but I would've bet the river. If he raised, I'd put him on AA. If he called, I'd assume he showed QQ,JJ,ATs. Alternately, he's got a beer in his hand.

Re: Has he got quads?
 

At what point do hand probabilities yield to the fact that only certain hands will be played with such strength? I'm not capping this river, because what hands do you beat? I can only guess QQ or JJ and he's probably not capping you on the river with them. I'd just bet/call this river, maybe that's unwise, apparently some of you think so.

Err, edit: I forgot the river was a king, so you're only behind quads, right? I'd definitely 3-bet and rue the day if he caps and shows me quads. But if you didn't improve your boat on the river, I think I'd play it the same. Especially since the river is a K, do you think he's playing so strong with just QQ or JJ?

Re: Has he got quads?
 

Best play (not in terms of EV)

C/C &gt; cr/f &gt; b/f &gt; b/3 &gt;&gt; cr/c &gt; b/c

In terms of EV it is C/C &gt;&gt; b/f &gt; cr/f &gt; b/c &gt; cr/c &gt;&gt; b/3

[censored] an a man. Why does everyone want to cap this thing? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Edit - Capping here [censored] sucks. The only hand we pulled ahead of on this river is AA. Tens full of eights was never a real threat given what he should be raising PF with. If he gives you any action at all, you are looking at quads. If he doesn't have it, he will call the river (even more so now that hands like JJ don't look so good).

Re: Has he got quads?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Edit - Capping here [censored] sucks. The only hand we pulled ahead of on this river is AA. Tens full of eights was never a real threat given what he should be raising PF with. If he gives you any action at all, you are looking at quads. If he doesn't have it, he will call the river (even more so now that hands like JJ don't look so good).

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. QQ and JJ slows most players down on the turn. I don't think any good player caps these hands so they're out based on the action. And I don't think anyone mentioned that it's not necessarily just A 10 we're worried about. I think someone could be getting creative with something like K 10s.

Re: Has he got quads?
 

[ QUOTE ]
In my opinion, the right answer to the question "Has he got quads?" is pretty much always no.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm going to have to say that it's very dangerous to think this way. In fact, I tend to believe the opposite. When the flop comes, I really have to stop and consider what my opponent is calling with. I always think about why my opponent is calling or raising, and in the case of this flop, someone playing a 10 is very likely. I'm not surprised to see quads just because it's an unlikely hand to have when the hand begins.

You also have to think about the hand your opponent can put you on. In terms of capping - in the case of my opponenet's 8 8 or A A here (the only hands we beat), my opponenent should probably be hesitant to raise with these holdings based on the action on the turn and facing a bet in front. 88 would probably have to assume my AA to raise (with 10 - x as a possibility - and why would I be this crazy with A A anyway?), and my opponenet's AA has to worry about all kinds of different hands. Because of this, with my bet in front, I think I'm definately facing quads if raised so why bet, and even worse - 3 bet?

Re: Has he got quads?
 

I think that you must cap. He obviously has a pair down and there is only one pair down that has you beat here.

The only hand with a ten that he possibly has is A10 and that is just not likely enough to warrant fear.

Re: Has he got quads?
 

Now I have a read here as "Villain is 22/7/1.2 9K hands" Im flip flopping back to my original answer with A10s definitely in his PFR but not capping range. His actions so far coupled with that AF make quads a possibility...I have MUBS about MUBS [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Anyways, and more importantly, I think that for me to spend any more time thinking about this hand is wasted energy as this situation wont occur often enough for it to be a big leak.

ps Shillx, your post was golden as always....nh

Re: Has he got quads?
 

I agree with Kwaz. You have more information than just the odds to work with here. Use ALL your information.

Re: Has he got quads?
 

Thanks for all the replies.

I'm ashamed to say that I saw MUB. I wussed out and checked the river. I promise to never do that again in a similar situation.

Even though I played it incorrectly, I probably got an extra BB by checking.

Ultimate Bet 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP1 calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 caps</font>, Hero calls.

River: (12.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14.25 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Hero has Kc Kd (full house, kings full of tens).
MP1 has Jd Ac (three of a kind, tens).
Outcome: Hero wins 14.25 BB. </font>

Re: Has he got quads?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for all the replies.

I'm ashamed to say that I saw MUB. I wussed out and checked the river. I promise to never do that again in a similar situation.


[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't be; I think capping the river is pretty crazy. This is one of those situations where you shouldn't bet if you can't 3-bet, because if you check you'll get a bet from him either way but if you bet you'll pay 2 bets when you're behind or get 1 when you're ahead. Nice hand IMO.

Re: Has he got quads?
 

Hahaha, the hell? Pure tilt on his part or what?

Re: Has he got quads?
 

This isn't uncommon in my experience. I think some of the posters here are used to playing at higher limits, because I see people do this kind of thing much more often than I see quads.

A decent player might fold JJ or QQ, but a typical micro player is likely to call or raise with many hands. The likelihood of a player at 1/2 paying you off (or capping) on the river with an inferior hand seems much greater than the likelihood of his having quads.

Re: Has he got quads?
 

Grunch

I bet the souls of my children on this hand.

Re: Has he got quads?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I bet/call.

And I don't think it's MUBs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Same but a part of me wants to check/call this.

This isn't MUBS. He could easily have a T but he could have 99/JJ here also

Re: Has he got quads?
 

This was a little bit tricky. First question: What hands could he have raised with pf? Think the only possible hand that contains a ten is AT (TT impossible). This hand makes perfect sense on both flop and turn. Waiting to raise to the turn with trips is common. But he can also have a pocket pair AA-88. Or maybe A8s. Since u beat all these hands a bet seems tempting.

But I´m really not sure about this one. By the stats he seems like an ok player. He probably wouldn´t cap the turn with something like JJ or 99 fearing a larger pocket pair. And with AA-QQ players often cap pf. Still there are only four possible hands that beats u. I would bet once!