Queens are a bust!
 

I believe more and more that QQ is pretty much a bust unless you flop a set. Consider this hand:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) converter

saw flop|<font color="C00000">saw showdown</font>

MP1 ($$188.70)
MP2 ($$26.40)
MP3 ($$199)
CO ($$403.40)
<font color="C00000">Hero ($$407.20)</font>
SB ($$191)
<font color="C00000">BB ($$476.75)</font>
UTG ($$400)
UTG+1 ($$151.80)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $4, <font color="666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to $18</font>, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $14, UTG+1 calls $14.

Flop: ($56) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 bets $4</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to $40</font>, BB calls $40, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 raises to $76</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to $389.2</font>, <font color="CC3333">BB raises to $458.75</font>, UTG+1 folds.

Turn: ($979.95) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>

River: ($979.95) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: $979.95
<font color="green">Main Pot: $910.40, between Hero and BB.</font>
<font color="green">Pot 2: $69.55, between Hero and BB.</font>

Re: Queens are a bust!
 

there are only three hands i can put the villian on in this scenario. and to really make a read i would need a little more info both on his style and your table image.
the three hands are 6-7 clubs AJ and JJ.
with no read on the other player or your table image i would have to go w/6-7 clubs or JJ as most decent players at that level aren't calling raises w/ AJ.
JJ certainly calls and depending on the player 6-7 clubs is a likely holding. a lot of players (including myself) will call moderate raises with these types of hands specifically for these situations.
this is a tough spot for QQ because the board is so draw heavy its hard to tell if your ahead, behind or even money.
with this board its really up to you to make a read on the players and go with it. but remember that then only hand your really ahead of is AJ or a non paired flush draw. your even money w/the 6-7 clubs and way behind the JJ so you got to know your players.
how would the big stack, play each of the possible hands? and what do the other players think of you? have you been pushing just top pair or playing loose aggressive or have you been playing tight?
with this hand and this board you won't get too much helpful info without filling us in on the table dynamics.
look forward to hearing more about this hand.

Re: Queens are a bust!
 

i gotta say, this is one of the most commonly misplayed situations in nl poker...instantly moving all in with an overpair in situations like this.

look at how much money you risked for what what in the pot with the 380odd dollar raise on the flop. just because you CAN go all in at any point in time in NL doesn't mean you SHOULD...

too much for too little. only a better hand will call that.

-Barron

Re: Queens are a bust!
 

ok so i feel a little silly.
he could also have a lower set other the JJ.
either way same difference.

Re: Queens are a bust!
 

Great analysis, thanks. I am new to this game and really trying to pick up on the subtleties. I think I played this miserably. First, it was my fourth hand at the table so I had no read on anyone and they had no read on me (first mistake).

The thing about queens, and the reason I titled my post as I did, was because with the flop as such I do not see anyone who called my pre-flop raise calling my push unless they are way ahead of me or a very loose with the 67c.

Standard logic would say that I got called by a big pair, maybe a medium or smallish pair if the table is loose or maybe AK, AQ or AJ (though the latter two are less likely). AK is not calling a re-raise in that situation so that leaves only easy folds and hands that are way ahead. So, I lost a bundle to .... 55!

Re: Queens are a bust!
 

[ QUOTE ]
Great analysis, thanks. I am new to this game and really trying to pick up on the subtleties.

[/ QUOTE ]

subtleties like if you're new to the game, start LOWER than $400 buy in NL??? or do you mean subtleties like playing on the easier to beat site Party rather than the tougher site, Pokerstars??

[ QUOTE ]
I think I played this miserably. First, it was my fourth hand at the table so I had no read on anyone and they had no read on me (first mistake).

[/ QUOTE ]

actually it was like your second mistake if you count sitting in the game.

[ QUOTE ]

The thing about queens, and the reason I titled my post as I did, was because with the flop as such I do not see anyone who called my pre-flop raise calling my push unless they are way ahead of me or a very loose with the 67c.


[/ QUOTE ]

uh huh.

[ QUOTE ]


Standard logic would say that I got called by a big pair, maybe a medium or smallish pair if the table is loose or maybe AK, AQ or AJ (though the latter two are less likely). AK is not calling a re-raise in that situation so that leaves only easy folds and hands that are way ahead. So, I lost a bundle to .... 55!

[/ QUOTE ]

SHOCKER, he had 55?!?!? no WAY!!!!

way man...betting $4 into a $54 pot and then reraising an obviously good hand to $76...puhlease budddddy.

-Barron

Re: Queens are a bust!
 

Decipher,

You shouldn't hold back, if you are feeling something, let us know it, let it out. Actually, great post, keep em coming. I need the honesty. That said ...

Best way to learn is by doing. I do not understand the logic of playing at Party or some other lousy game to get good.

Everyone says play a game that is easy to beat to get better. I think the logic is just plain flawed. Since this is a dynamic game, playing at an easy table teaches you to beat bad players and it reinforces your bad habits. People are easily fooled and fold easily. I know how to beat those players already. All I do is remain sucky and win small dough at those tables. Ok, I lose a little now at slightly better, bigger tables, but I think in the long run I will be able to win a lot more by playing with them.

So what happens if you "train" at Party? Six months later after you build up a whopping bank roll, you move to PS $2/$4 make all the mistakes I am making now, lose the bankroll and find out you suck.

I can afford to lose some money to train myself, that's what I am doing.

Peace

Re: Queens are a bust!
 

well in that case, you are kinda like astroglide...he purposely lost a "good amount" after jumping right into middle limit poker.

it'll cost you a bunch to learn...just know that.

with that said, whether you have QQ, KK, AA, or whatever here makes no difference...the most common large pot losses come from overpair vs. set...a set is a MONSTER hidden hand. once you realize how people see these hands and how they play them, they lose some value IN OPPONENTS HANDS, and GAIN value in YOUR hands.

against the player you describe i can call the flop $36 raise to $76 and fold on the turn to a bet...why? because i KNOW he has a set. not because you told me but because he bets out small to GET YOU TO RAISE, so he can reraise...if he had a pair of jacks hed bet out the pot right out, check and call, or check and raise most likely just betting right out. i'd call knowing i was behind because he's got another 300 behind and WILL go broke if i hit a queen and he's letting me do it cheaply...stupid players. when will they learn? hopefully never.

unlike you...you'll learn by doing, just like ML4L just told me that i have to learn turn folds etc by "making the mistake 100 times...it sinks in"

same goes for you. once you can see how players like this play sets you'll know what they have and can play perfectly laying down big hands and collecting big pots when they play poorly...

sometimes, passive play with a "draw" is best b/c the opponent with a monster will let you draw to your better monster cheap b/c he/she doesn't want to lose you...thats usually a mistake unless the circumstances warrant it.

-Barron

Re: Queens are a bust!
 

Barron,

Thanks, again, great comments. Keep em coming, guys like you make this post great to read and even greater to post to.

Now, I will make an observation. Spending money at a big table to learn is a positive EV play. Playing at Party is not because you can't expect to ever make real money. How do you know Doyle Brunson isn't sitting across from you at PP $200? Because why on earth would he when he can play at UB 25/50 and make 10K?

Poker players always think in terms of positive EV, not results, and I tell you that playing at the biggest table you can afford is positive EV ... if some conditions are met. This is where it gets interesting:

1. You have to be capable of learning from your mistakes. When I lose a big pot I *assume* I played it poorly and try to figure out what happened. The only exceptions to this are when I get it all in on the flop when I am way ahead and catch a bad car (which has happened to me oh so many times).

2. You have to believe you are going to get better while assuming in the short run you are going to lose. You cannot tilt (I never tilt or steam) and cannot get depressed by the losses. You have to take them like a man. Like I tell my wife: if I were taking piano lessons or flying lessons or any other lessons, it would cost thousands and I would not get back a dime. EVER. With poker, I'm paying thousands in lessons, but they are getting cheaper and I am eventually going to get it all back.

3. You have to be willing to work, which by the way everyone on this forum seems to do commendably. Thinking about hands, thinking about situations.

Now, why do I, a mere amateur, preach about learning poker? Let's just say that I know what I am talking about. Whether I will get good at poker, well, only time will tell.

By the way, how good are the people on this forum? Everyone seems to know *so* much about poker, I would assuming they are all killing it. No?

Re: Queens are a bust!
 

you seem to want to learn and picked a good place to do it.

[ QUOTE ]
By the way, how good are the people on this forum? Everyone seems to know *so* much about poker, I would assuming they are all killing it. No?

[/ QUOTE ]

i know many people on this forum are fantastic players...OTHER than david, mason and ray, who, come to think of it, i haven't seen post a hand he played in since the NL hand with AcKc where the maniac behind him hit his Q w/ Q8o on the river to win a 10k+ pot...great thread and real top notch turn play with river reasoning behind it...he should be posting more of those although i guess they don't happen too often.

in any case, some people on here kill the game, some lose (there are a lot of 2+2'ers remember and not all are winners), some break even, some win marginally. in any sample there is a distribution that is not centered entirely around an identifiable central tendency with a small variance...aka, people will be on all sides. those who post most often don't necessarily possess the most skill...i am a perfect example of that. i don't have anywhere near the skill i'd like to have and continue to post and learn...occasionally i get to help those who are earlier in the learning process than myself.

-Barron

Re: Queens are a bust!
 

You played it great until you rereraised the flop. As you said, only a better hand will call you, so only a better hand did. You risked a huge amount of money for little gain. See my longish diatribe that I just wrote about playing big stacks. You can consider an overpair to be just about the same as TPTK. http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...fpart=1#777859

Concerning who among the posters here are worth listening to, I think that is a great question. Personally, I am steadily beating the Party Poker games, but you might want to discount that because of your opinion of the opponents. However, with the stack sizes you show, your play would have been just as much a mistake there, as well. I think it is the structure of the Party games that affects the play as much as the quality of the opponents.

A better approach would be to read the posts in which people don't just say what to do, but say why. Then do the math (or analysis) yourself and see if you agree. That's why I try in my posts not just to tell what I think, but also to include all the reasoning behind it.

Don't assume that I do all of this altruistically (though sometimes I do). In a lot of the longer posts, I have worked out the reasoning in order to help clarify it in my own mind. In fact, I just made a post in which I ended up changing my mind after writing out all the math. I don't really assume that anyone else works all the way through my longer-winded posts, but I don't really care, either. I have learned more by writing than I have by reading.

Re: Queens are a bust!
 

Zag,

I just read your noted post with great interest. It makes perfect sense to me and I think the most useful (for me) aspect of what you wrote was that if I have a big stack, people will play differently against me. In particular, we can generalize what you wrote to mean:

- when you have a big stack (and I would add, especially when people know you are not afraid to push) people show you more respect. They are less likely to make a big bet on a bluff as they know they are putting their whole stack at risk. This is especially true for the middle level stacks.

- people will play you all the time for the implied odds, so you have to be doubly suspicious of calls that "aren't getting correct pot odds". If the boards looks scarey, you have to give it more respect.

Thanks! Fantastic post.

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