Laying down the nuts...?
 

5-10 NL live...

The game is fairly deep, we have been playing all night.
Hero~ $2500
Villian~ $2200 and he is very good.

In BB I am dealt K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

UTG limps, villian raises to $80 (standard), folded to me, I call utg calls.
Pot- $245
Semi-gorgeous flop:
A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I bet $200, utg folds and Villian goes all in for ~$2100.

Thoughts, comments, criticisms...? Such an absurd over bet makes me think about what holdings he could actually make this play with.

Results later.

Re: Laying down the nuts...?
 

kqo is about the worst hand i can think of to call a good player's raise out of position.

this isn't pot limit omaha. he doesn't put you on the nuts because most players would get cute. he probably has a set or what he thinks is a big draw. call and bust him.

Re: Laying down the nuts...?
 

How could you possibly ever think about folding?

Re: Laying down the nuts...?
 

There is exactly ONE TIME I would fold this.... and that is if he flipped over the K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and I SAW that he had the made straight and he was free-rolling to the flush. I think calling there would be -EV since you can only split and never win and you haven't lost much by folding. Other than that rare circumstance its a clear call.

Sly

Re: Laying down the nuts...?
 

Put yourself in his shoes, why would he make this bet and what would he make it with?

Re: Laying down the nuts...?
 

This is ridiculous... unless you put him on EXACTLY KQc ... whatever this is ridiculous

Re: Laying down the nuts...?
 

It is KQs, and if I didn't play hands like that out of position, what would I have to post on the forum? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] BTW, He isn't going to get cute just for the fun of it...

If he assumes that I am a good player, what possible holdings would he want to make this play with? The play was so illogical to me, coming from him, that I had to sit and think this one out for a bit...

Re: Laying down the nuts...?
 

I think he might make this bet with a set... maybe AA... he doesnt want a flush draw hanging around, and he doesnt want someone with a hand like AQ hanging around to catch a miracle straight. Just a guess, I am very interested in what he had.

His bet is still overkill in any case.

Sly

Re: Laying down the nuts...?
 

Thinking about this hand, the only thing I can compare it to is someone pushing pre-flop and somehow you know for a fact that they don't have a pair. You have AKo.

Re: Laying down the nuts...?
 

Well he sure as [censored] isn't going to do w/ KQc unless he puts you on EXACTLY your holding.

Re: Laying down the nuts...?
 

I will assume the thread title is a joke because laying this hand down is not even remotely an option unless you can see Kc Qc in your opponent's hand. You aren't seriously giving so much as one second's consideration to folding here, right? Unless this is your last $2,000 on earth (in which case you shouldn't be playing poker with it), you cannot fold.

SpaceAce

Re: Laying down the nuts...?
 

I'm actually really interested in what he put you on. If he had KQc and put you on KQo, then he just made the most +EV play in the history of poker and you need to avoid sitting with him again.

Re: Laying down the nuts...?
 

if you even consider folding, past the 1.5 sec it takes to double check the flop for a 3 flush (and with a 2k bet, you will do a double check), then you shouldn't be playing no limit for these stakes......you have the nuts, push...excluding KQc, the very best he can do is win ~36% of the time

in fact, if i am the villain, and it takes you longer than 5 seconds to think, and then i see your cards after u call, i would be pissed that you made me sweat it out for even that long

Re: Laying down the nuts...?
 

Why on earth would our villain play KQ clubs that way in the first place? If he did, I would stop playing with him as he is psychic or is cheating.

Re: Laying down the nuts...?
 

while it's easy to shrug off what you are alluding to, I can sort of see your point......a very good player is making a ridiculous overbet on the flop and playing the hand in such a way that he knows you CAN'T make a mistake - so why would he do that?......you haven't said how well he knows your tendencies, but even he has three aces, he might know that you aren't going to call that bet without anything but KQ.......which means he wouldn't make that bet without KQ.....but then the question is, if he does have KQ:
a) does that definitely mean they're both clubs
b) does he really KNOW you also have KQ - because if he's got the nuts, wouldn't he want to try to make some money off a set/two pair/etc.?

he could certainly be weary that scare cards might come out anyway, so he wants to put the question to you now.....and there's certainly a chance he could also have KQ and you chop.......but to think that he's got exactly KcQc and consider it probable enough to lay down the nuts has got to be -EV here.......perhaps someone can do the math....

Re: Laying down the nuts...?
 

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In risposta di:</font><hr />
while it's easy to shrug off what you are alluding to, I can sort of see your point......a very good player is making a ridiculous overbet on the flop and playing the hand in such a way that he knows you CAN'T make a mistake - so why would he do that?......you haven't said how well he knows your tendencies, but even he has three aces, he might know that you aren't going to call that bet without anything but KQ.......which means he wouldn't make that bet without KQ.....but then the question is, if he does have KQ:
a) does that definitely mean they're both clubs
b) does he really KNOW you also have KQ - because if he's got the nuts, wouldn't he want to try to make some money off a set/two pair/etc.?

he could certainly be weary that scare cards might come out anyway, so he wants to put the question to you now.....and there's certainly a chance he could also have KQ and you chop.......but to think that he's got exactly KcQc and consider it probable enough to lay down the nuts has got to be -EV here.......perhaps someone can do the math....

[/ QUOTE ]



c) are you thinking too much?

yes.

Re: Laying down the nuts...?
 

you know, i somehow read your post several times and saw K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] each time. too much online poker, i guess.

Re: Laying down the nuts...?
 

After ten seconds of thinking I would fold to save myself from getting stabbed for slowrolling.

Re: Laying down the nuts...?
 

[ QUOTE ]

c) are you thinking too much?

yes.

[/ QUOTE ]


are you talking about hero or me?

Re: Laying down the nuts...?
 

exactly, thats why its a no brainer situation [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Laying down the nuts...?
 

[ QUOTE ]
in fact, if i am the villain, and it takes you longer than 5 seconds to think, and then i see your cards after u call, i would be pissed that you made me sweat it out for even that long

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. First thing I thought about after I saw "had to sit and think it out for a bit" was that the villain is going to be *pissed* when he proudly flips over his AA and sees the nuts being slowrolled like that.

It's a call and it's not remotely close. If this were PLO, you might have a case for folding. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Re: Laying down the nuts...?
 

No offense intended, but if you need to think about your action here after he pushes, you should maybe consider fly fishing or needlepoint as time-occupiers.

Let's see...I sat and waited for a hand for hours, flopped the nuts, then got raised allin against a player who almost certainly has a set.

Come on. You can't always be looking for a reason to be beat. You will virtually always be a favorite here.

If the casino had a house game table that advertised that you were virtually always a favorite and could bet as much as you wanted, would you go to the buffet instead?

Yes, I mean assuming you somehow KNEW the game was legit.

Re: Laying down the nuts...?
 

Seriously. When you called with that hand what kind of flop did you WANT to see that you wouldn't have to make a decision on? QQQ? KKK? A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]? This is the best possible scenario for you to be in. Worst case scenario he is on a freeroll with 9 outs.

I'd call here. And then, I'd call one more time just in case I didn't the first time.

Re: Laying down the nuts...?
 

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In risposta di:</font><hr />
</font><blockquote><font class="small">In risposta di:</font><hr />

c) are you thinking too much?

yes.

[/ QUOTE ]


are you talking about hero or me?

[/ QUOTE ]


hero....



but also you, now.

Re: Laying down the nuts...?
 

There is some point where if the stacks are deep enough, that you have to fold. If villian could somehow read you for the nuts, and he did have KQ clubs, his play would be pretty damn nasty and you be in a pretty crappy place.

All that being said, you likely have to call here. His play only makes sense if he read you for the nuts. I doubt he could do that given the action. If he moved in for 10k, I'd say a fold is in order. 5k, maybe. I have no idea where the critical point is and it would be interesting to find out.

Re: Laying down the nuts...?
 

wouldn't fold even if the guy had a bazooka.

Re: Laying down the nuts...?
 

I know it may sound crazy, but at some point it will become absolutely wrong to call without re-draws here.

Say you and an excellent player both had 100k behind. You bet $200 and he moves in for $99800. Your play with "just the nuts" should be a lot simpler now. You must fold.

The question is, how deep does the money have to be in order to make a fold correct?

Re: Laying down the nuts...?
 

Exactly the amount that you can't afford to lose, both emotionally and financially.

Re: Laying down the nuts...? EV calculations
 

Given the pot and bet size, here's your expected value from calling against certain hands:

-486 against KcQc (straight plus flush draw)
+220 against KcQx or KdQd (straight plus backdoor flush)
+323 against straight with no flush draw (guaranteed chop)
+665 against flush draw with gutshot and pair (KTc)
+776 against flush draw with gutshot (K9c)
+994 against AA
+1750 against top two, +1554 against AdJd (top two/backdoor flush draw)

If he flashed you the king of clubs and a black queen and you couldn't tell whether it was clubs or spades, you could fold.

By the way, given the dead money in the pot, his all-in raise would have to be for 6700 more to make folding correct against KcQx or KQd.

Dan

Re: Laying down the nuts...?
 

Thank you for bringing some sense into this thread.

Justin A

Re: Laying down the nuts...?
 

You still call. Consider it a $65000 gift from your opponent.

Justin A

Re: Laying down the nuts...?
 

Well...
I was fairly surprised at the amount of "call of course" responses when knowing the opponnent is a very solid player.

While thinking about the hand I really felt that he couldn't make the play with much less than the same holding as me... It just doesn't make logical sense for a player to go overbet so much with a set when he can only get called by the nuts, but anywho...

I called and he flipped over the K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]...

I would like to say that I survived, but the turn brought the fatal club [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

I thought it was an excellent read/play on his part and wanted to know if anyone thought they could get away from this hand...

Thanks to those that supplied the statistical analysis as well, it was helpful.

Re: Laying down the nuts...?
 

wow, tough situtation. i would have put him on a big set and called for sure. if he has you on KQ and makes that play i certainly don't want any face time with him anytime soon.

Re: Laying down the nuts...?
 

[ QUOTE ]
You still call. Consider it a $65000 gift from your opponent.


[/ QUOTE ]

Is anybody else considering the only hand he makes a 100k overbet with is KQ of clubs?

Re: Laying down the nuts...?
 

NO. When you flop the nuts (and better), do you immediately overbet the pot by x10000 to scare your opponent out? No. There is but one choice, call.

Re: Laying down the nuts...?
 

I would be wondering if this game is on the up-and-up if he can make that kind of read here. FWIW, he would've stacked me off here without a doubt, but a solid player should have wanted more value from his hand. If this is a home game, unless he was sitting next to you and you think you might have inadvertantly flashed your cards, I'd seriously consider finding another place to play.

Re: Laying down the nuts...?
 

My argument hinges on the fact that the excellent player somehow reads you for the nuts. Let me give another hand as an example of when folding the nuts would be absolutely correct.

You have red Q-2.

On the turn the board shows: A K J T w/ two clubs. There is 100 in pot. You lead out for 100. Your opponent goes all in for 10k more.

You should fold. The ONLY hand the excellent player would play in this manner is Q-x clubs.

Re: why is this guy getting so much credit
 

i dont know why people are saying that you should relocate instead of playing against this guy. he sounds like a solid player but probably isnt the miraculous hand reader that some have suggested.

is this situation that hard to fathom?

villian thinks, "hrm I FLOPPED THE NUTS!ok this guy seems like a decent player. well lets see hes betting into me so i can assume hes hit the flop. probably AK, AQ for one pair w/ straight draw or possibly JT, AJ, AT for two pair. two pair would be hard to lay down. ill just push and see if he pays me off. worst could happen is that hes got KQ also and we chop. but then ill still have my flush outs. lets roll."

oh, and if i were hero i would call of course.

Re: Laying down the nuts...?
 

I dont care what he had, or what you think he had, or what the only logical hand he could be making the play with is. You call. You dont know he has kcqc. You have the nuts. You dont even think about it. This is a ridiculous discussion. He could easily be pushing with a set of aces because hes scared of what the turn card could be. Easiest call you should ever have to make.

Re: Laying down the nuts...?
 

I agree with you ocho, and thats why I made the post...
I really felt that the play would be downright stupid if he had a set- I can only call with the nuts and it is only a $400 pot... So he makes a reasonably small win or big loss...