Flip the Cards Over
 

BostonZak and I were discussing a hand a poor player played.

We know that playing a hand well or poorly in game time and playing a hand well or poorly according to the fundamental theorom of poker are 2 different things. Imagine BB has a software that shows other players hands. Do you think his call is a mistake according to the ftop? If so, how much of a mistake (quantitatively)?

Button has A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

CO has 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2

BB has T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

MP1 has Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

CO posts a blind of $2.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO (poster) calls, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls

Re: Flip the Cards Over
 

Betting about 6 to 1, he needs like 14% equity here. He has no more than 5 outs to improve, which would be 20% equity if they were all clean. The problem is that they are never always clean in a multiway pot like this, and it is entirely possible considering the pre-flop action that this will go to more bets. If it gets three-bet, he could be paying effectively 3 into a pot of like 15-17 or something like that, so his equity demands go up from like 14 to more like 16% or so.

I think on average he's go something like 12% equity here and needs like 15% on average to continue, so his mistake is something like .4-.5 sb since he's paying 2 SB here.

Obviously a lot of this depends on how you discount the two pair outs. But I think we need to discount them at least 30% or so (that'd be down to 14%) and 40% seems more likely to be right.

Re: Flip the Cards Over
 

WD:

Are you considering implied odds?

Also, we'll say MP1 is not a moron and is not 3 betting here.

Re: Flip the Cards Over
 

i believe i would call here if i were him and i had this info.

getting ~7:1 (we dont know that QQ/22 calls the raise), we have 5 squeaky clean outs and we can be pretty sure this is all we're going to have to pay to see the turn. we will hit 5/(52-11 known cards) times, which is 12.2% of the time, or 7.2:1.

with implied odds, this is a super easy call. especially because there will only be a 6 out redraw against us if we improve - the great part is that we have no reverse implied odds since we simply open fold whenever one of these lands:

3 aces
1 queen
2 twos

Re: Flip the Cards Over
 

Q,

I left out the implied odds part.

Implied odds here are pretty small actually because villain is going to hit and lose here with some frequency. He's vulnerable to redraws as well. I guess it is a slight positive effect, though. So I guess the decision is closer to neutral, maybe like .1-.2 SB bad.

Re: Flip the Cards Over
 

i don't see how this is close at all. we only get outdrawn 6/40 times (15%). we are just about getting even money to call on the flop with our 5 outer and if we improve on the turn we gain at least 2 big bets 85% of the time (depending on how bad the guys with QQ/22 are).

Re: Flip the Cards Over
 

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i don't see how this is close at all. we only get outdrawn 6/40 times (15%). we are just about getting even money to call on the flop with our 5 outer and if we improve on the turn we gain at least 2 big bets 85% of the time (depending on how bad the guys with QQ/22 are).

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I don't think you are discounting your outs nearly heavily enough. We do NOT have 5 outs here. It's more like 3-4.

Re: Flip the Cards Over
 

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i don't see how this is close at all. we only get outdrawn 6/40 times (15%). we are just about getting even money to call on the flop with our 5 outer and if we improve on the turn we gain at least 2 big bets 85% of the time (depending on how bad the guys with QQ/22 are).

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I don't think you are discounting your outs nearly heavily enough. We do NOT have 5 outs here. It's more like 3-4.

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you really must be wondering why the thread is called "Filp the Cards Over" huh? [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img]

Re: Flip the Cards Over
 

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i don't see how this is close at all. we only get outdrawn 6/40 times (15%). we are just about getting even money to call on the flop with our 5 outer and if we improve on the turn we gain at least 2 big bets 85% of the time (depending on how bad the guys with QQ/22 are).

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I don't think you are discounting your outs nearly heavily enough. We do NOT have 5 outs here. It's more like 3-4.

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you really must be wondering why the thread is called "Filp the Cards Over" huh? [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img]

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OHHHHHH.....

I get it.

No, of course villain isn't making a mistake. FTOP-wise this is an easy call.

I was confused. I thought you were trying to figure out whether it's generally a mistake.


Yeah, so it's a call here I guess... [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Re: Flip the Cards Over
 

Now, I have to ask this.

Why is it that uninformed players make this +EV call, and we don't? What are we seeing here that makes us fold?

The flop raiser is a solid tag. What type of range do we give him here?

Let's say the PFRer is also a tighter and aggressive player. What are we giving him here?

Re: Flip the Cards Over
 

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Why is it that uninformed players make this +EV call, and we don't? What are we seeing here that makes us fold?


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When there is a bet, a call, and a raise, all 3 players will have &lt;= 2 outs very rarely.

Re: Flip the Cards Over
 

No backdoor flush draw, five outs against a known TP? He's sandwiched between two guys with big hands on the flop, and he cold calls a raise, which could get reraised and capped before it comes back to him? Yes, this is terrible.

EDIT: Interesting results. Would have thought it was a mistake instead of a +EV play, assuming he could see all cards held.

ScottieK

Re: Flip the Cards Over
 

[ QUOTE ]
EDIT: Interesting results. Would have thought it was a mistake instead of a +EV play, assuming he could see all cards held.

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I guess that's what just bothers me. It's stupid, I guess.

Someone once talked about looking at "suckouts" from a the other's perspective. When I look at one like this, I see it wasn't a suckout, and he played his hand perfectly according to the ftop. Other times I see one, I realize that I underestimated implied odds.

At any rate, I think we all agree that his flop call is horrible in practicality. I guess just another facet of luck for a fish is that they stumble upon +EV calls.

Re: Flip the Cards Over
 

a cold calling button will usually have (depending on his stats) aq/aj(usually suited)/at(suited,hopefully for him)/99/88/77(maybe)/kq/kjs.
so after rasing the flop i'd reduce him to aq/aj/88/99(creative).
PFRer should have approximatly 88+/ATs+/KTs+
since in reality we DON'T know the others' cards we can't take out the possibility of a reraise/cap and the possibility of drawing alomost dead (no outs vs 88s as running T's get us killed) and have 4-5 outs vs the button's other possible holdings.
ran Pstove with these hands and gace CO hands with 8's and 4's (no aces though as assumed he'd raise)and pairs 77-
(might be too narrow as he could be an idiot), and BB has 13.1% equity.
MP1 will reraise AT+ here ~50-60% of the time with the hand range i gave him and implied odds depend on CO and button calling (button would call).
pot odds are not there (4.5 outs), need to calculate implied but must leave here, will try tomorrow. intuition tells me BB is short on his implied odds for a call (will need to pay at least 4 sb, probably 5 so he needs 40 sb in the pot by the end).

Re: Flip the Cards Over
 

I hate 2p2's software.

I had a long response ready to post about how he has about 4.7 outs and he doesn't have the best implieds here given the fact that QQ and 22 aren't exactly pot-committed, but what it comes down to is that he's getting about 6.25:1 when he needs 7.2:1 and he can make a peel if he's good enough to extract extra bets when he turns 2pr or trips and get away from his hand when he gets redrawn (board pairs 8's on river against 2pr, board pairs Ace on river against either).

So basically what it comes down to is this: with the cards known, a good player can make this a profitable call, and a bad player probably can't.

Rob

Re: Flip the Cards Over
 

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Why is it that uninformed players make this +EV call, and we don't? What are we seeing here that makes us fold?

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What makes me laugh my ass off:

A 2+2er is much more likely to make the flop bet from MP1 with only 4% equity than they are to make the call from BB with 20% equity.

AHAHAHAHAAHAAHhhAAAHHAaH


Good post. It's got me thinking.

Re: Flip the Cards Over
 

I'm getting different number than this.

I think 4.7 outs is a good estimate.

41 unknown cards, of which 4.7 are outs. Which leaves 36.3:4.7 or 7.72:1 odds.

Also, while he is getting 6.25:1 immediately, I don't think it's right to assume CO and MP are folding every time. CO especially looks like he is calling to try to spike a deuce. I would addd another 1.2 SB or so and say the actual odds are 7.45:1 (assuming we are never 3-bet like Qtip said).

Getting 7.45:1 and needing 7.72:1, we only need to make up .54 SB (we need to double the number since we are putting in two bets), which will be easy.

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So basically what it comes down to is this: with the cards known, a good player can make this a profitable call, and a bad player probably can't.

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According to your calcs, T4 needs to make up only 1BB to make it profitable. As long as he isn't calling on the turn when he misses, I think a terrible player can easily call profitably. Even if the other two fold, he'll usually be able to get 3BB out of Hero alone.

Re: Flip the Cards Over
 

Q,

This is the absolute best case spot for T4 when it isn't ahead, and that is why this post is somewhat of a mirage. There are 41 unseen cards that can come on 4th and 5 will help us. This give us a 12.2% chance to improve, or about 5.7 outs on a traditional scale.

If we connect on the turn, we will lose to a redraw 8/40 times when we make two split and 5/40 times when we make trips. So on average, the villians have 6.8 outs against us on 4th street. This ammounts to 17% of the time.

When you do 12.2%*83%*47 cards = 4.76 outs (using the traditional method of 47 unseen cards). So we would need to be getting about 8.9:1 to call here if this put us all-in. We are getting 7.25:1 to call (if everyone else comes along) so we need to make up 1.65 SB in implied odds to make this call +EV. This is a no brainer call.

Edit...

What if the dude with 22 actually had KT? Let's see how much of a difference this would make.

p (improve) = .0976
p (out redrawn) = .5*3/40 + .5*9/40 = .15

Implied odds needed = 3.81 SB

So even that small change makes a huge difference. Then figure it out for the times that you are dominated or are drawing dead to trips/quads and it gets much tougher.

Re: Flip the Cards Over
 

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I'm getting different number than this.

I think 4.7 outs is a good estimate.

41 unknown cards, of which 4.7 are outs. Which leaves 36.3:4.7 or 7.72:1 odds.

Also, while he is getting 6.25:1 immediately, I don't think it's right to assume CO and MP are folding every time. CO especially looks like he is calling to try to spike a deuce. I would addd another 1.2 SB or so and say the actual odds are 7.45:1 (assuming we are never 3-bet like Qtip said).

Getting 7.45:1 and needing 7.72:1, we only need to make up .54 SB (we need to double the number since we are putting in two bets), which will be easy.

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So basically what it comes down to is this: with the cards known, a good player can make this a profitable call, and a bad player probably can't.

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According to your calcs, T4 needs to make up only 1BB to make it profitable. As long as he isn't calling on the turn when he misses, I think a terrible player can easily call profitably. Even if the other two fold, he'll usually be able to get 3BB out of Hero alone.

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Yeah, the numbers are a bit off in mine. I had the whole post done and did the rest from memory since I lost the damned pot. The main point I was trying to make is that as long as he suddenly plays the turn/river fine (checkraise turn with improvement, checkfold river if you get sucked out on), his call isn't all that bad. But that's a pretty unreasonable situation.

Rob

Re: Flip the Cards Over
 

Numbers are a bit off in mine as well.

We should be getting about 7:1, not 7.45:1, which means we have to make up about 1.5 SB. Still easily done.

Re: Flip the Cards Over
 

couldn't this be a scenario where BB "lucked" into a +EV call? wouldn't he be just as likely to peel if he had 10s3c on a flop of A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] with the same action? probably so, and this time as circustance would have it he is drawing dead as he probably has on so many unprofitable calls before this one.

Re: Flip the Cards Over
 

I think that is the point. Here is a scenario where all of BB's outs are totally clean, and there are no horrible redraws against him. There is basically no scenario better than this. A lot of the time, his two pair may give someone else a better two pair, or he's still behind a set, or even when it doesn't make him a second best hand, it will give someone a flush draw or OESD. The problem is that while even the former examples may not happen too often, when they do he's going to lose 3 or 4 big bets. That really goes a long way to killing his implied odds.

And that isn't even factoring in getting 3-bet on the flop.

This happens quite a bit. It's like how a calling station is much harder to bluff than a TAG. His weakness is a strength against some plays. Obviously on the whole it is a big net negative, but it gives him some strategic advantages that a TAG doesn't have. Making the odd correct call like this is another example. A third might be the "loose flop call" that Nate the Great once posted about. Something that really good and bad players do, but not decent players.

The problem is that the bad player doesn't understand WHY something is good or bad, and will repeat an action that is correct in some circumstances in others where it isn't. Ideally as a good player you can learn when to apply the "good bad plays".

Re: Flip the Cards Over
 

There should really be a notational distinction between 'correct' play(a la TOP), and the most likely estimate(mle? the 'right' play?) of correct play when there's imperfect information. By taking mle play as much as possible, good play comes close to 'correct' play more often than any other strategy. The donk that always calls will ocasionally beat the mle strategy (like this example) but it doesn't happen often enough to make his overall strategy not terrible.

I like this example of the distinction between correct play and the right play:
http://www.pokerstove.com/analysis/quad-jacks.php

Re: Flip the Cards Over
 

Yeah, the BB who called this flop definitely found his situation to be much, much better than it was LIKELY to be.

I am trying to become the guy who bets less with 4%!

Re: Flip the Cards Over
 

I'd call. Seems a bit better than breakeven. He's getting about 13.5:2 on the flop. That's guessing he gets one caller behind him on the flop and never 3-bet. When he catches a T AQ has 6 outs against him on the river. When he catches a 4 AQ has one out. So it's not much of a redraw. I think he'll win 3 BB's when he wins almost every time.

I didn't read any other responses and I'm not doing the actual EV equation. It's more complicated than it seems at first. If anyone does you need to include a turn call as well b/c he'll have the odds to call the turn if a blank falls. You also need to consider that there's some chance button will 3-bet a turn raise which is good. Small chance but definitely some. And then there's also the slight possibility that one of the other two will stubbornly and blindly call down. I see worse calldowns daily. That's also a bonus. Or they may at least both call the flop. Also good. There's also a possibility of a flop 3-bet. Again very slight. But I was just 3-bet on a AKQQ board by pocket 5's about 20 minutes ago. So it's there. Complications upon complications. But it definitely looks +EV.

Changing QQ to KK or whatever may actually sway it if you give AQ a better redraw. I think it would make it closer to breakeven anyway.