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-   -   Trouble on fourth? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=400246)

lstream 12-17-2005 12:13 PM

Trouble on fourth?
 
I think I should have re-raised on third, but what would you do on fourth? I had just sat down and had no read on the opponents.

7 Card Stud High ($5/$10), Ante $0.50, Bring-In $2 (converter)

3rd Street - (0.60 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Seat 2: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 4: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls___folds
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___completes___calls
Seat 7: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 8: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___brings-in___raises

4th Street - (7.00 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___double bets
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___???
Seat 8: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___

Roland 12-17-2005 12:36 PM

Re: Trouble on fourth?
 
This sucks. Without a read on seat 1 I lean towards folding; it’s not like cold-calling two raises with tens is unheard of. Also, a king and a deuce are dead and you have to improve.
Then again, against a 3-flush + tens and two pairs you have decent equity and should definitely continue.
Since there is no way you are going to knock out seat 8 you can only call.
So it’s call or fold. I think it’s close.

Jeffage 12-17-2005 02:48 PM

Re: Trouble on fourth?
 
3rd is fine...I don't think you need to cap there. I'd rather see what develops with last action (and knowing you will be bet into).

On 4th, you've seen what developed and it blows ass. Fold. Trip tens are very likely, trip deuces are possible even with the dead deuce, you're likely behind now and badly. The pot is large, but not large enough to draw to two outs and call a bet on every subsequent street at double the stakes with no more info. I lay it down.

Jeff

12-17-2005 03:19 PM

Re: Trouble on fourth?
 
To me, 3rd st re-raise is nearly automatic. I would suspect Seat 8 of trying to thin the crowd.
At 4th, I'd have trouble reading Trip 2s because of my own 2 and it seems to me it makes for an odd re-raise on 3rd for Seat 8.
But Seat 1's double bet is a poser. If I know the player, my decision would be based on whether he will automatically double-bet and on my read of his calls on 3rd street. Also, some players will never have trips here because they would have folded 3rd. If I don't know the player, then I think I should fold.

benwood 12-17-2005 03:34 PM

Re: Trouble on fourth?
 
I think there's a pretty reasonable chance that neither one of them has trips.But still,if I make 2 pair,I can't bet my hand with any confidence,giving me reverse implied odds.Finally,my side cards being semi-dead lean me toward the fold.

Gitz 12-17-2005 08:05 PM

Re: Trouble on fourth?
 
double indemnity: My term for two door cards being hit.

A hand in 7cs playing that provides for payment of double the amount to the opponents at the table causing death for the non-pair chaser.

Just a painful reminder of losing hands that I try to avoid today.

Paul

CJC 12-17-2005 08:27 PM

Re: Trouble on fourth?
 
Hello,

I suppose I will make my first post in several months, commenting on this hand.

3rd is an auto re-raise, but you know that so I won't chastise.

4th is an auto fold, and it really isn't even close. ( in your situation ). The sidecards to your Aces are dead and you know you are beaten in at least one place, more than likely two, and probably badly beaten. Get out. Lot's of players wouldn't fold Aces in this spot, then again, lot's of players donate alot of money in Stud.

The original post and situation described is EXTREMEMLY important for players new to stud to study and understand.
If players constantly call in situations described, they will be losers. Sure you will throw away the best hand now and then, but over the long run, you will be much better off folding.
Take Care,

CJ

TheSalche 12-17-2005 11:06 PM

Re: Trouble on fourth?
 
I definetly don't put Seat 8 on trip twos, there really is not reasonable hand to do this with (except maybe AA2?). A22 and KK2 are other possiblities but once again not likely. Maybe a three flush w/ace of spades?

Re-raising third doesn't accomplish anything but get more money in the pot, if there were some way of knocking out a player that would make sense, but given the action you played it fine.

frappeboy 12-18-2005 01:41 AM

Re: Trouble on fourth?
 
Fold.

frappeboy 12-18-2005 06:04 AM

PLAYING AGAINST A PAIRED DOOR CARD.. THEORY.
 
There is a concept I'd like to discuss here. When your opponent pairs his door card, he usually either has A) Trips, B) Pair with 3 flush C) 2 pair. The likelihood of each depends on how 3rd street was played. Here are the 4 possiblities.

A1) The pot is unraised and your opponent has a small pair
A2) The pot is unraised and your opponent has a medium/big pair (I define this as 8s or higher).
B1) The pot is raised and your opponent has a small pair
B2) The pot is raised and your opponent has a medium/big pair.

Lets analyze each possibility

A1: It is more likely that your opponent has trips here than if the pot was raised. This is simple to understand because lots of players won't play small pairs for a raise. It is ALSO more likely that your opponent has trips here than if your opponent had a medium/big pair showing. This is because if he had started with a medium/big pair he'd be more inclined to raise. You should almost always fold against this player.

A2: It is possible, but not as likely that your opponent has trips here. The point is players are more likely to raise on third with medium/big pairs. Also, there are more playable hands when the door card is higher. For instance your opponent could be playing 3 high cards here, maybe a hand like JT9. If his door card was a 3, its less likely he started with a hand like 345. Therefore against this scenario you should actually play LOOSER than if your opponent made a small pair showing.

B1) The pot is raised and your opponent pairs his small card. Since the pot was raised it is less likely that he started with a split pair, although against lots of players its still very possible. You should play looser in this scenario than you would if the pot was unraised on 3rd. It is much more likely that your opponent started with a 3 flush here than on scenario A1. Still play very cautious but play looser than A1.

B2) Since the pot was raised, it now becomes more likely that your opponent has trips when he pairs his medium/big door card. Play much tighter in this scenario than if the pot was unraised on 3rd, as in scenario A2.


This may sound long winded, but its interesting theory. Also, another point of this, is if the pot was raised on 3rd, and your opponent who's door card is low catches a suited card on 4th, it is MORE likely he has a 4 flush than if he started with a big card. So when your opponent makes a 3 flush on board on 5th street, you should play much tighter against a small card in the door than a big card in the door.

How this relates to this example, is it is very likely that your opponent who called with the ten now has trips. Also even the guy with 2s could have it. Fold.

12-18-2005 02:38 PM

Re: PLAYING AGAINST A PAIRED DOOR CARD.. THEORY.
 
I think neither opponent needs to have trips here. If I was still in with the ten up, I would certainly double bet with any hand here and test you. With you catching a two, its obviously less likely that the bring-in has trip twos. Nonetheless, I think it's quite an easy fold - your chances of improving are not great, and its very possible that you are facing trips. There's also the possibility of a number of raises going in here if either or both opponent is aggressive, and the bring-in at least appears to be.

lstream 12-18-2005 05:28 PM

RESULT
 
Here is how the entire hand played out. As you can see, I folded fourth. Even though the two opponents ended up with weaker hands than I expected, I still think the consensus advice to fold is correct. I really don't like being in hands, where even if you improve to two pair, you still don't really know if you are ahead.

7 Card Stud High ($5/$10), Ante $0.50, Bring-In $2 (converter)

3rd Street - (0.60 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Seat 2: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 4: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls___folds
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___completes___calls
Seat 7: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 8: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___brings-in___raises

4th Street - (7.00 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___double bets
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 8: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls

5th Street - (5.50 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 8: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls

6th Street - (7.50 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 8: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls

River - (9.50 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] xx___bets
Seat 8: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] xx___calls

Total pot: (11.50 BB)

Results:
Main Pot: $112 | Rake: $3

Seat 1: [ Qh 9d Th Td 3h 5h 5d ] [ two pairs, tens and fives -- Qh,Th,Td,5h,5d ]

Seat 8: [ Kh Ks 2s 2c Jh 8d 6d ] [ two pairs, kings and twos -- Kh,Ks,Jh,2s,2c ]

TheSalche 12-18-2005 05:57 PM

Re: RESULT
 
[ QUOTE ]
Here is how the entire hand played out. As you can see, I folded fourth. Even though the two opponents ended up with weaker hands than I expected, I still think the consensus advice to fold is correct. I really don't like being in hands, where even if you improve to two pair, you still don't really know if you are ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

Better to push the big edges, then to push the small edges in stud. Sucks to see you would've had a shot at the winner, but thats pokah.

benwood 12-18-2005 10:43 PM

Re: RESULT
 
3rd:Re-raise.Ypur hand is almost certainly best.

4th:Good thing you didn't re-raise 3rd.You've got to fold, imo.Even if neither one has trips now,you've still got to make another pair,& either one of them could fill up.

12-19-2005 01:57 AM

Re: Trouble on fourth?
 
Sometimes you just have to release the cards no matter how good the started out. This seems to be a clear fold here. Even if you are best on 4th, you felt awkward betting them outright or even calling. Save yourself the aggrevation and wait for the next big starting hand and hope it works better for you.

MichaelOar 12-19-2005 02:41 AM

Re: Trouble on fourth?
 
Failing to reraise on 3rd st is horrendous.
I realize that raising "doesn't accomplish anything but get more money in the pot," and that is the point. Hero is likely to be first to act on 4th st with the likely bettor to his immediate left, so it isn't like he can force the field to face a double bet then. He's got the best of it on 3rd and needs to make everyone pay. I see that a couple people have said that not raising is okay, and I am absolutely baffled by this--can anyone explain the thought process behind just calling?

The fold on 4th st is just about automatic. Sad, but true.

Michael


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