Rangers trade Soriano to Nationals
 

For Brad Wilkerson, Termell Sledge, and a minor leaguer. Story says they'll move him to LF.

ESPN

Re: Rangers trade Soriano to Nationals
 

LMAO. Holy crap. I'm not sure Soriano in LF is significantly better than Terrmel, and he's definitely not better than Brad Wilkerson.

Re: Rangers trade Soriano to Nationals
 

Offense put 'em in the seats. The Nationals got off to a good start attendance wise, and I'm sure they're concerned about a sophomore slump. Thats my guess anyway.

Re: Rangers trade Soriano to Nationals
 

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Offense put 'em in the seats. The Nationals got off to a good start attendance wise, and I'm sure they're concerned about a sophomore slump. Thats my guess anyway.

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Problem is Alfonso isn't really better than Brad or Terrmel on offense.

Re: Rangers trade Soriano to Nationals
 

please keep THIS MAN:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...5052200834.jpg

away from fenway park. thank god they never hired this clown.

Re: Rangers trade Soriano to Nationals
 

Yeah, I don't buy in to it making them any more competitive in the NL east, but I can see it helping them sell some tickets. Soriano is a name player, much more so than the guys they are giving up. It helps them sell the illusion that they were just a move or two awy last year and that this is their year. Even if it doesn't work out, they look like a team trying to make it happen. The Nats would rather be sustainable than champs at this point.

Re: Rangers trade Soriano to Nationals
 

LMFAO

Re: Rangers trade Soriano to Nationals
 

Yeah, this is an awful deal for the Nats. Soriano will be a free agent next year. Wilkerson in two years. Soriano played in a hitter's park and he's headed to play in RFK, a pitcher's park.

Wilkerson played hurt most of last year and had probably his worst season as a pro, but he was still an above average outfielder. On top of that, he's a fan favorite.

Now onto Sledge. I agree that Sledge isn't a huge dropoff from Soriano and Sledge makes about 1/10th of what Soriano makes.

I'm not exactly sure why the Red Sox are interviewing Bowden. Your roster will be filled with mediocre ex-Reds in no time.

Re: Rangers trade Soriano to Nationals
 

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Problem is Alfonso isn't really better than Brad or Terrmel on offense.


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really? i am looking and wilkerson hasn't done anything close to what soriano has done, the only thing the rangers get for him is walk/k ratio. as far as terrmel he hasn't really lived up to his hype since he was busted with steriods in 2003 during the olympic trials. he had a decent rookie year but to say soriano isn't better when terrmel has yet to do anything seems ludicous to me.

Re: Rangers trade Soriano to Nationals
 

Random conspiracy theory floated by me drunk last night. Bowden brings Soriano to DC and moves him to the outfield which brings his value down due to position and loss of stats in RFK. Bowden then signs to be the GM of Boston. Boston then signs Soriano cheaper next year.

Re: Rangers trade Soriano to Nationals
 

I can't decide. Which deal is worse, the Renteria deal or this one? SORIANO IS TWICE THE PLAYER of WILKERSON!!!! Slege and a minor leaguer do not make up for the difference in major league talent. The Rangers offense gets worse, and thier pitching did not get any better. If they take the money saved going from Soriano to Wilkerson and sign a quality pitcher, that will even things out a little.

This is a pretty bad deal for the Nationals as well, unless they move Vidro. When you move Soriano to the outfield, he is no longer the VERY BEST player at his position! In other words, as an outfielder, Soriano is probably only worth the difference in price compared to Wilkerson. So while the Nationals offense gets better, they pay for it.

I don't ever want to hear anyone say that Terrmal Sledge is in the same universe as Alfonso Soriano ever again. I think that is the most laughable statement I've ever heard. It rates right up there with comparing Dwight Gooden to Sandy Koufax as Hall of Fame candidates.

Re: Rangers trade Soriano to Nationals
 

The last 2 years, Soriano has had a road OPS of ~ .685.

Sledges career road OPS (granted only 224 at bats) is .873.

The Rangers got a Centerfielder who costs 3 million and had an .800 road OPS in the last 3 years, Sledge who costs almost nothing, and a minor leaguer, for Soriano, who costs 8 million, and who will now play a corner outfield position.

So i dont see how this is a horrible trade for the Rangers.
Soriano is overrated.

Re: Rangers trade Soriano to Nationals
 

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The last 2 years, Soriano has had a road OPS of ~ .685.

Sledges career road OPS (granted only 224 at bats) is .873.

The Rangers got a Centerfielder who costs 3 million and had an .800 road OPS in the last 3 years, Sledge who costs almost nothing, and a minor leaguer, for Soriano, who costs 8 million, and who will now play a corner outfield position.

So i dont see how this is a horrible trade for the Rangers.
Soriano is overrated.

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Trying to argue in the case of Terrmel Slege kills any credibility you might be able to gain. Sledge is a fourth outfielder, Soriano is a Major League superstar.

Soriano hit .306/350/.567 on the road in 2003 and .319/.352/.582 in 2002. It's a little thing I like to call sample size.

Soriano is not overrated, and if he is, it's only slightly. The most overrated player to move in this deal was Brad Wilkerson, unless you try and argue Sledge and Soriano as equals, then Terrmal Sledge is the most overrated.

Re: Rangers trade Soriano to Nationals
 

As hitters, Fonz and Terrmel are very close in value. If Soriano gets converted to LF, he's slightly better and much more expensive than Terrmel. Surely you would agree that if Alfonso's in left he's not worth a) the money he gets paid more than Sledge and b) Brad Wilkerson.

Re: Rangers trade Soriano to Nationals
 

No, Fonz and Terrmel are not close in value. Soriano is well worth the monetary difference over Sledge.

As an offensive player, Soriano is much better than Brad Wilkerson, even as an outfielder. There is the little issue of $5M, which evens things out. But it only evens things out if the extra money is spent wisely. That's going to be very tough to do in this market.

Soriano's value takes a huge hit if he moves to the outfield, which is why I think this is a lose/lose deal. There are many ways the Rangers could have gone to get more value for Soriano. I can't tell if this is a win now move (which they hurt themselves) or a win in the future move (which they hurt themselves)? To me, it looks like a deal for the sake of making a deal. Either that or a salary purge. If it's the latter, get prospects for crying out loud.

I guess I'll say here, if this deal was the precursor to another deal for the Rangers, (ie Manny) then things might make sense. For the Nationals, if they deal Vidro, it makes more sense.

Re: Rangers trade Soriano to Nationals
 

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I can't decide. Which deal is worse, the Renteria deal or this one? SORIANO IS TWICE THE PLAYER of WILKERSON!!!!

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I have to seriously question your knowledge of baseball if you believe this to be true. Its 2005, not 1998.

Re: Rangers trade Soriano to Nationals
 

I think the point made earlier in the thread makes the most sense. This move is telling Nats fans "Hey look, we have somebody you've heard of. Come watch him play." This isn't going to make them any more competitive in the NL East but at least they have a player to market the team around, even if it is only for this year. However I don't know why the Rangers traded him for more hitters when they need pitching.

Re: Rangers trade Soriano to Nationals
 

SORIANO IS TWICE THE PLAYER of WILKERSON!!!!

you are insane. they are closer to equal if anything.

Re: Rangers trade Soriano to Nationals
 

soriano BRAR last 3 seasons (easier to do than EqA because we are discussing multiple players)

47 (2003)
20 (2004)
31 (2005)

lets weight then 3/2/1 and come up with an expected BRAR of 30 for 2006

wilkerson
32
43
27

projects to 33 BRAR for 2006

thats leaving out that wilkerson costs HALF AS MUCH AS SORIANO and a young cheap backup OF (who had a BRAR of 15 his rookie year) was thrown in?

ARE YOU KIDDING ME? this is the BEST deal of the offseason, for the rangers of course!

Re: Rangers trade Soriano to Nationals
 

This is the problem I have with Sabermetrics. As a general tool, it is very good at evaluating performance. In fact, from reading some of the explanations at BP, I believe that their theories are for the most part misinterpreted. But sometimes things get a little skewed. You can't honestly think that Wilkerson's performance over the last three years has been within 6 of Soriano? Also, it's nice how your little stats disregard 2002, which was Soriano's best year. It's likely that the stats don't give enough credit for Soriano's base stealing prowess. It's also very unlikely that they give Soriano any credit for his baserunning speed. 25 points in average and 25 K/162 for guys with the exact same OPS+ is going to make a big difference as well. To have Soriano and Wilkerson that close, the stats are lending too much value to the walk.

Re: Rangers trade Soriano to Nationals
 

Sabermetrics are not the be-all/end-all of player evaluation. Soriano is valuable for the offense he provides at a non-offensive position (2B). He is by all accounts (sabermetrically and traditional scouting) a horrible fielder. So moving him to LF diminishes his value. Speed diminishes with age as well. If I had to make a prediction, I'd say that Soriano will be lucky to hit 20 homers this year, and doesn't break a .750 OPS.

Re: Rangers trade Soriano to Nationals
 

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I think the point made earlier in the thread makes the most sense. This move is telling Nats fans "Hey look, we have somebody you've heard of. Come watch him play." This isn't going to make them any more competitive in the NL East but at least they have a player to market the team around, even if it is only for this year. However I don't know why the Rangers traded him for more hitters when they need pitching.

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Exactly. We traded one guy with decent power that strikes out allot and shouldnt lead off for another guy with decent power that strikes out allot and shouldnt lead off but happened to be on the Yankees.

This move had more to do with Bowdens resume more then the Nats roster I feel.

But whatever, if its gets people excited about the team and stops the stadium/ownership arguements for a couple days, fine.

A bad deal going worse!
 

Soriano will not change from second base.

Re: Rangers trade Soriano to Nationals
 

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This is the problem I have with Sabermetrics. As a general tool, it is very good at evaluating performance. In fact, from reading some of the explanations at BP, I believe that their theories are for the most part misinterpreted. But sometimes things get a little skewed. You can't honestly think that Wilkerson's performance over the last three years has been within 6 of Soriano? Also, it's nice how your little stats disregard 2002, which was Soriano's best year. It's likely that the stats don't give enough credit for Soriano's base stealing prowess. It's also very unlikely that they give Soriano any credit for his baserunning speed. 25 points in average and 25 K/162 for guys with the exact same OPS+ is going to make a big difference as well. To have Soriano and Wilkerson that close, the stats are lending too much value to the walk.

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when i do evaluations like that, i only go back 3 years as a norm. should i go back 4 and count 4 seasons ago as 1/2 weight? at best its going to mean they are worth the same equally (offense) going forward.

You can't honestly think that Wilkerson's performance over the last three years has been within 6 of Soriano?

no, i honestly think that wilkerson has been BETTER! funny thing is, i have provided stats to prove it.

It's likely that the stats don't give enough credit for Soriano's base stealing prowess.

soriano has stolen bases at a 80% clip throughout his career. the break even point is 78% i think. so yeah, it adds some value.

25 points in average and 25 K/162 for guys with the exact same OPS+ is going to make a big difference as well. To have Soriano and Wilkerson that close, the stats are lending too much value to the walk.

the walk will never get enough credit. NEVER.

i will give you the benefit of the doubt and say that soriano mayb be better than wilkerson by maybe 3 runs a season, just so you wont keep harping on the soriano > wilkerson angle.

ok, so wilkerson makes half of what soriano makes AND they threw in a 4th outfielder AND a low level prosepect

i mean really, you rhink this was a steal for the NATS? i mean WOW!

Re: Rangers trade Soriano to Nationals
 

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mean really, you rhink this was a steal for the NATS? i mean WOW!

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I think this is a bad deal for both teams. The Rangers lose more.

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soriano has stolen bases at a 80% clip throughout his career. the break even point is 78% i think. so yeah, it adds some value.


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BP quotes 75%, but then when I do the math for run EV, it turns out to be closer to 70%, maybe even less. Steals are all about situations though, and I don't want to go into that. Suffice it to say, that statheads don't give enough credit to the stolen base.


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funny thing is, i have provided stats to prove it.


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Vince Lombardi said something about stats. I know he's an oldtimer, but he was goot.

You have provided stats to prove they are about equal, with Soriano having a slight edge. But those stats have undervalued Soriano's basestealing speed, given him no credit at all for his baserunning speed, and hardly accounted for K's and batting average. Those are all areas where Soriano has a big advantage.

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when i do evaluations like that, i only go back 3 years as a norm. should i go back 4 and count 4 seasons ago as 1/2 weight? at best its going to mean they are worth the same equally (offense) going forward.


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The problem here is sample size. Even over the course of a career, there will be significant statistical variance. What I would do is figure out what player they are, and when they became that player. Soriano is clearly no worse now than he was in 2002. We are just dealing with statistical variance.

Going forward, niether player should get much better or much worse. They are both in the peak of thier career, and will be for at least two more years.

Re: Rangers trade Soriano to Nationals
 

I think this is a bad deal for both teams. The Rangers lose more.

i think its such a clear win for the rangers that its not even worth debate.




Going forward, niether player should get much better or much worse. They are both in the peak of thier career, and will be for at least two more years.

fine, whatever. i even conceded that soriano is worth more (slightly) yet you fail to recognize that he is paid twice as much AND the rangers got anotehr ML player who is young an cheap.

BP quotes 75%, but then when I do the math for run EV, it turns out to be closer to 70%, maybe even less. Steals are all about situations though, and I don't want to go into that. Suffice it to say, that statheads don't give enough credit to the stolen base.

and your evidence that the steal is worht more than 75% is where? is that 5% edge on 30 something occasions worth 3million? lol, no.

as for all this K nonsense, i can and will say that players who draw most of their OBP from walks tend to have longer and better careers, with less variance.


The problem here is sample size. Even over the course of a career, there will be significant statistical variance. What I would do is figure out what player they are, and when they became that player. Soriano is clearly no worse now than he was in 2002. We are just dealing with statistical variance.

3 seasons of weighted data isnt enough? 1500 at bats? including a season from 4 years ago when projecting a players performance is retarded.

i am done with this debate. we are not even in the same playing field when it comes to this stuff.

Re: Rangers trade Soriano to Nationals
 

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we are not even in the same playing field when it comes to this stuff

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If you think 1500 AB's is going to give us EXACT information and eliminate significant statistical variance, then I agree.

Re: Rangers trade Soriano to Nationals
 

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we are not even in the same playing field when it comes to this stuff

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If you think 1500 AB's is going to give us EXACT information and eliminate significant statistical variance, then I agree.

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nothing is perfect of course, but usuing 3 seasons worth of data and weighting it in a 3/2/1 fashion is sufficient IMO.

Re: Rangers trade Soriano to Nationals
 

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SORIANO IS TWICE THE PLAYER of WILKERSON!!!!


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Screw who is the better player. Who is going to be doing all the crappy local tv ads for the Nats? Wilkerson was gold in those. Soriano better start doing some Eastern Motors commercials or something or Im going to be bitter...Sorry if this makes little sense to those outside DC area.

Re: Rangers trade Soriano to Nationals
 

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It's likely that the stats don't give enough credit for Soriano's base stealing prowess. It's also very unlikely that they give Soriano any credit for his baserunning speed. 25 points in average and 25 K/162 for guys with the exact same OPS+ is going to make a big difference as well. To have Soriano and Wilkerson that close, the stats are lending too much value to the walk.

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Please, just shut up. You have no idea what you're talking about.

Batting average is meaningless. The reason? OPS takes into account batting average. BA is a large component of both OBP and SLG. If you weight it any more than that, you are giving it a larger weight than it deserves.

For instance, take two players:

One has a BA/OBP/SLG line of .330/.400/.500 - The other has a BA/OBP/SLG line of .260/.400/.500.

You would argue that the first guy is vastly superior. He's not. And going forward, the second guy is a much better pick. Not only does he get more walks, but he also hits for a whole lot more power. That makes up for the batting average difference. People sometimes confuse SLG for "power." But SLG is really BA + power. Power is SLG-BA or ISO.

So, the real numbers for these guys are:
BA/IsoD/IsoP
.330/.070/.170
.260/.140/.240

That's batting average, Isolated Discipline (OBP-BA), and Isolated Power(SLG-BA). As you can see, BA is already given a pretty hefty weight. It's valued as twice as important as either walk rate or power rate.

Second, you just sound stupid when you say stuff like "the stats lend too much value to this, too little value to that." Do you have any idea how much smarter the people who came up with these stats are than you? Or me? Do you know how much analysis has gone into determining the value of the SB? The value of baserunning? The value of the strikeout (which by the way, is basically just another out because it rules out the DP)?

They've done all this. They've come up with a number to show how good these players are - and Soriano is just not that much better. The numbers don't describe what type of player each is. They are not perfect. But to suggest something like "this guy is twice as good as that guy" when the numbers are nearly identical, is just dumb.

Re: Rangers trade Soriano to Nationals
 

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The Nats would rather be sustainable than champs at this point.

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I find this hard to believe, but I can see them thinking sustainable is more realistic.

Re: A bad deal going worse!
 

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Soriano will not change from second base.

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Wow, this makes the move even more retarded unless they somehow flip Sori for something more valuable than Wilkerson + Sledge. Soriano is a horrible second baseman, and Jose Vidro is better than him all around.

Re: A bad deal going worse!
 

Watch them trade Vidro. That would be hilarious.