Hand from the Orleans
 

This was a final table hand from a live multi:

Ante: 500, Blinds 1500/3000. 8 players left, chip counts approximate.

SB (55,000)
BB Hero (38,000)
UTG (7000)
UTG+1 (70,000)
MP1 (20,000)
MP2 (15,000)
CO (25,000)
Button (20,000)

UTG goes all-in for her last 7000 and UTG+1 calls. UTG+1 is trying to be loose-aggressive with his stack, but he's easy to control and easy to read. He calls and it's clear that he doesn't want to put any more chips into this pot preflop.

Everybody folds to the BB Hero who has 6s7s.

There's 22,500 chips in the pot and it's 4,000 to call.

Payouts:
1st: $5k
2nd: $3K
3rd: $1,800
4th: $1,400
5th: $1,200
6th: $950
7th: $750
8th: $650


What to do?


Irieguy

Re: Hand from the Orleans
 

I would reraise all in because you can then eliminate UTG+1 and it gives you plenty of dead money in the pot for a chance to outdraw UTG

Re: Hand from the Orleans
 

Plan A)
Normal tournament "etiquette" is that you call and check down with UTG+1 to eliminate UTG, but I'm guessing that's not what you're looking for here. If I am confident that I can out play UTG+1 post flop, I'm going to call and see if I can't get some more chips out him while UTG is eliminated.

Plan B)
If everybody is wanting to make a deal, I'd keep saying stuff like "why would I want to make a deal with you clowns, you have no chance... I'm double barrelling Heinekens and pwning you all BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!"

Then, once we get down to 3 players and I'm toasted to the point where I can barely see the board anymore, and they start begging for a deal I'd finally I say "Ok, we'll split it even on one condition: You guys HAVE to go to the strip club with me afterwards and we all have to go to the VIP room." Then, we'd all go to Jaguars.

But you'd probably do something different.

Re: Hand from the Orleans
 

You have a good read on him so I would call and outplay him on the flop.

Re: Hand from the Orleans
 

How likely are you to extract any money from big stack if you hit your hand? Doesn't sound too likely. Given that and the fact that you are pretty sure he/she folds to a preflop push, why not push and give yourself the best chance at winning the same amount of chips as if you had called for the same price?

Also, with 67s you are very unlikely to beat shorty if you don't improve at all so there isn't much use in a stone cold bluff after the flop.

Re: Hand from the Orleans
 

i think this is a clearcut raise...heres why: you are getting 6:1 on your call and with a suited connector you will never be that big of a dog. furthermore, if the big stack calls your raise, you will be able to outplay him later in the hand.

edit: oops 6:1 was on the call....even still i like a min raise if you are that confident that he will not come over top of you.

Re: Hand from the Orleans
 

[ QUOTE ]
oops 6:1 was on the call....even still i like a min raise if you are that confident that he will not come over top of you.

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for that reason I think its best to push since you put maximum pressure on him and are almost certain he will fold.

Re: Hand from the Orleans
 

Hrmm, I think this decision is tougher than what it appears to be at first -- I originally thought it was an easy call but I'm not so sure. Your implied odds with a mid-suited connector are non-existent since you only have 12-13 BB's left in your stack. However, your current pot odds are fantastic so you definitely can't fold. After thinking about it more, and given your confidence in your read that UTG+1 won't put any more money in, I think a push is in order with the dead money in the pot. If a 6 or a 7 flops I wouldn't feel comfortable putting more money in (given the shortness of your stack) on most flops, so a pre-flop push would feel safer. You'd have to check fold most flops anyway. I think the big drawback is showing UTG+1 and the rest of the table you're willing to make this play with 67s. They're going to be a lot more willing to call you later on, and with the blinds this high I don't think you want that. Great post, the hand didn't look that interesting at first glance.

Re: Hand from the Orleans
 

this is directed to everyone:
Im not sure Irie wants the image of a guy who re-raises all-in with 76s so I would fold. Of course I might be wrong since Im preety much clueless when it comes to anything thats not a party SNG.

Re: Hand from the Orleans
 

I agree that this is the problem with re-raising all-in. However, the size of the pot relative to Irie's stack size is huge and the blinds aren't going down anytime soon, so if you're going to make a move like this I think this is the perfect time. I just really don't like the option of calling here when you know you're going to have to fold most flops (and betting when you do catch a pair with this short of a stack is really risky).

Re: Hand from the Orleans
 

Oops I thought hero had 55k in chips. I think pushing or folding is best. I would push.

Re: Hand from the Orleans
 

oh irie, whats the buy-in? just curious.

Re: Hand from the Orleans
 

As far as image goes, it could be good to preserve a tight image, but there is value in an aggressive image too. People will fold to your BB and will be afraid to make small raises at you. You will be more likely to be paid off when you have a big hand and more likely to see cheap cards when you don't.

Whether it is more +$EV to preserve you image here depends on how aggressive the rest of the table is and if they are letting you be the first one in the pot in late position.

On second thought...
 

I really hate pushing the big stack out of this hand. He may have the short stack beat here (and Irie clearly doesn't), and by taking him out of the hand here the result is going to be tripling up the short stack a majority of the time. I'm changing my vote to call (temporarily; I might have to change it again) and see a flop. It will greatly increase the chance of busting the short stack, and maybe big stack will be nice enough to check it down even if you don't like the flop. Given Irie's read of him, this possibility doesn't seem too far-fetched -- that he'll check it down even with a decent hand. I'm interested to hear what others think.

Re: Hand from the Orleans
 

[ QUOTE ]
Payouts:
1st: $5k
2nd: $3K
3rd: $1,800
4th: $1,400
5th: $1,200
6th: $950
7th: $750
8th: $650


[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Hand from the Orleans
 

I'd be interested to know how/when she got short-stacked. If she had folded the last five hands, most likely her all-in here indicates strength to me. If she just lost most of her chips the last hand or so, then she holds any two.

Pot odds are great here, but either one of them has you dominated 61.5% of the time (but I'm not good at math). I fold and let her double up through UTG+1 with her AKc, then rake off her BB next hand to even up.

Either that, or tell her you will fold if she gives you a lap-dance right then and there. Given the number of Heinekens consumed it wouldn't matter to you at that point if she were Phyllis Diller....... Cheaper than Jaguars.

Slacker - Who lives in a pineapple under the sea.

Re: Hand from the Orleans
 

[ QUOTE ]

UTG goes all-in for her last 7000 and UTG+1 calls. UTG+1 is trying to be loose-aggressive with his stack, but he's easy to control and easy to read. He calls and it's clear that he doesn't want to put any more chips into this pot preflop.


[/ QUOTE ]

Given this read, I most likely push right here. As somebody else pointed out, if the big stack is playing somewhat tentatively, it doesn't seem like we're necessarily that likely to extract high value from him if we make a hand postflop. UTG is probably pushing with anything better than average. I think hero is likely to be a 60-40 dog to this range, which is good enough to make this worthwhile since Hero is really only paying 4000 to win 18.5, assuming UTG+1 will fold.

The major concern with this play, to my mind, is that it looks horrendous to have to show down 76s here after this move. It really puts a dent in your credibility that might make it hard to run over the table afterwards. I would need to think about how I was likely to be perceived by my opponents afterward. If this makes it harder for me to steal with crap later, then the gain might not be worth it. But it looks like a pretty high +EV spot to push.

Re: Hand from the Orleans
 

given your read on UTG+1, I think he'll shy away from confronting with you unless he has AA or KK.

I say push.

Re: Hand from the Orleans
 

with those stacks no way Big stack folds QQ or AK. He will prolly call with soemthing like 77 .

On third thought... lol
 

I'm going back to saying push! Who cares if you triple up the short stack? It's not like you're close to busting out and the pay difference between 7th and 8th is really small. You have a lot of equity versus the SS's pushing range, and you pretty much know big stack will fold. Even though you're probably behind (ok definitely), I think this is too good of a chance to accumulate chips and shoot for first. It's a clear push [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: On second thought...
 

Given the payout structure, I don't see much value in busting out the shortstack. I think I just want cheap chips.

edit: posted before I saw your retraction

Re: Hand from the Orleans
 

Personally, I hate pushing here. You are 3rd in chips, and there is no need to get stupid at this point. You are risking $5k vs. $650 on 67s. Let me say that again...you are going to risk $5k vs. $650 on 67s. Late inning poker likes big cards that can possibly win unimproved. Particularly when you're all in. The pot odds are very good for a call here and the two can check it down. I don't even like trying to outplay the opponent on the flop for two reasons. One, if the flop hits you, you don't have to outplay him. You can simply make your usual value bets and collect. Two, if you the flop doesn't hit you, you don't stand to gain much, if any at all, by outplaying him, because you're most certainly beat by the UTG opponent.

Call and check it down if the flop misses you (or fold if UTG + 1 bets). Call and bet if it hits you.

Re: Hand from the Orleans
 

You are not risking $5k. You are risking something like a 20% shot at $5k.

Re: Hand from the Orleans
 

I keep wavering on my decision, so despite what I say I definitely think it's close. I don't like this line because your 67s simply won't be worth anything on most flops. Even the 1 out of 3 times you flop a pair there will be 1 or 2 scary overcards. I don't recall the exact odds for flopping 2 pair or better, but it's small enough to be irrelevant. The idea of calling and value betting your pairs would be great if you had enough chips to attempt value betting a pair of 6's. With only 12 BB's though, what if you catch your 6 or 7, value bet (which would amount to 1/3 of your chips), then get raised with 2 overcards on the flop? I think calling is too risky if you plan to bet with just your medium pair. The push is definitely risky too, but Irie seems pretty confident in his read that UTG+1 will fold to his push so I like this opportunity to try and accumulate chips. My feeling is that this is the type of play you have to make to win tournaments, given the current size of the blinds and the pot odds you're getting.

Re: Hand from the Orleans
 

oh gad please dont tell me you folded.. holla

Re: Hand from the Orleans
 

Given your read...I think you push here. I don't think you'll extract value from big stack b/c he's probably only playing the hand if he hits, and you'll have to hit it very hard to be ahead at that point.

I'd guess the big stack thinks it's his responsibility to call here but as you said, doesn't want to risk becoming short with a non-premium hand.

What will the table seeing 76s push do to your table image? Will they suddenly try to call you with anything? Will they be very afraid and cow to you b/c you're a manaic and they just want to survive?

Yugoslav

Re: Hand from the Orleans
 

maybe the Big stack had a monster...My guess is irie pushed , the short stack had AT, the big stack JJ, nobody improved and Irie went home with seventh place

Re: Hand from the Orleans
 

If you push, everyone will see your hand given the all-in player. So much for stealing credibility (which it looks like you're going to want later on).

Since there's a good chance that if you flop a draw you'll see the Turn/River for free (unless you read UTG+1 as the type of loose aggressive fool to bluff with no side pot), why not just call given those juicy odds. By pushing, you really don't increase your odds of winning the chips in the pot by that much (what range do you put UTG on and how does 76s do against it vs. UTG & UTG+1 being in pot?), and your image being shot may cost you later, as it looks like you're going to have to do some stealing as the blinds continue to escalate.

Re: Hand from the Orleans
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
oops 6:1 was on the call....even still i like a min raise if you are that confident that he will not come over top of you.

[/ QUOTE ]

for that reason I think its best to push since you put maximum pressure on him and are almost certain he will fold.

[/ QUOTE ]


irie said that this guy is his son...in live play this means a lot...that being said id push online.

Re: Hand from the Orleans
 

Putting both other players in the pot on reasonable hand ranges, I'd say forcing the big stack out of the pot increases your equity by a good 10% or so. That's about a 2,250 chip increase in expectation. I don't think the effect on your image will be too devastating. I just wouldn't push a hand like 76s for awhile, and with the game being 8 handed you can afford to be patient.

Re: Hand from the Orleans
 

[ QUOTE ]
He calls and it's clear that he doesn't want to put any more chips into this pot preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

With this read it's an obvious push, unless this means that he will call you and not be happy about it.

Re: Hand from the Orleans
 

[ QUOTE ]
That's about a 2,250 chip increase in expectation. I don't think the effect on your image will be too devastating

[/ QUOTE ]

If UTG is eliminated this hand, there will be 8,000 in the pot next hand. Next level of blinds, that will increase signficantly and continue to do so. 12,000, 16,000, 24,000, and so on (or whatever the numbers are - depending on what the blind increases are exactly/how many players are left to ante).

So, when Hero pushes his 76s over UTG and UTG+1, the players at the table will see that:

(a) Hero risked all his chips over the top of a "loose aggressive player" with a pretty garbage hand; and

(b) in order to win any chips on this hand, Hero still had to outdraw UTG (who likely is a pretty good favorite), yet this didn't stop him from putting his entire tourney life on the line.

Hero is probably going to be short stacked enough later on to have to push all-in to steal blinds/antes. Suppose you're a player in the BB (or behind Hero) with a pretty good hand, wondering whether Hero is likely to be pushing a wide range including semi-garbage, or whether he only pushes good hands. Stuck in your mind is the 76s hand. You call instead of folding, and instead of stealing blinds without a showdown, Hero has to suck out to stay alive.

The above doesn't have to happen very often for the 76s all-in play to not be worth it.

Re: Hand from the Orleans
 

I completely agree. But as Yugo sort of pointed out, showing 76s here will definitely reduce the amount of people trying to steal Irie's blinds, and I'm not real sure how much their push calling standards will widen out. Even if they know Irie may be ramming trash, its still a tough call to make with a less than premium hand at this point in the tournament.

Re: Hand from the Orleans
 

Agreed about the increased likelihood you'll be called in the immediate future. I just think you need to limit your blind steals to situations where you figure to have the best hand to combat this problem -- e.g. pushing moderately strong aces from the button/SB or strong K's, etc. That way you figure to be a favorite if called (actually, a side benefit of your newfound loose image). I think our difference of opinion is in that you think hero's going to be short stacked enough later on to be forced to push trash to survive. He may be, but at that point people will know he's being forced to push trash anyway, and will adjust regardless of the 67s hand.

As you said, "Suppose you're a player in the BB (or behind Hero) with a pretty good hand." To use your image to your advantage, just push better than "pretty good hands", so if you're called you're in good shape.

Re: Hand from the Orleans
 

I agree that it might decrease the blind steals a little bit ("that guy's kind of crazy"), but he did nothing to show that he's a loose caller necessarily - just that he's willing to push with a crap hand with not much gain (on average). Unless the big stacks at the table are kind of clueless, I don't think they'll be stopped from running over Irie's blinds - and the short stacks will probably make their stands when they pick up a hand, wherever that is.

Occasionally those aggressive plays even have the opposite effect - you make a "macho-looking" play at a loose aggressive big stack showing him no respect, now he's out to make plays at you in particular. Not only is he not laying off your blinds, he's attacking you more often.

My opinion is that pushing 76s here is a pretty clear-cut case of FPS.

Re: Hand from the Orleans
 

[ QUOTE ]
My opinion is that pushing 76s here is a pretty clear-cut case of FPS.

[/ QUOTE ]

Calling may be the right play, but I think it is fancier than pushing.

Re: Hand from the Orleans
 

i read utg as desparate since she's posting next. I put her on a hand that's better than top 50%. ie: jt, q8+, any king, any ace, any pair

In a 50+5, i would just call, and check/fold to river if i dont catch any piece of the board.

Why in the world do you want utg+1 out? it's twice the chance to eliminate the short stack.

WHAT AM I MISSING HERE??? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: Hand from the Orleans
 

Why in the world do you want UTG to go broke? I mean, obviously you do want UTG to go broke, but it's simply not worth consideration when you're trying to pick up chips. Flat payout, you're 8-handed. Right now, getting more Chip EV is certainly worth letting UTG get more EV too.

If UTG+1 folds this 90% of the time, I think I'm pushing, I don't think it's close.

Re: Hand from the Orleans
 

Gramps....I'm confident Irie would adjust correctly to whatever change in his image results. However, it is very difficult for any of us to figure out exactly what the table image will be of him if he ends up showing this hand down.

Irie plays at the Orleans quite a bit...he may even already hae played with a few of his opponents. Furthermore, the only time I played there I swear that the maniacs had a better image than the tight guys....people were calling based on their cards, not on their image of you. However, everyone was hesitant to push into a maniacal big stack or stack that was sucking out every which way recently...

I think if Irie shows this it actually *could* have the potential to give him a more fearsome image.

I'd love to know what Irie thinks about that aspect of this situation. I think that should be the governing factor. I don't really like calling....much at all.

Yugoslav

Re: Hand from the Orleans
 

I don't like a push here. You lose all stealing credibility on a hand that you are probably in the 30-40% range. Taking UTG+1 out of the equation adds little equity here, because there's also a good chance you'll get some free cards from UTG+1.

Pushing risks too much to gain too little IMO since you have to make a hand to win anyway.