2/4 Throwing away money with bottom set.
 

Empire 400NL full ring.

I have $394, Villain (19/5/1.2) has me covered. I believe he's a winning player.

I get 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in EMP

Villain limps, I limp, PFR raises to $20. All fold to Villain who calls and I call.

Flop is 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Villain checks, I bet $60, which is around the pot size. PFR folds. Villain makes it $180. I call.

Turn is 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

He pushes.

Uhh yeah. Just donate him the money I guess? Like.. what could he have? He's 1.2 aggression...

Re: 2/4 Throwing away money with bottom set.
 

Yeah this is bad - the 10% of the time he doesn't have a higher set he has 97 for the straight - I hate folding sets but after the flop check-raise would be the time to do it

Re: 2/4 Throwing away money with bottom set.
 

Probably straight or bigger set. I'm pretty sure it's a leak, but I still call. He could have massive draw. He could have two pair. He could have trickily played overpair trying to trap PFR and trapping you instead. Your hand is strong, your stack's not that deep, the board is draw heavy. I don't like folding here.

Re: 2/4 Throwing away money with bottom set.
 

yeah you are almost certainly behind here. the only reasonable hand for villain to have is 77, and his agression stats make me think he wouldn't play that this way. He limped and called a normal sized raise which makes me think PP and it has to be higher than yours. Given this particular villain I think i could find a fold here.

Re: 2/4 Throwing away money with bottom set.
 

If I were villain I might play 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] the same way. I probably stack off here.

The Doc

Re: 2/4 Throwing away money with bottom set.
 

[ QUOTE ]
If I were villain I might play 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] the same way. I probably stack off here.

The Doc

[/ QUOTE ]

do you often limp in EP with a drawing hand like this? i find it awefully hard to get maximum value on a hand like this. i would be interested in hearing more about how you play these hands profitably out of position to a PFR.

cheers!

Re: 2/4 Throwing away money with bottom set.
 

With a VPIP of 19 and him limping from EP I don't think I include 97 or 87 in his hand range. 88 or 66 seem a lot more likely.

I'd probably stack this guy here too unfortunately.

Re: 2/4 Throwing away money with bottom set.
 

I actually only included that 10% because even very tight players get bored/bad card runs and do odd things sometimes - but I agree that 66 or 88 are far more likely

Re: 2/4 Throwing away money with bottom set.
 

I called. He had 88 and MHING.

Oh well.
Ryan

Re: 2/4 Throwing away money with bottom set.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Probably straight or bigger set. I'm pretty sure it's a leak, but I still call.

[/ QUOTE ]
Wow, I'm awesome. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Re: 2/4 Throwing away money with bottom set.
 

When he pushes, you are getting 3 to 1 from the pot, so your bottom set only has to be good 25% of the time here to break-even on your call. Could you be 75% sure that you're beat here?

Re: 2/4 Throwing away money with bottom set.
 

sort of true, your bottom set has to be good 25% of the time by the river, so if he's got 75% chance of 88 and 25% chance of AK[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] then it's a clear fold

Re: 2/4 Throwing away money with bottom set.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Empire 400NL full ring.

I have $394, Villain (19/5/1.2) has me covered. I believe he's a winning player.

I get 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in EMP

Villain limps, I limp, PFR raises to $20. All fold to Villain who calls and I call.

Flop is 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Villain checks, I bet $60, which is around the pot size. PFR folds. Villain makes it $180. I call.

Turn is 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

He pushes.

Uhh yeah. Just donate him the money I guess? Like.. what could he have? He's 1.2 aggression...

[/ QUOTE ]

folding at any point in this hand is not allowed.

fim

Re: 2/4 Throwing away money with bottom set.
 

[ QUOTE ]
sort of true, your bottom set has to be good 25% of the time by the river, so if he's got 75% chance of 88 and 25% chance of AK[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] then it's a clear fold

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you really saying that you're folding a set (with 10 outs to a boat, including 2 of his flush cards*) to a AK [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] draw? You're ahead, his odds to make his flush are now 6 to 1*.
His bets don't represent a semi-bluff at all IMO, his large flop raise could have been a semi-bluff, but after the call, he wouldn't fire again, therefore I would say that the percentage of time he's holdiing AK [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is negligible.

Re: 2/4 Throwing away money with bottom set.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Are you really saying that you're folding a set (with 10 outs to a boat, including 2 of his flush cards*) to a AK draw? You're ahead, his odds to make his flush are now 6 to 1*.

[/ QUOTE ]

no he's saying that our opponent's hand range doesn't have a diamond or a combo draw enough of the time to make calling profitable. he's saying that 75% of the time, hero has one out for quads and the other 25% of the time he'll be ahead but will need to dodge the villain's flush outs. this makes it a very -EV call over the long run versus this specific opponent.