KQo Live at the Wynn <3
 

The Best Casino on Earth - 8/16

I have been at the table for not very long so my image is guy who has a runny nose and raises good cards so far.

From the few orbits I've played, the SB in this hand is an old guy who is slighty loose and passive. The UTG+2 is a decent young Asian dude who plays decent and doesn't get out of line postflop, but his open-limping range is too wide.

Preflop: Some folds, UTG+2 limps, more folds to me in the CO and I raise K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], more folds and SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6.5 SB)
SB checks, UTG+2 checks, I bet, SB calls, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4.25 BB)
SB checks, UTG+2 bets, I call(?), SB calls.

River: T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (7.25BB)
SB bets, UTG+2 raises, I'm like?

Re: KQo Live at the Wynn <3
 

So "F*&amp;K live play" has become "F&amp;*K live play in Los Angeles?"

The Wynn does rule.

Anyway, I think the turn call is close but fine, given the gutshots and likely clean overcards (I'd dirty them up a bit in the case of KJ/QJ, but at least 4 outs for the 6 overcards, so 8 outs total or so), and as for the river -- ugh I hate it but my gut is telling me to fold.

Then again, my gut sucks at poker.

(By the way, I pay off online, but I fold live because live play tends to be a bit more passive, especially on the river where a flush-board is obvious).

Re: KQo Live at the Wynn <3
 

I'm dislike the turn call.

But the bigger question is the river. Since he's loose there are a lot of pair/flush draw combos he could have on the turn, but there are also a lot of two pair/etc. hands he could have here. So I call, reluctantly, but I do expect to be good ~20% of the time.

Re: KQo Live at the Wynn <3
 

I think a call is okay on the turn only because SB is passive and the chance of a checkraise is small. As for the river, I hate to fold (don't even know if I could) but I think you should. SB is passive, so he has a hand. Since he didn't wake up until the 10 hit, that made it. It could be a flush or it could be the same straight. The turn bet followed by river raise makes me think UTG has a flush and was semi-bluffing with something like 5-6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or maybe something bigger, like QJ [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] not want you to take a free card with overs. You said he was loose preflop, but is he loose enough to limp with 5-6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]? If not, I'd guess QJ [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Re: KQo Live at the Wynn <3
 

I would fold the turn. Based on my estimate you have 7 pure outs here, which means you need pots odds of approx 6-1 to call, you are getting 5.25-1 to call and you are not closing the action. Implied odds are not much of a factor since you only have 3 outs to the nuts. I would estimate your implied odds to be zero, since many of your outs will cost you a bet just as much as it makes you a bet, and what little implied odds you do have from your 3 nut outs is probably negated in the long run by the fact that you are not closing the action, which means it will sometimes cost you 2BB to see this river. Given that you called the turn, I would fold the river. I cannot say that folding this river is correct, Im just telling you what i would do. The UTG+2 guy did donk the turn on the 3 of hearts which means he mightve had a pair/flushdraw type hand(Ah4h) or just a naked flush draw. His turn action combined with his river raise is very consistent with a made flush, and the SB could have a flush also.

Re: KQo Live at the Wynn <3
 

It all depends on how many outs you give yourself to make your decision on the turn. I'm re-reading King Yao's book and I'm trying to use DIPO more because I think it's a simple way to calculate pot odds. If you give yourself 7 outs, you have an easy call.

7 outs x 6.25 EPS = 43.75 &gt;
Non-outs = 39

However, if you discount your outs more down to 6, you now have a fold.

6 x 6.25 = 37.5 &lt;
Non-outs = 40

Of course, if you add 1/2 a BB because you are expecting SB to call more often than fold or raise then they are both calls. I think it's close enough to make it a call, as it will only be a small mistake.

On a side note, does the majority of posters use DIPO at the table?

Re: KQo Live at the Wynn <3
 

[ QUOTE ]
It all depends on how many outs you give yourself to make your decision on the turn. I'm re-reading King Yao's book and I'm trying to use DIPO more because I think it's a simple way to calculate pot odds. If you give yourself 7 outs, you have an easy call.

7 outs x 6.25 EPS = 43.75 &gt;
Non-outs = 39

However, if you discount your outs more down to 6, you now have a fold.

6 x 6.25 = 37.5 &lt;
Non-outs = 40

Of course, if you add 1/2 a BB because you are expecting SB to call more often than fold or raise then they are both calls. I think it's close enough to make it a call, as it will only be a small mistake.

On a side note, does the majority of posters use DIPO at the table?

[/ QUOTE ]
Ive read that book too, and I would venture to say that 99% of all the posters here do not use DIPO. The DIPO calculations are simply not necessary. When I play poker, I estimate how many outs I have, I then figure out how much of an underdog I am compared to the pot odds/implied odds, and then I make my decision to call or fold. I think thats how most people do it. Based on my methods, if the hero has 7 pure outs he is not getting the odds to continue, I will admit though it is very close, and calling can only be a very small mistake at best. I think the crux of this hand is the river decision.

Re: KQo Live at the Wynn <3
 

Wow, I'm actually fairly shocked at some of the responses so far. When I first looked at the hand I thought the question on the river was b/w calling and a 3bet. But everyone is talking about a fold as the best option?!? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

So first off I think the Turn is close, but I don't mind the call.

River: SB donks his runner runner flush? I think he either hit his two pair with J10, J9, 109, etc. or hit his straight and doens't want it checked through.

As to utg+2 I expect to see a set. You think he is donking a FD on the turn? Seems odd to me. I think he doesn't want his TP, 2 pair or set checked through. Then he either hits two pair or still has a set on the river so he raises.

I just don't see how we are so concerned with the runner-runner flush when there are so many other options out there. Sure we might see a flush but I expect to be good here a ton wih the nut straight and only a flush beating us.

I'm calling at the least and consdering a 3bet.

Re: KQo Live at the Wynn <3
 

Live players, especially in Vegas, don't raise straight and flush boards with 2 pair or a set. At least in my experience.

Re: KQo Live at the Wynn <3
 

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I'm calling at the least and consdering a 3bet.

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you cant raise the river, but i agree that a call is in order

Re: KQo Live at the Wynn <3
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would fold the turn. Based on my estimate you have 7 pure outs here, which means you need pots odds of approx 6-1 to call, you are getting 5.25-1 to call and you are not closing the action. Implied odds are not much of a factor since you only have 3 outs to the nuts. I would estimate your implied odds to be zero, since many of your outs will cost you a bet just as much as it makes you a bet, and what little implied odds you do have from your 3 nut outs is probably negated in the long run by the fact that you are not closing the action, which means it will sometimes cost you 2BB to see this river. Given that you called the turn, I would fold the river. I cannot say that folding this river is correct, Im just telling you what i would do. The UTG+2 guy did donk the turn on the 3 of hearts which means he mightve had a pair/flushdraw type hand(Ah4h) or just a naked flush draw. His turn action combined with his river raise is very consistent with a made flush, and the SB could have a flush also.

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You need about 5.5:1, so it's pretty damned close when you expect the other guy to call and not raise, which, from what I've seen of live poker, is gonna happen fairly often.

Anyway. Just MHO.

Rob

Re: KQo Live at the Wynn <3
 

[ QUOTE ]
Live players, especially in Vegas, don't raise straight and flush boards with 2 pair or a set. At least in my experience.

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Ok fair enough. But the same players will donk a FD on the turn like that?

That is different from what I'm used to.

Re: KQo Live at the Wynn <3
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would fold the turn. Based on my estimate you have 7 pure outs here, which means you need pots odds of approx 6-1 to call, you are getting 5.25-1 to call and you are not closing the action. Implied odds are not much of a factor since you only have 3 outs to the nuts. I would estimate your implied odds to be zero, since many of your outs will cost you a bet just as much as it makes you a bet, and what little implied odds you do have from your 3 nut outs is probably negated in the long run by the fact that you are not closing the action, which means it will sometimes cost you 2BB to see this river. Given that you called the turn, I would fold the river. I cannot say that folding this river is correct, Im just telling you what i would do. The UTG+2 guy did donk the turn on the 3 of hearts which means he mightve had a pair/flushdraw type hand(Ah4h) or just a naked flush draw. His turn action combined with his river raise is very consistent with a made flush, and the SB could have a flush also.

[/ QUOTE ]

You need about 5.5:1, so it's pretty damned close when you expect the other guy to call and not raise, which, from what I've seen of live poker, is gonna happen fairly often.

Anyway. Just MHO.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]
It is close, If I knew the other guy was gonna just call also, I would call, but i dont know this. The other guy could very well fold, and sometimes he certainly will raise. No matter what though, this pot odds situation is very close. I'm still folding here for the reasons ive listed, but im not expecting to get rich making these kind of folds.

Re: KQo Live at the Wynn <3
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Live players, especially in Vegas, don't raise straight and flush boards with 2 pair or a set. At least in my experience.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok fair enough. But the same players will donk a FD on the turn like that?

That is different from what I'm used to.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think if he flopped a set or two pair, he's checkraising the flop, no? I could see him deciding to lead if he hit two pair on the turn and didn't want it to get checked through, but I doubt the 3 gave him two pair.

Re: KQo Live at the Wynn <3
 

The turn is really close, as everyone else has noted. I am lazy and tend to just approximate to about 7.5 outs, so its pretty marginal. Obviously flush draws significantly alter this.

Is UTG+2 the type to wait for a safe turn? I know he is loose preflop, but you also said he was decent. If he had a flush draw I would expect a bet on flop if anywhere, not turn. However he might not do that in fear of you raising and knocking out SB. So why would he lead the turn with a flush draw, a time where most draws prefer to play cheaply? I would expect a flush from SB more than UTG.

Anyway, I would have a tough time on this one. If SB looked pissed about the raise I'm calling. I'm probably calling anyway. For some reason I don't think UTG+2 has flush. But at same time, w/ two pair that is a tough river raise. But, He may think you have overs and not put enough thought into implications of that river, and he may think SB is just terrible.

Re: KQo Live at the Wynn <3
 

You're getting about 5 to 1 on a call on the river (unless you believe the SB will reraise of course). Is a straight good in this situation 1 out of 5 times? I'd call myself, unless I had a major tell on one or both of these players.

Re: KQo Live at the Wynn <3
 

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The other guy could very well fold, and sometimes he certainly will raise.

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Just based on the read of him, and old-guy live players around the world, the turn-checkraise was only happening a very small percentage of the time.

Re: KQo Live at the Wynn <3
 

hey shant, what did they showdown?

Re: KQo Live at the Wynn <3
 

When he bet the turn I thought pair+flush draw so I felt like folding the river because live players usually only raise the river with big hands, but I felt like he could've had a set or 2-pair so I called and the old guy folded which I found really strange.

UTG+2 had J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Re: KQo Live at the Wynn <3
 

PF and Flop OK, I would have folded the turn, but now that you are at the river call the 2 bets. I do not see SB re raising but if he does and UTG+2 calls, fold.

Re: KQo Live at the Wynn <3
 

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UTG+2 had J6

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well, he played the last two streets well.