Very Familiar
 

Unkowns and this post can be classified as forum clutter.


Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, MP3 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>

Re: Very Familiar
 

YUK!

Re: Very Familiar
 

This is straight out of the book right? You played it, but it looks exactly like a hand in SSH that I always had a hard time understanding.

Re: Very Familiar
 

Wasn't the pot bigger in the SSHE example? There was also a raise preflop and it was fairly easy to see the first better as unimproved overcards, with your three bet buying you two ace outs.

Re: Very Familiar
 

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This is straight out of the book right? You played it, but it looks exactly like a hand in SSH that I always had a hard time understanding.

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It's not straight out of the book. The pot is smaller here.

Re: Very Familiar
 

I just looked at the explanation for the SSH recommendation for its similar hand (p. 271), and there are some differences I believe to be important.

(1) The pot isn't as big.

(2) The initial bettor was not a PFR. So it's hard to put him on a big ace we could buy a couple of outs from.

In the posted hand, I don't really know what's best.

Re: Very Familiar
 

We can probably make this work. I would venture to guess that this raise will show a profit though I would not be too suprised if it were just a varience builder (or a mistake). Obviously getting a free card is the major key here and I have no idea how often it will come. It would be interesting to see how often free card plays work these days.

Brad

Re: Very Familiar
 

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This is straight out of the book right? You played it, but it looks exactly like a hand in SSH that I always had a hard time understanding.

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It's not straight out of the book. The pot is smaller here.

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I don't have the book here. Let's say that we think we'll get a free card here about 85% of the time with a 3 bet. I think that's conservative. What do you think of it now?

Re: Very Familiar
 

So who raises PF?

Re: Very Familiar
 

[ QUOTE ]
I just looked at the explanation for the SSH recommendation for its similar hand (p. 271), and there are some differences I believe to be important.

(1) The pot isn't as big.

(2) The initial bettor was not a PFR. So it's hard to put him on a big ace we could buy a couple of outs from.

In the posted hand, I don't really know what's best.

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How big was the pot? I don't have the book with me.

I'm glad this isn't turning out to be forum clutter because I felt bad posting it.

Re: Very Familiar
 

Without any reads, and in a small pot, this really reeks of spewage.

We need to have a number of things go in our favor after the flop 3-bet to make this a profitable play. Given the lack of reads - we have a very low accurracy in predicting the probabilities with which these things will happen.

Easy fold.

Re: Very Familiar
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I just looked at the explanation for the SSH recommendation for its similar hand (p. 271), and there are some differences I believe to be important.

(1) The pot isn't as big.

(2) The initial bettor was not a PFR. So it's hard to put him on a big ace we could buy a couple of outs from.

In the posted hand, I don't really know what's best.

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How big was the pot? I don't have the book with me.

I'm glad this isn't turning out to be forum clutter because I felt bad posting it.

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In SSH, it was 6 players to the flop for two SBs. On the flop, there's a bet from the PFR, a call, a raise, and then two folds. So there are 16 SBs in the pot when it's our action.

By the way, in SSH we do hold exactly A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. The board is K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. So that much matches up very well.

Re: Very Familiar
 

i think the pot was bigger in the book. you have to fold to a raise here while in the hand quiz you would need to cold call

Re: Very Familiar
 

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Let's say that we think we'll get a free card here about 85% of the time with a 3 bet. I think that's conservative.

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I think a conservative estimate would've been around 50% of the time.

Even when you do get a free card and then hit by the river - you're still going to need to recoup bets with both aggressors on your immediate right. I think you're not going to get the return when you make it there on the river and UTG+1 leads the river and you either raise and hope to get 1 extra BB from him or call to try and get 2BBs (maybe 3) on overcalls.

Re: Very Familiar
 

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i think the pot was bigger in the book. you have to fold to a raise here while in the hand quiz you would need to cold call

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Folding is no good. The pot isn't huge here, but it's decent and we have 6-7 outs.

Re: Very Familiar
 

As others have said, the lack of the PFR here makes the hand play totally differently. I don't think the pot size matters all that much since it's big enough to continue either way, but the chance that UTG has an A that beats us and that he might fold if we raise is important. In this hand, he's MUCH more likely to have a made hand than an UI A.

Re: Very Familiar
 

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i think the pot was bigger in the book. you have to fold to a raise here while in the hand quiz you would need to cold call

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Folding is no good. The pot isn't huge here, but it's decent and we have 6-7 outs.

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yeah but we are getting 4.5-1 with 6 outs. i dont think thats enough. Fold.

Re: Very Familiar
 

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I think a conservative estimate would've been around 50% of the time.

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WAY too low crunchy. I've played a few hands in these 2/4 games, and my 3 bets on the flop give me free cards extremely often. 85% is conservative.

Re: Very Familiar
 

Folding here is just terrible if you have more then about 24% equity. Look at what happens when we have 25% equity and have to put 3 bets in on the flop and 1 in on the turn. Notice that we still have 25% equity on the turn bet since we will have sometimes hit our hand.

EV = 21 SB * .25 - 5 SB = + .25 SB + implied

If we get a free card...

EV = 15 SB * .25 - 3 SB = + .75 SB + implied

So if we think that we have more then about 5-5.5 outs here, folding is dead wrong in this spot.

If we have 20% equity, it is a .8 SB mistake if we have to call 5 SB to see the river. If we just have to put in 3 SB, it is a breakeven proposition. With 5.5 surefire outs, it is almost impossible to give us less then about 22% equity here. Add in the times that the aces will be good (and implied odds) and this looks like a +EV spot for our hero.

Brad

Re: Very Familiar
 

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Folding here is just terrible if you have more then about 24% equity.

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3-betting likely results in this hand going 3-way to the turn. So we have 24% equity on a 3-way pot?

Re: Very Familiar
 

How many outs is a runner-runner flush worth on the flop? Would it be approximately one quarter of the available clubs left, e.g., between 2 and 2.5 outs? I should know this, but I don't.

Re: Very Familiar
 

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I think a conservative estimate would've been around 50% of the time.

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WAY too low crunchy. I've played a few hands in these 2/4 games, and my 3 bets on the flop give me free cards extremely often. 85% is conservative.

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meh - I'm no stranger to the Party 2/4 either and I don't agree. 85% may be close - it's not, IMO, conservative.

I just don't think you give can yourself that high of a percentage against unknown opponents. Maybe if you had some decent reads on 1 or two of the players - but not readless against the field. There are plenty of 2/4 players who will cap this for fun from the SB/BB. There's also plenty of 2/4 players who will donk the turn if they hit any pair (some with a small PP).

Getting a free (cheap) turn card is great but, it's not the only thing that needs to go right in the rest of the hand. I just don't see how we can justify continuing given our lack of knowledge on our opponents coupled with our relatively weak holding.

Re: Very Familiar
 

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How many outs is a runner-runner flush worth on the flop? Would it be approximately one quarter of the available clubs left, e.g., between 2 and 2.5 outs? I should know this, but I don't.

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Count between 1-1.5 outs for a runner-runner straight/flush draw.

Re: Very Familiar
 

His point wasn't that our bet would be earning us money (ie raising a flush draw on a multiway flop), but that we have enough of a chance to win when factoring in the current pot size (and what it will be when called and on future streets) that folding is wrong. It looks right too, which seems odd, but...well I guess it depends how often our A is good. Interesting stuff.

Re: Very Familiar
 

This is far from forum clutter.

Re: Very Familiar
 

FOLD. FOLD. FOLD. FOLD.
I know what hand u're referring to and i think i saw this before on the forums (as well as in SSH). The other pot is bigger in the example.

Re: Very Familiar
 

Does anyone like raising preflop in LP here? With Axs we are likley to flop a weak draw and would benefit from getting to the turn for 2 SB. Not to mention fold equity for A or K high flops.

Re: Very Familiar
 

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FOLD. FOLD. FOLD. FOLD.
I know what hand u're referring to and i think i saw this before on the forums (as well as in SSH). The other pot is bigger in the example.

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Board: Ks 5d 3c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 29.1251 % 29.13% 00.00% { Ac4c }
Hand 2: 49.0587 % 49.06% 00.00% { KdJh }
Hand 3: 21.8162 % 21.82% 00.00% { 6s5s }

I mean, I don't know what they have, my situation could be better than this or worse. If they both have Kings, my equity is in the mid 30s, if someone has like 2 pair or worse, I could be in the low 20s. At any rate, the pot is 9 sbs to me with maybe 30% equity without considering implied odds, I'm sacrificing 3 sb folding here. It's 2 to call and only 3 to raise a very good (despite Crunchy's statement [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]) chance to get a free card.

I'm still listening though 27offsoot, cuz you normally show me something worthwhile.

Re: Very Familiar
 

[img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] - right back at ya!! [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Seriously though - your last post is very misleading.

#1 - you know better than to give specific hands to each player in that type of analysis. Toss some ranges out there and see what happens. I think things might actually start looking better for you! [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

#2 - make sure you account for the two players left to act after you. These players are still in the pot and need to be accounted for.

Re: Very Familiar
 

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:p - right back at ya!! [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Seriously though - your last post is very misleading.

#1 - you know better than to give specific hands to each player in that type of analysis. Toss some ranges out there and see what happens. I think things might actually start looking better for you! [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

#2 - make sure you account for the two players left to act after you. These players are still in the pot and need to be accounted for.

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All true.

I don't have the time to run some sims right now, but I can later. Yes, I agree my equity will probably improve. I think the point being though that I almost certainly have AT LEAST equity in the low 20s and probably much better. And, as has been shown, this is plenty to make at least a call. I like to raise. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Very Familiar
 

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I don't have the time to run some sims right now, but I can later. Yes, I agree my equity will probably improve. I think the point being though that I almost certainly have AT LEAST equity in the low 20s and probably much better. And, as has been shown, this is plenty to make at least a call. I like to raise.


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I played with it some and (not claiming to be comprehensive), the only way I can get QTip's equity below 18.7% is to kill some of the 2s or to give someone 64. To get it to 18.7%, I had to give everyone backdoor flush draws and kill the ace outs. I think it is safe to say that his equity is in the low 20s or higher almost all the time.