Missed river value bet
 

Villain is TAGish, 14/7/2

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, BB folds, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (8 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls.

River: (10 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks.

Final Pot: 10 BB

Re: Missed river value bet
 

super easy bet. Villain could have AQ, 99, TT, AJ, AT

Re: Missed river value bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
super easy bet. Villain could have AQ, 99, TT, AJ, AT

[/ QUOTE ]
It's not. Your range is too small.

Re: Missed river value bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's not. Your range is too small

[/ QUOTE ]


Obviously villain could have more hands than that. I think it's a bet/fold. I mean that those are possible/likely hands that villain could have that he might call with and loose.

Re: Missed river value bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's not. Your range is too small

[/ QUOTE ]
Obviously villain could have more hands than that. I think it's a bet/fold. I mean that those are possible/likely hands that villain could have that he might call with and loose.

[/ QUOTE ]
A TAG Villian would have to view Hero as a maniac to be calling down here with A-high.

Re: Missed river value bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
super easy bet. Villain could have AQ, 99, TT, AJ, AT

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, but AQ, AJ, and AT are not calling you, so your bet is worthless. AK is raising you and you have to call. I am not saying that you should not bet, but it's NOT a super easy bet.

Re: Missed river value bet
 

i think there is very thin value in a bet on the river against some opponents. the thing is you run into the "with what worse hands will they call?" scenario. A-high is not calling. so he would likely need a smaller pocket pair that is not a passively played set or straight, and i don't see AK folding this river frequently enough to show profit. he may have the Adw/broadway or some such hand with a high diamond in it like KQ, etc. but that will call the river. i think when called you are behind most every time, and otherwise they fold except for a couple combos. i could be wrong, but this is my thinking here. i think the check is fine.

Re: Missed river value bet
 

Ace high will call most of the time. He's gone this far and it'd be a 11 bb pot.

Re: Missed river value bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ace high will call most of the time. He's gone this far and it'd be a 11 bb pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

if he has an Ace it is likely a diamond and i think you are overestimating the number of times he calls. so what does he think you have, a worse Ace? no, no. one thing i would like about a river bet is it would be pretty sweet to fold QQ. i still don't know if the likelihood of that scenario would swing it to be valueable. how villain views hero would be a big factor in calling with A-high, so that must be considered. i still think mostly better hands will call in a vacuum, but given how they view each other could swing it the other way.

Re: Missed river value bet
 

Every single better hand will call you 100% of the time so there's no point even considering that they'd fold to one extra bet.

The only way Ace high doesn't call here is if he has a very good read on hero, which he may have. (Or if it's a weak ace)

Re: Missed river value bet
 

i don't think Ace high calls everytime. the question is do they call enough for it to show value? i don't think you can say HELL YES so confidently. i think it is close. i also don't mind the river check and in the long run cannot see it being a big loss of value for the bets you save when you are behind and the risk of being bluffraised(which may not even be a factor, i am just throwing it out there because some people may fold to it). obviously, a good read could change some things.

Re: Missed river value bet
 

If you're intent on getting to showdown - checking and calling is the correct play.

Villian is not folding a better hand enough of the time to give a bet value and he'll always call with hands that are ahead. However, given the texture of this board (4-straight/3-flush) there are many hands that are ahead that won't bet and we see showdown for free. OTOH - there are also many hands (ie. A-high) that might take a shot at the pot when checked to but, wouldn't have called a river bet.

Re: Missed river value bet
 

oh, and i forgot to add that a major reason i like a river check is not just to save a bet, but to induce a bluff out of lesser hands that would not have called a bet. i can't believe i did not mention that part.

edit to say crunchy already said this and i agree.

Re: Missed river value bet
 

i dont think you have to bet here man. this board is extremely frightening and large enough to have to call a river raise. i like the check/call expecially, especially since villain is a TAG, and not an awful passive call station fish that wont bet/raise with the nuts but calls down with a pair of 4's

Results
 

Villain had TT and MHIG.