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-   -   Shameful stats post (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=394687)

Mister Z 12-09-2005 02:40 AM

Shameful stats post
 
Anybody seeing anything jump out at them that might cause me problems in the SH games? I've decided to dive back into playing the 1/2 6max lately, after previously being a winner in it and other full-ring games, and have hit a soul-sucking downswing that makes me want to puke after every session. I'll try to post more hands I guess, but just hoping maybe something in these stats points to a bigger problem. I think my blind defense and stealing may need some work, but it seems to me that blind stealing isn't really blind stealing at the 1/2's because nobody folds ever. Argh. Anyway, I know it's a small sample but I think most stats (rather than results) are pretty consistent after a few K hands...

http://img216.imageshack.us/img216/2999/stats11uw.jpg
http://img216.imageshack.us/img216/581/stats25ks.jpg

http://img216.imageshack.us/img216/5641/stats39ve.jpg

http://img216.imageshack.us/img216/2792/stats41om.jpg

waffle 12-09-2005 02:42 AM

Re: Shameful stats post
 
pf numbers look good, except you might want to fold the sb more to steal. one pair won = 38%, WtSD = 29%, W$SD = 49%, you're running bad, next. you should probably go to showdown more often in the long run. from these stats i guess you're just not making a lot of good hands and you've been making the right decisions. hard to say, post hands instead.

also a 5k hands stat post is pretty worthless and just clogs up the forum.

imported_leader 12-09-2005 03:08 AM

Re: Shameful stats post
 
Basically you’re weak-tight and running bad. That's a sucky combo. You need to raise more, period. You're steal % isn't terrible so you'll missing out on other raises. You should be isolating loose limpers a ton at this limit. You're getting killing in the blinds and it has less to do with running bad then that you're playing bad. You're too tight and you're way to passive. Granted that there could be sample size issues here, but if those numbers are close to reality you're not raising near enough from the BB or the SB. Mine are 10% in the BB and 20 in the SB. You're also not defending you're BB enough.

On to post flop, You need to see more showdowns. Bare minimum 32%. Folded to river bet is too high IMO. You need to pay off more. You're also checking too much after a PFR, IMO.

Seeing as how you just got you clock cleaned in 4K. I'd recommend a few day off. During that time think about you're game and situations you need to play differently to come out of this funk. Many of the things I've mentioned are going to be nearly impossible for you to change if you're thinking about how much money you're losing or you're having thoughts like "I can't win," "He always has me beat," and "I hate this game." So take some time off until you can come back to the game with a fresh <u>positive</u> perspective that will allow you to do what you need to do to win.

Mister Z 12-09-2005 03:11 AM

Re: Shameful stats post
 
[ QUOTE ]

also a 5k hands stat post is pretty worthless and just clogs up the forum.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I know but I just wanted to make sure there wasn't anything crazy going on with my play before I went on much further since I've never spent any time in the SH forums. This freaking streak is getting to my head.

imported_leader 12-09-2005 03:12 AM

Re: Shameful stats post
 
[ QUOTE ]
also a 5k hands stat post is pretty worthless and just clogs up the forum.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would agree if he hadn't lost 300BB in 5K. Do you expect wait for 30K? I doubt he'll make it at this pace. Granted he's not a long term 6 BB/100 loser but still 300 in 5K is not just variance 99% of the time.

waffle 12-09-2005 03:13 AM

Re: Shameful stats post
 
oh, wow. i didn't look that closely and i thought he was playing 3/6 and only lost 100BB. you're right, i don't blame you for posting.. listen to leader, his advice is much better than mine

imported_leader 12-09-2005 03:16 AM

Re: Shameful stats post
 
Some stats from very good players Compare yours it may help you. They are for higher limits though. http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/favlin...amp;postmarker=

Mister Z 12-09-2005 11:04 AM

Re: Shameful stats post
 
Thanks Leader. I'm surprised my raised out of the blinds is so much lower than yours. That's definitely something I need to work on. Overall, I think these stats are a combo of small sample size, a rough run (I've run into SO many big hands with my better hands), and a lot of weak-tight (gasp) play. I'm not sure if I tightened up during this or if I've just been getting slightly cold-decked, but my VPIP used to be at 28% before this. Anyway, thanks again. I'm going to see if I can dig up any post-worthy hands.

TomBrooks 12-09-2005 11:16 AM

Re: Shameful stats post
 
[ QUOTE ]
Anybody seeing anything jump out at them that might cause me problems in the SH games?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes. To wit and right off the bat: the title of this thread. Getting down on yourself reinforces negative expectations and tends to cause future results to meet them.

TomBrooks 12-09-2005 11:35 AM

Re: Shameful stats post
 
[ QUOTE ]
Folded to river bet is too high IMO. You need to pay off more.

[/ QUOTE ]
What is the expected appropriate range for that?

raze 12-09-2005 11:53 AM

Re: Shameful stats post
 
Hey man, my $3/6 stats and sample size are identical to yours, except my AF is like 6/5/2, and my WtSD/W$SD is like 35/60, I am running at 2.2BB/100. I think you're definitely getting cold cards..

sidenote - you got quads 4x and LOST money overall. I guess this means you folded early but you would have ended up w quads?? If so, how did this happen *four times* ? I have 3 quads and they give me +30BB. Also you folded a lot of two pair, trips &amp; flush on the river... seems too tight to me. I'm not at home but I will check my personal figures on that and see if mine are similar

imported_stealthcow 12-09-2005 12:15 PM

Re: Shameful stats post
 
i recommend that you videotape yourself playing and then watch the video over again. start videotaping after a bad beat, or you dont feeel like you're playing well, or just weird hands keep coming up. then from there you can either post the video or watch it over, see what you didt hat you would do differently and also isolate a few hands that you were completely lost with and post them here. imo there is a big discrepancy between the hands people decide to post from their session and hands they should post.


i think the worst advice you can hear is that you should go from a 21/14 to a 27/20. thats ridiculous imo. there are types of hands/ groups of hands and situations that you just need to learn how to play, and then adding those hands preflop will be the next step. there are some very good 6max players whose stats are ~23/19 so take it one step at a time.

one last thing on preflop play: your postflop play should dictate how you play preflop, not the other way around.

do you know how to iso raise ?
do you know how to play suited 1 gapper type hands after 1 or 2 limpers on the button?
are you comfortable defending your bb against a tag with a hand like 87s?
are you okay with stealing with K5o?
are you good at getting to showdown against unpredictable opponents?

good luck

stealthcow-

Mister Z 12-09-2005 01:53 PM

Re: Shameful stats post
 

do you know how to iso raise ?


I do this quite a bit against the right player. It seems really tough for me at the 1/2 tables though because they are SO loose. Pots end up 3-4 handed even after raising a loose EP limper most of the time... which I guess adds value to the pot, but then you're stuck with a hand like KT against 2 or more opponets which isn't exactly profitable.

do you know how to play suited 1 gapper type hands after 1 or 2 limpers on the button?

I would call PF w/ a hand like T8s and might peel the flop if it doesn't look too scary and I have at least a BD draw or two. Bad? I think I would play them somewhat similar to the way I would play them in full-ring. That might be a leak of mine.

are you comfortable defending your bb against a tag with a hand like 87s?

I'll defend w/ 87s. If I hit the flop I'll probably C/R the flop and lead the turn. I mean, I have no formula but that's a line I would use off the top of my head.

are you okay with stealing with K5o?

Honestly, not really. That seems a little low to me. I usually steal as low as A6, K9... maybe K8, T9s, sometimes 87s, small PP's, etc. Actually it really depends on the blinds. At 1/2, I feel like my fold equity is way low so I raise my stealing standards a bit.

are you good at getting to showdown against unpredictable opponents?

This I think is a leak of mine. With a SD worthy hand I'll usually bet the flop and turn and check the river through if I'm in position. OOP causes all kinds of problems for me.

I'm not trying to defend myself here or anything. I'm just thinking aloud here to try to figure out what my issues are at this game. Thanks for the suggestions.

12-09-2005 01:58 PM

Re: Shameful stats post
 
You are running bad. Look at one pair and two pair hands. They should be 43/57 or something. I also lost a lot when I ran 38/49.

Mister Z 12-09-2005 02:02 PM

Re: Shameful stats post
 
[ QUOTE ]
Getting down on yourself reinforces negative expectations and tends to cause future results to meet them.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right and I'm definitely guilty of that to some degree. I didn't mean the title of the post quite as it sounded though.

Mister Z 12-09-2005 02:05 PM

Re: Shameful stats post
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Folded to river bet is too high IMO. You need to pay off more.

[/ QUOTE ]
What is the expected appropriate range for that?

[/ QUOTE ]

From the other stats I've looked at now I think it should be somewhere in the mid-30's. I don't know how or why I'm folding 50% of the time at the river.

imported_stealthcow 12-09-2005 02:31 PM

Re: Shameful stats post
 
[ QUOTE ]

do you know how to iso raise ?


I do this quite a bit against the right player. It seems really tough for me at the 1/2 tables though because they are SO loose. Pots end up 3-4 handed even after raising a loose EP limper most of the time... which I guess adds value to the pot, but then you're stuck with a hand like KT against 2 or more opponets which isn't exactly profitable.


[/ QUOTE ]

iso raise more on the btn, and add a lot more value to iso raising with suited cards. limp small pp's on the btn or if the game is passive preflop but pay off postfop, you can limp behind an utg limper with any pp. hands like KTo are profitable 3 way when players are defending too loose. trust me.

[ QUOTE ]

do you know how to play suited 1 gapper type hands after 1 or 2 limpers on the button?

I would call PF w/ a hand like T8s and might peel the flop if it doesn't look too scary and I have at least a BD draw or two. Bad? I think I would play them somewhat similar to the way I would play them in full-ring. That might be a leak of mine.


[/ QUOTE ]

i'll keep this short, but given 2-3 limps, and the game isn't aggressive preflop, on teh btn i'm limping Axs, K8s+ (maybe more but this doesn't happen much at higher limits), 46s+ KTo, T9o and i'm raising 78s+ J9s+ KQo+ ATo+ 88+(pp's depend).


[ QUOTE ]

are you comfortable defending your bb against a tag with a hand like 87s?

I'll defend w/ 87s. If I hit the flop I'll probably C/R the flop and lead the turn. I mean, I have no formula but that's a line I would use off the top of my head.


[/ QUOTE ]

thats good. 87s isn't a good hand to show. in general esp with the high rake at 1/2sh, defending a lot isn't as big a deal as it is at higher limits where a) the rake is lower in proportion to the bets b) players steal a lot more and are more aggressive too c) its also folded to the btn or co more often, so steal situatison occur more.

[ QUOTE ]

are you okay with stealing with K5o?

Honestly, not really. That seems a little low to me. I usually steal as low as A6, K9... maybe K8, T9s, sometimes 87s, small PP's, etc. Actually it really depends on the blinds. At 1/2, I feel like my fold equity is way low so I raise my stealing standards a bit.


[/ QUOTE ]

agaisnt tags, or just weak tight players in general, attack them. it sounds like you are a bit discouraged. most of the good lpayers at 1/2 sh are in teh same boat as you, and you need to open up your game a bit. if i were to play 1/2sh right now, i would probably try and steal (when possible) against tight blinds with ~50% of my hands. i just do not expect that tight 1/2 sh players are good at defending or know how to adjust to someone who steals a lot but doesn't appear to be that aggro based on their vpip/pfr.

its really good that your stealing standards depend on the blinds. but if you can play better postflop then your opponent, you should be willing to raise with hands that aren't neccesarily that much better then your opponents. ie, if the bb is a 40/15 who plyas well postflop, steal less. if he's a 20/15, steal more becuase he's going to fold preflop and on teh flop way too much. and if he's a 90/10 steal way more because he's callign with everything, and your A2o has too much value against the hands he's calling with.

[ QUOTE ]

are you good at getting to showdown against unpredictable opponents?

This I think is a leak of mine. With a SD worthy hand I'll usually bet the flop and turn and check the river through if I'm in position. OOP causes all kinds of problems for me.


[/ QUOTE ]

this is the hardest one. but say a "maniac" raises on teh btn and his stats are 45/35, and you've seen that he's aggressive postflop. you have A2o. you call.

flop A K 4. you check he bets you raise he 3 bets. whats your line now? what do you do if instead of A2o you have KTo? what if you have A4 ?

you are on btn and you raise with A6o. same villian is now the bb, he calls. flop 4 2 2. he check raises flop- whats your play?

what if hte flop was A 4 4 and he check raises your flop bet?

stealthcow-

ps. download some videos at pokeravi.com they are all higher stakes, but you should bea ble to learn from watching them

imported_leader 12-09-2005 02:59 PM

Re: Shameful stats post
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Folded to river bet is too high IMO. You need to pay off more.

[/ QUOTE ]
What is the expected appropriate range for that?

[/ QUOTE ]

Something in the 30's. Lower-mid 30's as you move up, IMO.

Mister Z 12-09-2005 03:26 PM

Re: Shameful stats post
 
[ QUOTE ]
this is the hardest one. but say a "maniac" raises on teh btn and his stats are 45/35, and you've seen that he's aggressive postflop. you have A2o. you call.

flop A K 4. you check he bets you raise he 3 bets. whats your line now?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd probably call the 3-bet and donk the turn. Calling down to further aggression.

[ QUOTE ]
what do you do if instead of A2o you have KTo? what if you have A4 ?

[/ QUOTE ]

With KTo I'm probably leading the flop and calling down if raised. A4 I think I'm C/R'ing the turn after maybe leading the flop since he's a maniac and will probably raise with anything and follow through on the turn.

[ QUOTE ]
you are on btn and you raise with A6o. same villian is now the bb, he calls. flop 4 2 2. he check raises flop- whats your play?

[/ QUOTE ]

depends on how maniacal he is I guess. I think we can depend on him betting the turn and the river on us and I don't know if we want to pay that much with ace-high. I suppose we could 3-bet, bet the turn, and take the free SD on the river?

[ QUOTE ]
what if hte flop was A 4 4 and he check raises your flop bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm calling and popping him with a turn raise here.

Thanks for the suggestions/questions!

raze 12-09-2005 05:20 PM

Re: Shameful stats post
 
[ QUOTE ]
You are running bad. Look at one pair and two pair hands. They should be 43/57 or something. I also lost a lot when I ran 38/49.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you talking about W$SD ?


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