From the Text Book: HAND READING
 

For all aspiring poker demons, a hand reading exercise!

TABLE: Playing quite tight, and most hands are getting raised PF. Player to my immediate left is loose (V$IP 40%) to the Button they are tighter (typically V$IP 15-17) but do know where to find the raise button. Button is unknown, Blinds are somewhat loose.

I feel strangely confident that a limp will get raised, so why not go for the text-book LRR. I have not done it in a long time... [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

The man to watch here is on the Button.


$2/$4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Naphand is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Naphand calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Naphand 3-bets</font>, MP1 calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Naphand bets</font>, MP1 calls, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Naphand 3-bets</font>, MP1 folds, CO folds, Button calls.

<font color=" blue">Thus far I feel pretty pleased with myself.</font>

Turn: (10.75 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Naphand bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, Naphand calls.

<font color=" blue">Damn! That was unexpected. I have to call this down IMO.</font>

River: (14.75 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Naphand checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, Naphand calls.

Final Pot: 16.75 BB


OK people, tell me what Button has.

PS
This is not so hard, but if we get a sufficient response I may run a weekly "Guess the hand for $20" post... [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Re: From the Text Book: HAND READING
 

Pocket 3's or 4's
bc

Re: From the Text Book: HAND READING
 

Why do you think this is not so hard? You have no read on button and the hand he's representing is 65 or maybe 77. However, if he would call a raise w/ 65, I see no reason that he couldn't have any number of made hands where he would wait until the turn to raise you - 43 or any set, for instance.

Re: From the Text Book: HAND READING
 

[ QUOTE ]
Pocket 3's or 4's
bc

[/ QUOTE ]

or 56s.

-d

Re: From the Text Book: HAND READING
 

Seems like a large number of hands are possible, given the button is unknown.

In order of likelihood, I'll go with:

1) AQs/AQ - 40%
2) KQs - 15%
3) 44 - 10%
4) 33 - 10%
5) 77 - 10%
5) 56s - 5%
6) KK or QQ - 5%
7) 88-TT - 5%

EDIT: to add 77 into the mix.

Re: From the Text Book: HAND READING
 

[ QUOTE ]
Button is unknown

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a bad hand reading exercise.

All you know is that the button cold called, then raised on the turn against a player who limp-reraised preflop and three-bet the flop, then bet the river when checked to.

The button could hold a wide range of hands including 33, 44, 77, AQ, if he's a "normal" player, or he could have something stronger like QQ or KK if he's more rockish, or he could have total trash like Q7s if he is a LAG.

Without a read on this player, it is impossible to pinpoint this guy on a hand.

Re: From the Text Book: HAND READING
 

[ QUOTE ]

56s.


[/ QUOTE ]

Or an oddly played QQ. I swear there are so many people that are afraid to 3-bet queens preflop.

Re: From the Text Book: HAND READING
 

Against a typical player, you're going to get shown 44 or 33 here a VERY high percentage of the time. he will have QQ some of the time and chosen not to have 3-bet preflop, but I think that is probably not a large part of his range. While I don't think you can completely rule out AQ (somewhat logical) or 56 (very remote), I think the two lower sets are in his hand &gt; 80% of the time. He almost hung out a sign for you when he called the 3-bet on the flop and then raised the turn.

Assuming you're unknown to him as well, he has to put you on aces or kings (or something similar) because of the LRR, so he will stop raising with AQ and either call down or fold. without a read, 56 gets a very small portion of his range. very few typical players will go for three bets pre-flop with any hand that will make two pair with this board, which leaves overpairs, QQ, 44, and 33.

we give KK about the same likelihood as QQ due to the lack of a preflop 3-bet.

As I said before, I'd lay odds on 33 or 44.

Re: From the Text Book: HAND READING
 

56s.

Re: From the Text Book: HAND READING
 

56s is my vote (edit: that may not have been clear).

33 or 44-- less likely to be out because usually standard bad small stakes players would not raise the flop with the hope of getting three-bet in order to raise the turn. That's too sweet a play.

77 -- I don't see 77 raising the flop here all that often given the call-raise move by hero. It's a little too agg., but it is possible.

QQ -- Similar arguments as 33 and 44, plus the fact that there was not pre-flop three-bet.

AQ -- Not raising waiting and raising the turn after the flop three bet. Most SS players aren't so aggro.

Villain's line is most consistent with a speculative hand in position, raising the flop for free card with a big draw and/or just raising because it's a good draw and people do that (and it happens to be correct), and then popping the turn when it hits.

Re: From the Text Book: HAND READING
 

[ QUOTE ]
56s


[/ QUOTE ]

That's my vote... and I like the way he played it too... but with no read on the button, the exercise is somewhat of a guessing game.

Re: From the Text Book: HAND READING
 

66! He's a crazy fish you thinks you have AK.

Re: From the Text Book: HAND READING
 

56s, 44, 33, AQ/KQ...all possible. Given that it's an unknown 2/4 opponent so are 34s, Q3s, Q4s, Q7s, QQ, KK, AA, ........ AK, a bluff with something totally unexpected.....I'm sure there are more.

56s would be my first guess though with 33/44 second and a decent Q a distant third.

I don't know why you seem to think this isn't that hard to guess.

Re: From the Text Book: HAND READING
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know why you seem to think this isn't that hard to guess.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a thinly veiled bad beat post. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

-d

Re: From the Text Book: HAND READING
 

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
I don't think naphand would do that.

Re: From the Text Book: HAND READING
 

AQ

Re: From the Text Book: HAND READING
 

Actually I think most people are thinking that villain has me beat here, but I don't think losing with AA can be considered a bad beat unless its to a Rivered set or something like that. It's not like NL where frequently a ton of money gets invested up front PF. AA is just 1 pair and I long since stopped worrying about getting them cracked. I can tell you I got AA 3 times today playing $3/$6 full, and made a very healthy profit with them. 1 hand means very little on its own.

This may be a beat or it may not, people should stop getting so worked up about it. I posted this as a test for the forum to see if it would take to a regular post like this without bitching and moaning about "how hard it is" or "opponent could have any hands here - this is crap". IT'S A BIT OF FUN and an excuse to laugh at hands that bad players play for $$.

stripsqueeze ran a very successful "guess the hand for $$" thread over in the HUSH Forum (which is where I have mostly appeared from). I figured you weak-tighties might appreciate something similar...that's all. Some of his hands were horrible beats, some were wins it does not matter.

Lighten up guys.

[ QUOTE ]
the exercise is somewhat of a guessing game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes you are right. If it was just a matter of working things out against a straightforward and unimaginative player there would be no fun it it for ME! Why would I put up $20 unless some weeks no-one could work it out? Against chooks you are guessing quite a lot of the time - but still playing for value.

Re: From the Text Book: HAND READING
 

[ QUOTE ]
Lighten up guys.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was joking... thusly the :P in my post.

-d

Re: From the Text Book: HAND READING
 

I would never hear the end of it... [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

Re: From the Text Book: HAND READING
 

[ QUOTE ]
Against a typical player...

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah yes, you are right but I did not say he was typical did I? No more hints.

Re: From the Text Book: HAND READING
 

33, 44 or maybe 56 suited.

Re: From the Text Book: HAND READING
 

Button has AQ, KQs, or QQ. QQ would suck, but I see AQ as a more likely holding. So I'll guess AQ.

Re: From the Text Book: HAND READING
 

[ QUOTE ]
Button has AQ, KQs, or QQ. QQ would suck, but I see AQ as a more likely holding. So I'll guess AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

AQ is actually a less likely holding than KQ, given that hero holds AA.

Re: From the Text Book: HAND READING
 

Allright, a semi-decent player couldn't have been improved by the turn; he wouldn't have raised 77 on the flop, and he wouldn't be in with q7. But from what naphand has said, I'm guessing villain has q7, hopefully suited. He made a very dubious preflop call, raised the flop with top pair, and raised the turn with two pairs.

Re: From the Text Book: HAND READING
 

He said button was unknown.

Re: From the Text Book: HAND READING
 

That's the spirit, but still wrong.

Maybe time for a reminder...

[ QUOTE ]
IT'S A BIT OF FUN and an excuse to laugh at hands that bad players play for $$.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm glad dumb ox is having a go, but you guys suck. Too many people picking very obvious hands. This guy is unknown which doesn't mean he is anything of a player or not anything of a player.

It's nowhere near as funny as the Dracula-vs-Van Helsing post I made a long time ago, but it still made me laugh.

OK bedtime here in GB. I will post the results tomorrow morning (GMT) - shortly after 7AM EST, maybe later depending on the seagulls... [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

Re: From the Text Book: HAND READING
 

Button is unknown so I'm gonna go with 2 cards that match some of the cards on the board, maybe both cards are one of the same cards on the board, or maybe one of each cards matches another special card on the board, or maybe the cards are connected cards that fill in spots on that board to make a big hand, or maybe only one of the 2 cards matches the board and the other is just chillin.

Re: From the Text Book: HAND READING
 

So, we're just guessing?

That's hardly hand reading.

-d

Re: From the Text Book: HAND READING
 

Q5...tough luck on the river.

Re: From the Text Book: HAND READING
 

AQ

Re: From the Text Book: HAND READING
 

[ QUOTE ]
Too many people picking very obvious hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't that what people should be picking?

If the answer is something completely unexpected, what kind of a hand reading exercise is that?

Re: From the Text Book: HAND READING
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Button has AQ, KQs, or QQ. QQ would suck, but I see AQ as a more likely holding. So I'll guess AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

AQ is actually a less likely holding than KQ, given that hero holds AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. It's just that the way the hand was played, it seemed like it was AQ. But statistically, you're right of course ...

Re: From the Text Book: HAND READING
 

I am guessing QJs, maybe Q6 for an inside str8 draw... cold call the flop though... I don't think he has a set... no draws why push anyone out (although some don't think of that)... I say QJs (thats why the cold calling thinking he is ahead) and staying in to see the flop

Re: From the Text Book: HAND READING
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm glad dumb ox is having a go, but you guys suck. Too many people picking very obvious hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

The answer is pocket elevens.

Re: From the Text Book: HAND READING
 

I think if anything, this exercise at least shows one of the holes in many people's games; you don't put people on exact hands, you put them on a range and then play the hand according to that. Against an unknown you can't say that he has AQ or 77 because that is too limited and you may play it completely wrong. Hand reading, to me at least, does not include narrowing the villian down to anything specific, but merely figuring out the range so as to play the most +EV when the situation arises.

In this case I would say that an unknowns range could be AQo, AQs, KQo, KQs, QQ, 33, 44, 77, 56s. Now there could also be some crazy two pair or he could be a LAG with next to nothing so I will say that they just cancel each other out. In this case, playing against this range we should call down after being raised on the turn. We could say he has AQ, but then we 3bet and when it gets capped what do we do? We could say he has 77 and fold, but this is a big pot to fold an overpair in. Instead, we should look at most of the logical choices and conclude that our hand isn't strong enough to 3bet because we want to see a showdown and it isn't bad enough to fold. For these reasons we should be calling down after the turn raise.

Maybe I actually got this all wrong and naphand actually just wanted me to guess a specific hand, but in real games this should be the general thought process, using the information provided to make a range [which could get more narrow as the hand unravels]. This post was too long. The End.

Re: From the Text Book: HAND READING
 

-blind response-

this looks more like KK or AA than anything else to me. I don't think a tight button will cc 33 or 44, but he could possibly try to slowplay a monster pair in order to get action postflop.

I can't see 33, 44, 77, A2 or A5 taking this line preflop.

how'd I do? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: From the Text Book: HAND READING
 

Emmit is right. Button is unknown so he can have quite a range of hands...Im not a big fan of putting him on AQ (obvious reasons), KQ...etc.

He either has 33, 44 or 56s, QQ is possible if he's an idiot...or if he's a retard, that forgot about your EP LRR, he has some crazy ass two pair with a Q in it, such as Q3, Q4...etc.

The way he played it, he's definitly strong here...he has to know (if he has a brain) that at the least, u have AQ or better here.

Re: From the Text Book: HAND READING
 

I really think an unknown can beat TP with that turn raise over 75% of the time.

-d

Re: From the Text Book: HAND READING
 

[ QUOTE ]
I really think an unknown can beat TP with that turn raise over 75% of the time.

-d

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. I used the example of AQ, he has to atleast be able to beat AQ here.

Re: From the Text Book: HAND READING
 

Pocket sevens.