4 handed live hand against justin a
 

i had Kd6d in the sb in a live 15-30 live game. the other two players in the game were super tight and just giving up there blinds hand after hand. justin a openraised from the button, i flat called, bb called.

the flop was Jc7d4h. checked to justin who bet, i called, bb folded.

the turn was 2d. i bet, he called.

the river was an offsuit 3. i check, justin bet, i called.

Re: 4 handed live hand against justin a
 

1. Do you have fold equity on that turn bet?

2. How often do you decide to showdown K high like this in SH games? I rarely do -- is that a mistake?

Re: 4 handed live hand against justin a
 

Betting the turn makes it easy for him to get to showdown with Ace high.

I can't see you being good on the river 1/8.

Edit: Also, I think you should fold the flop with the other player in the pot.

Re: 4 handed live hand against justin a
 

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Betting the turn makes it easy for him to get to showdown with Ace high.

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I don't understand this comment. How would checking make it harder for him?

Re: 4 handed live hand against justin a
 

This hand is interesting from my perspective also, but we can get into that after the results are revealed.

Re: 4 handed live hand against justin a
 

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Betting the turn makes it easy for him to get to showdown with Ace high.

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I don't understand this comment. How would checking make it harder for him?

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Should have been more explicit--Betting vs. Check-raising.

Re: 4 handed live hand against justin a
 

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Should have been more explicit--Betting vs. Check-raising.

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but does justin always bet an A high hand on this turn? rather, does he have AND bet/fold A high here often enough for a c/r to be profitable (ie, 28% of the time)?

Re: 4 handed live hand against justin a
 

preflop i would 3bet. if you're going to play K6s from the SB, at least take control of the hand so that when he is stealing with garbage he can fold to your flop bet

flop i would fold, but i think a c/r is better than just a call. again fold equity on the turn is a big consideration here

turn i would c/r, but i don't think a bet is that bad

river i would bet or check fold

Re: 4 handed live hand against justin a
 

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Should have been more explicit--Betting vs. Check-raising.

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but does justin always bet an A high hand on this turn? rather, does he have AND bet/fold A high here often enough for a c/r to be profitable (ie, 28% of the time)?

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he doesnt ahve to fold it 28% of the time cuz mike will often draw out even when justin calls.

Re: 4 handed live hand against justin a
 

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but does justin always bet an A high hand on this turn? rather, does he have AND bet/fold A high here often enough for a c/r to be profitable (ie, 28% of the time)?

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He doesn't always have A high, but if he checks it he is giving a free card when we're a ~2:1 dog and if he bets it, I think he's folding often enough for the check-raise to be profitable.

I don't know where you got the 28% figure--the check-raise doesn't have to be successful nearly that often. Quick calculation says 13%.

Re: 4 handed live hand against justin a
 

Up until the river, I can't really comment because it's based a lot on previous play and your reads on each other, but the river is horrible imo. I'd rather bet and maybe fold out an A-high or better K-high.

You beat QT,Q9,Q8,Q6,Q5,T9,T8,T6,T5,98,96,95,86 and 85. Very few of those are reasonable.

I don't think he calls the turn with air. It looks like a PP. 88, 66 or 55 probably.

Re: 4 handed live hand against justin a
 

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Should have been more explicit--Betting vs. Check-raising.

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but does justin always bet an A high hand on this turn? rather, does he have AND bet/fold A high here often enough for a c/r to be profitable (ie, 28% of the time)?

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he doesnt ahve to fold it 28% of the time cuz mike will often draw out even when justin calls.

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Sure, but note that I wasn't saying he must fold 28% of the time. He must bet/fold 28% of the time. Since he will sometimes check behind, he must fold more than 28% of the time.

Also, we are giving up some fold equity, presumably, by choosing to try for a c/r instead of betting. There are 3 separate questons then:

1. Is a turn bet +EV?
2. Is a turn c/r +EV?
3. If they are both +EV, which is more so?

EDIT: These comments are less relevant in light of Jeff's comments about his turn check being a mistake.

Re: 4 handed live hand against justin a
 

when he calls the turn it's almost always with a hand that beats you (besides 65), no? i fold the river.

Re: 4 handed live hand against justin a
 

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He doesn't always have A high, but if he checks it he is giving a free card when we're a ~2:1 dog and if he bets it, I think he's folding often enough for the check-raise to be profitable.

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I see, so we give him the chance to make a mistake by checking behind -- I didn't see that before. Thanks.

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I don't know where you got the 28% figure--the check-raise doesn't have to be successful nearly that often. Quick calculation says 13%.

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Risk 2 to win 5. 2/7 = 28%. no?

Re: 4 handed live hand against justin a
 

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Risk 2 to win 5. 2/7 = 28%. no?


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he doenst have to fold for us to win. our equity is not 0%.

Re: 4 handed live hand against justin a
 

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Risk 2 to win 5. 2/7 = 28%. no?

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Risk 34/46 to win 6.

Think about it. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: 4 handed live hand against justin a
 

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he doenst have to fold for us to win. our equity is not 0%.

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yes, you're right.

Re: 4 handed live hand against justin a
 

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Risk 34/46 to win 6.

Think about it. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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Very smart. This assumes we follow up with a river bet though (on a non-A river), right?

Re: 4 handed live hand against justin a
 

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Risk 34/46 to win 6.

Think about it. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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Very smart. This assumes we follow up with a river bet though (on a non-A river), right?

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Newp. 5 bets in the pot...BUT we're definitely at least calling. So we're comparing check-raising to check-calling.

So 6:1, but we have outs, so we're not putting a full bet in. Thus, 6:(34/46) assuming 12 outs.

Re: 4 handed live hand against justin a
 

OMG I think you should fold the flop!!

Re: 4 handed live hand against justin a
 

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So 6:1, but we have outs, so we're not putting a full bet in. Thus, 6:(34/46) assuming 12 outs.

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i'm retarded. i missed the our draw.

Re: 4 handed live hand against justin a
 

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preflop i would 3bet. if you're going to play K6s from the SB, at least take control of the hand so that when he is stealing with garbage he can fold to your flop bet

flop i would fold, but i think a c/r is better than just a call. again fold equity on the turn is a big consideration here

turn i would c/r, but i don't think a bet is that bad

river i would bet or check fold

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Preflop is ok, i've been raising alot and it's a 2/3 blind structure.

Re: 4 handed live hand against justin a
 

At every stage of this hand, given the size of the pot and the knowledge that justin could have raised preflop with any two cards, it is worth continuing.

Even so, you still have essentially nothing yourself and any card could pair him if he hasn't paired already.

I would prefer a flop cr to your donk stab on the turn to get rid of him before there is no getting rid of him.

That said, I think this whole hand is too dependant on how you see each other, and as such may have been played perfectly by both parties whether justin shows down 55 for the winner or T8 for a loser.

Re: 4 handed live hand against justin a
 

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At every stage of this hand, given the size of the pot and the knowledge that justin could have raised preflop with any two cards, it is worth continuing.

Even so, you still have essentially nothing yourself and any card could pair him if he hasn't paired already.

I would prefer a flop cr to your donk stab on the turn to get rid of him before there is no getting rid of him.

That said, I think this whole hand is too dependant on how you see each other, and as such may have been played perfectly by both parties whether justin shows down 55 for the winner or T8 for a loser.

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I don't have any two cards here. I'm probably raising about 50% of my hands though with the BB being who it was.

Re: 4 handed live hand against justin a
 

You can't win when Justin bets the river he's an uber-nit, he's not betting ten high or 6 high. I like the turn bet if you haven't been consistently checkraising on the flop.

Re: 4 handed live hand against justin a
 

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You can't win when Justin bets the river he's an uber-nit, he's not betting ten high or 6 high. I like the turn bet if you haven't been consistently checkraising on the flop.

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Not the first time you've been wrong.

Re: 4 handed live hand against justin a
 

Sorry. I knew it wasn't any two. Actually 50% was about my guess. Still, that's a lot of crap you could have there.

results/thoughts
 

wow justin you tricked schneids!

he had Td9d. when i check the river he is forced to bet with any hand i beat, but check with a lot of hands i dont beat. so i felt the check-call was the play on the river.

of course i had to play fairly randomly to get to that point. on the flop i knew a c/r was best but since he had been playing back a lot i decided to just call and see more cards come off. im definitely not dumping K high there and pairing my 6 could be good too.

the turn bet was in order of importance: a probing bet, a bet for value, and a semibluff. it's the most interesting part of the hand. when he doesnt raise the turn i find out if my 6 is a good out if he's A high or paired, and that my K high might be good. remember im calling a bet anyway so this bet doesnt hurt me. it's not like i have KTo, i have the flush draw. i put semibluff as last because he's rarely folding A high here, and never folding a pair.

clearly from an ftop perspective his play was to raise the turn here with his superdraw, but that means he has to fire the river too, and count on me not having top or middle pair, which the flat call flop, donk bet turn seems to indicate. so the random nature of my preflop and flop smooth calls ended up tricking him into misplaying the endgame.

oh it should be noted that all of this analysis is in hindsight, in the heat of battle in this hand i was barely thinking until the river came and i realised he was trapped into betting some hands that missed and checking some hands that beat me. the rest was just random spewage that looks now in analysis to be accidentally correct. to my credit i may have been playing good from my subconcious, if i could spell that right now..

fun hand and one of the few where i beat justin fair and square.

Re: results/thoughts
 

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oh it should be noted that all of this analysis is in hindsight, in the heat of battle in this hand i was barely thinking until the river came and i realised he was trapped into betting some hands that missed and checking some hands that beat me. the rest was just random spewage that looks now in analysis to be accidentally correct. to my credit i may have been playing good from my subconcious, if i could spell that right now..

fun hand and one of the few where i beat justin fair and square.

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I'm glad you included this...it's nice to go back afterwards and be able to argue ideas that make a play good or bad, but so much of SH (esp2-4 handed) is instinct and how the flow of hands have been going. I'm glad i'm not the only one [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Nice hand.

FWIW I think the call on the river is a fold. I agree that he must bet worse hands when you check...there's a problem though, the only cards he can hold that you beat are another, worse, missed FD.

If we could reliably put him on more missed hands that might bluff i'd like it more - but he doesn't call the turn with QTesque hands, he's either got a showdownable hand(A-hi or pair) or a big draw (OESD+). The OESD got there, all that's left are worse flush draws, which I might discount slightly b/c they may semibluff-raise the turn.

Surf

Re: 4 handed live hand against justin a
 

I'm still a bit unsure about this hand and who played it well. The reason is that I'm not sure I would have called the turn with a T9o or 98o type hand. What really made the turn bet work well for you, and why I probably would have folded those hands is that the last time you donk bet the turn I immdediately raised and you folded before I could put my chips out. I felt like you'd make your next donk bet with a legitimate hand, which is why I didn't raise the turn.

I'm still somewhat unsure about your river call because the only hands I have there that you beat are missed flush draws. I'm not sure if that's enough to call getting 7:1, but it's definitely close. Also it probably sways in your favor that I'm not betting the river with ace high hands, and given what I thought about your turn bet I'm probably only betting a pair of 7's and higher.

Re: results/thoughts
 

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clearly from an ftop perspective his play was to raise the turn here with his superdraw, but that means he has to fire the river too, and count on me not having top or middle pair, which the flat call flop, donk bet turn seems to indicate. so the random nature of my preflop and flop smooth calls ended up tricking him into misplaying the endgame.

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This is the type of situation where your style of play makes things tough. Justin knows by now that your turn donk bet is often done with the intention of 3 betting. He really doesn't want to have to pay 3 bets when he is still behind albeit with a good draw.

Re: 4 handed live hand against justin a
 

"given what I thought about your turn bet I'm probably only betting a pair of 7's and higher."

right so that means youre checking a lot of hands you would call with if i bet, which means my check there is a good idea.

in other words, i found it hard to believe you would bet many hands on the river i couldnt beat after just calling the turn, that's why when you bet i decided to call.

btw you should be calling my donk turn bet with 98 there hoping to pair up if you dont make your straight.

Re: results/thoughts
 

I learned from this hand, thanks for posting it. I agree that the river call is very thin +ev from your perpective after the analysis. However, if Justing is folding T9o and 98o it might be a fold.

Nice hand.