buying one out with KK
 

Live 4/8 hand. I have red KK, and I suspect I am up agaisnt AA. There are three to the turn, me first, then unknown, then AA lady. (Three bet preflop, called a 4 bet, raised Q high flop)
16 BB in the pot on Turn: Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
I am first to act, and know the second player with bet if he has a flush, otherwise check or call, and that the lady with possible aces with bet if checked to.
Should I try for a checkraise to either protect against a single spade to buy the K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] out?

Re: buying one out with KK
 

Nobody is going anywhere in this pot, a check-raise is not going to protect your hand, push anyone out, or buy any outs. The K of spades may kill your hand by making a flush or a straight so you may have as little as one out here. That being said this is a huge pot. From SSHE we know that, "often with large pairs you committ yourself to a showdown."

Call this down and expect to lose, but given the action a check-raise will probably not increase your chances of winning this pot.

Re: buying one out with KK
 

[ QUOTE ]
Nobody is going anywhere in this pot

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: buying one out with KK
 

K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] isn't folding in a 16BB pot even for 2 bets. And it's only worth 1/2 an out anyway.

If you think AA lady would only 3-bet Group I hands, then you're drawing mighty thin as you're losing to all big pairs except the other KK (who's freerolling you). About the only thing you're beating is AKo with a single spade - which will still outdraw you over 25% of the time.

I think c/ring here is a total spew.

Re: buying one out with KK
 

I am not trying to get the K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] to fold, I am trying to get the J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or TT to fold.
So that if the K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] falls, I have to only worry about the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in her hand.

Re: buying one out with KK
 

Ok. Let me put it another way.

You are almost assuredly behind already. You have, at best, 1.5 outs, since the K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is tainted.

You should not be c/ring here to buy half an out.

Re: buying one out with KK
 

call down.

Re: buying one out with KK
 

Why not check/fold, getting 16 to 1 with one out?

Re: buying one out with KK
 

You are behind with no draw and are deciding between a bet and a check-raise?! Why don't you just check-FOLD?

confused.
eric

Re: buying one out with KK
 

The value of buying like 60% of an out or whatever is like buying between 1 and 2 percent of the pot. The pot would need to be at least 50 bets before we should even start thinking about this.

Re: buying one out with KK
 

Basically when you think you are likely behind, you shouldn't be putting in more bets than we have to, especially when we're trying to buy one out. Buying an out is buying a % of the pot, so you're putting in one or two extra bets to maybe buy 2% of the pot.

Re: buying one out with KK
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why not check/fold, getting 16 to 1 with one out?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because we don't know for sure villain has AA or the other has a flush. KK is a big hand and should be shown down here unless it's two bets back to hero on the turn.

Re: buying one out with KK
 

I 'could' still have the best hand. If I do have the best hand, there is a good bit of value of getting the jack or ten to fold.

If I raise the turn and a spade comes, leading the river gives me a good chance to win the pot if the middle player does fold.