Call River with AQo Unimproved?
 

It's been a good night. Running up against a lot of solid 2nd best hands. I've been quiet for several orbits up until this hand.

Pre-flop and flop are standard for me. On the flop I meant to bet 6 but the mouse slider jumped back to 5 when I clicked.

I'm curious about opinions on the turn and river.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

UTG ($40.70)
UTG+1 ($128.60)
MP1 ($127.30)
MP2 ($40)
Hero ($326.95)
Button ($153.20)
SB ($18)
BB ($104.80)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. MP2 posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 (poster) checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls $3.

Flop: ($9.50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $5</font>, MP2 calls $5.

Turn: ($19.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, Hero checks.

River: ($19.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets $5</font>, Hero calls $5.

Final Pot: $29.50

Re: Call River with AQo Unimproved?
 

I don't think it matter much. If you plan on hanging around the table for a couple more hours, I'm inclined to call this.

Re: Call River with AQo Unimproved?
 

I don't like a call at all. I don't think you have the best hand which means you either raise or fold. I'd guess he probably has some sort of pair here. (maybe a draw--but I think more likely a pair)

Re: Call River with AQo Unimproved?
 

He doesn't look like the sort I want to be bluffing off pots. Figure a call has a -EV of $3-4ish at worst. Small price to show that you will showdown with Ace high.

Re: Call River with AQo Unimproved?
 

Id fold here, but in retrospect I feel you should have played a litte more agressively PF and on flop.

4BB+1limper = 5$ (probably wouldn't change much)

and I honestly HATE betting 1/2 pot, even as a cont. bet, just because people are so inclined to stick around with draws. Hell, if I had an OESD or a 4flush and someone bets 1/2 pot into me on flop, I usually call if we have decent stack sizes. 3:1 ~ 4:1 plus this is NL to implied odds = your stack becomes mine when I hit

but yeah, fold

Re: Call River with AQo Unimproved?
 

Ok, river call is definitely umm... 'iffy'. There were a few reasons I did it. I had great odds, 5:1 to advertize, see his hand, and possibly win if I'm lucky. Plus, don't you think a $5 bet into a $20 pot is a little weak?

For those of you who think I'm behind, the real question is how often am I behind here? I need to be good one-sixth of the time to break even on this call. If I'm good one in twelve (8.3%), I'm only losing $2.50 per call and I get the side benefits mentioned above.

As I said in the original post, my usual continuation bet is 6 (into 8.50 or 9.50), but I did 5 by accident. Should I be betting $7 here?

I'd still like to know who bets this turn and who doesn't.

Re: Call River with AQo Unimproved?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like a call at all. I don't think you have the best hand which means you either raise or fold. I'd guess he probably has some sort of pair here. (maybe a draw--but I think more likely a pair)

[/ QUOTE ]

A lot of times you can only call on the river even when you think you have the best hand. Your logic is faulty. If you have the best hand but he will not pay you off, a raise ears you nothing - and if it turns out that you didn't actually have the best hand, it costs you.

Re: Call River with AQo Unimproved?
 

I bet 7 and then quit the hand when he calls. I feel he has a pair.

Re: Call River with AQo Unimproved?
 

[ QUOTE ]
A lot of times you can only call on the river even when you think you have the best hand. Your logic is faulty. If you have the best hand but he will not pay you off, a raise ears you nothing - and if it turns out that you didn't actually have the best hand, it costs you.

[/ QUOTE ]

But here we don't have the best hand, and might raise as a bluff, not because we think we're value betting AQ UI. Right?

Re: Call River with AQo Unimproved?
 

His bet is generally too small to be a bluff, and there are very few hands which can call that flop out of position which don't beat ace high.

Re: Call River with AQo Unimproved?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
A lot of times you can only call on the river even when you think you have the best hand. Your logic is faulty. If you have the best hand but he will not pay you off, a raise ears you nothing - and if it turns out that you didn't actually have the best hand, it costs you.

[/ QUOTE ]

But here we don't have the best hand, and might raise as a bluff, not because we think we're value betting AQ UI. Right?

[/ QUOTE ]

I doubt a raise accomplishes much in this spot. What are you trying to represent? I can't imagine a pair not looking you up.

I just wanted to clear up the poster's misconception that "you have the best hand, so raise"

Re: Call River with AQo Unimproved?
 

Thanks for the replies. If it matters, I did win this hand. The villian showed 95[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and my hand was good.

Even with the results, I'm not particularly happy with how I played the hand. I think that if I wanted a showdown, I should have bet the turn. The truth was I didn't bet the turn because I was willing to let my hand go on the river. The small bet at the end was the only reason I called.

I was surprised at how many people said something to the effect of 'I think you're beat, fold'. Either there was some extra analysis that was taken for granted, or the response was not thought through properly. A few things I think worth at least considering here:

- You don't have to think you have the best hand here to call. You only have to think you'll win one out of every six times.

- I've noticed at 100nl that a lot of people who buy in short (and even people who don't), often give their hand away by their bet size. Just because in this case he bet small didn't automatically mean he had nothing, but I was surprised that wasn't even really discussed. If you think a small bet means either a bluff or a monster, I think that's an even larger argument for calling as I imagine a monster:bluff ratio would be much less than 5:1.

- No real hand ranges were thought of. I agree in this hand, the ranges are very wide. Still, no one even tried to put the guy on a hand range aside from 'he probably has a pair'. Sure, but how probable? What about possible hands that missed that I beat? He could play a middle ace like that, hoping to hit after the flop. He could play hands like 98, T8, or T9 that way. Perhaps he has a weak gutshot and backdoor flush. The board is full of rags. Would he call a raise with a hand that hit that board?

- Finally, what kind of hand does he put me on after I bet the flop and check behind? If he's a thinking player, can he bet the river for value against my hand range when a 2 comes (obviously not helping my hand)? What is the purpose of his river bet?

Again, in this hand we know the answer, but in other hands, you don't. I think it would be worth thinking about stuff like this more often. That said, I realize that every post can't go into a lot of detail and I'd prefer short responses to no responses. So, thanks for the replies.