Bubble hand from Stars 36+3 Sat
 

There is one 140 stack that will be all in with antes in 3 hands, and one 600 stack that will be all in before me. Do I take the gamble and call, or do I hope one of the two other shorties or some idiot mid stack busts before?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t800 (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

UTG+1 (t5470)
MP1 (t2455)
MP2 (t18704)
CO (t19975)
Hero (t765)
SB (t6330)
BB (t16420)
UTG (t6255)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Re: Bubble hand from Stars 36+3 Sat
 

need a little more details for how many yseats/people left.

Re: Bubble hand from Stars 36+3 Sat
 

23 people left, 22 seats. 23rd gets about $50.

Re: Bubble hand from Stars 36+3 Sat
 

yea i'm folding

Re: Bubble hand from Stars 36+3 Sat
 

Boy. Even if it's folded to you I think I muck this. You're going to get at least one and probably two spite calls here. Yeah, you're ahead, but not by much against two random hands.

Part of it would also depend on whether the other table is colluding to keep shorties alive, or if your table will do so for your benefit. (I think we've all seen tall stacks folding their blinds to shorty's push, just to be nice.)

Yuck.

Re: Bubble hand from Stars 36+3 Sat
 

The other table with the shorties seems very happy to bust shorties. Big stacks call the BB every hand to check it down. No colluding.

More info. Folded to me, SB has 1000 after posting so if I call it might be HU against BB.

Re: Bubble hand from Stars 36+3 Sat
 

you're 65/35 vs a random hand.


two guysy will have to be all in before your are forced..

you're better than 65% to win without having to play another hand. And if by chancee they make it around, you can always win your all-in.

Re: Bubble hand from Stars 36+3 Sat
 

[ QUOTE ]
The other table with the shorties seems very happy to bust shorties. Big stacks call the BB every hand to check it down. No colluding.

More info. Folded to me, SB has 1000 after posting so if I call it might be HU against BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm confused. In the original post, SB had ~6,000. If he's at 1000, this gets a bit easier. Push...er...call. If one shorty gets lucky, and the other actually hits a hand, you are next one out.

Re: Bubble hand from Stars 36+3 Sat
 

Woops disregard this. For some reason I remember SB being very short, was wrong. So SB will obviously call and it will be a 3 way pot.

Re: Bubble hand from Stars 36+3 Sat
 

You did the hard work, you survived the blinds. You now have 5 hands that you can wait. If there are at least 2 shorties on the other tables that people seem to be willing to bust out, you're more likely to win by waiting than win by calling all in. You indicated that this is the case. Fold.

Re: Bubble hand from Stars 36+3 Sat
 

i don't think SB's stack really matters.. it's a fold either way.

Re: Bubble hand from Stars 36+3 Sat
 

Yah, you're under 50% three handed, and you gotta think one of the shorties will bust. And even if they don't you could always win your big blind when it comes around.

In short, I think the chances of one of the other shorties busting + the chances of you winning a hand is greater than 48%, so this is a fold.

Re: Bubble hand from Stars 36+3 Sat
 

Ok. Everyone seems to think this is a fold. I folded, and an idiot with about 1800 went all in from MP at another table only to get 3-4 calls from huge stacks. He had 88 or something, and busted.

Just felt that I might have regretted this hand if not, but it looks like I did the right thing.

Re: Bubble hand from Stars 36+3 Sat
 

I agree - definitely folding AK here. Dare I ask the question, do you also fold AA here?

Re: Bubble hand from Stars 36+3 Sat
 

yea, i'm not playing anything here...

vs two random hands you're 70% w/ AA.

the two short stacks will both have to go against two random hands too.. so they each have 33% chance to survive... So even if there was just one short stack between you and the seat, i think it's still a fold (though a close one) w/ two to go before you do, i think it's a clear fold any 2.

Re: Bubble hand from Stars 36+3 Sat
 

Pokerstove says AA is about 70% against two random hands, so I think AA might be a fold as well. Considering the two shorties who will probably be all in with a random hand in multiway pots. Also add the chance that some idiot will go all in. Guess folding AK here wasn't even close then.

Re: Bubble hand from Stars 36+3 Sat
 

Yea AA is a fold here too. You will get the ticket if you just check/fold.

Btw, nice avatar Melchiades. When I first saw it I was like "Didn't know he was a nature boy" and then the giraffe popped up and I started laugh. Nice one

Re: Bubble hand from Stars 36+3 Sat
 

I whirlwind slam my aces and bust out on the bubble like a donk.

Im in it to win it!

Re: Bubble hand from Stars 36+3 Sat
 

You know you dont have to win the satellite to get a ticket do you?