$200 NL 6max flush draw and overs
 

Been playing with Villain for awhile. My read is he isn't good but the deck has been running him over, and he in turn has been running me over, which I can't stand. I have $350 and he way covers.

UTG raises to $8, Villain calls, I call with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. 3 way to a flop of:
5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

UTG checks, Villain bets $10, I go to $35, UTG folds, Villain makes it $85, I ?

I feel like this is an easy push with most likely at least 12 outs twice and more if he's going crazy with an overpair, which I doubt. I just hate shoving here and getting instacalled.

Re: $200 NL 6max flush draw and overs
 

[ QUOTE ]
I just hate shoving here and getting instacalled.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just hit dude.

Re: $200 NL 6max flush draw and overs
 

How aggressive is villian? Would he slowplay a straight here? What about a set?

Could you get villain to fold TT or 88 if you pushed?

Answer these and I can give more advice.

Re: $200 NL 6max flush draw and overs
 

Why would you want villian to fold 88 or TT to a push?

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 5c 3d 2d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Qd 602 60.81 370 37.37 18 1.82 0.617
8s 8h 370 37.37 602 60.81 18 1.82 0.383

One of the main reasons I push would because OP described villian as "bad" meaning he will most likely make a bad call.

Re: $200 NL 6max flush draw and overs
 

[ QUOTE ]
How aggressive is villian? Would he slowplay a straight here? What about a set?

Could you get villain to fold TT or 88 if you pushed?

Answer these and I can give more advice.

[/ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't say he's very aggressive at all, he's been making these weak ass lame flop bets all night long whether he was the raiser or called the raise.

As for being able to get villain to fold a smallish overpair here, I think he folds it quite easily, but do we really want him to?

Re: $200 NL 6max flush draw and overs
 

definitely push. dont worry, just cause you got instacalled this time and missed doesnt mean you made the wrong play.

Re: $200 NL 6max flush draw and overs
 

Didn't realize you're that much of a favorite vs. 88. Thought it was closer to a coin flip. Even against 55 you have 32% equity.

Push the chips in.

Re: $200 NL 6max flush draw and overs
 

[ QUOTE ]
definitely push. dont worry, just cause you got instacalled this time and missed doesnt mean you made the wrong play.

[/ QUOTE ]
I actually just called, turned an ace and he set me in and I donked off to a set of 3s.
I feel sick about this one.

Re: $200 NL 6max flush draw and overs
 

Would villain make the 3-bet with the likes of 88-JJ? I doubt it. I think a portion of the time he hit his set here, maybe 44 or 66. The fact that he smooth-called PF makes a low PP very likely.

So, I don't think you have much FE.

Re: $200 NL 6max flush draw and overs
 

Yea, you got to get the money in on the flop unless you're sure he would only make that play with a set or a straight (in that case you could call the flop and fold to his push on the turn).....

Re: $200 NL 6max flush draw and overs
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
definitely push. dont worry, just cause you got instacalled this time and missed doesnt mean you made the wrong play.

[/ QUOTE ]
I actually just called, turned an ace and he set me in and I donked off to a set of 3s.
I feel sick about this one.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think you would have felt alot less sick if you pushed the flop and still saw the same result. you have alot better equity then.

given youre read on villain i think you made the right play vs. his range of hands. tough hand though.

Re: $200 NL 6max flush draw and overs
 

Yea, the plan was to fold to the turn push. That ace was pretty though.

Re: $200 NL 6max flush draw and overs
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yea, the plan was to fold to the turn push. That ace was pretty though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea, it's a tough situation. But the only reason not to push the flop is if you're sure he has a monster. If that's the case, the A on the turn really doesn't help so you have to fold to his push.

By the way. The mere fact that he pushed the turn when an Ace came should have been a strong indicater that he did not have a middle pocket pair (the only hand you could beat).

Re: $200 NL 6max flush draw and overs
 

his raise is giving you 3:1,

you have 12 outs, thats only slightly -EV to just call to see the turn. However, the upside to this is that your have great implied odds to extract the rest of his stack when u hit u'r outs.

whereas a push, u'll be a slight underdog in most cases or behind by a fair bit. You folding equity is near zero in my opinion after his 3 bet, so u'r at best 50/50 against him.

Re: $200 NL 6max flush draw and overs
 

[ QUOTE ]
you have 12 outs

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero could have as many as 39 outs.


[ QUOTE ]
the upside to this is that your have great implied odds to extract the rest of his stack when u hit u'r outs.


[/ QUOTE ]

If he's drawing to 12 outs none of them will have his opponent readily giving away his chips. (Meaning they are all fairly obvious draws)



[ QUOTE ]
You folding equity is near zero in my opinion after his 3 bet, so u'r at best 50/50 against him.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think his folding equity is slightly higher...but do we really want villian to fold to a flop push? (Note Hero is 60/40 vs JJ)

Re: $200 NL 6max flush draw and overs
 

domeski,

since hero didn't give me a read, I'm going to assume a avg opponent. Do the avg opponent 3 bet with JJ? do the avg opponent bet 10 dollars into a 24 dollar pot and then goes to 3 bet it to 85 with JJ? this stinks of something much strong.

how is the wheel on obvious out? ( you can probably stack him with this)

why do you think villian will auto fold once hero hit his flush? is that the only hand villian puts hero on? doubt it. there is alot of money yet to be extracted.

Don't know about you, but i haven't played many hands where someon folded a 3 bet of approx 1/4 of their stack.

Re: $200 NL 6max flush draw and overs
 

[ QUOTE ]

how is the wheel on obvious out? ( you can probably stack him with this)

[/ QUOTE ]

because it is a one-card straight, and an Ace is always a likely holding in a raised pot.

Re: $200 NL 6max flush draw and overs
 

[ QUOTE ]
why do you think villian will auto fold once hero hit his flush? is that the only hand villian puts hero on? doubt it.

[/ QUOTE ]

With bet, raise, re raise, call on that board I would put villian on flush draw. I believe most people would.

[ QUOTE ]
Don't know about you, but i haven't played many hands where someon folded a 3 bet of approx 1/4 of their stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think you understand how small his fold equity has to be on this flop to make a push profitable given villians hand range.

Re: $200 NL 6max flush draw and overs
 

Some of you guys doing like saying All-In as much as me.

I'M ALL IN BABY

Re: $200 NL 6max flush draw and overs
 

[ QUOTE ]


With bet, raise, re raise, call on that board I would put villian on flush draw. I believe most people would.

[/ QUOTE ]

And a push by hero doesn't look like a flush draw? (who actually pushes over cards? which is the next likely hand that hero might hold after raising preflop)

[ QUOTE ]

I don't think you understand how small his fold equity has to be on this flop to make a push profitable given villians hand range.

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, this is very read dependent and i don't think you should jump to the conclusion about his folding% when you don't know what villains range of hand to 3 bet is with.
what do you put him on?

you know against a set villain is 68:32
against a straight villian is 60:40
against 2 pair villian is ahead 57:42.

imo those are the 3-betting hands that a avg opponent will put up. AVG. There would be practically no folding equity against those hands do you agree?

what would villian put hero on and not call with those hands?

When you guys say you'll fold instantly to a half pot bet when another diamond comes when you hold a set or straight, or when a 4 lands and you have a set every time is not being realistic.

Re: $200 NL 6max flush draw and overs
 

[ QUOTE ]
And a push by hero doesn't look like a flush draw? (who actually pushes over cards? which is the next likely hand that hero might hold after raising preflop)

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero didn't raise PF.



[ QUOTE ]
Again, this is very read dependent and i don't think you should jump to the conclusion about his folding% when you don't know what villains range of hand to 3 bet is with.
what do you put him on?

you know against a set villain is 68:32
against a straight villian is 60:40
against 2 pair villian is ahead 57:42.

[/ QUOTE ]

Two pair is incredibly unlikely. I would say villain's hand range is (in order of likelihood) set, overpair, straight, two suited high diamonds (K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]).

In my opinion set and overpair are a close 1 and 2 though.

[ QUOTE ]
There would be practically no folding equity against those hands do you agree?

[/ QUOTE ]

In my opinion there is little folding equity given any of villians hand based on the range I just layed out. That little % is enough for me to play a coinflip with him.

[ QUOTE ]
When you guys say you'll fold instantly to a half pot bet when another diamond comes when you hold a set or straight, or when a 4 lands and you have a set every time is not being realistic.

[/ QUOTE ]

Depending on the size of the pot and the depth of the stacks I may or not fold. If you are putting your money in with bottom set on a 2 3 4 5 board with 2 diamonds you are most likely losing money.

The problem is you are trying to play this hand in a vaccum. Taking flips like this make things a whole lot easier for you in the future when you have big hands versus thinking opponents. If you play like a cookie cutter you will continue to eat small cookies.

Re: $200 NL 6max flush draw and overs
 

This is a pretty easy push imo. You're ahead of his range and even if you're a coinflip, the game considerations are really important here. When opponents see you're pushing draws you get so much more action. This adds an image that you are fearless and players will be playing for their stack if they want to go against you as well. Third, playing with a big stack raises my winrate, this maybe personal though. All these reasons make it ok to take a coinflip, and as the previous posters have said, this is not one.

Re: $200 NL 6max flush draw and overs
 

"Two pair is incredibly unlikely. I would say villain's hand range is (in order of likelihood) set, overpair, straight, two suited high diamonds (K J )."

I agree with most of that, cept the overpair, first off, a over pair bigger than QQ would have reraised, and smalle overpair will not be 3 betting. I will almost discount this one by a large margin.


I think ppl push with 2 overcards and flush draw way too much, it becomes predictable to the point ppl can make a call with a wide range of hands.

There are better times to push, when you know the guy has a somewhat strong hand like top pair, where u'r push would have higher folding equity.

When you have a read that he has a set or or straight or very strong hand (as in this case), u'r better off not trying to push him off his hand but rather hit u'r outs and take his stack away later.

Re: $200 NL 6max flush draw and overs
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think ppl push with 2 overcards and flush draw way too much, it becomes predictable to the point ppl can make a call with a wide range of hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

People do call with a wide range hands because "he must be on the draw" when in fact they are usually the ones doing the drawing (trying to avoid more cards than the guy with the flush draw). This is like a pretty simple concept in games like Omaha that some people don't translate well into holdem.

Re: $200 NL 6max flush draw and overs
 

Villain's 3-bet probably means quite a bit of strength. If we assign him any pair, a straight or 2 over diamonds, hero is at best a coinflip against that range. I don't think a push is the best move on this flop. Who the hell 3-bets and then folds on the same street? I would call and try to catch on the turn, fold to a push otherwise.

Re: $200 NL 6max flush draw and overs
 

[ QUOTE ]
If we assign him any pair, a straight or 2 over diamonds, hero is at best a coinflip against that range

[/ QUOTE ]

This statement is ridiculously incorrect.

Re: $200 NL 6max flush draw and overs
 

I don't see any reason not to push... your hand rules very hard, folding equity is fun, and calling sucks because you can't disguise your hand at all or get value from it.

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: $200 NL 6max flush draw and overs
 

With a bunch of low cards, 2 pairs is probably unlikely like you have stated, and i do agree.

which only narrows his possible holdings down to set/straight/or as you have mentioned KJdiamonds.
as for the latter, i think its a really bad/werid way to play it...a 3 bet thats not a push with KJdiamonds, that would be a pretty horrible move if he did do that.

Again dome, can you please explain why you think villian can hold a overpair, i just don't see a 3 bet coming for that. and it can't be QQ and higher because of the preflop action (majority of the time)

also, note that your getting 3:1 odds! don't forget that, thats pretty damn good odds for 12 outs, u only really need about 2.9:1 I think its better to just take those odds.

Re: $200 NL 6max flush draw and overs
 

Pushing this type of hand just makes life so much easier in the future.