NBA picks
 

I am bored so I am going to test a theory for over unders in the NBA. I am going to try this over 50 games and see how it goes.

DEN/CLE - under 203 - 1 unit
Hou/Sea - Under 193 - 1 unit
MINN/SA - over 174 - 5 units


Going to track progress here. Any feedback on picks are appreciated.

Re: NBA picks
 

Is the theory a secret? Is there a reason we can't know it? Is there a reason you can't track it on pen and paper in your basement, if you're not going to let us in on your brainchild? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: NBA picks
 

2-1 YTD +5 units

I am going to have to add a factor of whether someone is returning from injury. McGrady obviously makes a huge difference for Houston.

And yes I will share my formula soon enough.

Re: NBA picks
 

What is the theory, or what is it based on? Niss pretty much hit the nail on the head -- if you aren't going to give us any more info than this, it isn't very useful to post it.

Re: NBA picks
 

Also just FYI, you need to include the juice in your unit totals. So your total would be +4.9 units.

Re: NBA picks
 

I am working out the final details of it now. Basically what I am doing is taking both teams average points scored and allowed and averaging them together for a base.

I am then taking into consideration a calculation of

FG% x Assists x TO's forced (TURN OVERS)
FG% allowed x Assists allowed x TO's

I do this for each team which produces a number that will fall into the category of whether I will add or shave points from the teams averages.

My grid at present looks like this.

<950 950-999 1000-1049 1050-1099 >1099
-5 -3 1 3 5

So for the game tonight between MIL/Bos I produce the following results.

MIL 0.433 2 21.6 14 261.8784
0.462 2 21 14.9 289.1196

BOS 0.463 2 20.7 15.8 302.85756
0.448 2 20.2 17 307.6864 1161.54196

195.5 5 200.5

I multiplied in a 2 because of earlier work I did in researching this. It has no significance. So if you eliminate it you just move the numbers down. Yes this is stupid.

Anyway, I am right now focusing on games that produce a difference of at least 5. Bodog has this game currently at 202 so I will be laying off of this one.

The 3 games I am playing using this tonight will be.

(719) Seattle SuperSonics vs. (720) Portland Trail Blazers Over 191 (-105) Fri@10:05p

(709) Denver Nuggets vs. (710) New Jersey Nets Over 191 (-105) Fri@7:35p

(705) Utah Jazz vs. (706) Indiana Pacers Over 171 Fri@7:05p

Utah and Indiana produced 177.
Den and NJ produced 196.
Sea and Port produced 196.

I didn't have time this morning to do all the games but here are a few more.

Mia/Phi - at 200 on bodog. I produced 197.
Pho/NOH - at 196 on bodog. I produced 197.

1 unit each for these games. I will make sure to adjust for juice.

2-1 YTD +4.9 units

I am open to any feedback good or bad. I am just trying to figure out a means to do my due diligence when selecting the over/under for a game. I don't claim this to be a god sent method to bet the games. Just a theory that hopefully can be developed.

Flame away.

Re: NBA picks
 

that's some wild [censored]

Re: NBA picks
 

I think Niss is rather nosey.
Gonzalez

Re: NBA picks
 

I got a chance to pull the rest of the information. Here are the numbers.

FG% factor Assists TO's Total O/U Bodog
MIA 0.455 2 19 13 224.77
0.432 2 20 15 259.2
0
Phil 0.461 2 20 15 276.6
0.469 2 22 12 247.632 1008.202

196 (average score) 1 (factor) 197 (my total) 200 (bodog line)

Not touching unless greater than or equal 5.


Den 0.445 2 23 15.8 323.426
0.439 2 22 17 328.372

NJN 0.44 2 21.6 14.7 279.4176
0.432 2 19.9 13.7 235.55232 1166.76792

191 5 196 191

Utah 0.418 2 20 14 234.08
0.428 2 18 16 246.528

IND 0.452 2 19 15 257.64
0.425 2 18 16 244.8 983.048

180 -3 177 171

MIL 0.433 2 21.6 14 261.8784
0.462 2 21 14.9 289.1196

BOS 0.463 2 20.7 15.8 302.85756
0.448 2 20.2 17 307.6864 1161.54196

195.5 5 200.5 202

Pho 0.459 2 26.1 16 383.3568
0.431 2 15.7 14 189.4676

NOH 0.436 2 18.4 15.2 243.88096
0.451 2 17.9 14.6 235.72868 1052.43404

192 5 197 196

Sea 0.437 2 20.9 15.4 281.30564
0.489 2 22.7 14.2 315.24852

Port 0.434 2 16 12.6 174.9888
0.451 2 19.4 15.3 267.73164 1039.2746

193 3 196 191

Orl 0.431 2 17 13.8 202.2252
0.449 2 19.5 16.6 290.6826

Dal 0.463 2 17.1 14.1 223.26786
0.442 2 17.1 14 211.6296 927.80526

184.65 -5 179 187

GSW 0.431 2 21.3 16.1 295.60566
0.435 2 21.4 14.1 262.5138

Tor 0.436 2 19.8 15 258.984
0.493 2 23.3 13.9 319.33582 1136.43928

197.85 5 203 205


CHI 0.44 2 22.2 16 312.576
0.439 2 21.5 15.6 294.4812

DET 0.463 2 23.9 13.6 300.98704
0.446 2 19.6 11.9 208.05008 1116.09432

192.2 5 197 195


WASH 0.434 2 19.2 16.1 268.31616
0.447 2 22 13.8 271.4184

LAL 0.441 2 20.3 14.8 264.98808
0.447 2 20.5 14.2 260.2434 1064.96604

195.3 3 198 200


I will have a total of 4 picks tonight.

Dal/Orl under 187 - 1 unit ADDED

12/16/2005 - Results
 

Didn't think Grant Hill would have that big of an impact but he did. Second night a returning star makes a big difference.

3-1 isn't bad though. +2 units - vig

5-2 YTD +7 units - vig

Re: NBA picks
 

Sorry if my post wasn't clear -- I might have worded it poorly. I wasn't asking you to post your whole system ... just an idea of what was behind it. Good luck with it ... hope it works out for you.

12/17 - PICKS
 

4 games today. The numbers were very close across the board. I am actually playing 3 that are 4.5 instead of 5 so if you can get lower that is great.

Pacers/Knicks - Over 182 - 2 units
Det/Cha - over 193 - 1 unit
Sac/SA - over 191 - 1 unit

Re: 12/17 - RESULTS
 

1 - 2 even - vig

6 - 4 YTD +7 units - vig

12/19 Picks
 

Only game that really brought out a huge number is Det/Memphis.

I have it at 183. The line is currently at 174.

This is the only game I am playing today.

2 units on Det/Mem over 174.

Re: 12/19 Picks
 

Triple overtime always helps the over bet. A win is a win. Note. The game was 87 - 87 at the end of regulation. How sick is that? The line makers are good.

7-4 YTD +9 units - vig

12/20 Picks
 

I have a lot of action tonight. I see a lot of value in these lines. I have 4 plays.

Dal/Lal under 193 - 1 unit
Sea/Phoe under 212 - 1 unit
SAS/Mil over 185 - 2 units
Utah/Clev over 185 - 1 unit

Good luck.

12/20 Results
 

Damn you Kobe. Damn you. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

3 - 1 +5 units - vig

10 - 5 YTD +14 units - vig

12/21
 

I only see value atm on two games.

UTAH/Bos over 187
SAS/NY over 184

1 unit each.

I will check back later in the day to see if anything moves. I have 3 games that have 3 point differences. If they move I may play them.

12/21 RESULTS
 

2 - 0 +2 units - vig

12 - 5 YTD +16 units - vig

I am really happy with how well things are starting. I am trying to determine if I need to do any tweeks but my numbers are coming out very close to bodog's lines. Only betting those that are off by at least 5. I am debating whether to lower this based on results from other games.

Good luck.

12/22 Pick
 

I only see a small amount of value in one of the games tonight.

Dal/Sac under 201. I have it at 197 or 196. If you can get 202 it would be better.

1 unit.

Re: 12/22 Pick
 

I like the under here too.. This line is much lower then when these team usually match up in the past, but not quite low enough in my eyes.

Dallas has much more focus on defense under Avery Johnson, along with the injuries on the Sacramento side of the ball, I think they easily keep Sac well below their 25th best 99.2 a game..

All the trends are pointing to an Over, going to give the Under a play.

I'll play it for a unit.. GL!

12/22 RESULTS
 

Talk about slim margins.

1-0 +1 unit

13 - 5 YTD +17 Units - vig

Re: 12/22 RESULTS
 

May I ask where you get the information regarding FG%*Assists*TOs forced-FG% allowed*assists allowed*Tos?

Re: 12/22 RESULTS
 

I use www.nba.com. It appears to be updated day by day there. I go to the preview of each game and for each team there is a link to the "stats".

12/23 Picks
 

Well with this many games it was bound to produce some action. The numbers didn't disappoint.

2 games are going to be 2 units

Chi/Mem over 182 - I have the game closer to 190.
LAC/CHAR over 187 - I have this at 196.

1 unit for the rest.

DAL/Seat under 205
Wash/Phoe under 209 - Phoenix is a damn good team. They can light it up but plays defense. Their stats have the widest margin in terms of how they score and play defense.
Tor/SAS over 189 - this is border line. Only a 4 point difference.

Re: 12/23 Picks
 

With you on LAC/Bobcats, but big on the other side of Bulls/Grizz.

This is where purely statistical systems fall short IMO. Memphis dictates the pace of their games. They've been Under 9 of their last 10 games (the one Over was double-OT against Detroit), and of those 9, the HIGHEST total was 182 (vs. Phoenix). Most of the opening lines were in the 170's.

Also, if you look at the Bulls schedule, they have played a ton of Over teams...their total #'s are inflated. They are getting too much respect as an Over team here...Suns-Grizz opener was only 186.

Then again, your picks have faired much better than mine, so what do I know? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: 12/23 Picks
 

I think im going to stay away from both.. i think i agree with bills about memphis though.. under generators at home

i hate fridays so many games to look at!!

good luck tonight guys [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

12/23 RESULTS
 

There is obviously something to be said for your thoughts. I have a few thoughts on how to adjust but am not going to panic just yet. Horrible night but I honestly didn't think I could continue at my early clip. My goal is not to produce a 70% winning system rather a means to give myself an educated guess.

1-4 -5 units - vig

14-9 YTD +12 units - vig.

Any thoughts on adjustments. My first thought is to take the average of each team over the last 5 games to get my base number instead of season stats.

Any feedback is appreciated.

Re: 12/23 RESULTS
 

[ QUOTE ]
Any thoughts on adjustments. My first thought is to take the average of each team over the last 5 games to get my base number instead of season stats.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your intent is good, in that you want to get a feel for how the team is playing in its more recent games, but that still depends on the schedule. The #'s will be different if the last 5 games were against all Over teams or all Under teams...maybe you could factor the schedule in somehow? Then it gets complicated.

Frankly, your current system is having some success, I'd stick with it for now to give you some time to see how it does, and to give you a better idea of exactly how/why/if it needs to be tweaked.

Christmas Picks
 

Just one play today.

Mia/LAL under 195 1 unit

I actually have this way under but am going to think emotions will be high.

Good luck.

Re: Christmas Picks
 

[ QUOTE ]
Just one play today.

Mia/LAL under 195 1 unit

I actually have this way under but am going to think emotions will be high.

Good luck.

[/ QUOTE ]

Im with you! On Under 197 (-113)

good luck and happy holidays [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Christmas Picks
 

Yeah, I bet the Lakers to cover and the under. Merry Christmas!

Re: Christmas Picks
 

1-0 +1 unit - vig

15-9 YTD +13 units - vig

Re: NBA picks
 

Can't layoff this one although my gut is telling me too.

MEM/Utah over 167. 1 unit.

Re: NBA picks
 

Anyone have any input on the Denver @ GS over 207.5?? on a 3-1 night so far, I think this is a decent bet to take me to 4-1.. or no play? [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Re: NBA picks
 

I got it in at 205 with my numbers. I actually teased the under on this one.

Re: NBA picks
 

I couldn't have been more off on that. Hopefully you ignored me. 81 points in a quarter. Unreal.

12/26 - RESULTS
 

1-0 +1 unit - vig

16-9 YTD +14 units - vig

Re: 12/26 - RESULTS
 

haha yeah i saw that and laughed.. i also had talked to someone about the first qaurter over 53, and they said no to that as well so i ended up not playing anything.. oh well!

get'em tonight [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]