Ditch this draw or play?
 

Early in the PP 40k Guarantee. 10/15

Hero is dealth T7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on the button.

1 fold, donk utg(~750) min raises to t30, utg+2(~800) calls, an mp player calls, hero calls t30 and the blinds come along.

Pot = t180

Flop comes: Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

blinds check, utg bets t15, utg+2 raises to t200 all the action folds to me...

Do I have to let this go? I figure I'm about even against his range.

What do you guys think?

Thanks-

Re: Ditch this draw or play?
 

Don't think you mentioned how much you have, but i think i'd push here.. still have some FE, probably favorite to win..

Re: Ditch this draw or play?
 

sorry, I have raiser covered by t300.

Re: Ditch this draw or play?
 

I don't think I'd be willing to back this particular hand with my whole stack since none of your draws are all that great... meaning you could make your hand and lose anyway.

I'd re-raise the flop and take a free card on the turn. If I don't improve and he checks the river, bet 2/3Pot. That seems to work the vast majority of the time. If he comes over the top, I'm probably letting this one go if I have more than 40-50BB left.

my 2c. Interesting what others think.
Kirk

Re: Ditch this draw or play?
 

Although line from above post looks good I think I'd pooosh expecting folds but not too bummed if i get a call. Plus you have the extra advantage if you get a caller that next time you have top set on a two flush board you can just open push your whole stack and get called.

Re: Ditch this draw or play?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'd re-raise the flop and take a free card on the turn. If I don't improve and he checks the river, bet 2/3Pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Kirkrrr,

Didn't put my stack in the op.
After utg+2s raise the pot is at about t400. I have t1k. Any significant raise pretty much commits me to the pot and assuming I did get a free card I dont have enough to bet 2/3 the pot.
FWIW, I think that checking the turn and betting the river on this draw heavy board will look exactly like a missed flush draw too much to make the bet +EV.

Re: Ditch this draw or play?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Although line from above post looks good I think I'd pooosh expecting folds but not too bummed if i get a call. Plus you have the extra advantage if you get a caller that next time you have top set on a two flush board you can just open push your whole stack and get called.

[/ QUOTE ]

This depends on :

a) he wins the hand

b) he stays at the same table for the forseeable future

c) his table is full of observant players

none of those three are more then 50% likely, so (with the exception of a..) they dont figure to be overly important.

Re: Ditch this draw or play?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Early in the PP 40k Guarantee. 10/15

Hero is dealth T7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on the button.

1 fold, donk utg(~750) min raises to t30, utg+2(~800) calls, an mp player calls, hero calls t30 and the blinds come along.

Pot = t180

Flop comes: Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

blinds check, utg bets t15, utg+2 raises to t200 all the action folds to me...

Do I have to let this go? I figure I'm about even against his range.

What do you guys think?

Thanks-

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I'm calling here. I don't think you have any FE b/c villian who bet 200 will call a push. I guess I just have a feeling about it, he bet it so hard, I can't see him letting it go. I would also put UTG on a high PP 80% of the time here, I think he also likely calls an all in. I've seen his type of idiotic min raise PF, min raise post flop too many times turn out to be a high PP. So I want to keep him in this hand to give myself better odds.

If min raisor pushes and other villian calls, easy call here. But I think it's likely min raisor will just call and you get great odds to win a really big pot.

Re: Ditch this draw or play?
 

can you actually come up with a real argument for doing anything but pushing here? really?

Re: Ditch this draw or play?
 

Yeah, see my post.

Re: Ditch this draw or play?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would also put UTG on a high PP 80% of the time here, I think he also likely calls an all in.

[/ QUOTE ]

so you think two people will call your push and that is an argument against pushing? Thats backwards. If two people call, you have about a 60% chance of tripling up. You aren't pushing here because you always want a fold. You are pushing here because you have a hand that is way too strong to fold, and really benefits from seeing two cards. Its sort of inconsequential what everybody else does. If they fold you pick up a nice sized pot, but even if they never fold you have 14 outs twice, so you are in a nice +EV spot.

On the other hand if you just call and brick the turn if the UTG player folded on the flop you can get bet off your hand if he pushes wasting the 30% of your stack you already put in, and if UTG called then there's about 600 in the pot and you will have to call off the rest of your chips anyway getting roughly 2:1 on a 2:1 shot. Plus if you hit on the turn there is no guarentee you are getting paid off. Its a lot easier for a guy to fold AQ when there is a 4 card straight, or 3 to a flush out there.

Tell me again what makes calling better?

Re: Ditch this draw or play?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think I'm calling here.

[/ QUOTE ]

And when the turn whiffs and utg+2 pushes?

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think you have any FE b/c villian who bet 200 will call a push. I guess I just have a feeling about it, he bet it so hard, I can't see him letting it go.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. 85% that he would call.

[ QUOTE ]
I would also put UTG on a high PP 80% of the time here, I think he also likely calls an all in.

[/ QUOTE ]

na...A6o or some such, firing the 15 out because he read somewhere you're supposed to bet after raising. If he loaded up with a big bet on the flop I would think different.

Thanks for the reply.

Re: Ditch this draw or play?
 

Your post seems to (inadvertantly) argue for pushing how I'm reading it. No FE? So? Come along with me for all I care. The more the merrier. Are you calling and then folding to a push on the turn? If so, that's awful. If not, push now. if they fold, great, if they don't, great. Push = win, win, win. Call = Win, lose, win... or maybe win, lose, lose.

Re: Ditch this draw or play?
 

The way I read your post only one person has folded, the mp. That leaves 3 behind you no matter what you do.

You put 30 into the pot. Push or fold.

This early, I fold. Preflop, actually. But I wouldn't fault anyone on the push-I just think the fact that 3 are still to act after you before getting to the original raiser may impact the push decision.

Re: Ditch this draw or play?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would also put UTG on a high PP 80% of the time here, I think he also likely calls an all in.

[/ QUOTE ]

so you think two people will call your push and that is an argument against pushing? Thats backwards. If two people call, you have about a 60% chance of tripling up. You aren't pushing here because you always want a fold. You are pushing here because you have a hand that is way too strong to fold, and really benefits from seeing two cards. Its sort of inconsequential what everybody else does. If they fold you pick up a nice sized pot, but even if they never fold you have 14 outs twice, so you are in a nice +EV spot.

On the other hand if you just call and brick the turn if the UTG player folded on the flop you can get bet off your hand if he pushes wasting the 30% of your stack you already put in, and if UTG called then there's about 600 in the pot and you will have to call off the rest of your chips anyway getting roughly 2:1 on a 2:1 shot. Plus if you hit on the turn there is no guarentee you are getting paid off. Its a lot easier for a guy to fold AQ when there is a 4 card straight, or 3 to a flush out there.

Tell me again what makes calling better?

[/ QUOTE ]

My point was more along the lines that if we're pushing the flop hoping for folds, it's not happening. I tried to say that 1, but probably not both other actors are going to call. If you guys are saying you don't care, then that's fine, but I thought that that was the reason you wanted to push, b/c you thought you had fold equity. I was trying to give reasons that individually, both of those actors call. the 200 chip raisor is probably doing this with 2 pr or something, he's trying to prevent the flush draw, and he's not laying down to a push. The other guy, (to respond to the other poster) I've played this tourney a lot, I can't tell you how many times I've seen the min raise UTG w/ AA or KK, followed by a min bet post flop. I'm sticking to an 80% chance. He's probably not laying down to a push either.

BUT I don't see it as super likely that both call. I could easily be wrong about UTG, more likely I'm wrong about him than the other guy. The point still is though that you're giving yourself worse odds than you could be. Get what I'm saying?

I've played this tourney a lot, and I could very easily see me calling here,and UTG calling. I could also very likely see UTG pushing and then you get to see what other guy does. That's key. I'm not saying that pushing here is bad per se, it's not a bad move at all. More like I'm willing to take the chance here for more chips early on, and I think there's a good chance that I get checks to me on the turn, or at least small bets. This way has a good chance of making sure both get all their money in on the flop, if they're inclined to do so.

edit: Oh yeah, I didn't notice that there were still the blinds in the hand. That's even more reason I like a call here. Don't scare away more potential callers. My point is basically that I'm playing this expecting to push (or call some pushes) at some point, very likely the flop after I call the bet. I know that my push is going to get called, and since we know I'm probably drawing to the best hand, I want to make sure I get as many possible other callers as I can. I think my way is the best way to do this, rather than pushing when it gets to me.

Re: Ditch this draw or play?
 

I am fairly new to this forum. A good portion of my experience is in tourney play. That does not make me a master, but it has given me some insights.

The responses here are interesting. Our hero has a mere 30 chips in the pot, it is still early in the tourney, and it looks to me like a push is being suggested as the best choice, all based on the estimate that the preflop min raiser is holding a PP.

What if one of those PP cards is an A or a K of spades? What if it is AK of spades? MAYBE he is just trying to push you out of the pot now with a bet that size because he flopped a set. If that is the case, why, so early in the tourney, would you be willing to risk everything on what might not even be the nuts if you DO make your hand? I mean, I get the go big or go home theory, but really, if he has a single spade higher than yours, he has a chance at outdrawing and nullifying your flush draw...

Or maybe he is just a weak player who underbet with his original raise, and overbet the pot on the flop with nothing but AKo (neither a spade) and he is just hoping to steal, because, as mentioned earlier, he may have read somewhere that you are supposed to bet when you raise preflop...

The problem is, you can't know any of the above if you have never played this villain before, and especially if it is this early in the tourney, you may not have even seen him play any other hands yet. If you HAVE, has he been aggressive, or weak or ... ?

He may be strong, and just betting the pot on a flush draw as well, but this comes back to our hero drawing to a dead flush, and the straight being the only thing he has to draw to, assuming the villain doesn't also make a higher straight.

Again, I ask you, with those two cards, why are you willing to risk your entire stack for only having invested 30 chips to see the flop, especially this early in the tourney? Why not wait for a better opportunity to go to war? Yes, you have a good flop, but there are some preflop raising hands that leave you drawing dead...

In a cash game, I don't think I would have a problem moving all-in with this scenario, or at least re-raising with the hope of getting a free card on the turn (the choice of which of the above would depend on my read of my opponent), but in a tourney, when I can't just reach into my pocket for more chips, I would hesitate to even call here.

So we come back to the beginning. I would either move all-in or fold, and that would depend on whether or not I was in a serious gambling mood and whether or not I felt my opponent would call. If he was just weak and/or trying to steal the pot, he will fold anyway. If he is strong, he may fold just because he is smart and think he is already beaten because you flopped a straight. Another question then is, assuming our villain IS a strong player, what image does he have of you? Will he think you are bluffing or does he see you as straightforward? If he sees you as straightforward, he may not be willing to risk all his chips even if he knows you are on a flush/straight draw, especially if he only has QQ in the hole. Then he would know that you have a good chance of beating him...

Gotta love poker and the choices we get to make in hold em!

edit:

one more thing to consider ... what if you DO just flat call the 200 and someone behind you pushes ? are you prepared to move all-in ? I think I would be at that point, based on the assumption that they are likely trying to steal with a bluff and you probably have a better hand than they do - BUT I often limp in with AK and I am sure I am not the only player who does that, so you need to decide, do ya feel lucky? well, do ya, punk? er... sorry - You need to decide before calling a 200 chip bet in this situation as to whether or not you are prepared to call an all-in if anyone else acting after you goes all in - if you are not prepared to call a move like that, you might as well fold right now or risk kissing 200 chips goodbye. On the other other other hand, IF you flat call the 200 and both (or even either) of the two callers behind you push, you MIGHT get lucky and triple up if the original raiser goes all in...

Yes, you could be drawing to the best flush/straight, but then again, I might try to keep my answer as vague as possible, because, "it depends"...

Re: Ditch this draw or play?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I just think the fact that 3 are still to act after you before getting to the original raiser may impact the push decision.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wouldn't this be more of a consideration, how many left to act, if I were semi-bluffing with 2PTK, or something? If I push, I'm not really broken up if others call it. Unless they have bigger flush draws. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: Ditch this draw or play?
 

Just to clarify what I mean by the above post, think about this worst case scenario:

You call 200 chips, only 1 out of 3 people to act calls that. The turn bricks. 200 chip raisor pushes, and you have to call 800 to win 1600, and you're 34% to win, so an even money call against top two. This is the WORST case.

But, if you push the flop, and get called by 200 chip raisor, and only him, you miss out on the 200 chip contribution from someone else.

What if you make your hand on the turn and still have 2 (or more) people in the hand to extract more from.

Where this really pays is if more than 1 person calls the flop OR if you call, then BB pushes, UTG calls, 200 chip raisor calls, or something like that. Which isn't too unlikely.

I just don't see the point in giving yourself worse odds than you could be IF you're committed to putting all your chips in on this play. You could fold too, I guess that's up to you.

Re: Ditch this draw or play?
 

AJ,

Thank you for the thorough reply. You make great points. I think you have misinterpreted the action though.

utg+1 min raised to 30 and utg+2 called it. On the flop utg+1 the OR bet t15 into a 180 and utg+2 raised to 200 after cold calling pre-flop. I did not put utg+1 on a big pair. In this particular tourney the ep min raising is so incessant that you just cant think that way.

Calling was not really a valid option, for me.

Thanks again-

Re: Ditch this draw or play?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Again, I ask you, with those two cards, why are you willing to risk your entire stack for only having invested 30 chips to see the flop, especially this early in the tourney?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why are people so inherently worried about it being early in a tournament?

IF you goal is to maximise EV per time unit, then taking a literal coinflip on the first hand (imo) is the best option. The earlier the better. EV neutral to double my chips? Im takin it every time

Factor in this instance, it wont be EV neutral, it will be +EV, then it makes playing this hand almost obligatory.

Whether to push or call is the dilemma for me, and from what I can see, there are people behind to act. Given this, Id tend to call, and attract overcallers.

a) If someone has a flush draw, they wont be pushed out the pot, so if we jam/call against him it will make no difference.

b) we do still need to make the hand at some stage, calling here and getting overcallers increases our pot equity vs equity we put in the pot dramatically, to the extent that even if we get moved in on the turn, we still have the odds to call.

c) the more people in the pot, the better the chances of someone making a good enough *second best* hand to pay us off.

d) if we do call and get overcallers, it mite slow the aggressor down to the extent where we can see the river without being all-in, and having more then one person tagging along for the ride. That way if we miss, we will still have chips.

from the looks of it, it seems like you get best equity from calling to attract overcallers... although I certainly dont think jamming is any worse a move then calling, just a difference in styles.

Re: Ditch this draw or play?
 

My apologies - I thought it was the OR who was making the big raise... All that typing and dissection for nada :P

Re: Ditch this draw or play?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Again, I ask you, with those two cards, why are you willing to risk your entire stack for only having invested 30 chips to see the flop, especially this early in the tourney?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why are people so inherently worried about it being early in a tournament?

[/ QUOTE ]

I meant early in relation to the size of the blinds and your initial investment in this particular pot. Perhaps it is a better idea to get in on it now, so that in case you DO lose, so you will still have chips to play at this lower blind limit, but you seem to be looking at this as an "I have to win this hand now" opportunity whereas I am looking at it with an "I can afford to wait for a better place to go to war" theory. Both work. But, if I am wrong, it only costs me 30 chips. If you are wrong, it costs you the tournament.

Re: Ditch this draw or play?
 

Dave, i have a few observations/questions for you.

1)a push here isn't a bluff. We are pushing here because we have enormous equity in the hand. because of the nature of our hand(superdraw), we want overpairs to call, rather than fold. This is because i, nor anyone who is advocating pushing, is counting our pair outs as clean outs, so if another "pair" type hand calls, we now triple up if we hit our hand, rather than double up. BIG Difference.

2) we must include some FE here. Though it is small, There is some chance both villans fold.

3) Now if we want UTG to call with an overpair, and If you are 80% sure that utg has an over pair, do you think he is more likely to call an all in now, or when a four-straight/three flush comes on the turn.

Another basic reason we must push the flop, is because of what happens if we miss on the turn. You said if you call here you could expect a check/smallish bet to you. WHY? if you are thinking both players will call you push, i don't understand why they would slow down on the turn if you just call.

If there is a bigger flush draw out, your screwed either way. Sorry, theres nothing you can do here.

In your edit you address the fact that you may get additional callers if you just call. what hand ranges do you think are calling here.i dont think that many hands are calling here, and you don't want to see a blank turn, with a huge pot, and have UTG+2 push, which he probably will, if as you say, he is protecting against a flush

Re: Ditch this draw or play?
 

but if your right, you have your original chips-30.

If im right, i have 2-3 times your chips and will bully you like theres no tommorow.

Re: Ditch this draw or play?
 

Different schools of thought I guess... In some cases like this, I would rather be patient and wait for a better place to go to war. It would depend on my reads of my opponents. Unless I am reading it wrong, I get the impression that the raiser is only going to get 180 chips from the pot if everyone folds.

If that is the case, I couldn't care less. More power to you if you can do that time and again. The thing is, most people who play like that don't know when to change gears. For that reason, I will use their aggression against them. You can try bullying me if you like, but when you put all those chips in the middle and I rake them in because you thought I was going to fold but ended up showing the best hand, don't say I didn't warn you. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Ditch this draw or play?
 

IF you are playing me, yes there will be times where you can hang me with my own aggression. This is not one of those times, cause i don't really care if you call.

PS. You better know what your doing though. There is a big difference between stupid lags and smart, thinking lags. On my good days i like to think im in the second catagory.

Re: Ditch this draw or play?
 

This is a definite push IMO, for the reasons stated above, as you are making a +EV play and are more likely to get their money in here than when a card that makes your hand comes down, as it will make for a VERY scary board, and they may not want to stick around.

Re: Ditch this draw or play?
 

[ QUOTE ]
can you actually come up with a real argument for doing anything but pushing here? really?

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Ditch this draw or play?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Dave, i have a few observations/questions for you.

1)a push here isn't a bluff. We are pushing here because we have enormous equity in the hand. because of the nature of our hand(superdraw), we want overpairs to call, rather than fold. This is because i, nor anyone who is advocating pushing, is counting our pair outs as clean outs, so if another "pair" type hand calls, we now triple up if we hit our hand, rather than double up. BIG Difference.


[/ QUOTE ]

I never said I was counting pair outs as outs, definatly agree with you there. I never said we were bluffing. Rather, we can both agree that we've decided to get all our chips in on this hand at some point, that decision has been made. You're actually supporting my argument when you make point 1. A push is more likely to make all the other actors fold, except 200 chip raisor, or UTG (but as I've said before, probably not both). This is BAD, if I've decided I want to play this hand for all my chips, and I believe I'm drawing to the best hand, I might as well get as many callers as possible. The best way to do this is to call the raise, giving the blinds/UTG good odds to call with either a second best hand, or drawing towards one. With a call, BB may think "hmm, I just paired my 9 w/ A9, yeah i'll draw cuz I'm getting 3:1", pushing will make him fold.

[ QUOTE ]


2) we must include some FE here. Though it is small, There is some chance both villans fold.



[/ QUOTE ]

I seriously doubt it given the nature of this tournament. I play it in all the time, early on people love to call with weak hands and there's just too many idiots. Further, a 200 chip pot sized bet implies a hand that's good right now trying to protect against flush draws. Not folding to a push, nevermind UTG+1 (the min raisor).

[ QUOTE ]

3) Now if we want UTG to call with an overpair, and If you are 80% sure that utg has an over pair, do you think he is more likely to call an all in now, or when a four-straight/three flush comes on the turn.



[/ QUOTE ]

He may call a push, but I like calling in order to give him a chance to push. Yesterday some idiot limped AA with like 4 limpers to him PF, called a bet from me on a QQK board, then called another bet on turn Q, and then another on the river. He never raised. I wouldn't discount UTG here simply calling the flop either. Or I could be wrong and he just folds. Point is, I believe there's a much bigger chance he'll call the 200 chip raise, than a push, regardless of what I think he has. I want to keep him in the hand, since we've already decided we're going broke on this hand.

[ QUOTE ]


Another basic reason we must push the flop, is because of what happens if we miss on the turn. You said if you call here you could expect a check/smallish bet to you. WHY? if you are thinking both players will call you push, i don't understand why they would slow down on the turn if you just call.



[/ QUOTE ]

I've said repeatedly I don't believe both will call a push. I'd put it at about 95% 1 calls, and maybe at best 30% both call. What I was trying to say is I believed there were reasons each individually would have to call a push. I could also be *completely wrong* about UTG and he just dumps his A6o. All signs point to only 1 caller of the push.

I didn't say they would slow down on the turn, someone else did, though I totally agree with that. ESPECIALLY if there are more actors in the hand, the 200 chip raisor will most likely think to himself "man, all these people have called my raise, I gotta slow down". Chances are good he won't think to push here, because that would be the smart thing to do.

What I did say, was that even if 200 chip raisor pushes, we have more than even money odds to call, nevermind if someone else calls his push and since we already decided we're going broke on this hand, we can call. But PUSHING THE FLOP AND GETTING CALLED GIVES US MUCH LESS MONEY THAN WE COULD OTHERWISE GET. Please see my "worst case scenario" from calling.

[ QUOTE ]

In your edit you address the fact that you may get additional callers if you just call. what hand ranges do you think are calling here.i dont think that many hands are calling here, and you don't want to see a blank turn, with a huge pot, and have UTG+2 push, which he probably will, if as you say, he is protecting against a flush

[/ QUOTE ]

Early in this tournament, I wouldn't be surprised to see 33 call the 200 chip bet with his two outs. Never underestimate the stupidity of party players, especially early in this tournament.

Even if UTG+2 pushes on a blank turn, and UTG+1 folds here after we call, we still have odds to call due to UTG+1's 200 chip call alone, nevermind if SB, BB, and UTG+1 called the 200 chip raise.

Re: Ditch this draw or play?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I've said repeatedly I don't believe both will call a push. I'd put it at about 95% 1 calls, and maybe at best 30% both call


[/ QUOTE ]

First you say we have no FE. But now you say 5% of the time both will fold. Thats FE.

Second, where are you getting these numbers. You keep saying
that party players are so bad. i agree, so i think if UTG+2 has a hand that can call our push, he will call a lot higher percentage of pushes with UTG as well.


[ QUOTE ]

I could also be *completely wrong* about UTG and he just dumps his A6o.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is the main reason you can not call. Lets look at you equity on the flop compared to the turn, if a blank hits.
i won't include UTG, but if you check it out you will find that whether UTG has an overpair doesn't really matter much to you.


FLOP:
Board: Js Qs 7h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 47.1717 % 47.17% 00.00% { Ts7s }
Hand 2: 52.8283 % 52.83% 00.00% { QQ-JJ, 99, AQs, KQs, QJs, Q9s, J9s, AQo, KQo, QJo, Q9o, J9o }

TURN:

Board: Js Qs 7h 5c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 29.2490 % 29.25% 00.00% { Ts7s }
Hand 2: 70.7510 % 70.75% 00.00% { QQ-JJ, 99, AQs, KQs, QJs, Q9s, J9s, AQo, KQo, QJo, Q9o, J9o }


So, you have to be totally sure UTG will push, or you won't be getting correct odds on the turn when when UTG+2 makes a large bet. Combine that with the 5% or so FE you have and i think you need to push.

For a call to be correct, you have to get remaining players to call AND UTG to push. I don't think this happens enough to not push here.

Re: Ditch this draw or play?
 

obviously if you are already all-in, you aren't concerned about whether or not I am going to call and you are just hoping that if I do, you make your draw

that wasn't what I meant - yes, I was talking about the latter, and I would hope I am more often in the second category as well [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

however, if I was the UTG player, I am one who would likely fold to your all in move here if I only had trips - but then, I wouldn't have put myself in that situation in the first place - not in that manner - because I would be playing QQQ slowly here and letting YOU be the aggressor.

If I flopped trips here, and simply checked the flop, I would bet you are not going to go all in with a draw (or would you?), and at that point, if you do go all-in, I am not in for a fortune and can let the hand go. On the other hand, if you make a pot sized bet, I can call it and see what the turn brings. If it brings a spade or a straight card, I can lay down the hand if I feel it helped you, and if it was a brick, I can try to push you out of the pot, or at least make you all in with only one card to go. No, I probably won't be raking a monster pot (unless your straight/flush also gives me a boat and you miss that), but I will still be there the next hand if I lose a little bit.

I don't have a problem going for the throat when it is called for, but when I am not sure of myself, I will err on the side of caution in a tourney. I would rather prey on the weaker fish - that is what they are there for, and I can acknowledge that sometimes there is another shark in my pond, and there is no point chewing each other up - I will let him nibble at me until I can bite back and rip a chunk out of his side.

Different outlooks, different strategies... No, I am probably not aggressive enough overall, but I often win the tourneys in which I am involved, usually because the overly aggressive players think I am weak, and they give their chips to me.

I am not saying a player like yourself would make that kind of mistake often, although we both know it happens, but there are enough terrible players out there who WILL make that mistake often enough to make my style very successful. Once I am out of the mid stack range, my game can change considerably, if I want it to - but that depends on the table and players at that table, and their relative stack sizes.

Re: Ditch this draw or play?
 

[ QUOTE ]
however, if I was the UTG player, I am one who would likely fold to your all in move here if I only had trips - but then, I wouldn't have put myself in that situation in the first place - not in that manner - because I would be playing QQQ slowly here and letting YOU be the aggressor.


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That is way to weak tight. I don't want to sound like a dick, but if you are going to play weak-tightish and try and let aggressive players bluff off their chips to you, you are going to have to make more marginal calls against these players. QQ on this board is nowhere near a marginal call, and the fact that you would fold the second nuts here makes me think you will not go deep in tournys often.

Re: Ditch this draw or play?
 

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[ QUOTE ]
I've said repeatedly I don't believe both will call a push. I'd put it at about 95% 1 calls, and maybe at best 30% both call


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First you say we have no FE. But now you say 5% of the time both will fold. Thats FE.

Second, where are you getting these numbers. You keep saying
that party players are so bad. i agree, so i think if UTG+2 has a hand that can call our push, he will call a lot higher percentage of pushes with UTG as well.



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You're missing the point. I still think we have little, if any fold equity, to the point where it's not something I'm thinking about. That's what I was trying to say.

I don't think A9o (that paired his 9) will call a push. I DO think he will call our call, getting 3 to 1. Other draws (gutshots, even worse than hero's OESDs that don't realize what they should be doing here) will call a raise. They will NOT want to call a push.


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I could also be *completely wrong* about UTG and he just dumps his A6o.


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This is the main reason you can not call. Lets look at you equity on the flop compared to the turn, if a blank hits.
i won't include UTG, but if you check it out you will find that whether UTG has an overpair doesn't really matter much to you.


FLOP:
Board: Js Qs 7h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 47.1717 % 47.17% 00.00% { Ts7s }
Hand 2: 52.8283 % 52.83% 00.00% { QQ-JJ, 99, AQs, KQs, QJs, Q9s, J9s, AQo, KQo, QJo, Q9o, J9o }

TURN:

Board: Js Qs 7h 5c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 29.2490 % 29.25% 00.00% { Ts7s }
Hand 2: 70.7510 % 70.75% 00.00% { QQ-JJ, 99, AQs, KQs, QJs, Q9s, J9s, AQo, KQo, QJo, Q9o, J9o }


So, you have to be totally sure UTG will push, or you won't be getting correct odds on the turn when when UTG+2 makes a large bet. Combine that with the 5% or so FE you have and i think you need to push.

For a call to be correct, you have to get remaining players to call AND UTG to push. I don't think this happens enough to not push here.

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No, see my earlier calculation. All I need is UTG+1, SB, or BB to call the 200 for it to be even money. Nevermind what they do on the turn/river. If we assume villian has QJ, hero is 34% to win if the turn is a brick, even if you drop that to 29%, it's pretty close on the turn. 200 (pot on the flop)+200 (UTG+2)+200 (your call)+200 (one caller)= 800. Villian can push for 575, at worst giving us to call 575 to win 1375 giving us 2.4:1 which is EV.

I think the chance of villian doing something other than pushing on the turn is also a reason to flat call. Say villian bets 400, that gives hero 3 to 1 to call, +EV, and hero can fold the river if he doesn't make his hand. At this stage in the tourney, 400 isn't terrible. I think this consideration outweighs the FE consideration.


Again, by pushing you make EVERYONE fold except the OR, by calling you open it up for ALLLL THESE OTHER OVERCALLS. We've established that hero will go broke on this hand by pushing (if he loses), you MIGHT AS WELL MAXIMIZE the amount you could win and/or leave yourself a chance of getting out.

edit: The key here is that I'm playing the hand for all my chips either way, pushing or calling until I have nothing left. But the second way allows me to survive, and possibly get even more money if I make my hand.

Re: Ditch this draw or play?
 

[ QUOTE ]
however, if I was the UTG player, I am one who would likely fold to your all in move here if I only had trips - but then, I wouldn't have put myself in that situation in the first place - not in that manner - because I would be playing QQQ slowly here and letting YOU be the aggressor.


[/ QUOTE ]

You're going to play QQ slowly on THIS flop?! WTF. Give me a Q72 rainbow flop and play it slow as you want, but this is probably the worst possible flop to slowplay QQ on. Just really, really weak-bad.

Re: Ditch this draw or play?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
however, if I was the UTG player, I am one who would likely fold to your all in move here if I only had trips - but then, I wouldn't have put myself in that situation in the first place - not in that manner - because I would be playing QQQ slowly here and letting YOU be the aggressor.


[/ QUOTE ]

That is way to weak tight. I don't want to sound like a dick, but if you are going to play weak-tightish and try and let aggressive players bluff off their chips to you, you are going to have to make more marginal calls against these players. QQ on this board is nowhere near a marginal call, and the fact that you would fold the second nuts here makes me think you will not go deep in tournys often.

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Agreed. I'm pushing QQ as UTG+1 basically every time. Or at least raising some, and calling a push from OR.

Re: Ditch this draw or play?
 

Let me put it another way. I meant that I would check that to a player like yourself, one who might be overly aggressive, because I know you are going to put a lot of money in the pot if I let you, one way or another - whether you have a hand or not, because you either want to steal the pot or because you have a semi playable hand. In a different case, if I know the other players involved will just flat call and if I know they are weak(ish) I will put money in the pot expecting them to call.

Perhaps you misunderstood what I said, or perhaps you misunderstood my intent.

I would slow play QQQ against an aggressive player because I know he will put his money in the pot without my asking, and I would lead with this hand against a weaker player (because the weaker player is either going to check anyway, or fold).

9 times out of 10 I will NOT fold QQQ if I check and you go all in here - I guess the first time I should have worded it that it gave me the option to fold after seeing your bet, but my point was that most people likely would not go all in on a draw (unless I am really underestimating most players out there - even the hyper aggressive ones), and I am giving myself a free (or less expensive) card on the turn, and it will be enough to no longer give you odds at your draw. I know I have the nuts at that point, BUT, if you are willing to push all in, it either means you are trying to steal or you have a hand you believe in, and it would be a personality call (based on my read of you) at that point, for me, as to whether or not I need to lay down my hand.

I know when to make a good laydown. Call me weak if you want, but as I said, I finish at or near the top in most tourneys I play in.

edit: please note I am still learning and you may have a lot more experience than me, but my style works, for now, and even though I need to learn when and where to be more aggressive, I will continue to win more often than I lose with my style of play because it defeats so many other styles of play.

Re: Ditch this draw or play?
 

You're right, you would be pretty much pot committed. I assumed you have about t1500, like on Pstars. In that case, push the river if he checks and all looks safe.

As far as checking the turn and betting the river, all I can say is that it works against 90% of average opponents. Usually, they are drawing too or have very marginal hands, otherwise they would re-raise the flop and bet the turn/river. So when you bet the river, they just let it go thinking you might be bluffing but not willing to risk their whole stack to find out for sure.

Kirk

Re: Ditch this draw or play?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
however, if I was the UTG player, I am one who would likely fold to your all in move here if I only had trips - but then, I wouldn't have put myself in that situation in the first place - not in that manner - because I would be playing QQQ slowly here and letting YOU be the aggressor.


[/ QUOTE ]

You're going to play QQ slowly on THIS flop?! WTF. Give me a Q72 rainbow flop and play it slow as you want, but this is probably the worst possible flop to slowplay QQ on. Just really, really weak-bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

please see my response above as to when I would slow play this hand (I would do so against a hyper aggressive player because I know he would bet into me) - the YOU in the other post was in reference to the poster specifically addressing the other post, ie. I was talking about my laying a trap for the hyper aggressive player who THINKs I am weak

Re: Ditch this draw or play?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
however, if I was the UTG player, I am one who would likely fold to your all in move here if I only had trips - but then, I wouldn't have put myself in that situation in the first place - not in that manner - because I would be playing QQQ slowly here and letting YOU be the aggressor.


[/ QUOTE ]

You're going to play QQ slowly on THIS flop?! WTF. Give me a Q72 rainbow flop and play it slow as you want, but this is probably the worst possible flop to slowplay QQ on. Just really, really weak-bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

please see my response above as to when I would slow play this hand (I would do so against a hyper aggressive player because I know he would bet into me) - the YOU in the other post was in reference to the poster specifically addressing the other post, ie. I was talking about my laying a trap for the hyper aggressive player who THINKs I am weak

[/ QUOTE ]
I understand what you said. And it's bad. Against any multiway field (which this is) and this flop you must bet to protect your hand on this draw heavy board and hope a LAG raises, or, alternatively you can check-raise. Neither really qualifies as slow-playing. Slowplaying (i.e. check-call) here is pretty terrible (and not in a 'oh that's your style' way... objectively terrible).

Re: Ditch this draw or play?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
however, if I was the UTG player, I am one who would likely fold to your all in move here if I only had trips - but then, I wouldn't have put myself in that situation in the first place - not in that manner - because I would be playing QQQ slowly here and letting YOU be the aggressor.


[/ QUOTE ]

You're going to play QQ slowly on THIS flop?! WTF. Give me a Q72 rainbow flop and play it slow as you want, but this is probably the worst possible flop to slowplay QQ on. Just really, really weak-bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

please see my response above as to when I would slow play this hand (I would do so against a hyper aggressive player because I know he would bet into me) - the YOU in the other post was in reference to the poster specifically addressing the other post, ie. I was talking about my laying a trap for the hyper aggressive player who THINKs I am weak

[/ QUOTE ]
I understand what you said. And it's bad. Against any multiway field (which this is) and this flop you must bet to protect your hand on this draw heavy board and hope a LAG raises, or, alternatively you can check-raise. Neither really qualifies as slow-playing. Slowplaying (i.e. check-call) here is pretty terrible (and not in a 'oh that's your style' way... objectively terrible).

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, I am talking about when a hyper aggressive player is acting directly after me, because I know he will bet, so I am not worried about the rest of the field when I KNOW the hyper aggressive player will bet immediately after I check - I am talking about a very specific situation here, as I have been all along. So, yes, I am talking about check-raising the hyper aggressive player.

Add to this that the whole topic of this discussion is that most people here would push all in with a draw just goes to prove that my betting to protect my hand would NOT work against a hyper aggressive player anyway, but the size of his bet MIGHT help me identify his hand, AND my check-raise (or push) might completely thin the field to just the two of us.

edit: I guess we were talking semantics - my definition of slowplaying didn't match yours, sorry