10/20 AA fold Full Ring
 

Villian is 15/5 after hundereds of hands. I planned on pushing any non-Q, non-K flop.

10/20 NL on Party. Full 10 person table. Effective stack sizes are $2000.

HERO UTG dealt A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
VILLIAN (SB)

HERO raises to $75, BUTTON calls, SB raises to $288, HERO calls, BUTTON calls.

FLOP(~$865) K 8 2r

VILLIAN bets $300, HERO calls, BUTTON folds.

TURN (~$1465) 5o

VILLIAN bets $700

I fold.

Re: 10/20 AA fold Full Ring
 

I think this is a pretty easy fold. I might even fold the flop on one of my better days, but normally I convince myself that villain could have AK and when he does he will stop betting the turn and river. I'm normally wrong.

Re: 10/20 AA fold Full Ring
 

It's ok but with 100bb I hate to fold stuff. I've stuck it in lots of times here and seen AK.

Re: 10/20 AA fold Full Ring
 

Personally I need more than just a few hundred hands in PT in terms of player knowledge to fold here. Also, what's his image of you right now? How aggressive/and or tricky he is plays into it also. Personally I've played the hand the exact same way with QQ against a few good players praying I could get AA or AK to fold here with this line with good success.

Re: 10/20 AA fold Full Ring
 

I haven't been at the table long (less than an hour) and have raised quite a few hands but have shown down nothing but winners as I've had a nice run of cards.

Re: 10/20 AA fold Full Ring
 

Probably time to get out of dodge on the turn then. Most of the 10/20 people tricky enough to worry about you would have more hands on. I hate laying down AA on this kind of board but by the turn I'd say you're probably right to do it 75% of the time though which makes it correct. Like laying down bottom set though, any hand like this merits giving the gf's cat a hell of a thrashing or a 20 minute session of $25NL bully frenzy just to get the frustration out.

Re: 10/20 AA fold Full Ring
 

you must know something i dont. if i play the hand like this, im sticking it in on the turn all of 100% of the time. holla

Re: 10/20 AA fold Full Ring
 

He's 15/5. That's the key here. Do you think a 15/5 player reraises AK out of the SB? Or QQ even? If he does do it with QQ, does he still bet the turn? Methinks the answer is no to both. So he's got aces or kings.

Right?

Re: 10/20 AA fold Full Ring
 

[ QUOTE ]
He's 15/5. That's the key here. Do you think a 15/5 player reraises AK out of the SB? Or QQ even? If he does do it with QQ, does he still bet the turn? Methinks the answer is no to both. So he's got aces or kings.

Right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Just as an aside, if he will only reraise AA and KK why not just get it in pf? I can't seem him ever folding here if that is indeed his range.

-SmileyEH

Re: 10/20 AA fold Full Ring
 

If you know he has aces or kings, then go allin (or make it ~800 or so, and call his over the top allin) preflop and expect him to call and you tie 1/7 times and have an 80/20, 6/7 times.

Re: 10/20 AA fold Full Ring
 

I wonder if a 15/5 super-nit can lay down KK preflop? I think it's quite possible.

Re: 10/20 AA fold Full Ring
 

[ QUOTE ]
if he will only reraise AA and KK why not just get it in pf?

[/ QUOTE ]

because I didn't notice he was 15/5 until the flop.

Re: 10/20 AA fold Full Ring
 

It may be possible, but take the mindset of villain for a second. If I am playing only 15% of my hands (not many to begin with), and then pick up a monster hand like KK, it is very hard to fold.

I am already playing few hands. Now that I have picked up a hand to do battle with, you're going to deprive me that chance? I think I will at least call.

Re: 10/20 AA fold Full Ring
 

Depends on the 15/5 player. There are lots of TAG players at the 10/20 games who are very capable of folding KK to a 3rd raise preflop with 100x BB, especially as OP mentions that his current table image is solid.

Re: 10/20 AA fold Full Ring
 

Why would you only raise 75 utg?

Re: 10/20 AA fold Full Ring
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why would you only raise 75 utg?

[/ QUOTE ]
good question, that is really interesting.
my standard play in this spot would be to open the pot for ~320, (but i really hate bad beats!)...
do u think that would be a sweet play or should i raise more (less?).
111

Re: 10/20 AA fold Full Ring
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why would you only raise 75 utg?

[/ QUOTE ]
good question, that is really interesting.
my standard play in this spot would be to open the pot for ~320, (but i really hate bad beats!)...
do u think that would be a sweet play or should i raise more (less?).
111

[/ QUOTE ]

you meant 3200, right?

Re: 10/20 AA fold Full Ring
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why would you only raise 75 utg?

[/ QUOTE ]
good question, that is really interesting.
my standard play in this spot would be to open the pot for ~320, (but i really hate bad beats!)...
do u think that would be a sweet play or should i raise more (less?).
111

[/ QUOTE ]
[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Re: 10/20 AA fold Full Ring
 

cause thats a perfect sized raise? what are you smoking?

Re: 10/20 AA fold Full Ring
 

I'd have opened for around $120 and then re-raised to near $1000 pf.

Push on the flop.

Take your lumps and reload if he's got KK, the only feasible hand he's calling half his stack with PF.

P.S. I suck at poker.

Re: 10/20 AA fold Full Ring
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'd have opened for around $120 and then re-raised to near $1000 pf.

Push on the flop.

Take your lumps and reload if he's got KK, the only feasible hand he's calling half his stack with PF.

P.S. I suck at poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

interesting. your post started out irrelevant, then blatantly wrong, later got sucky but at the end increasingly perceptive. and all done in like 4 lines of text.

Re: 10/20 AA fold Full Ring
 

actually this atrategy would have been awesome if villain had just cold called the $1000, then you could check fold the flop!

thatd be so cool! duck, how do you not recognize the genius here?

Re: 10/20 AA fold Full Ring
 

[ QUOTE ]
P.S. I suck at poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

I feel like that's the best part of my post.

Then again, I don't play with stakes this high. Just thought I'd chip in something to let y'all tear apart.

Re: 10/20 AA fold Full Ring
 

[ QUOTE ]

interesting. your post started out irrelevant, then blatantly wrong, later got sucky but at the end increasingly perceptive. and all done in like 4 lines of text.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Re: 10/20 AA fold Full Ring
 

i have nothing to comment upon in the actual hand, but one thing that caught my attention was from the 'read' based on this player.

[ QUOTE ]
Villian is 15/5 after hundereds of hands

[/ QUOTE ]

hundreds? to me that just does not seem like nearly enough to be putting that much stock into the stats.

at how many hands are nl vpip/pfr stats converging to the point where you can actually make proper use of them?

i only ask, because i am sure many of you can look at random blocks of 500 hands of your own stats and see how widely it can vary.

can anyone provide some info in this area?

Re: 10/20 AA fold Full Ring
 

(I can't see which suits the flop are...)

I'd call - and then push allin on the river. Seriously, would Villain bet the flop if he would have hit a set of K's? Smells indeed to AK to me.

Re: 10/20 AA fold Full Ring
 

I find that 200 hands is usually enough to get a good estimate of preflop play. I rarely see a big difference between 200 and 2500 hands.

Re: 10/20 AA fold Full Ring
 

Wow that's pretty weak.

The only way you could have played this worse would have been to to call the turn and fold on an ace river.