The Bar Stool Pundits, week 6
 

Confession: I am a Bar Stool Pundit. Half the influence on these picks is that my first impression of the line is how great it is. So I admit, I'm a Bar Stool Pundit. The only BSP fade all year that I actually liked was Dallas +3. For all the rest I felt nearly sick to my stomach putting money on it, especially Miami in week 3 and the 9ers last week.

So this week, I'm nervous because the biggest BSP pick of the week is forcing me to violate one of my main rules:

Natedogg's NFL betting rule #1: Never bet on or against New Orleans.

So...

Atlanta -5.5 at New Orleans Looks like Vick is going to start, so New Orleans has absolutely no chance. Time to back up the truck! The Bar Stool Pundits are nearly as excited about this game as they were about Philly at Dallas, which was probably the most popular lopsided BSP pick of the year.

As of now, Atlanta is the clear frontrunner with the BSPs. Some possibles that might show up tomorrow morning include Carolina, Pittsburgh, New England and as always, Indy.

I will be taking the following bets at this time:

Take New Orleans +5.5

natedogg

Re: The Bar Stool Pundits, week 6
 

Always look forward to these.

The Bar Stool Pundits would make a great name for a band.

Re: The Bar Stool Pundits, week 6
 

[ QUOTE ]
Confession: I am a Bar Stool Pundit.

[/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

Re: The Bar Stool Pundits, week 6
 

This one actually makes me sicker than San Fran last week. I felt like, hell, anything can happen with a new QB. No such luck with NO's interception machine playing tomorrow.

Still...

Re: The Bar Stool Pundits, week 6
 

I would have thought the Seabags -9 or so, over dreadful Houston would have been the BSP capper!

bc

Re: The Bar Stool Pundits, week 6
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Confession: I am a Bar Stool Pundit.

[/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi. I'm NhlNut, and I am a bar stool pundit.

Re: The Bar Stool Pundits, week 6
 

[ QUOTE ]
Pittsburgh, New England


[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
these are far from bsp picks. seattle is def the other frontrunner

Re: The Bar Stool Pundits, week 6
 

Seattle & Indy certainly being the other two BSP picks in my opinion.

it looks ugly, but i'm locked in on the Rams and the Saints.

Wagerline says most onesided this week are
 

Pittsburg 70%
Cinci 71%
Atlanta 76%

Indy is only 54%-46% over the Rams - possibly a ton of sharps on the side of the Rams?

suprisingly Seattle/Houston is "only" 63%-37%, there are eight games that are more lopsided than that game (only Min vs Chi, Cle vs Bal, NYG vs Dal, Indy vs StL are less one-sided).

Re: The Bar Stool Pundits, week 6
 

damn i was hoping Atl wasnt the BSP pick of the week... [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

i lose

Re: Wagerline says most onesided this week are
 

[ QUOTE ]
Pittsburg 70%
Cinci 71%
Atlanta 76%

Indy is only 54%-46% over the Rams - possibly a ton of sharps on the side of the Rams?

suprisingly Seattle/Houston is "only" 63%-37%, there are eight games that are more lopsided than that game (only Min vs Chi, Cle vs Bal, NYG vs Dal, Indy vs StL are less one-sided).

[/ QUOTE ]

Wagerline is one of the sources I include in my analysis of the BSP picks, but it is not the only one.

natedogg

Adding Detroit +2
 

The Yahoo! experts unanimously take Carolina. The ESPN experts unanimously pick Carolina. Carolina is even a popular pick in the 3+1 picks. Nobody gives Detroit a chance, including myself.

That's why I'm betting Detroit. It doesn't hurt that Detroit has only had the one bad game against the Bears. Carolina is on their second road game and they barely handled Arizona last week.

Take Detroit +2

natedogg

Re: Adding Detroit +2
 

Nate, I'm on board with both of them this week, as ugly as it is... good luck and keep 'em coming [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Adding Detroit +2
 

[ QUOTE ]


Take Detroit +2

natedogg

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Detroit up to +3 now. I am cringing (especially taking N.O. , this is a good sign.

Re: Adding Detroit +2
 

The move to +3 sold me, thanks for the heads up.

Lets keep it ugly this week gentlemen...

Re: Adding Detroit +2
 

I liked Detroit when it was -1. Added more this morning.

Hate NO as I still think you guys should eliminate teams with huge injuries. That skews things because of course everyone is going to go the other direction.

Re: Adding Detroit +2
 

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It doesn't hurt that Detroit has only had the one bad game against the Bears. Carolina is on their second road game and they barely handled Arizona last week.



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rational thought like this has no place in this thread!

Detroit is now a lock....
 

1 of 2

god bless you natedogg....

OMFG......NO just tied it!
 

Unfu*kingreal!

FG to win it......either way

AWWWW yahhhh!
 

nate-fu*king-dogg!

Re: AWWWW yahhhh!
 

Why do these BSP wins feel so much better than the regular "Lock of the Week?"

Oh yea, cuz I'm taking the "Lock of the Week" guy's money...

Re: AWWWW yahhhh!
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why do these BSP wins feel so much better than the regular "Lock of the Week?"

Oh yea, cuz I'm taking the "Lock of the Week" guy's money...

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL

Re: AWWWW yahhhh!
 

well done!

Re: The Bar Stool Pundits, week 6
 

I surrender!
 

Never again will I take on the BSP deities- you only get punished. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Nice call on the Falcons game. I didn't see any of the game, but I saw the Falcons were up 17-10 at one point, I believe?

Re: The Bar Stool Pundits, week 6
 

This is amazing.
Strangely enough it looks like the only game I'm winning this week is a quasi BSP pick in the Chargers.
Stupid Roy Williams - why don't the Cowboys just play with 10 guys on the field in the closing minutes?

Re: Adding Detroit +2
 

i think i'm in love

Re: Adding Detroit +2
 

I'm confused as hell. Did Detroit start the week as a 1 point favorite, then move to 2 point underdogs?

Re: Adding Detroit +2
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm confused as hell. Did Detroit start the week as a 1 point favorite, then move to 2 point underdogs?

[/ QUOTE ] Maybe. When i first saw them, it was a pick'em. It closed at +1.5 on Bodog, which is what I moved on.

Re: Adding Detroit +2
 

The line was even Det -1.5 at some spots, which I know for certain because I locked up a Car +7.5 teaser. It really was quite a line shift. More remarkable still that the +/- 1.5 made a huge difference.

Re: Adding Detroit +2
 

I grabbed Detroit -1 when the line first came out. It moved to -1.5 and I was happy I had already put my bet in. Then, on Saturday it went to Detroit +2. At that point I doubled my bet with the new line. Sunday morning it went to Detroit +2.5 and I put antoher bet in. I came out ahead because of the extra bets I put in. Now if only Caroline had not scored that last TD with under a minute left.....