can you call this?
 

$55 Party Multi - Blinds 15/30

UTG folds, UTG+1 limps with KJo, 3 folds, 3 calls, SB completes, BB checks.

(Pot: 180) Flop: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Blinds check, UTG+1 bets 150, CO-1 pushes in 3030, folded back to UTG+1. (Note: None of the players who folded had more than 900 so CO-1 is only risking ~30% of his stack.)

770 to call, 1250 in pot (1.62:1 if you're wondering)

Can UTG+1 call this?

Thanks,
Che

Re: can you call this?
 

no way im calling an all in with that crap at 15/30 blinds

Re: can you call this?
 

The4thFilm-

[ QUOTE ]
no way im calling an all in with that crap at 15/30 blinds

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

BTW what range of hands do you put the opponent on?

Later,
Che

Re: can you call this?
 

I think it depends on your read on the player. If he is tricky he may be overbetting with trip 2's hoping a king calls. If he is fairly aggressive and I have seen him make moves like this already I would consider calling. For a weaker player, I would tend to think he had a king with a weak kicker, or maybe pocket jacks.

Re: can you call this?
 

If he wants to bet t3030 into a pot worth 330, let him have it and take his chips later. This early, the odds are too good some clown is hanging around with his A2s.

Re: can you call this?
 

A call here seems pretty inconceivable.

Re: can you call this?
 

Che,

Given that this is an unraised pot, I have to grit my teeth and fold what is probably the best hand.

I've seen K9o or worse push in this spot., but given that he is coming overtop of your pot sized bet, I can't call this.

The PF action did not include any raise so I have to allow for a 2 to be out there and this is not a good spot to risk this many chips, I don't think you have enough of an edge.

You are not PC'd and the pot odds don't scream for a call.

Often a weak player will push with a 2 beacause they don't know how much to raise your bet. Conversely a good player can push hoping to look like he doesn't want a call.

I work by the rule of thumb that Top Pair in an unraised pot is no good.

Too many pitfalls in this one.

Regards,
Woodguy

what does the villain have?
 

So far everyone has said fold with remen being the only one who would even consider a call in certain situations. Here are the arguments given:

[ QUOTE ]
no way im calling an all in with that crap at 15/30 blinds


[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
If he wants to bet t3030 into a pot worth 330, let him have it and take his chips later. This early, the odds are too good some clown is hanging around with his A2s.


[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
A call here seems pretty inconceivable.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Given that this is an unraised pot, I have to grit my teeth and fold what is probably the best hand....

You are not PC'd and the pot odds don't scream for a call....

I work by the rule of thumb that Top Pair in an unraised pot is no good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Granted, there was a little analysis in a couple of the posts, but you guys can do better.

You're going to fold? Fine. But why? What range of hands do you put the big stack on?

Later,
Che

Re: can you call this?
 

Just curious what was your stack size was? If that call would've put you all in, I think its a definite fold.

Early in the tournament with the villain completing in the SB, he can have almost anything going into the flop. I'd say there's a chance he has A2, but more likely he's got Kx or a mid PP and is trying to push you off the hand. I'd say fold, but keep a sharp eye on this guy for overaggressive play. JMO

Re: what does the villain have?
 

Che,

Are you just trying to prove most of us are weak-tight. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

After looking at it again, it could be the CO-1 limped with AA and paniced when the board paired and pushed.

I put the the CO-1 on the following: AA, x2,Kx. He may have an underpair, but I have a really hard time putting him on one with his push, as he is dominated by any K or any 2.

I'm discounting 22 and KK as I would expect a slow play, although with hyper aggressive opponents I sometimes overbet the nuts to induce a call from someone who suspects a bluff. KK would also probably raise PF as even the people who limp behind with AA seem to fear an A on the flop when holding KK.

It hard to put him on a hand as he has done exactly two things, limped along and pushed all in, with no real reads.

I'm not folding because I put him on a better hand, I'm folding because the pot odds do not warrant a call when I have no idea what CO-1 has, and I am only sitting with TPMK on a paired board.

With all the limpers I would rip my own liver out if I called and was shown 23o, so basically I'm folding out of fear of the unkown and crappy odds. (maybe I am weak-tight) [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: can you call this?
 

Are you talking about preflop or postflop? Oh, does not matter - I personally can't call either.

Dogmeat [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Re: can you call this?
 

Hi Che,

What could the guy have? He's not on a draw (no str8 or flush board) Therefore, he must be betting a fair hand. The problem is, UTG+1 is beating a lot of the hands that LP1 could play this way...(Kxs, 3-3 to Q-Q). He could have any number of hands with a "2", and he may very well bet them like that (I wouldn't).

I put the guy on T-T, J-J, Q-Q, KQ. I'm really starting to suspect KQ.

I think I'm gonna fold here, because if this guy is betting this way and does not have me beat, then I'll surely get another opportunity to take his chips when I feel better about my holding.

--Casey

Re: can you call this?
 

The chance that you're ahead is slim to none, and you're not even getting a good price on your money. You're looking for a J to win this. FOLD FOLD FOLD FOLD FOLD. No brainer.

Re: can you call this?
 

Pretty tough to put the villian on AK. I guess KQ would be in his range of hands. Any middle pair is also conceivable. Any smaller king is very likely. A duece is reasonable preflop, but sort of unlikely that he would shut that many people out if he had a duece and there were no draws on board. I'll give him credit for A2,K2,Q2s,23,24. I think this is generous.

I put him on any King with equal frequency, except I'll discount AK by 50% since most players would raise preflop after a bunch of limpers.
I'll also put him on any pair TT-33 with equal frequency, and I'll again discount JJ-AA by 50% since most players would raise those preflop vs. a bunch of limpers.
I'll throw in a few random bluffing hands, too.

Pair Hands
AA - 6 ways * .5 = 3 combos
KK - 1 way * .5 = .5 combos
QQ - 6 ways * .5 = 3 combos
JJ - 3 ways * 50% = 1.5 combos
TT-33 - 6 ways each = 6*8 = 48 combos

King Hands
AK = 12 ways * 50% = 6 combos
KQ = 12 combos
KJ = 9 combos
KT - K3 = 12 combos each = 12 * 8 = 72 combos

Duece Hands
A2 - 8 combos
K2 - 4 combos
Q2 - 8 combos
23 - 8 combos
24 - 8 combos


Let's say another 10 random combinations of bluffing hands.

# of combos of hands that we are losing to: 57.5 (i think that's generous given that we didn't discount the 2's at all). On about half of those hands, we have 2 outs twice. On most of the other ones, we will have 3 outs twice. Occasionally, we are drawing very thin to runner runner.
On the whole, we are probably 90% dogs when we are behind.

# of combos of hands in which we are winning: 143.5
We are, on average, 85% favorites to win when we are ahead.

Given this analysis, and the 1.6+:1 odds the pot is laying us, it seems like a pretty clear call.

Conclusion: calling all in early in a tourney against unknown online opponents is underrated.

Re: can you call this?
 

[ QUOTE ]
The chance that you're ahead is slim to none, and you're not even getting a good price on your money. You're looking for a J to win this. FOLD FOLD FOLD FOLD FOLD. No brainer.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, you put him on exactly the range of hands that beats you, huh?

Re: can you call this?
 

I totally can't agree that hands like K3 are just as likely as KQ, nor can I agree that K3 is twice as likely as AK.

You are postulating a player who plays K3, K4, etc, every single time, suited or unsuited. That in itself is rare. But then to give such a weak player credit for raising 50% of the time with AK is, I think, unwarranted.

I agree that the opponent would limp in with any pair, but after he makes a massive all-in raise, you have to discount his chances of holding hands like 33 somewhat! What your calculations assume is that he is equally likely to raise you all-in whether he holds KQ or 33, and I disagree with this.

Re: can you call this?
 

I put him on a range of hands that I felt would be consistant with his preflop and postflop actions. If you disagree with that range, adjust it...i've done all the hard work...play with the numbers. I'd be surprised if you could manipulate an unknown online player's range of hands to make it so that it is -EV to call.

[ QUOTE ]
But then to give such a weak player credit for raising 50% of the time with AK is, I think, unwarranted.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not stating that an individual player would raise AK in that spot 50% of the time, but that 50% of unknown players would raise preflop in that spot w/ AK. (That is probably understated, if anything). It doesn't really matter, though...go ahead and give full credit to AK. It doensn't change the #'s very much.

The point is that there really are only two hands that we are not beating that are consistant with his preflop and postflop play: KQ and KJ. We are tied w/ KJ and are losing to KQ.
Even in a narrow range of hands, there are many more that he could play in that mannor that we are killing.
How bout this range: KT, K9, K8, K7, K6s-K3s. 77-QQ.
Even against this narrow range, we are killing him.

Re: can you call this?
 

Okay - so this is early in a multi.

Do you have a read on the guy with 3000 chips? he seems way out in front, so were you at his table when he double up? or tripled up? has he been seeing a lot of flops and pushing people around?

Personally I'm not limping here with KJo from that early a position this early in a tournament.
But if you have a good read where he doesn't have the K or 2, I would call him.

Given no read, I would fold.

Re: can you call this?
 

ok, what do we know about CO+1?

If he has T3030 with the blinds at 15/30 then unless he got lucky to triple up with a monster early, he is a big gambler type. His overbet here supports that.

This type likes to trap with monsters, but bet big with medium hands and draws, and LOVES to bet big with a big stack to muscle out opponents. He cannot have a 2 or he’d slowplay to keep the blinds in and encourage CO+1 to bet again. He’d likely raise preflop with AK, would pop it preflop with 77-JJ and flatcall or minraise with AA-QQ.

His big overbet is hoping to use both the 22x board and its sheer size to make someone go away, so he has a hand that’s vulnerable, but he’s probably not a stupid maniac to do this with complete crap (there aren’t as many stupid maniacs at $50).

Range of hands: K9-K3, pocket pair 33-77. You are ahead of his most likely range of hands. But also possible are AA, weak 2’s, better Ks, medium A’s. Best guess of his hand is 66.

So you’re likely ahead but I don’t know if I trust my read enough to commit my stack. Especially since this guy will be risking lots of chips again in the near future and is easy to trap. So if I can find my balls, I call. Otherwise my weak-tight ass waits to trap him.

--Greg

Re: can you call this?
 

[ QUOTE ]
my weak-tight ass waits to trap him

[/ QUOTE ]

SEXXXXY!!! [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Re: can you call this?
 

you have little tiny cojones, I HAVE BIG GIANT COJONES!!

Re: can you call this?
 

[ QUOTE ]
you have little tiny cojones, I HAVE BIG GIANT COJONES!!

[/ QUOTE ]

And they'll serve you well, Mike.... IN PRISON!!

Re: can you call this?
 

Well, here is my answer in short - "Who the hell is CO-1??"

Here is my answer in long - I have no idea who this guy is. He has more than tripple what he started with so he was obviously involved in at least a few big hands. How has be been playing? How have you been playing? This is really one of those situations where you have to play the man and not the cards. I have seen some people pull this play with KTs, QQ, JJ, K9o (imagine that) just as often as I have seen people pull this play holding AA,KK,AK or KQ. I have also seen players try this holding jack diddly [censored]. You dominate the first 4 and the second 4 dominate you - you only split once every 9 times against a completely unknown player. So, I return to my initial answer "Who the hell is CO-1???!!!"

However, let's look at it this way. You just bet 5/6 the pot into 5 other players first in so if I were CO-1 I would have to assume that you were holding AT LEAST a K with a reasonable kicker. You limped first in so I would put you on KQs if you were a passive player, or KJ or possibly KTs if you were a loose player (which you are - KJo is a crappy hand to play from EP). Therefore, your hand is COMPLETELY apparent. If I were CO-1, I would go all-in with any two cards if I felt that there was a reasonable chance that you would fold. If not, I would only go all-in w/ AK,KQ or AA and would wait till later to raise with KK or A2s. Note that AA and KK are unlikely holdings since he probably would have raised pre-flop with those. In conclusion, unless you are easy to push off a hand, he is holding KQ,KJ or AK and the best you could hope for is a split. This all assumes that he is not an idiot or a maniac.

Re: can you call this?
 

Here is the problem with this analysis as well as some of the others - you're not putting yourself into HIS shoes (ie CO-1). Think about it, hero limped first in and then bet opened for almost a pot-sized bet on the flop. CO-1 has to put him on something, and it won't be K7 or some junk like that unless he had a damn good reason to think that hero would limp with that. But hey, some people do - and if I were CO-1 and I KNEW that hero tended to do that, I would go all-in with hands as weak as KJ and even K9o if I felt that there was any chance that hero would call with something like K7.

Re: can you call this?
 

With lots of people in the hand at relatively low blinds, it looks like you are in a tournament with a lot of players trying to play a lot of hands early in hopes of grabbing an early advantage. Including CO-1, who has already had some luck doing so, and is likely to have something like an A2 suited here. I assume this is an Internet tournament, which could easily explain his going all in versus a more rational bet--its just easier to do (heck, it even feels good to slide that button all the way over with your mouse!). Unless you are ready to go to bed early and want to get out of the tournament, I would recommend folding. The number of ways you lose far outnumbers the number of ways you might win.

Re: can you call this?
 

I disagree. It's a loose call.

--Casey

Re: can you call this?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I have seen some people pull this play with KTs, QQ, JJ, K9o (imagine that) just as often as I have seen people pull this play holding AA,KK,AK or KQ. I have also seen players try this holding jack diddly [censored]. You dominate the first 4 and the second 4 dominate you - you only split once every 9 times against a completely unknown player.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is flawed...even with this very, very narrow range of hands calling is in order.

K9/KT - 8 ways each - 16 combos
QQ - 6 ways
JJ - 3 ways

25 combos

AA - 6 ways
KK - 1 way
AK - 8 ways
KQ - 8 ways

total = 23 combos

This is about a narrow a range as I can imagine (and it doesn't even consider the fact that a majority of players would never play AA/KK/AK that way whereas a majority of players would play KJ-K7 and TT-66 that way.

oh, and he's getting 1.6:1.


How on earth do any of you guys get large stacks?

Re: can you call this?
 

the nuts fool, we flop the nuts. if your not even good enough to flop the nuts like 3 times in the first hour then you need to stop giving out so much advice.

Re: can you call this?
 

[ QUOTE ]
the nuts fool, we flop the nuts. if your not even good enough to flop the nuts like 3 times in the first hour then you need to stop giving out so much advice.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know you you get a large stack...I read your $57k trip report.....

side note:
Shana Hiatt give me a "large stack"

Re: can you call this?
 

clearly, i dont flop the nuts, i suck out, but thats only because your always freaking telling me to call. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: can you call this?
 

[ QUOTE ]
clearly, i dont flop the nuts, i suck out, but thats only because your always freaking telling me to call. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

cards happen

Re: can you call this?
 

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
now thats well done

Re: can you call this?
 

I haven't read the replies yet, but my gut instinct is to fold.

However, the more I think about it, I'm trying to put him on a hand that beats you. AK, AA, and KK are all right out unless you have a read that suggests he might play a huge hand that way. Most people would want to milk trips, so I doubt he has a two. The only hand that I can honestly put him on that beats you is KQ; hands that you beat KJ (split), KT-K9, K8s - K3s, any pocket pair lesls than QQ. So since I've been having trouble building a stack in these tourneys I probably call.

Results?

Re: can you call this?
 

Che,

Interesting problem, and some well-thought-out replies.

Here's my take, for what it's worth.

Even I would be hesitant to call here, and you know what that takes. I think that KJ has a good chance of being ahead here, but with no folding equity and considering what kind of trouble you're buying for yourself if you're behind, well, I'd pass this call, under the banner of "Waiting for a Better Opportunity."

I'd be most interested in how the live, big-money pro types would respond to this. I have a feeling that (like the suited J8 in the BB thread of a few months ago) their opinion might well range more towards "it's way too weak-tight not to call here."

I thought the problem was interesting because my intial reaction was fold, fold, fold, fold, fold. But the more I thought about ranges of hands that would make the all-in bet, the better KJ looked. I still advocate folding, but not as strongly, and I would certainly listen attentively to well-reasoned counter-advice.

Doug

Re: can you call this?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Here is the problem with this analysis as well as some of the others - you're not putting yourself into HIS shoes (ie CO-1).

[/ QUOTE ]

That’s actually an excellent point.

If I’m CO-1, and I see an early limper, then a flop of 22K, then he raises into a field of 4, then what could hero have? If he had a 2x or KK he’d slowplay. AK would raise preflop. Middle pair like 99 might do it, but that’s a bit risky out of position into a big field. I’d put him solidly on KQ-K7s or so, with outside chance at AA or JJ-66 or so.

And with that holding, there is no way he should be able to call a large raise. So putting lots of pressure on should get a fold. This makes me want to find my balls and call even more.

You know, the most interesting thing of all about this post is that my initial reaction was ‘clear fold’, and now after thinking this thru, I’ve moved to ‘fairly clear call, barring a tricky player’ with the logic I see on this.

--Greg

Re: can you call this?
 

I like this math much better than the original calculations!

Re: can you call this?
 

I can't really think of a hand where it's right for the guy to push. On this kind of flop, you're either way ahead or way behind. About the only reasonable hand I can think of, other than a stone bluff, is if you have a bad K and you're hoping that if the other guy has a better K, you can get him to lay it down.

That's a pretty risky play though!!

My point is, when you see a guy make a bizarre play like this, it's hard to put him on a hand the way you would put a reasonable player on a hand. It's even harder to bring second-level thinking into the equation and start drawing conclusions about what he thinks you have!

I think all you can do is put him on a fairly wide range of hands like Soss did and work from there. You can't really play Sherlock Holmes with an opponent who is capable of this kind of bet.

possibly overlooked fact
 

A pot-sized raise for CO-1 would have been 630.

I'm the biggest stack he's up against and a call of a pot-sized raise would leave me with 290. Others would have even less after calling the 630, and some would be all-in.

Results to come...

Re: can you call this?
 

[ QUOTE ]

If he had a 2x or KK he’d slowplay. AK would raise preflop.


[/ QUOTE ]

Hey Greg,

I disagree that x2 would always slowplay.
Many players play flopped trips very fast.
I think Doyle Brunson even recommends it in Super System, especially with a weak kicker.

This guy has 100BB's in his stack and he has tripled up early, I just can't bring myself to discount any x2 hand as he may limp with any two seeing as its 1% of his stack, I don't even discount 72o. (yes people accuse me of seeing monsters under the bed [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img])

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: can you call this?
 

2 comments about your reply -

First, I really have no idea what you mean by "K9/KT - 8 ways each - 16 combos" or really any part of your mathematical analysis. Perhaps you could explain it to me?

Second, I don't think you really read my whole post. I was simply giving some possibilities that a typical tight, aggressive player would be holding assuming that the original poster was also a T/A player. However, the real "crux" of my post was that it's impossible to tell without knowing the player and knowing what the other player knows about the original poster. Like I said, his hand is apparent assuming he is a reasonable player and wouldn't play anything worse than KJo from EP (you may feel like anything as bad as K7s or so is reasonable, but I don't). If the poster has been getting pushed off of many hands that MAY have been the best hand, then CO-1 could just bluff at this with any two - then it's a very easy call. However, if CO-1 has built up his large stack by playing some good hands very well, then it's an easy fold - especially if hero has gone to a showdown with a questionable kicker a few times before. If that was the case and I were CO-1 with something like KQs, then I would definately go all-in and hope that hero would call with a K and a worse kicker.