If you had $25k and needed $100k
 

A hypothetical question, although for a while, I was afraid it was real, so I had to put some serious thought into it....here's the scenario:

My brother was in a major car accident. He was 23, and had no insurance. My parents were able to contribute, but we were still about $100k short of what we needed to give him the proper care to save his life. I had $25k, and about three days to figure out a way to turn it into $100k. We really had no other options.

If you had to take a shot like this, what would you do? Please forget for a moment that there are other options besides Vegas (we obviously figured out a way). I had to think about this a lot, and it still intrigues me from time to time.

What casino game to you try...do you just go big early, or try to build? I leaned towards blackjack, as I know the game well...to the point of having learned to count cards, etc. My problem is that I am not a great card counter, and I'm not going for the long run here. This is all short term...high risk of ruin.

What is the best approach?

Re: If you had $25k and needed $100k
 

Use $20K to bribe an insurance agent to back date a policy, and the rest for the premium.

Re: If you had $25k and needed $100k
 

Craps, easy. Playing pass line (or don't pass line) and maximum odds can put the house advantage well under 1%. One place offers 100X odds in vegas. And go big early.

Re: If you had $25k and needed $100k
 

Taking odds does not change the HA!!!

the HA is fixed and no matter how much odds you take it is still the same as it was before you took any odds!

Re: If you had $25k and needed $100k
 

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Taking odds does not change the HA!!!

the HA is fixed and no matter how much odds you take it is still the same as it was before you took any odds!

[/ QUOTE ]

I suppose the wizard of odds is wrong then.

Re: If you had $25k and needed $100k
 

I think what he means is, taking odds does not change the house advantage of the original Pass Line bet, which still remains at 1.41% no matter how much odds you place behind it.

the COMBINED house edge of the odds and pass line can be reduced by taking as much as possible, but the TOTAL EXPECTATION to the house remains the same since you have to risk a higher amount overall to lower that house edge in the first place. this is why you double down in blackjack according to basic strategy even when your chances of winning the hand are lowered. the house advantage increases but so does your expectation on that particular hand.

however, in craps there is very little you can do (if anything) to alter the long-term expectation of the pass line bet. the main thing that odds do is increase volatility of outcome for both the player and the house. this is why the multipliers are capped even though mathematically it doesn't make a difference to either party.

Re: If you had $25k and needed $100k
 

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we obviously figured out a way

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So how'd you do it?

Re: If you had $25k and needed $100k
 

Aren't hospitals required to treat emergency cases, even if people can't pay? If I were in that situation, I'd get my treatment, then declare bankruptcy.

To quadruple up, you want to bet the lowest possible amount at the lowest possible house advantage. Specifically, you want to minimize Wager * HA. Ideally, you'd make a single $25,000 bet paying $100,000 at 3:1. Two consecutive 2:1 bets would be just as good.

I'd go to the Four Queens and play blackjack switch for 1/5th of my stack per hand with a big strategy card. This is small enough that you can split and double as needed, but large enough that you won't spend a lot of time going up and down before busting out or reaching your target. This extra wagering increases HA. My intuition is that the extra wagering you would do playing bj switch would count for less than the higher HA at craps.

Re: If you had $25k and needed $100k
 

[ QUOTE ]
Aren't hospitals required to treat emergency cases, even if people can't pay? If I were in that situation, I'd get my treatment, then declare bankruptcy.

To quadruple up, you want to bet the lowest possible amount at the lowest possible house advantage. Specifically, you want to minimize Wager * HA. Ideally, you'd make a single $25,000 bet paying $100,000 at 3:1. Two consecutive 2:1 bets would be just as good.

I'd go to the Four Queens and play blackjack switch for 1/5th of my stack per hand with a big strategy card. This is small enough that you can split and double as needed, but large enough that you won't spend a lot of time going up and down before busting out or reaching your target. This extra wagering increases HA. My intuition is that the extra wagering you would do playing bj switch would count for less than the higher HA at craps.

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House edges for craps w/ full odds:
5X odds 0.326%
10X odds 0.184%
20X odds 0.099%
100X odds 0.021%

House edge for blackjack varies, but I don't think you can find a game with much less than 1% house edge. This is excluding counting, of course.

Re: If you had $25k and needed $100k
 

So if I get into an accident and I don't have any ID..would they just let me die, not knowing if I had insurance????

Re: If you had $25k and needed $100k
 

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So if I get into an accident and I don't have any ID..would they just let me die, not knowing if I had insurance????

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By law, hospitals have to admit people that are about to die, such as would be the case in a car accident. I'm not sure where hospitals draw the line on what is "about to die", though.

Re: If you had $25k and needed $100k
 

Baccarat, looking for a bank run to win two double-up bets and one small bet (three in a row)

Re: If you had $25k and needed $100k
 

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By law, hospitals have to admit people that are about to die, such as would be the case in a car accident. I'm not sure where hospitals draw the line on what is "about to die", though.

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I'm pretty sure it doesn't have to be life threatening. A friend of mine got his arm badly infected and went to a hospital with no id and no proof of insurance and they treated him.

If you know how to count I would just wander around and back count until I found a great shoe. Then, bet big, but make sure to have enough bets to play optimally (ie. always able to split and DD the max amount).

Re: If you had $25k and needed $100k
 

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Quote:
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So if I get into an accident and I don't have any ID..would they just let me die, not knowing if I had insurance????


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By law, hospitals have to admit people that are about to die, such as would be the case in a car accident. I'm not sure where hospitals draw the line on what is "about to die", though.

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This refers to emergency treatment, or to stabilize a patient. For things like cancer they will not treat you without payment, even if the type of cancer is treatable and curable, and fatal without treatment.

Re: If you had $25k and needed $100k
 

[ QUOTE ]

House edges for craps w/ full odds:
5X odds 0.326%
10X odds 0.184%
20X odds 0.099%
100X odds 0.021%


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True, but if you make a $100 pass line bet and the edge on that bet is $1, then using your example and plugging real numbers in:

House edges for craps w/ full odds:
5X odds $1
10X odds $1
20X odds $1
100X odds $1

Which is why some of us say the house edge isn't changed by laying odds. Expressed as a percentage, it does...but even a 100000x odds, the house still has an expectation of $1.

Re: If you had $25k and needed $100k
 

The guys said it was a car accident. But even if it was cancer..if my family member had a half decent job and 25k how could the hospital (or a bank for that matter) not take the 25k and put the rest on some kind of payment plan. This story is weird.

Re: If you had $25k and needed $100k
 

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House edge for blackjack varies, but I don't think you can find a game with much less than 1% house edge. This is excluding counting, of course.

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Blackjack switch is not the same game as blackjack. Odds info. HA is 0.2% at the 4 Queens, or 0.05% at many online casinos. Does anyone actually offer 100x odds at craps?

Re: If you had $25k and needed $100k
 

Buy $25k worth of crack from a wholesaler, repackage and resell it for 5x what you bought it for.

Re: If you had $25k and needed $100k
 

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Buy $25k worth of crack from a wholesaler, repackage and resell it for 5x what you bought it for.

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I believe this strategy is known as the "DeLorean".

Re: If you had $25k and needed $100k
 

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Blackjack switch is not the same game as blackjack. Odds info. HA is 0.2% at the 4 Queens, or 0.05% at many online casinos.

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Wow, I didn't realize that there was a card game with a HA that low. I'll have to check it out next time I'm in Vegas.

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Does anyone actually offer 100x odds at craps?

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Casino Royale on the Strip.

Re: If you had $25k and needed $100k
 

put the old band back together

[img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: If you had $25k and needed $100k
 

Baccarat ... two bets on the banker.

No decisions to make and low house edge.

Of course, the commission means you'll come up a bit short.

I guess betting red/black on a French roulette table which gives you back half your bet on the 0 wouldn't be too bad either.

Re: If you had $25k and needed $100k
 

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The guys said it was a car accident. But even if it was cancer..if my family member had a half decent job and 25k how could the hospital (or a bank for that matter) not take the 25k and put the rest on some kind of payment plan. This story is weird.

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Heck, I read in the paper where some lady had some cancer where they took out all her white cells or something, all her spleen cells or something, I don't remember, and do something to them, and then inject them back into her.

Anyway, AFTER THEY TOOK OUT HER SPLEEN CELLS, they found out her insurance didn't cover the procedure, AND SO THEY DIDN"T INJECT HER IMMUNE CELLS BACK INTO HER.

The newspaper article was about how her family was suing the hospital. She, of course, died.

Re: If you had $25k and needed $100k
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The guys said it was a car accident. But even if it was cancer..if my family member had a half decent job and 25k how could the hospital (or a bank for that matter) not take the 25k and put the rest on some kind of payment plan. This story is weird.

[/ QUOTE ]

Heck, I read in the paper where some lady had some cancer where they took out all her white cells or something, all her spleen cells or something, I don't remember, and do something to them, and then inject them back into her.

Anyway, AFTER THEY TOOK OUT HER SPLEEN CELLS, they found out her insurance didn't cover the procedure, AND SO THEY DIDN"T INJECT HER IMMUNE CELLS BACK INTO HER.

The newspaper article was about how her family was suing the hospital. She, of course, died.

[/ QUOTE ]

This story cannot conceivably be true.

Re: If you had $25k and needed $100k
 

I agree it's a strange story.

Two things:
[ QUOTE ]
but we were still about $100k short of what we needed to give him the proper care

Please forget for a moment that there are other options besides Vegas (we obviously figured out a way).


[/ QUOTE ]
Our "way" was to pay for the best care. We figured out a way to get the money, and I never meant to imply that my brother was going to be left on the street. But there was a proper and expensive option, and there was a stand and look helplessly option. It wasn't a tough choice.. It was just a matter of how.

The only reason I put in any details was to show that it was a short term proposition, and that $25k meant nothing when the bigger picture was at stake.

Now, back to the options, and thanks for the good responses.

Re: If you had $25k and needed $100k
 

Regarding the whole craps HA with odds debate, at the end of the day, this would be the best way to make money. The reason why is because the big money on the odds would be an even money proposition. Basically, if you bet $100 on pass, you could put 10k behind (with 100X odds) and that 10k would be an even money bet. The problem is that the variance is huge. Whatever number the shooter throws, you are more like to hit a 7 than any other number. So percentage wise, it's the best bet. Results wise, you may want to find a bet where the results themselves are in the form of half wins and half losses, such as baccarat, blackjack, or distant thirdly roulette.

But truthfully, when in a situation where you need to make a lot of money in a short amount of time, we should take a page from every 80's teen movie and throw a bitchin' party (before the parents get back into town, of course).

Re: If you had $25k and needed $100k
 

In all honesty I would say that the best way to make 100k in a short period is going to be by illegal means. If my brothers life was on the line you can bet that I am going to be out running drugs or whatever else it takes to get that money. If it was the last day and I was still short I would put on the ski mask and find the rest of it.

Theres no way in hell I would let one of my family members die because of money. I may be in prison for trying but I damn sure wouldnt sit around and hope to win some gamble.

Re: If you had $25k and needed $100k
 

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This story cannot conceivably be true.

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If you want to send me some money I'll go down to the library and research it for you. San Diego Union Tribune, circa 1996-1997.

What, next you'll be telling me that it's illegal for insurance companies to cancel your insurance?

Re: If you had $25k and needed $100k
 

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If my brothers life was on the line you can bet that I am going to be out running drugs or whatever else it takes to get that money.

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I saw a really good movie based on that premise. It was called Half-Baked.

Have you ever eaten Denny's Grand Slam breakfast... on WEED?

Re: If you had $25k and needed $100k
 

half-baked was a great movie!

If we consider illegal activites what would be the fastest way to turn 25k into 100k? I would think running a load of drugs from mexico or canada into the us or maybe going to cuba and smuggling some cuban cigars and then selling them when you get home.

Re: If you had $25k and needed $100k
 

[ QUOTE ]
half-baked was a great movie!

If we consider illegal activites what would be the fastest way to turn 25k into 100k? I would think running a load of drugs from mexico or canada into the us or maybe going to cuba and smuggling some cuban cigars and then selling them when you get home.

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I don't think smuggling anything into the US is a good gamble right now, unless you can get your grandma to do the driving.

Re: If you had $25k and needed $100k
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
half-baked was a great movie!

If we consider illegal activites what would be the fastest way to turn 25k into 100k? I would think running a load of drugs from mexico or canada into the us or maybe going to cuba and smuggling some cuban cigars and then selling them when you get home.

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I don't think smuggling anything into the US is a good gamble right now, unless you can get your grandma to do the driving.

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I hate to say it, but I've crossed the Washington-Canada border multiple times (probably about 40+ times over my lifetime) and out of that, I've only been searched once. And that was when an idiot friend of mine, when asked if we had any weapons said, "Only these fists of fury".

We beat the hell out of him when we got to whistler though since the stop over costed us a nice 2 hours that we could've been driving.

Re: If you had $25k and needed $100k
 

Going into Montana from Alberta with my fiance and her parents we had our car searched, but maybe that's because I was born in Russia.

Re: If you had $25k and needed $100k
 

on my only 3 trips to whistler in BC I have never been searched even after telling the guys that we had more than 1L of liqour and a box of cigars.

Re: If you had $25k and needed $100k
 

[ QUOTE ]
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Buy $25k worth of crack from a wholesaler, repackage and resell it for 5x what you bought it for.

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I believe this strategy is known as the "DeLorean".

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Only if you omit instruction #2: Don't get caught.