JJ overpair facing strengh on flop (1/2 on Stars).
 

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, Hero ?

It's many second hand at the table. What should I do ?
Thank you for your help.

Re: JJ overpair facing strengh on flop (1/2 on Stars).
 

If this was heads up, I'd go WA/WB and call down, but I think you can fold here without too much worry. The pot is small, and you're being led into by a UTG limper and the original PFR. Since you have no reads/stats yet its hard to put these players on a range, so I would just fold. The only hands MP2 might have that he wouldn't probably cap with that are beating you are 99 and QQ. I think UTG+1 probably has a 5.

Could be way off since you have no reads. I tend to play it safe in situations like this, and hope there's a showdown so you can see these guys' hands.

Steve

Re: JJ overpair facing strengh on flop (1/2 on Stars).
 

[ QUOTE ]
If this was heads up, I'd go WA/WB and call down, but I think you can fold here without too much worry. The pot is small, and you're being led into by a UTG limper and the original PFR. Since you have no reads/stats yet its hard to put these players on a range, so I would just fold. The only hands MP2 might have that he wouldn't probably cap with that are beating you are 99 and QQ. I think UTG+1 probably has a 5.

Could be way off since you have no reads. I tend to play it safe in situations like this, and hope there's a showdown so you can see these guys' hands.

Steve

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry steve, but I disagree with much of this. This pot is quite large.16SB on the flop is a crapload. I think the reason to fold is not that it's difficult to put them on a hand range, but because their potential range will have us dominated. There's no reason to put UTG on a 5. I think he has a 9 here WAY more often than a 5.

Re: JJ overpair facing strengh on flop (1/2 on Stars).
 

Yeah, I just get cautious in situations like this. When I said the pot is small, I actually meant that it was small considering the odds and action; UTG is waking up after a preflop limp, and MP2 is raising into that flop as well, so I don't really think we can continue here, especially considering reverse implied odds. At these low limits, I don't see people firing at the pot after the flop too often unless they have a good piece of it. Then again, if UTG has a 5 he's probably slowplaying it if he's a bad player. Sometimes I forget to look at how my opponents think instead of how I think about a hand.

Steve

Re: JJ overpair facing strengh on flop (1/2 on Stars).
 

With 2 players showing this much strength after your pf 3-bet, I say you're behind and drawing to the 2 remaining J's. In a perfect world you're against A9 and TT, but I think it's more likely you're facing some combo of 99, TT, QQ, A5, A9, or AA/KK that didn't cap pf. Of these you only beat TT and A9, and you have 2 players telling you they are best. This flop might also get capped, in which case I would want to vommit. HU I might call to river, but here I fold with a clear conscience.

Re: JJ overpair facing strengh on flop (1/2 on Stars).
 

This hand is pretty easy. Cap and lead; fold if faced with two on the turn.

Your hand is still good here the vast majority of the time.

Re: JJ overpair facing strengh on flop (1/2 on Stars).
 

I call here, and call a flop cap. I don't like folding immediately because there's still a decent (read: not fantastic, not horrible) chance we're ahead, and I want to see the action behind me. I check-fold the turn UI to a flop cap. All other situations I'd reevaluate.

Re: JJ overpair facing strengh on flop (1/2 on Stars).
 

I ran some combos on pokerstove and w/16sbs we seem to have equity to at least see a turn, but it's not great if my combos are realistic. I think call/cap flop is close and lead, fold turn is good. If turn lead is not raised, I value bet safe river. Thoughts?

Board: 9h 5s 5d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 17.2205 % 16.42% 00.80% { JdJs }
Hand 2: 41.3898 % 39.71% 01.68% { 99+, A9s, A5s, A9o, A5o }
Hand 3: 41.3898 % 39.71% 01.68% { 99+, A9s, A5s, A9o, A5o }


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973,434 games 0.328 secs 2,967,786 games/sec

Board: 9h 5s 5d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 09.1313 % 08.62% 00.51% { JdJs }
Hand 2: 45.4344 % 43.43% 02.01% { 99+, A5s, A5o }
Hand 3: 45.4344 % 43.43% 02.01% { 99+, A5s, A5o }

Re: JJ overpair facing strengh on flop (1/2 on Stars).
 

I think your estimate of their hand ranges is erronous. I'm thinking the first guy can easily have any pair.

Also, MP2 is very unlikely to have a five, much more likely to have 77-1010, given his preflop action.

Re: JJ overpair facing strengh on flop (1/2 on Stars).
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think your estimate of their hand ranges is erronous. I'm thinking the first guy can easily have any pair.

Also, MP2 is very unlikely to have a five, much more likely to have 77-1010, given his preflop action.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seems reasonable. I'm probably giving too much credit, but what is MP2 3-betting with here? Definately not 77 or 88, and probably not TT unless super-LAG.

Re: JJ overpair facing strengh on flop (1/2 on Stars).
 

For me the preflop limper has something within 55-99, maybe a lose A9 or A5 although he would have probably folded them to the preflop reraise. So for me he can FOR SURE have 77-99 and maybe 55-66/A9/A5 or even a big pair.
The preflop raiser is very unlikely to have anything but 99-AA (he didn't cap preflop so it's not likely he's a maniac). Many players don't cap preflop with big hands to "hide" them so there is some chance he has a big pair. I don't see him reraising the flop with anything but 99-AA on such a board and I only beat TT from these hands.
For me we have to chose a play (call-lead/cap-lead/call-fold to a cap), calculate the likeliness that I'm beat and get called all the way (by QQ for instance), I'm beat and get raised and I'm in front and get called. We then have to see how many bets I win/lose in each situation to see if the play is profitable.
I actually folded the hand (and the preflop raiser too) because I figured out I only beated TT but I probably had the odds to see a turn.