Hillary for president at 6:1
 

I found Hillary at +600 for being president next term, and after going through online and seeing a bunch of stuff and what people think about her chances of running and so on and so forth, I really think this might be a good bet. But I don't know exactly what goes into running and winning and how likely it is that something will make her not run, or not win (though if she runs, I can't imagine she won't win). Anybody who is good with props have any advice on Hillary at +600? I think it's +EV, but I don't have much experience in getting a true value for this type of thing.

Re: Hillary for president at 6:1
 

you might want to post this in sports betting.

Re: Hillary for president at 6:1
 

It could be good value. Where'd you find this?

Re: Hillary for president at 6:1
 

You should only take this bet so that you can lay it off with better odds immediately following the Democratic convevtion. Her true odds of ever winning are probably closer to 15 to 1. Also you need to be sure there is no action if she doesn't even run or loses the Democratic nomination.

Re: Hillary for president at 6:1
 

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You should only take this bet so that you can lay it off with better odds immediately following the Democratic convevtion. Her true odds of ever winning are probably closer to 15 to 1. Also you need to be sure there is no action if she doesn't even run or loses the Democratic nomination.

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Her true odds are probably 30:1, she's not a bad candidate but equality hasn't come that far, being a woman is a huge handicap.

Re: Hillary for president at 6:1
 

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Also you need to be sure there is no action if she doesn't even run or loses the Democratic nomination.

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LOL, I guarantee all bets have action regardless.

Jeff

Re: Hillary for president at 6:1
 

I give it 10:1 that Barrack Obama wins it in 2012.

Re: Hillary for president at 6:1
 

Sounds to me like the big winner here is the bookie, who can sell both sides of this bet today and then hold your money interest free for three full years.

As for the actual odds...6:1 is about where I'd expect her chances to be if she actually gets the nomination and is up against any of the usual male republican suspects.

Re: Hillary for president at 6:1
 

My analysis:

At Pinnacle, she's +109 to get the nomination, and the Democrats are -106 to win the election. (I'm going to be sort of thinking of these as +100 each because I'm doing the calculations in my head.)

Now we can't just multiply probabilities and conclude she's about 3-1 to win the presidency, because the two events are not independent. However, if 6-1 is a fair price, then it means Hillary is about 30% to win the presidency if nominated. (50% x 30% = 15% which is about 6-1.)

Then, because the Dems are -106 to win the presidency, this means non-Hillary Dems must have around a 70% chance of winning the presidency if nominated.

If you think other Democrats would actually be this much stronger than Hillary, it's a bad bet. If you don't think so, then it's a good bet.

Re: Hillary for president at 6:1
 

I'd fade that bet, myself. I see her as a double-digit dog.

Re: Hillary for president at 6:1
 

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Her true odds are probably 30:1, she's not a bad candidate but equality hasn't come that far, being a woman is a huge handicap.

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Agreed. I think there is a pretty significant percentage of people who simply will not vote for a woman. I don't have a clue how to estimate the size though. I was thinking in the 5-10% range. What do you guys think?

In any case, this is a pretty huge headstart for the republican.

Re: Hillary for president at 6:1
 

She could win the Democratic nomination, but would have masssive trouble in the general election.

Gore carried NY by 19% more than Hillary did in 2000.

If Hillary ran nationwide and got even a fraction less than Gore did......

Re: Hillary for president at 6:1
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You should only take this bet so that you can lay it off with better odds immediately following the Democratic convevtion. Her true odds of ever winning are probably closer to 15 to 1. Also you need to be sure there is no action if she doesn't even run or loses the Democratic nomination.

[/ QUOTE ]

Her true odds are probably 30:1, she's not a bad candidate but equality hasn't come that far, being a woman is a huge handicap.

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I disagree somewhat. In recent years, female candidates for Senate have been overwhelmingly successful when they've run (in other words - there aren't that many female Senators, but the relatively few female candidates for Senate have been extremely successful). Of course, running for president is a different animal, and may not be quite as kind since it'll be the first time a woman has seriously run for the office. It's a handicap, but a relatively small one, especially considering that the overwhelming majority of people who still wouldn't vote for a female candidate (and that group is a fairly small percentage of the population - 25% at most) wouldn't vote for a Democrat either.

Her larger problem comes from the fact that there are a large than usual number of people who specifically won't vote for her. There's always a large section of the country who won't vote for any given candidate, but the anti-Hillary vote is larger than usual given how much she's been demonized over the years.

All that said, if she runs in 2008, which looks likely, she'll be the favorite to win the Democratic nomination - not in absolute terms, but over any other candidate out there. If she gets the nomination, I don't think she's any worse than 35-40% to win the general election. I have a feeling that if you did research and plugged the numbers in, you'd come out with a little less than the value you needed at 6-1. 10-1 and I'd take it.

Re: Hillary for president at 6:1
 

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I have a feeling that if you did research and plugged the numbers in, you'd come out with a little less than the value you needed at 6-1. 10-1 and I'd take it.

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Dude, I DID plug numbers in. Check my post. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Hillary for president at 6:1
 

Hillary for President is a conservative wet-dream, not anything resembling reality. I personally don't believe she will be nominated, but if she is it's a SURE loss in the general election, for the personal-popularity reasons OrangeKing articulated.

I wouldn't touch this bet at 20:1.

Re: Hillary for president at 6:1
 

Obviously Republicans are going to vote for the Republican candidate and Democrats are going to vote for their candidate (even if it is Hillary). The poor approval rating of the current administration suggests that the set of swing voters has grown. Of the population of swing voters, the majority disaprove of Bush and the majority are women. Hillary will take this portion of the swing vote. The portion of the swing vote she wont take is the portion that wont vote for her just because shes a woman (obviously the minority).

If nominated she could take the general election, based on the fact that Bush's approval rating is astoundingly low.

Re: Hillary for president at 6:1
 

odds are 10,000 to 1 that i'd vote for a woman to be president.

Re: Hillary for president at 6:1
 

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odds are 10,000 to 1 that half the u.s. would ever vote for a woman to be president.

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