Stars 20+2, flop top and bottom 2pr, painful turn
 

Villain had just been moved to the table a couple hands ago so I had no reads (always seems to be the problem). I hadn't been getting out of line and neither had anyone else at the table. The table had been playing passively but I don't know about villain.

Blinds 15/30
Villain is on the button with $2400, I am in the small blind with $2200.
3 limpers to me including villain, I complete with A5s, big blind checks.

Flop (Pot $150) comes AT5 rainbow, none of my suit.
I bet $100, folded to villain who calls.

Turn (Pot $350) is a K, completing the rainbow. I bet $300, villain makes it $1000.

I think this fold is much easier than it appears at first glance but I'm curious what others think.

Re: Stars 20+2, flop top and bottom 2pr, painful turn
 

The K doesn't seem to scare me. Why? Well if villain has any brains he would have raised PF with AK to eliminate a few of the 5 people in the pot. If you're beat I think it is to a set or possibly A10. If he was an idiot and was trying to slowplay AK against 5 people I would have to say more power to him. I personally have a hard time finding a fold. He could easily be thining "he is in the SB and didn't raise PF he must have a weak A to bet that flop". I may be wrong but the fool moves people make always astound me.

Re: Stars 20+2, flop top and bottom 2pr, painful turn
 

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The K doesn't seem to scare me. Why? Well if villain has any brains he would have raised PF with AK to eliminate a few of the 5 people in the pot. If you're beat I think it is to a set or possibly A10. If he was an idiot and was trying to slowplay AK against 5 people I would have to say more power to him. I personally have a hard time finding a fold. He could easily be thining "he is in the SB and didn't raise PF he must have a weak A to bet that flop". I may be wrong but the fool moves people make always astound me.

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Your post kind of contradicts itself. If he's make a "fool move" then he could have easily limped with AK, no?

And why do you discount a set so readily? This is the perfect board to play it like this. Broadway also just hit, FWIW.

In fact, I only see 3 reasonable hands that I'm ahead of that could even think about playing like this: AQ, AJ, and KT.

Re: Stars 20+2, flop top and bottom 2pr, painful turn
 

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The K doesn't seem to scare me. Why? Well if villain has any brains he would have raised PF with AK to eliminate a few of the 5 people in the pot. If you're beat I think it is to a set or possibly A10. If he was an idiot and was trying to slowplay AK against 5 people I would have to say more power to him. I personally have a hard time finding a fold. He could easily be thining "he is in the SB and didn't raise PF he must have a weak A to bet that flop". I may be wrong but the fool moves people make always astound me.

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i don't think AK is the hand he's worried about.
besides a set or AT, the very popular QJ makes the nuts.

btw, i think it's an easy fold too.

Re: Stars 20+2, flop top and bottom 2pr, painful turn
 

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The K doesn't seem to scare me. Why? Well if villain has any brains he would have raised PF with AK to eliminate a few of the 5 people in the pot. If you're beat I think it is to a set or possibly A10. If he was an idiot and was trying to slowplay AK against 5 people I would have to say more power to him. I personally have a hard time finding a fold. He could easily be thining "he is in the SB and didn't raise PF he must have a weak A to bet that flop". I may be wrong but the fool moves people make always astound me.

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i don't think AK is the hand he's worried about.
besides a set or AT, the very popular QJ makes the nuts.

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Very true. I didn't think about the str8. I'll be more observant next time. I missed it since most people probably would not have called your bet after the flop with QJ. So basically you would have folded to a raise with any paint coming on the turn or river though, right?

Re: Stars 20+2, flop top and bottom 2pr, painful turn
 

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So basically you would have folded to a raise with any paint coming on the turn or river though, right?

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I don't even remember saying that I folded. Just that I found this to be an interesting and confusing situation at the time. After thinking about it a lot I THINK it's an easy fold but I'm curious as to what other think and will try to explain my reasoning if anyone disagrees.

Re: Stars 20+2, flop top and bottom 2pr, painful turn
 

If he has me beat it's with QJ or a set of 5's.

I find a fold hard here, but may be the best option... He could easily do that with AQ or AJ, thinking that you are betting a weaker hand.

I would hate to fold and hate to call... So I call and call his river bet and loose it all. I don't raise it here, because he doesn't fold a hand that i beat, but may bet AQ or AJ on the river.

Re: Stars 20+2, flop top and bottom 2pr, painful turn
 

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So basically you would have folded to a raise with any paint coming on the turn or river though, right?

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I don't even remember saying that I folded. Just that I found this to be an interesting and confusing situation at the time. After thinking about it a lot I THINK it's an easy fold but I'm curious as to what other think and will try to explain my reasoning if anyone disagrees.

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You didn't say that you folded, but since you find it an easy fold, I kinda assumed you did. I didn't think it's as easy as a fold as you do (maybe thats why you have 3500 posts and I have >100). Sorry for wasting your time

Re: Stars 20+2, flop top and bottom 2pr, painful turn
 

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You didn't say that you folded, but since you find it an easy fold, I kinda assumed you did. I didn't think it's as easy as a fold as you do (maybe thats why you have 3500 posts and I have >100). Sorry for wasting your time

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[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

This is good discussion. I'm still trying to decide whether it is as easy as it seems. I'm a MTT newbie [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Anyway, I think that, yes, I would fold to that raise on any paint card.

If this were the river it would be an easy call, but villain has made it obvious that I'm playing for my stack, which is what I think makes it an easy fold.

Re: Stars 20+2, flop top and bottom 2pr, painful turn
 

The $1000 bet, looks like a bet to scare you more than a Str8. If i had a str8 with position, I would raise to 600 or 800 max... I would even call this bet and min-raise your river bet or something else to extract more money than to scare you. However, a set could play it like that, a little fast but would make sense to charge you for a AJ or AQ...

I call and loose.

Re: Stars 20+2, flop top and bottom 2pr, painful turn
 

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If he has me beat it's with QJ or a set of 5's.

I find a fold hard here, but may be the best option... He could easily do that with AQ or AJ, thinking that you are betting a weaker hand.

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i think AJ and AQ raise you on the flop knowing that that TPGK is a very vulnerable hand and it's best to win the pot right away rather than slowplay.

i also think AT is a very likely hand here.

Re: Stars 20+2, flop top and bottom 2pr, painful turn
 

I think you're ahead here more often than you think. He could easily have KQ or KT as well as AQ and AJ like you mentioned. I think folding (which is an option, I GUESS) is weak-tight.

Re: Stars 20+2, flop top and bottom 2pr, painful turn
 

I think you're flop was good. A bet from that position should indicate a solid hand from you...

But, if he made the straight on the turn- with no flush draw on the board- why would he raise so much. He's better off calling or just raising you to $600 if he thinks you're bluffing....tough call.

You don't have a read on him- it's early in the tourney- you have a decent stack. i may lay this one down.

Re: Stars 20+2, flop top and bottom 2pr, painful turn
 

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I call and loose.

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Why not fold and lose less? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

People are saying call but what hand range do you guys put him on? I have no problem making a call that loses if I can at least put him on a hand range that I'm ahead of long term.

Does this look solid?

Board: Ad Th 5s Kc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 45.0498 % 44.02% 01.03% { Ac5c }
Hand 2: 54.9502 % 53.92% 01.03% { TT+, 55, ATs+, KTs, QJs, ATo+, KTo, QJo }

Re: Stars 20+2, flop top and bottom 2pr, painful turn
 

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I call and loose.

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Why not fold and lose less? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

People are saying call but what hand range do you guys put him on? I have no problem making a call that loses if I can at least put him on a hand range that I'm ahead of long term.

Does this look solid?

Board: Ad Th 5s Kc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 45.0498 % 44.02% 01.03% { Ac5c }
Hand 2: 54.9502 % 53.92% 01.03% { TT+, 55, ATs+, KTs, QJs, ATo+, KTo, QJo }

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This seems fair, but I hate including TT+ and AK, or even AQ, because any decent player raises those hands.

I know you have to, but if you didn't, here's what you have:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 50.6245 % 49.27% 01.36% { Ac5c }
Hand 2: 49.3755 % 48.02% 01.36% { 55, AQs-A9s, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AQo-ATo, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

Re: Stars 20+2, flop top and bottom 2pr, painful turn
 

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I think you're ahead here more often than you think. He could easily have KQ or KT as well as AQ and AJ like you mentioned. I think folding (which is an option, I GUESS) is weak-tight.

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agreed, KT is possible so i withdraw my previous "easy fold" comment. i still think it's a weird way to play AQ, AJ, or KQ.

Re: Stars 20+2, flop top and bottom 2pr, painful turn
 

I like your range... given that it's a call and loose. You have the odds to call but are likely loosing if you don't improve...

Re: Stars 20+2, flop top and bottom 2pr, painful turn
 

OK, against a good player I would only expect to see 55, A10 or QJ.

AJ+ (o or s) raise PF with a decent stack.
10s+ also raise PF.

A set of 5 or top 2 pairs on the flop, would most likely call you and raise the turn. QJ, shouldn't have call your flop bet, but with pot odds (if he thinks you have a really good hand), he could call only 100 to win an all-in.

So if he is good, it's an easy fold. However, you are in the second level, there's 3 or 4 bad players per table.

A bad player plays AQ, AJ, maybe also KQ. He may bluff and just test you and fold to any raise or just check if you call.

The question is : How good is he?

Since the odds that he is good is close to 50/50, then both options are good. However, why not risk it now and cruise for a bit or start a new tourney if you are not lucky?

Re: Stars 20+2, flop top and bottom 2pr, painful turn
 

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However, why not risk it now and cruise for a bit or start a new tourney if you are not lucky?

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i hate being a nit but i think you have to approach all these situations in a vacuum and disregard the fact that starting another tourney is an option ... you don't want to develop habits that lead to bad calls online and bad folds in live tourneys.

i do agree that it probably comes down to a question of "how good is he?" or "how much of a donk is he?". i tend to assume that people are decent and NOT donks until proven otherwise.

Re: Stars 20+2, flop top and bottom 2pr, painful turn
 

You are right... I would call because I am ahead more often then not.

Re: Stars 20+2, flop top and bottom 2pr, painful turn
 

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i do agree that it probably comes down to a question of "how good is he?" or "how much of a donk is he?". i tend to assume that people are decent and NOT donks until proven otherwise.

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I had no reads (always seems to be the problem)

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I agree with you, and I think that's what makes this foldable. If this were a $2+0.20 then I'd call in a heartbeat looking to get it in. In a $20+2 I'm starting to notice that I should assume players are decent until I see otherwise.

FWIW, I called turn. River was a nothing card, and I check/called his push. He showed the nuts (QJs). NH by him. When I bet into him it's obvious that I have at least a decent hand. He only had to call 5% of his stack to (probably) stack me.

I am starting to notice as I move up though that I need to make these folds more regularly.

Re: Stars 20+2, flop top and bottom 2pr, painful turn
 

However, I would not have bet 100 on the flop. You should have bet more or gone for a CR. Your hand is vulnerable to a lot of turn cards (as you have seen but any card under a 10 could have make a 2 pairs hand with an Ace).

A CR will likely kill the action but that's ok given your hand is strong but vulnerable. A flop bet of 150 or 200 will be called by few hands, A10+ (with or without 2 pairs) but should'nt be called by a drawing hand.

If you expose yourself to many hard decision in a tourney, you are going to make at least 1 costly mistake, by betting harder, you minimize the chance of having to do these decisions...

Re: Stars 20+2, flop top and bottom 2pr, painful turn
 

the $100 bet on the flop might have been too small but i don't see how the hero could have bet much more than $200 on the flop without giving some serious reverse implied odds -- any hand that calls much more than $200 on the flop probably already has him beat and will end up stacking him.

i like a $150-$200 bet on the flop ... $250 tops.

i don't like the check-raise here because you can't be sure that anyone will in fact bet the flop and, as you mentioned, your hand is vulnerable enough that you don't want to risk a free card.

it's a rainbow flop so there's no flush draw and any straight draw is a gutshot, and with the hero offering 2.5:1 odds, it's incorrect for a gutshot to call based on expressed pot odds alone. the call from QJ is only correct if the villain believes that he can extract enough from the hero if he hits his King to make up for the fact that he's an approx 4:1 dog on the flop. unfortunately, he was correct this time.

*edited to correct villain's odds on flop (adjusted for 2 cards to come)

Re: Stars 20+2, flop top and bottom 2pr, painful turn
 

I haven't read the other replies yet, so hopefully I'm not repeating too much of what has already been said. I think your two pair is right at the junction between easy fold and easy push. I lean toward a fold, because I don't see any one-pair hand playing the way Villain does here. An ace either calls down or raises the flop. A worse one-pair doesn't usually bluff like this after you lead both the flop and the turn. Also, Villain puts in a pretty solid raise (raises about 2/3 the pot, and about twice the size of your bet). Given that you've shown strength by betting OOP on two streets, I think a raise from Villain needs to be taken seriously.

The lack of preflop raise from Villain suggests to me he has 55, JQ, 10/10, K10, or maybe AK, in roughly that order (55 and JQ might be switched in order, only because you have a 5 in your hand).

I fold.