AA - faced with an all in on turn
 

Just the background, nothing is really known about the players since this was about 10 minutes or so into the game.

FullTiltPoker Game #344920084: Table Camden Rose
$0.50/$1 - No Limit Hold'em


Seat 6: VILLAIN ($100)
Seat 7: HERO ($103.55)

VILLAIN posts $1
The button is in seat #7

*** HOLE CARDS ***

Dealt to HERO [A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]]

UTG folds
Folds to VILLAIN
VILLAIN raises to $3
HERO raises to $7
SB folds
BB folds
VILLAIN calls $4

*** FLOP *** [3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]]
VILLAIN checks
HERO bets $15.50
VILLAIN calls $15.50

*** TURN *** [3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]] [9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]]
VILLAIN bets $77.50, and is all in

So what do you do here? And along with that, what mistakes have I made during the course of play so far? (results in white below)

<font color="white"> HERO calls $77.50
VILLAIN shows [9s Td]
HERO shows [As Ad]

*** RIVER *** [3c Tc 7d 9h] [Ts]
VILLAIN shows a full house, Tens full of Nines
HERO shows two pair, Aces and Tens
VILAIN wins the pot ($198.50) with a full house, Tens full of Nines </font>

Re: AA - faced with an all in on turn
 

Coming into the turn you were a 4 to 1 favorite to win the hand and made your opponent take 2 to 1 odds. That was great.

Unfortunately, you got very unlucky on the turn, and your opponent was able to make you take 3 to 2 odds as a 4 to 1 underdog.

The only way out of the hand was to decide that your opponent got lucky on the turn and to make the tough laydown.

Re: AA - faced with an all in on turn
 

I guess you could have reraised for a little more preflop, but so far you have played the hand fine. Given that you have no reads on this player I would go ahead and make this call. Most players would play a set much slower than this. Plus I've seen many players with QQ or KK call my reraise with no intention to fold unless an ace or king flops, so once they get a good flop they put all their chips in with it.

Re: AA - faced with an all in on turn
 

Usually with a set the line is to check/raise the turn. An odd play that way. Maybe villain thought that you could fold an overpair to a check/raise? You are beat. Fold.

Don't ever anymore min-raise preflop. I'd call you with any two (almost) if I was sure that you had those aces.

Re: AA - faced with an all in on turn
 

Since this is heads up, barring a really good read, I don't see laying this down.

Re: AA - faced with an all in on turn
 

You're very rarely ahead here. It seems an odd play by villain but this is a clear fold IMO. My rule of thumb is that the later in the hand a villain raises/pushes when you've shown strength, the less likely he is to be bluffing/semi-bluffing.

Re: AA - faced with an all in on turn
 

I probably don't lay this down either, mainly because he raised preflop. Most unknowns aren't raising T9. I think realistically i'm more afraid of TT than 99, but I think he's got JJ-KK often enough to make your hand good here a significant amount of the time.

This is a good example of the value of deception on his part. Pays to raise with some non-standard raising hands on occassion because people never put you on that hand.

Re: AA - faced with an all in on turn
 

His preflop raise and call is of the sort that makes me wonder how some players can have a stack at all, it often turns out they have sizeble stacks. Probably he expect a lot of FE for his C-bets. This is a real puke-call/puke-fold one. How is this guy thinking? Why does he want to push u off when he finally hits?
I fold this one without a read saying he likes to steal raised pots + the fact that he have some kind of read that u can fold PP. Ask him to show and fold, dont forget to puke.

Re: AA - faced with an all in on turn
 

Preflop: re-raise to $11.

Turn: As played, you're getting about 3:5. Honestly, I fold here. Remember: you have one-pair and the opponent wants you to callin. Grit, fold, feel free to kick the cat if you have one.

Re: AA - faced with an all in on turn
 

Anyone notice that the hand posted seems to be in a 2-handed game? I'd find it pretty tough to ever lay down AA in a heads up match on this board.

Re: AA - faced with an all in on turn
 

Well if you're going to make a comment like that instead of giving your opinion on the question, at least make the critique an intelligent one.

Just from what I wrote, I mentioned a Villain, Hero, SB, BB, and "folds to Villain" indicating at least one person was bewtween him and Hero. This means at least 5 people were playing. You can also see that I posted seats 6 and 7, so it's fair to assume a 9-10 handed ring game.

Sorry though, I'll be more specific next time. IT was a 9 handed game btw, but I really think that's irrelevant to the question since you should've been able to pick up at least 7 people with the numbering of the seats, or at least realizing there were people invovlved besides us at one point.

Re: AA - faced with an all in on turn
 

Strange hand. Raise more PF. Also, do you think Villain has a read on you? Does he put you on AA after a flop minraise? Or is this common for you with lesser hands such as KQs and AQ, AK? He may be pushing the turn with JJ or QQ if he thinks that your minraise preflop could signify one of these hands. Keep that in mine. It's not always what you read on your opponent but what you think they read on you.

My instincts tell me you are ahead, though.

He doesn't have 68 or 8J. He wouldn't have club-club.

His flop call is weird. He may have TT or AT. I don't think he has 33, 77, or 99. And I can't put him on 2 pairs. (even if he did, you'd have 8 river outs for Aces up, or trip aces).

He COULD have 77 I suppose. But not 33 or 99. I'd put his range on: 77, TT, AT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA. The pot is $45 on the turn and he has $77 left...would he really push here with TT or 77? It's possible b/c of the size of the pot and the club-club on board. Let's say yes. Would he push here with AT? Uhhhhh....if he's an idiot. We'll say maybe.
Would he push with JJ, QQ, KK, AA? Sure.

So I think he could have either of these hands. More than likely it's probably QQ or JJ.

There are 3 ways for him to have TT. There are 3 ways for him to have 77. There are 6 ways for him to have AT. There are 6 ways for him to have each of: JJ, QQ, KK. And 1 way for him to have AA.

That means there are 6 ways for him to be ahead.
There is 1 way for him to be equal (AA).
There are 24 ways for him to be behind.

If you call: Of the 6 ways he's ahead, you lose $100 = net loss $600
Of the 24 ways he's behind, you win $100 = net gain $2400.

So if you played the hand 30 times, you would be -$600 + $2400 = +$1800/30 = +$60.

So I'd say on average, you will win $60 on this hand by calling. Folding loses you about $23. Also, if he has a raggedy two pair, you are still about 16% to win on the river. (Any of the remaining 2 aces, or any of the two community cards to pair that are NOT his holding, for aces up).

I'd say call. Like I said, I think he likely holds QQ.

Re: AA - faced with an all in on turn
 

I'd raise to about $9 or $10 PF. That's pretty standard I think. I like the pot bet on the flop. Villian's play is a bit confusing. Calling a large bet on the flop then leading out for a big overbet on the turn. Could be an overpair or some sort of delayed bluff. However, without a great read on my opponent I would lay this down. You only have one pair. This may seem a bit weak but I try to avoid getting all of my chips in with poor odds after the flop with only a pair even if it means losing out on those few times when I had the best of it.

Re: AA - faced with an all in on turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
Strange hand. Raise more PF. Also, do you think Villain has a read on you? Does he put you on AA after a flop minraise? Or is this common for you with lesser hands such as KQs and AQ, AK? He may be pushing the turn with JJ or QQ if he thinks that your minraise preflop could signify one of these hands. Keep that in mine. It's not always what you read on your opponent but what you think they read on you.

My instincts tell me you are ahead, though.

He doesn't have 68 or 8J. He wouldn't have club-club.

His flop call is weird. He may have TT or AT. I don't think he has 33, 77, or 99. And I can't put him on 2 pairs. (even if he did, you'd have 8 river outs for Aces up, or trip aces).

He COULD have 77 I suppose. But not 33 or 99. I'd put his range on: 77, TT, AT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA. The pot is $45 on the turn and he has $77 left...would he really push here with TT or 77? It's possible b/c of the size of the pot and the club-club on board. Let's say yes. Would he push here with AT? Uhhhhh....if he's an idiot. We'll say maybe.
Would he push with JJ, QQ, KK, AA? Sure.

So I think he could have either of these hands. More than likely it's probably QQ or JJ.

There are 3 ways for him to have TT. There are 3 ways for him to have 77. There are 6 ways for him to have AT. There are 6 ways for him to have each of: JJ, QQ, KK. And 1 way for him to have AA.

That means there are 6 ways for him to be ahead.
There is 1 way for him to be equal (AA).
There are 24 ways for him to be behind.

If you call: Of the 6 ways he's ahead, you lose $100 = net loss $600
Of the 24 ways he's behind, you win $100 = net gain $2400.

So if you played the hand 30 times, you would be -$600 + $2400 = +$1800/30 = +$60.

So I'd say on average, you will win $60 on this hand by calling. Folding loses you about $23. Also, if he has a raggedy two pair, you are still about 16% to win on the river. (Any of the remaining 2 aces, or any of the two community cards to pair that are NOT his holding, for aces up).

I'd say call. Like I said, I think he likely holds QQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bump.

Anyone agree or disagree with this assessment?

Why? I'd like to hear what people think about this.

Thanks.

Re: AA - faced with an all in on turn
 

*Grunch*
Honestly, I don't beleive you did much wrong, besides not giving your oponent credit for a value bet on the turn. I do this all the time. I think its my biggest leak and I am constantly trying to remind myself to sit on my hands before I play back at a bet like this. I probably would have done exactly what you did, and then when he won. I would rebuy, and wait for my next opportunity to go heads up with a guy who would call 7*BB with T9o. A lot of the time I get my money back, and then some. Other times, they leave the table [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

Re: AA - faced with an all in on turn
 

Sorry, you are right, I was just looking at the stacks.

Re: AA - faced with an all in on turn
 

Well unfortunately if you viewed the results, it was the rag cards, two pair.

You're reasoning has some pretty good logic behind it. To answer some of your questions, he had just sat down, so unless he had been observing me before the game began, he would've had zero to no read on me since I probably hadn't played more than 1 hand since he sat down.

You say you don't think he could have 33 or 99, but I think both are possible. Many people raise with PP's pre flop, regardless of their strength, and since my re-raise was weak, he wasn't going to fold either of those.

As for the turn when he pushed, I would assume that if he had flopped or turned a set, he wouldn't be so agressive with it. It's definitly possible he has the overpair though, and decided enough was enough, and he wasn't going to let me hit what he might've thought was AK.

Regardless, his pre flop raise was random, but it was enough to trick me into thinking it was a good possibility he had JJ, QQ, or KK.

Re: AA - faced with an all in on turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
Just the background, nothing is really known about the players since this was about 10 minutes or so into the game.

FullTiltPoker Game #344920084: Table Camden Rose
$0.50/$1 - No Limit Hold'em


Seat 6: VILLAIN ($100)
Seat 7: HERO ($103.55)

VILLAIN posts $1
The button is in seat #7

*** HOLE CARDS ***

Dealt to HERO [A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]]

UTG folds
Folds to VILLAIN
VILLAIN raises to $3
HERO raises to $7

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the biggest mistake, in general, was this re-raise amount. Made it very easy for him to play correctly with medium pairs and such given the money ratios. Especially if you come out betting big on the flop. Also made it more difficult to narrow his range, which made the turn decision harder. It's a pretty bad mistake, moreso as it looks like you are hardly ever getting away from the hand post flop.

I would say the 9 likely hit his hand in some way, but may still be behind AA. Maybe 88, or JcQc etc. I guess it depends on whether he gives you a likely big pair for your preflop reraise. If that is likely, I fold to the 9 on the turn, but call if he made the move on a more blank looking card. In that case, I'd be more likely to have him on a weaker holding for his allin play, especially if he could have me on a wider range than just big pairs. But I don't really have a clue as I have so little info.

Re: AA - faced with an all in on turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would rebuy, and wait for my next opportunity to go heads up with a guy who would call 7*BB with T9o.

[/ QUOTE ]

He had already put in 3BB's, and faced a call of a further 4BBs. Hardly a donkey call, especially if op can be put on a narrow range for his action.

Re: AA - faced with an all in on turn
 

Reraise more preflop and fold to the turn bet. What hands do you think you beat that are pushing this turn?

Re: AA - faced with an all in on turn
 

I've learned it the hard way with overpairs recently that when you get reraised at these limits, one pair is beat like 90% of the time ;D

Re: AA - faced with an all in on turn
 

I think this is where that one line in Super/System applies to the SSNL game. With Aces, be happy taking a small pot or be willing to lose a big one.
So, make a big re-raise preflop. Take those 5 bucks or whatever it is and don't think twice about it. Otherwise, you'll end up having to pay someone off big time or make that sort of laydown not many people are capable of.

Re: AA - faced with an all in on turn
 

I disagree with this assesment. 50% of the time he has T9s, 25% of the time he flopped a straight, 25% of the time he has something really stupid.

Re: AA - faced with an all in on turn
 

i'm guessing he had a set, and probably fold, unless he has proven to be LAG

Re: AA - faced with an all in on turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
I disagree with this assesment. 50% of the time he has T9s, 25% of the time he flopped a straight, 25% of the time he has something really stupid.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you kidding?!

50% of the time he has T9???
25% of the time he flopped [turned] a straight!?
25% of the time he has something "really stupid"?

How often does an EP PF raise 3xbb signify T9 or J8?!

Far less than PP's, I'm sure of it. He's either got a set, or an overpair (underpair to you). More likely he's got an overpair and you are ahead.

So, of the "50%" of the time he has two pairs...what do you do knowing that 16% of the time you will hit aces up or better on the river?

Re: AA - faced with an all in on turn
 

I think Super System would advocate folding here. I would fold, unless I'm damn sure I have the guy beaten.

Re: AA - faced with an all in on turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
How often does an EP PF raise 3xbb signify T9 or J8?!

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not the right question.

Villan opened the pot preflop. If it's folded to villan in late position and he holds T9s he'll raise 85% of the time (I would too). If he holds J8, somewhat less often, but he will still raise (I would raise or fold, btw).

The question isn't "what does a PFR to 3x represent?" That puts your opponent on a too-rigid range preflop. The question is, "given the action on every street and the board, what is my opponent's range?"

The turn looked like it improved the opponent's hand. The turn wasn't flush, so that means either the opponent has a 9 or cards around it. But the opponent just called a stiff flop bet. Whhat would an opponent call a stiff bet with on that low of a flop that an offsuit 9 would improve? T9. This action looks exactly like T9 to me if the opponent overvalued his flopped top pair, which is typical of opponents.