5/10, top trips, top kicker. 3bet?
 

UTG is 19/11/3.50 after 107 hands. His river aggression is only 1.50 though.

Absolute 5/10 Texas Hold 'em <font color="blue">(9 max, 8 handed)</font>

Pre-flop: Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="red">UTG raises</font>, <font color="red">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="gray">6 folds</font>.

Flop: (7.6 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

Turn: (4.8 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

River: (6.8 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises</font>, Hero?

If I 3bet, he will fold a pure bluff, call with a lot of worse hands and cap with anything that beats me, plus some kings with bad kickers. Is 3betting +EV here? It seems I'll see 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] a lot here.

Re: 5/10, top trips, top kicker. 3bet?
 

The only plausible hands he has that beat us are 88 or 99, right? If he's not an idiot, open-raise UTG would eliminate pocket threes, K8, and K9. He could plausibly have another big pair or KQ/AQ if he's aggro.

The way he played the hand WA/WB, he had to put you on at least one king, right? If villain put us on trips from the flop, he was calling us down for two outs all the way through. That's pretty horrible poker.

He might have put us on a big pair with him holding AK or KQ, and discounting us as having the case king, he decided to slowplay to the river. That's what the hand feels like to me.

I think we're more likely chopping when he turns over the case king with *his* AK than we are seeing 99 FWIW. I would actually suspect he'd show us AK or KQ...

Post what he had after you get more replies...

Re: 5/10, top trips, top kicker. 3bet?
 

Man. I'd just call and save myself the mathematical headache. I'd be confident he has 99 or 88, with an occasional KQ.

Re: 5/10, top trips, top kicker. 3bet?
 

What about K10s, KJs, KQs, KQo, pure bluff, weird value bet from a lower pocket pair...there are a TON more combinations of these hands than 88 or 99. I would 3-bet this unless the person was a super tight rock. If you lost to 88 or 99, then that happens...there are still more hands from an unknown that you beat than beat you.

Re: 5/10, top trips, top kicker. 3bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
What about K10s, KJs, KQs, KQo, pure bluff, weird value bet from a lower pocket pair...there are a TON more combinations of these hands than 88 or 99.

[/ QUOTE ]

But there are not a TON more of those combinations that will C/R the river AND call a 3-bet.

From my limited experience in the 5/10 you are getting c/r'd or donked by any K sooner almost always.

Like a lot of these situations, I think the 3-bet is right on the edge, and highly read dependent.

Re: 5/10, top trips, top kicker. 3bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
From my limited experience in the 5/10 you are getting c/r'd or donked by any K sooner almost always.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was my thought as well. The K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] would have check-raised the turn at least. This guy suddenly wakes up on the river...

Re: 5/10, top trips, top kicker. 3bet?
 

If the villain has a Kx, he certainly played it in a weird way, most people wouldve shown aggression much sooner with this type of a hand. This looks like to me that he called down with 99s hoping his 2 pair was best and then he hit his magic card on the river. Going by sheer mathematics, you should just call and heres my reasoning. If you assume the villain will raise AK,KQ,KJs,and 99 utg then you are only a 5-3 favorite(this also assumes the villain is not an idiot and would not play AQ,AA,QQ,JJ,TT this way) being a 5-3 favorite is not enough to raise this river since you are laying 2-1 on your raise becuz you must call a 3 bet. Going by logic, you should also just call since most people do not play trip kings this way, pocket 99's is much more logical than trip kings given this action. So final answer is call the river checkraise.

Re: 5/10, top trips, top kicker. 3bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
What about K10s, KJs, KQs, KQo, pure bluff, weird value bet from a lower pocket pair...there are a TON more combinations of these hands than 88 or 99. I would 3-bet this unless the person was a super tight rock. If you lost to 88 or 99, then that happens...there are still more hands from an unknown that you beat than beat you.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are four combos of KT. I don't think this TAG's raising UTG 8-handed with KT. Four of KJ, Four of KQ. You don't count KQ and KQs as separate entities when adding hands. 8 combos. Six combos of 88, six of 99. 12 Combos. And this isn't a bluff 99% of the time. TAG's usually know better than to checkraise-bluff a river against another TAG.

8 is less than 12, but not significantly. Given the logic that he probably would have let us know a little earlier if he did indeed have a king, I think we have to worry much more about 99 and 88. Therefore, call.

EDIT: My money is on 99.

Re: 5/10, top trips, top kicker. 3bet?
 

If villain has a K we would have probably heard from him earlier given his aggr. numbers. We also can't really fold if villain caps the river. I'm not capable of folding it. Our ony fear is that villain decided to get tricky.

Re: 5/10, top trips, top kicker. 3bet?
 

don't 3-bet this. because you can't fold to a 4-bet, and you'll hate yourself.

btw it does really look like 99 or a misplayed 88.

Re: 5/10, top trips, top kicker. 3bet?
 

An 11% pre-flop raiser might open raise 88 and 99 here, but they both need discounting, in my opinion. He'd always raise AK, maybe KQ, and possibly KJs. I don't think he's ever open-raising KTs UTG if he's really an 11.

There are 3 AKs, 4 KQ, 1 KJs; 3 88 and 3 99. I think we need to discount 88, 99, KQ, and KJs a little bit. The point is, though, that we do not have a clear equity edge (note we are chopping here a bunch of the time), and certainly not the 66% we need to merit risking two bets to win one.

We should also consider that sometimes this is something weird like JJ or maybe a pure bluff, but a three-bet isn't getting called in those situations anyway.

So I think we can just call here. It is important to realize that it really isn't all that likely that we are up against a worse K. The most likely result may actually be something like JJ, but I think that this taggish type might fold to a three-bet anyway and so I don't really see the point in a three-bet.

The basic thing I can come to is that,

Re: 5/10, top trips, top kicker. 3bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]

btw it does really look like 99 or a misplayed 88.

[/ QUOTE ]

Does this imply that you feel Villain played well if he had 99 here? I didn't do the math that closely but it looks Villain would be at least a 4:1 dog to Hero's 3-betting range, getting 5:12 on a calldown or 3:10 if he can fold to our river bet UI.

Re: 5/10, top trips, top kicker. 3bet?
 

It might be really weak of me, but against a player with these stats I would probably just call. His river C/R indicates more that just 'I have a King' to me. I might be very wrong. Given the amount of times that we split or get capped and lose, I don't think 3-betting is profitable. Villain here is probably not trying to squeeze value out of the PF 3-bettor with his KQ. AK, 99, and 88 seem like the most likely holdings.

Re: 5/10, top trips, top kicker. 3bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
From my limited experience in the 5/10 you are getting c/r'd or donked by any K sooner almost always.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was my thought as well. The K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] would have check-raised the turn at least. This guy suddenly wakes up on the river...

[/ QUOTE ]

This and the fact that you have a read on him as being a decent player is the most important factor of the decision IMO.

results
 

UTG shows K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for the oddly played case king.

Re: results
 

[ QUOTE ]
UTG shows K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for the oddly played case king.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think villain's line here is kind of interesting and may have some merit.

If he reads you as taggish he has to know you're value-betting hands like QQ and AA on this river, but might find a fold with those hands earlier if you put the pressure on. By check-raising the river, he also probably shuts down a hand like AK (as happened exactly here) and so doesn't risk totally spewing against a bigger K. His line got in 2.5 BB minimum and usually 3.5 max, while reducing the risk of spewing more against a bigger hand.

Kind of interesting. Not necessarily best, but certainly interesting. It's kind of a modified wa/wb idea.

Re: results
 

How would you play villain's hand here? I'd probably lead the flop and call if raised then donkbet the turn. I think this line would bet best if I knew Hero was aggr.

Re: results
 

[ QUOTE ]
How would you play villain's hand here? I'd probably lead the flop and call if raised then donkbet the turn. I think this line would bet best if I knew Hero was aggr.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I personally think there are a zillion possible ways to play this hand. The idea is simply to make sure that 2.5-3.5 BB go in total. I think check-call, check-call, bet-call is fine. I think check-call, bet-call, bet/calldown river is pretty good to. The main point is that I just don't want any street to go unbet, I don't want to give villain an obvious place to fold QQ or something like that, and I don't want to put in too many bets against an opponent with AK. Bet-call, bet-call is also fine I think. I'd be more inclined to take a bet-early line if I thought it was likely villain would raise me with a hand like QQ or JJ.

Re: results
 

[ QUOTE ]
How would you play villain's hand here? I'd probably lead the flop and call if raised then donkbet the turn. I think this line would bet best if I knew Hero was aggr.

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I'd check/raise the flop and lead the turn. Worst case scenario is check/call the flop, villian checks behind on the turn and then folds to my river bet.