Turn Decision
 

Villain was something like 35/11 with an AF of 1-something after 150 hands. With this uncoordinated board, I don't think two pair is very likely, even for a 35% VP$IP. Also, I remember his flop and turn AF being the same (river AF jumped a bunch though), so I don't think he'll be slowplaying a ten very often. He seems aggressive enough to have raised TT preflop, but that still leaves nine combinations for a set. 64s is the only two pair hand I'd consider reasonable for him, but then I'd probably have to include 53s for the straight. The problem is that he'd play a lot of Tx hands, so I'm not sure what to do.

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, Hero . . .

Final Pot: 10.25 BB

Scott

Re: Turn Decision
 

Well, obviously you called down and weren't happy about the result. Without a spectacular read that this person is 100% ABC, I'd be calling down as well and hoping to find AT, 2 diamonds, or to catch a 5-outer against his 2 pair.

Re: Turn Decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
Well, obviously you called down and weren't happy about the result. Without a spectacular read that this person is 100% ABC, I'd be calling down as well and hoping to find AT, 2 diamonds, or to catch a 5-outer against his 2 pair.

[/ QUOTE ]
becasue he mised the turn 3-bet for value. but with his vpip i can just call down

Re: Turn Decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
Well, obviously you called down and weren't happy about the result. Without a spectacular read that this person is 100% ABC, I'd be calling down as well and hoping to find AT, 2 diamonds, or to catch a 5-outer against his 2 pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I called down, and yes, he did have a set. But that's not really my point. When he check-raised the turn I remember thinking three things:

1) I don't think he's loose enough to have two pair
2) I don't think he's tricky/aggressive enough to be making a move with top pair (or a flush draw)
3) Folding feels really weak

Roughly once or twice a day I find myself in situations like this, where I have thought-out reasons for folding but "don't want to be weak-tight". As a 13/7 player, I'm very (overly?) conscious of playing weak-tight, so I end up calling down more often than not.

Obviously, I don't want to make it a habit of being results-oriented when the "results" are as short-term as who won a specific hand, but the overwhelming majority of the time my thoughts are accurate. That is, the villain ends up being within the range of hands I put him on.

Historically, hand reading has not been one of my strengths, but I seem to be improving and am unsure how far to trust these instincts.

Scott

Re: Turn Decision
 

I'd have to have a really strong read that Villain only checkraises monsters on the turn to fold here. And even if I did have that read, I probably wouldn't trust it enough and would call anyway.

One interesting thing about the situation on the turn is that in one way the checkraise shows a lot of strength and in another way it doesn't. There doesn't seem like a whole lot to connect with on that board, so when Villain checkraises, you have to wonder if he has a set. On the other hand, it's possible he's thinking the board missed you and his 88 or AT is beating your AK.

It sounds like you think Villain would have put in action on the flop with one-pair hands, though, and I agree that that's the approach many (but not all) players with JT or 77 would favor.

Re: Turn Decision
 

Given the player and the action I dont see how you can call down this profitably. There is just no hand he is playing like this that doesnt beat you, 35% VPIP with an AF of 1+ isnt a great player, but he isnt a drooling moron.

I think folding is the best choice here, you would have to be beating him here 25% of the time for you to even breakeven, I just cant see that happening.

I too find myself in this situation over and over again, I think breaking it down to a percentage like this makes it a little easier for me to drop my hand or keep rolling with it.

(I arrive at 25% by, there is 7.25BB in the pot at the turn decision, if Hero calls down, he will be putting in 2BB to win 8.25BB, is my 25% correct?)

Re: Turn Decision
 

I 3-bet and fold to a cap.

Re: Turn Decision
 

I just reread sklansky's TOP "defense of semi-bluff" and it seems he would agree with 3bet/fold lines in this situation. He mentions that just calling is terrible umless the pot is big or you have outs.

ackid, would you take a line like this if the diamond draw had not just started?

also, for this hand most of hero's stats are probably multiway post-flop. since the hand is heads up, this should reduce the confidence we have in the postflop stats.

Re: Turn Decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
I 3-bet and fold to a cap.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is AWFUL!

We have 8 outs against two pair!!!!! Folding is totally out of the question on this turn.

That's why three-betting and folding to a cap is bad.

We could consider: three-betting, calling a cap, and folding the river unimproved, but we can get to showdown more efficiently by just calling the raise and calling the river.

For me this is a standard call-down. Folding is quite bad, because we have outs and often this will be a bluff or something like that. If checked to on the river I'm betting, and will consider folding to another check-raise unimproved.

I need a pretty strong read to either three-bet the turn for value or to fold on this turn (that would have to be VERY strong... like I KNEW my opponent had a set). Calling down is what I'll do in like 90% of situations.

Re: Turn Decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I 3-bet and fold to a cap.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is AWFUL!

We have 8 outs against two pair!!!!! Folding is totally out of the question on this turn.

That's why three-betting and folding to a cap is bad.

We could consider: three-betting, calling a cap, and folding the river unimproved, but we can get to showdown more efficiently by just calling the raise and calling the river.

For me this is a standard call-down. Folding is quite bad, because we have outs and often this will be a bluff or something like that. If checked to on the river I'm betting, and will consider folding to another check-raise unimproved.

I need a pretty strong read to either three-bet the turn for value or to fold on this turn (that would have to be VERY strong... like I KNEW my opponent had a set). Calling down is what I'll do in like 90% of situations.

[/ QUOTE ]


Hey Deranged,

I do agree that folding the turn to a c/r is not the best line most of the time with kings. This is because with hidden outs we have 8 clean outs to win.

But... Lets consider the situation here. You have a opener whos not a maniac or overly aggro. With a board of 4,10,2,6 with 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]s. What two pair could he be raising 10/6's or 4/6's thats seems unlikely. He could be raising on a flush draw, I wonder what his turn agg. stats are? I think 44/22/66 are the most likely candidates.

Like I said before Im probably not going to do this often but in this case I dont my line as awful. Plus the pot is still small so if we do happen to fold the best hand its not a catastrophe. I guess a case could be made for getting to sd cheaply by calling down if really need to see his trips on the end.

Re: Turn Decision
 

Ackid,

Good post.

A few things to consider:

1. Though the pot is small now, if we three-bet and then get capped, at that point the pot is huge. Folding then becomes a huge problem.

2. The OP mentioned that villain did play some weird T high hands.

The main point, to me, is that I don't see much advantage to three-betting, but I see a lot of disadvantage to folding to a cap. If we call the check-raise, villain will usually bet the river even if he was semi-bluffing and missed. We don't have so strong a hand, in my opinion, to make sure that 4 bets go in on the turn and river. 3 BB gets us to showdown and we need to never forget that getting to showdown is a very valuable thing.

Re: Turn Decision
 

Is there a reason why folding here is so bad? Like I mentioned in my earlier post he has to be bluffing here at least 25% of the time before we start showing a profit for calling down.

Is a 35/11/1 player really bluffing or playing a weaker hand then us here more then 25% of the time?

I have been calling down these and Villain almost always (much better then 75%) is showing down a hand that beats me.

Can someone explain a) why folding is so bad when we have an overpair to someone in a small-medium sized pot on an un-coordinated board who is check raising us on the turn with an AF of 1ish and b) whether my 25% for calling to be successful is correct.

Re: Turn Decision
 

At this point I want to see a showdown, therefore I think calling down is the correct play. I want to see a showdown which this hand and by just calling here and check-calling the river unimproved we get to see it in the cheapest manner. If we 3-bet here and it gets capped and even if it does not get capped, the pot becomes larger and folding becomes more difficult on the river following our 3-bet.

Re: Turn Decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
The OP mentioned that villain did play some weird T high hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I meant JT+ and T8s+, not two pair hands. Even if we rule out all two pair hands (which I don't think is too much of a stretch) so that I'm ahead of everything but 22, 44 and 66, I'm still not sure whether calling is correct. Yes, there are a lot of top pair hands he would play pre-flop, but I don't think he's aggressive enough to pull this play with them. If the T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] had been a different suit, that might sway my decision, but I simply don't see him check-raising the turn with A4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or a naked ten.

Scott

Re: Turn Decision
 

Why can't villain have a hand like A4/A2/K4 of diamonds?