I hit my draw...now what?
 

Posting in the BB on my first hand at this table. No reads on UTG or CO.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (12.40 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Button folds, Hero calls, UTG calls, MP2 folds.

Turn: (9.70 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls, UTG calls.

River: (12.70 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero....?

I can think of 3 different lines that have some merit, but I'm not sure which one is best.

Re: I hit my draw...now what?
 

C/r seems safe. Bettor almost assuredly has trip aces and will bet the river.

PS. Still getting my Brazillian wax you saw me taking earlier at $5-$10. Come back and join the fun.

Edit: Whoops. Missed the middle man. Bet call is probably better.

Re: I hit my draw...now what?
 

bet/call

Re: I hit my draw...now what?
 

I like bet/call, trap homeboy in the middle.

Re: I hit my draw...now what?
 

donk with the intention of 3-betting. I think CO has an ace here a lot and will raise enough of the time with it to make the donk profitbale. Plus you might be able to trap UTG for some bets before he calls it quits.

Re: I hit my draw...now what?
 

I like bet-call because the board pair is an A, you'll probably get 1 bet twice from UTG's big pair or weak-played A, and you may get a raise out of a non-FH from CO, counteracting the times he was dicking around and checks behind.

-d

Re: I hit my draw...now what?
 

[ QUOTE ]
donk with the intention of 3-betting. I think CO has an ace here a lot and will raise enough of the time with it to make the donk profitbale. Plus you might be able to trap UTG for some bets before he calls it quits.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this too. Could somebody going with bet/call explain why it is better than bet/3bet?

Re: I hit my draw...now what?
 

I'd go for a bet/3bet.

Re: I hit my draw...now what?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
donk with the intention of 3-betting. I think CO has an ace here a lot and will raise enough of the time with it to make the donk profitbale. Plus you might be able to trap UTG for some bets before he calls it quits.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this too. Could somebody going with bet/call explain why it is better than bet/3bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

We probably don't want to call a cap, and the 3 bet faces the middle man with 2 cold.

Re: I hit my draw...now what?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I like this too. Could somebody going with bet/call explain why it is better than bet/3bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because even a donk may lay down KK-JJ to a 2nd and 3rd bet and we're going to get capped against MPs FH. So, we're basically freerolling that once we get raised on the river MP has trips and not a FH. (And I think he has a FH over half the time.)

-d

Re: I hit my draw...now what?
 

Definitely bet.

My question is whether to three-bet a raise or call and hope for a double overcall from the dude in the middle.

If we raised and get capped, we may likely be screwed, and that's lame.

If we simply call, we may well get the same bet from the middle dude with lower risk. I don't see middle dude calling two cold on the river that often here, unless he has the case A. Who knows. He may not call the raise anyway, so we might be missing value. Who knows.

Damn this is tough. Flip a coin. Without reads I just end up having little opinion here.

With a gun to my head I guess I'll say three-bet, though.

Re: I hit my draw...now what?
 

I also prefer a bet/3-bet rather than a bet/call.

There are two things you are trying to evaluate (assuming you have the best hand...):

- The likelihood that the middle guy will call one bet.
- The likelihood that the CO will call two bets.

If the first event is more likely, then you want to go for the bet/call. If the second event is more likely, you want to go for the bet/3-bet.

To me it seems that anyone holding an Ace will likely call two bets here. On the other hand, someone with KK (or some such hand) which might what the middle guy has, could easily fold. And, even if he were willing to call one bet, he might also be willing to call two bets.

Also, if you 3-bet, it's even possible that
1) The middle guy will cold-call
2) the CO will four-bet

In either case you'll earn extra. There's a small possibility you're behind to a boat, but I think it's a small enough possibility that you need to take the risk and bet/raise for value.

Re: I hit my draw...now what?
 

Wow...I'm a little suprised by all the bet/3-bet proponents; this wasn't even one of the lines that I was thinking of. I think I regurgitate many lunches in preturbance if I get capped by CO (unless he does it with AK or something).

Re: I hit my draw...now what?
 

[ QUOTE ]
PS. Still getting my Brazillian wax you saw me taking earlier at $5-$10. Come back and join the fun.

[/ QUOTE ]

I decided to quit while I was ahead for the night. $7.50. Woohoo. I think I'll supersize lunch tomorrow. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: I hit my draw...now what?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I like this too. Could somebody going with bet/call explain why it is better than bet/3bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because even a donk may lay down KK-JJ to a 2nd and 3rd bet and we're going to get capped against MPs FH. So, we're basically freerolling that once we get raised on the river MP has trips and not a FH. (And I think he has a FH over half the time.)

-d

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he has a FH way less than half the time. If he has a FH, he has an underfull on a flopped set &amp; may not even cap it. Ask yourself though, do guys who cold call 33 fastplay their flopped sets? In my experience, they do not, and he has a FH here almost never.

jvs

Re: I hit my draw...now what?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think he has a FH way less than half the time. If he has a FH, he has an underfull on a flopped set &amp; may not even cap it. Ask yourself though, do guys who cold call 33 fastplay their flopped sets? In my experience, they do not, and he has a FH here almost never.

jvs

[/ QUOTE ]

I gotta disagree. CO is holding A3/A4 a huge % of the time. His line definitely matches with top two turned into a boat, although it could just as easily be AT/A9 type hands for mere trips. In any case, the guy has got to be pretty aggressive for me to want to bet/3bet. Middle guy is clearly going to call if you bet/call...

Re: I hit my draw...now what?
 

I meant that he has a FH over half the time he raises our river donkbet.

-d

Re: I hit my draw...now what?
 

He cold called a utg raise. If he did it with a3 or a4, that's terrible, and you shouldn't assume he's lousy until he proves he is. Doing it with 33 or 44 is also bad, but players seem to do this all the time. However, few players play their sets this fast. He should have aq-at or a timid ak.

Re: I hit my draw...now what?
 

I think some people are missing the fact that there were already two coldcallers when CO coldcalled preflop. With 3 players already in and good position relative the PFR, that's a pretty standard call with any pocket pair.

Re: I hit my draw...now what?
 

Does anyone else like a 3bet on the flop. Or am I just obsessed with jamming draws into large fields.

I donk/3bet. Mainly to get the guy stuck in the middle.

JT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Re: I hit my draw...now what?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone else like a 3bet on the flop. Or am I just obsessed with jamming draws into large fields.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the flop action had gone bet/mass call, I'd intended to check/raise. But when CO raised and it was already down to 3-handed, I didn't want to 3-bet OOP and risk losing another opponent.

Re: I hit my draw...now what?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
PS. Still getting my Brazillian wax you saw me taking earlier at $5-$10. Come back and join the fun.

[/ QUOTE ]

I decided to quit while I was ahead for the night. $7.50. Woohoo. I think I'll supersize lunch tomorrow. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I took the hint after dropping $400. Was playing pretty frustrated when I called down with those aces. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Re: I hit my draw...now what?
 

You can bet/3bet, bet and call the raise and go for overcalls, or go for the check raise (which I think is worst because 1)i know the is rare but getting checked thru would suck and 2) i think you will get 3 bet here enough that checkraising makes the least money.

i'm hoping those are the 3 lines.

Re: I hit my draw...now what?
 

i like bet/call. IMO bet/3-bet is a bit much, but my river play is weak.

Re: I hit my draw...now what?
 

Bet/call...i have no idea what utg has but it would seem like kk qq ...if this is the case and u donk the river , he calls, then the CO 3 bets you could either:
a.)reraise or b.) call ....clearly
If you reraise :
you will knock out the UTG who you have beaten almost always
you will give the CO the chance to raise you when he has you beat(I'm thinking about one in 3 here he has you beat)


SOOOO I'd just call

Re: I hit my draw...now what?
 

I'm just throwing this out there:

...but I initially would have replied c/r on the river, until I started reading everyone's replies. I figured betting would give everyone odds to call (almost 13 to 1) where it seems very likely that CO will bet, you can raise, and at least make UTG face two bets cold for about 7.35 to 1.

Now since most everyone is saying to at least bet, I don't know. Can someone explain why my reasoning is incorrect?

Re: I hit my draw...now what?
 

I think bet/call is optimal here. I believe the transparency of your holding is being a little overlooked here. Based on your play throughout and your sudden spring to life on the river I think most 5/10 opponents will confidently assign you a straight or greater. Thus, I think you're rarely raised by less than a full house.

Anyway, all the main benefits of this line haven been explained well by others, so I thought I'd add this to the list.

Disclaimer - I only jumped on 5/10 last week and only have around 2500 5/10 hands under my belt, and thus may be overrating our opponents a little.

Re: I hit my draw...now what?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm just throwing this out there:

...but I initially would have replied c/r on the river, until I started reading everyone's replies. I figured betting would give everyone odds to call (almost 13 to 1) where it seems very likely that CO will bet, you can raise, and at least make UTG face two bets cold for about 7.35 to 1.

Now since most everyone is saying to at least bet, I don't know. Can someone explain why my reasoning is incorrect?

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem with check-raising is it will likely scare off UTG, as it's unlikely he'll call two cold without an A. This means, we gain no BBs from check-raising and open ourselves up to the possibility of a 3-bet. We want to trap UTG here, rather than force him into making a correct fold.

Hope that helps clarify the decision not to check-raise.

Re: I hit my draw...now what?
 

How often is UTG calling our donkbet on the river? It looks as if he has KK-JJ and wants to call down to see the A that cutoff has. Now, the guy in front of him bets out. He's got to be thinking of letting this go a large percentage of the time, no? Not only does the guy behind him probably have an ace, but now the guy in front of him donkbets the river and if he calls, he'll probably get raised. Sure, he could be a really bad player and call anyway, but how does that affect the line?

I'm thinking maybe now we should C/R if we assume UTG is going to fold anyway and then call a 3-bet.

Re: I hit my draw...now what?
 

[/ QUOTE ]I gotta disagree. CO is holding A3/A4 a huge % of the time. His line definitely matches with top two turned into a boat, although it could just as easily be AT/A9 type hands for mere trips.

[/ QUOTE ]

This seems like a contradiction. How could he have A3,A4 a HUGE percentage of the time and easily have AT,A9 or anything AK - A2 (since we're giving credit for A3,A4)? Aren't we wrongly assuming the worst?

Re: I hit my draw...now what?
 

[ QUOTE ]
How often is UTG calling our donkbet on the river? It looks as if he has KK-JJ and wants to call down to see the A that cutoff has. Now, the guy in front of him bets out. He's got to be thinking of letting this go a large percentage of the time, no? Not only does the guy behind him probably have an ace, but now the guy in front of him donkbets the river and if he calls, he'll probably get raised. Sure, he could be a really bad player and call anyway, but how does that affect the line?

I'm thinking maybe now we should C/R if we assume UTG is going to fold anyway and then call a 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

or C/C going for the overcall from UTG and avoiding getting 3-bet.

Re: I hit my draw...now what?
 

Bet/3-bet seems sound vs. unknowns. UTG doesn't want to get go of his hand, and you've got the only real draw on board unless he's got like BD spades, so he's likely calling your bet. CO looks like a naked ace.

If the CO just calls your river bet, you're netting 2 BB.

If you c/r, they might both fold, and you're netting 1BB, and it's hard to imagine them both call, so you're risking losing 1BB to win as much as you can expect to win if you c/r anyway.

Re: I hit my draw...now what?
 

[ QUOTE ]
UTG doesn't want to get go of his hand, and you've got the only real draw on board unless he's got like BD spades, so he's likely calling your bet.

If the CO just calls your river bet, you're netting 2 BB. If you c/r, they might both fold

[/ QUOTE ]

If I'm UTG, I'm folding every time to Hero's river donkbet. Why would he want to keep it?

CO would fold for one more if we C/R? Wouldn't he have to put us on precisely 56? If anything, he's calling for peace of mind.

Re: I hit my draw...now what?
 

You're not UTG though, and luckily in the universe of party poker, your avg UTG probably calls the donkbet here with an ace.

But basically he's tons more likely to call one river donk and an extra scary river check raise.

Re: I hit my draw...now what?
 

[ QUOTE ]
You're not UTG though, and luckily in the universe of party poker, your avg UTG probably calls the donkbet here with an ace.

But basically he's tons more likely to call one river donk and an extra scary river check raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess I'm assuming he doesn't have an ace too much because of his line. How often do you think he has an ace?

Re: I hit my draw...now what?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'd go for a bet/3bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: I hit my draw...now what?
 

He has an ace less often than he has something like KK-JJ, but if he's calling the turn with those hands, I would think he's likely calling the river.

Re: I hit my draw...now what?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I like bet/call, trap homeboy in the middle.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: I hit my draw...now what?
 

I'm in the bet/call camp, going for 2 from UTG. If UTG folds to my donk then I still think I call. What reasonable player in the CO raises this river to my donk out of nowhere with less than a boat?

I can't fold, and he won't either, so he only needs a boat 1/3 of the time for my 3-bet to be EV neutral (assuming he's no idiot who will cap with trip A).

Re: I hit my draw...now what?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Disclaimer - I only jumped on 5/10 last week and only have around 2500 5/10 hands under my belt, and thus may be overrating our opponents a little.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are overrating them by a LOT, IMO. The idiots at 5/10 are like Walter from The Big Lebowski -- their stupidity manifests itself in unexplainable brinksmanship and aggression. Mark it zero dude. You are entering a world of pain. Etc, etc. Coming from 2/4, it was an interesting transition to say the least... but the play is just as bad, though in different ways.