the official \"Baronzeus attempts to win at poker\" thread
 

i havent won at poker in a long time. i mean a long time. 26K hands of 0.00BB/100 now. here's the stats

http://baronzeus.com/lhesucks002.gif


what's most worrisome is that my went to showdown is up 2 points and my won& shwodwon is only down 1 point. so my showdown numbers are better than normal...yet i'm not winning. this is how i usually judge how good/bad im running.

anyone who knows about statistics please tell me that it's possible im running bad based on these stats...

check out my 30/60 game. 14K hands in this time period (almost 2.5 weeks) -2BB/100. im awesome.


anyhow im gonna update this thread daily with a status of how many hands i played and how bad/good i did. hopefully things will turn around soon.

Re: the official \"Baronzeus attempts to win at poker\" thread
 

My most recent hands at 75/150+ over a similar hand period:

http://www.mtmtechnologies.net/merryxmas1.JPG


All hands played online so far in December:

http://www.mtmtechnologies.net/merryxmas2.JPG


I post images to nudge you ([img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]) AND likewise remind you that things can turn around. I had a long rut for awhile but now things are showing signs of turning around, hang in there.

Happy holidays!

Re: the official \"Baronzeus attempts to win at poker\" thread
 

And a screen of a nice 4 month (remember i don't play as much as some of you guys) period:

http://www.mtmtechnologies.net/merryxmas3.JPG

Re: the official \"Baronzeus attempts to win at poker\" thread
 

I understand this is frustrating for you baronzeus. From what I understand your online poker career has gone very very smoothly until now. Runs like these can and will happen, especially at the high limits you play. We've all experienced them.

If you would've had a more "normal" start in poker you'd probably be more used to stretches like these and wouldn't be as bothered by it. Pure speculation of course.

It's very possible that the mental stress this causes you has resulted in some bad play. My suggestion to you would be to examine your game more carefully than usual, and if you don't find anything wrong just keep playing. Hopefully this experience will mean that the next time a similar (or much worse) stretch happens, you'll be better prepared for it and won't sweat it as much.

Good luck.

Re: the official \"Baronzeus attempts to win at poker\" thread
 

hey schneids,

thanks for the uplifting (?) graphs. im still gonna spend a lot of time working on my game (after exams of course! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] ) but at least this shows me that there's some hope for a fish like me.

i don't know how you guys deal with the -20K days. i had a -22K day the other day and it was damn near the worst thing thats ever happened to me.

Re: the official \"Baronzeus attempts to win at poker\" thread
 

hey fabian,

thanks for posting. i agree with all your points. i mean, in my first 150K hands my biggest downswing was 150BB. that's absurd, considering i play almost exclusively shorthanded games.

i am definitely mentally stressed when i am losing, and that's bad. im considering (GASP!) setting a stop loss for myself so that i can hopefully always be on my A game.

trust me, i've been going over my hands strenuously, trying to find anything that im doing differently. the one thing i've definitely noticed is too loose flop calls and too many bad river raise calls. the former mistake is not nearly as important as the latter in my opinion, because it's so much of a more costly mistake.


thanks again

Re: the official \"Baronzeus attempts to win at poker\" thread
 

DAY 1 UPDATE.

pretty good session. 50/100 and 100/200. as you can tell i was card dead in the 50/100 [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].

actually it was mostly HU and 3 handed, but grew to 4 and 5 handed later in the night. i still wasn't running "good" (lots of semibluffs came in and i kept making second best hands) but i ran good enough and managed to find a huge HU fish on 50/100 UB, which was awesome.

http://baronzeus.com/day1.gif


Edit: Please can a mod change my title to something cool/not retarded? I played my HULA match already [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: the official \"Baronzeus attempts to win at poker\" thread
 

Nice hit and run at the 100-200 pound level. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

-Diplomat

Re: the official \"Baronzeus attempts to win at poker\" thread
 

[ QUOTE ]

Edit: Please can a mod change my title to something cool/not retarded?

[/ QUOTE ]

Done.

Re: the official \"Baronzeus attempts to win at poker\" thread
 

Wow, and here I was feeling good about being able to play 5/10 consistently and 10/20 sporadically.

Re: the official \"Baronzeus attempts to win at poker\" thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Nice hit and run at the 100-200 pound level. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

-Diplomat

[/ QUOTE ]

he just wanted to win exactly enough to prove he was 1337 at p0k3r. ph34r $chn31d$

Re: the official \"Baronzeus attempts to win at poker\" thread
 

it would be cool if you could look at w$sd in pots over a certain size...i mean, i think it's the big pots that really determine how you're running

over ~25k hands, with a vpip of ~30 and wtsd of ~40, you've seen, what, around 3k showdowns? (ok, missing the BB showdowns, but whatever)

now say that you could magically replace the 30 smallest pots you won at showdown with the 30 largest pots you lost at showdown. if the average difference in those pot sizes is, say, 12BB, then we're looking at a 360BB swing...which is ~1.5BB/100 in winrate over 25k hands.

poker is [censored] sick man

Re: the official \"Baronzeus attempts to win at poker\" thread
 

Baron and Schneids have 7-10% higher VPIP than me. Their WTSD and W$WSF are both significantly higher. My W$SD is the same though.

Do you guys play a lot more HU and 3-4 handed? I have a hard time seeing where I'm going to add enough weaker hands to get close to that level of VPIP AND increase my WTSD%. I play almost exclusively 6-handed or 5-handed.

Re: the official \"Baronzeus attempts to win at poker\" thread
 

If you really want to have a long lasting poker career you're going to have to realize that 26k hands is nothing.

Re: the official \"Baronzeus attempts to win at poker\" thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
hey schneids,

thanks for the uplifting (?) graphs. im still gonna spend a lot of time working on my game (after exams of course! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] ) but at least this shows me that there's some hope for a fish like me.

i don't know how you guys deal with the -20K days. i had a -22K day the other day and it was damn near the worst thing thats ever happened to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

thats why i dropped limits...im recently coming back to 1/2+ but i have just under like 2k hands total at those limits ... my plan is to immediately drop if the loss amounts increase. i think its a good plan and i will no religiously follow MoM via JAsucker's advice.

those 20k days are a thing of the past for me.

Barron

Re: the official \"Baronzeus attempts to win at poker\" thread
 

what is MoM?

Re: the official \"Baronzeus attempts to win at poker\" thread
 

Ray Zee.

Re: the official \"Baronzeus attempts to win at poker\" thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
what is MoM?

[/ QUOTE ]

man on mountain= ray zee

Barron

Re: the official \"Baronzeus attempts to win at poker\" thread
 

[ QUOTE ]


Do you guys play a lot more HU and 3-4 handed?

[/ QUOTE ]

My stats say average 4 people at the table. There's HU in those numbers though, and also 5-6 handed games. My preflop is variable though. Some days I can be an 18 vpip in a 6 handed game, other days I can be 35. Likewise, in 3 handed games I might be 35 all the way up to 65vpip. Depends on the players and their tendencies. Against people who'll test me all day long but don't play horribly, I shade tighter. Against loose passives who are easy to know where I'm at, I play looser. Against solid TAGs, I again play tighter but not as tight as the solid LAGs.

Re: the official \"Baronzeus attempts to win at poker\" thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


Do you guys play a lot more HU and 3-4 handed?

[/ QUOTE ]

My stats say average 4 people at the table. There's HU in those numbers though, and also 5-6 handed games. My preflop is variable though. Some days I can be an 18 vpip in a 6 handed game, other days I can be 35. Likewise, in 3 handed games I might be 35 all the way up to 65vpip. Depends on the players and their tendencies. Against people who'll test me all day long but don't play horribly, I shade tighter. Against loose passives who are easy to know where I'm at, I play looser. Against solid TAGs, I again play tighter but not as tight as the solid LAGs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, I feel a bit better then [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. My average players at the table is 5.3, so my 25VPIP doesn't feel creaky tight as I thought it might be.

Re: the official \"Baronzeus attempts to win at poker\" thread
 

DAY 2 UPDATE.

I sat at the fishiest tables ever at 75/150 today and enjoyed the hell out of it. Hitting flops against fish is the best feeling. As you can see im running good!!!! Maybe all i needed to do was bitch a little more about my downswing.


my 30/60 showdown numbers completely BAFFLE me. i ran the worst there yet my showdown #s show otherwise. i will never understand poker [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

http://baronzeus.com/day2.gif

Re: the official \"Baronzeus attempts to win at poker\" thread
 

day 3 was not fun. i started out up 7K in 100 hands---then proceeded to lose most of it HU. i fought my way back to even after a long day.

as usual, i am crushing party 1/2. here are my day 3 stats

http://baronzeus.com/day3.gif



here are my total stats since i started this thread

http://baronzeus.com/total.gif

Re: the official \"Baronzeus attempts to win at poker\" thread
 

[ QUOTE ]

i havent won at poker in a long time. i mean a long time. 26K hands of 0.00BB/100 now.

[/ QUOTE ]
Amusing, but only because you're NOT joking.

GoT

Re: the official \"Baronzeus attempts to win at poker\" thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
here are my total stats since i started this thread

http://baronzeus.com/total.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Wish I'd had such a rough 3 days... [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: the official \"Baronzeus attempts to win at poker\" thread
 

I find this post shocking! The VPIPs and the W$WSF is fairly high yet you consider it running bad?

Or do you exclude W$SF and only use WTSD/W$SD as your "running good/bad" gauges? I guess its all shorterm with these 1 - 5 000 hand stats.

Could you guys(For me and maybe other posters) Remove your winnings(But show us say a 30 000 hand stretch) of your game filtered by 4+players up to 6 of course(6max stats only).

I'd like to see how differently the higher stakes 2+2ers play and get an idea of your stats.

Whats considered a good winrate/achieveable at your stakes also?

Sorry to "Hijack" your thread baron.

Also, Do you guys feel you've lost the sense of value on money? I mean throwing around $100/200 and losing $12k in a few hours or so must cause a "Desentisation"? Will you ever be happy if you have to quit poker(If i suddenly vanished) and got a 9-5 job with a RELATIVELY poor wage?

Ill be monitoring this thread whilst i grind away at my $1/2 ..... Hmm feels like pennys after watching this. Seeing my bankroll is red as decribed as a "bad session" LOL.

Re: the official \"Baronzeus attempts to win at poker\" thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
I find this post shocking! The VPIPs and the W$WSF is fairly high yet you consider it running bad?


[/ QUOTE ]

I play very short handed games, lots of HU and 3 handed where my VPIP is 60+. This artificially makes my VPIP seem high and makes me look a lot laggier than I actually am. Also, the lower the number of players at the table, the more often you have to W$WSF--logically, I think this makes sense.

[ QUOTE ]

Or do you exclude W$SF and only use WTSD/W$SD as your "running good/bad" gauges? I guess its all shorterm with these 1 - 5 000 hand stats.


[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, my favorite gauge is WTSD/W$SD, but apparently I should throw that out the window in these hyperaggressive games. Any player should KNOW when he/she is running bad just based on the flow of the game. If people are hitting 5 outer after 5 outer against your TPTK, then you know you need to stop running bad immediately and start winning.

[ QUOTE ]

Could you guys(For me and maybe other posters) Remove your winnings(But show us say a 30 000 hand stretch) of your game filtered by 4+players up to 6 of course(6max stats only).

I'd like to see how differently the higher stakes 2+2ers play and get an idea of your stats.


[/ QUOTE ]
I don't know exactly how to do this. I play so much 3 handed (my favorite type of poker) that I would have no idea how to separate it in Pokertracker without exporting into a new database.

[ QUOTE ]

Whats considered a good winrate/achieveable at your stakes also?


[/ QUOTE ]
I'm pretty sure I should be happy with anything positive, but I'm not happy with myself if I'm stuck with a .5 or .8BB/100 winrate. At the same time, I have no idea within any degree of certainty my true winrate at any limit. The only thing I know in my entire poker career is that I am a winner at 5/10 and a winner at 10/20. There is some calculator you can use, depending on SD, hands, and BB/100 that can tell you your winrate range up to 99.8% certainty.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, Do you guys feel you've lost the sense of value on money? I mean throwing around $100/200 and losing $12k in a few hours or so must cause a "Desentisation"? Will you ever be happy if you have to quit poker(If i suddenly vanished) and got a 9-5 job with a RELATIVELY poor wage?

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm really beginning to feel like I need to separate poker from life. In poker, I can lose 25K in a matter of 5 or 6 hours, but spending 20K to buy a new car that will last me 10 years would be a huge decision. Ultimately, though, I'm just a college kid trying to make some dough on the side until I graduate, at which point I will definitely take on a "real" job. If I manage to be as successful as the great/successful players on this site I will be very grateful for the nestegg that will allow me some freedom when it comes time for job hunting.




As for this thread, I am no longer going to update it. I have started running well again (had my second best day ever today) and feel like a jackass for continuing this thread. Thanks to everyone who replied constructively when I first posted this. We've all been there, and we will all be there again soon. I'm hoping for no more than one such 30K stretch every few months, because they truly, truly suck, and make me hate poker. Poker for me will continue on, but I've almost completely abandoned party 30/60. I think the game sucks and it has been crushing me for the past 30K played hands there (0BB/100) so I'm just going to 2-3 table the higher limit games that I find are good. Late night high stakes games are usually as good as the mid stakes games during the day, so I will hold out for those until I start running bad.


PS. I've decided to start using punctuation and capitalization again in my posts. I guess it makes things easier to read. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: the official \"Baronzeus attempts to win at poker\" thread
 

Hit a big wall since my first post in the thread. I guess regression towards the mean does happen. My new December to date totals online:

http://www.mtmtechnologies.net/merryxmas4.JPG

Did I ever mention this is my favorite forum?

Re: the official \"Baronzeus attempts to win at poker\" thread
 

P.S. from hand 876 to 1344 this month I ran suuuuuper bad, way worse than any 468 hand stretch in my life I think. I'm pretty confident though that the next 468 hand stretch HAS to improve because I'm due.

Re: the official \"Baronzeus attempts to win at poker\" thread
 

Way to hijack my thread!

Quick question, and you can answer in a PM if you want.

How do the Interpoker big games compare to UB or Party? You seem to play there exclusively so I'm just curious.

Re: the official \"Baronzeus attempts to win at poker\" thread
 

Any updates buddy? I was looking forward to another update so I could try to hijack it again!!!!

As a teaser, I'm up to 2,151 hands played online this month! Things are going stellar!

Re: the official \"Baronzeus attempts to win at poker\" thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Way to hijack my blog!


[/ QUOTE ]

Re: the official \"Baronzeus attempts to win at poker\" thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Any updates buddy? I was looking forward to another update so I could try to hijack it again!!!!

As a teaser, I'm up to 2,151 hands played online this month! Things are going stellar!

[/ QUOTE ]


I could update it, but everyone in the forum would hate me cuz I've been running ridiculously hot.

Plus you never responded to my most recent PM [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img].

I'll make a deal, you post yours and I will post mine. Then I won't look like such a jackass.

Re: the official \"Baronzeus attempts to win at poker\" thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm pretty confident though that the next 468 hand stretch HAS to improve because I'm due.

[/ QUOTE ]


What an awesome attitude to have. I have the same attitude and it always works out [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: the official \"Baronzeus attempts to win at poker\" thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Any updates buddy? I was looking forward to another update so I could try to hijack it again!!!!

As a teaser, I'm up to 2,151 hands played online this month! Things are going stellar!

[/ QUOTE ]


I could update it, but everyone in the forum would hate me cuz I've been running ridiculously hot.

Plus you never responded to my most recent PM [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img].

I'll make a deal, you post yours and I will post mine. Then I won't look like such a jackass.

[/ QUOTE ]
You are obviously good at poker and should be proud of that. F*ck the haters.

Re: the official \"Baronzeus attempts to win at poker\" thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Any updates buddy? I was looking forward to another update so I could try to hijack it again!!!!

As a teaser, I'm up to 2,151 hands played online this month! Things are going stellar!

[/ QUOTE ]

you are the laziest semi kinda pro poker player ever....ever....did i say ever...


ever...


24khands/year? that your goal?

Barron

Re: the official \"Baronzeus attempts to win at poker\" thread
 

baron - i lazed over most of the thread, but in responce to your initial post, sorry if its been mentioned....

if you are comparing WtSD and W$SD for different periods of time it is very important to take into account APH (average players per hand), and adjust accordingly.

I think its very difficult to seperate luck from skill to any great extent using just those two numbers.

Re: the official \"Baronzeus attempts to win at poker\" thread
 

[ QUOTE ]

I think its very difficult to seperate luck from skill to any great extent using just those two numbers.

[/ QUOTE ]

you mean i don't necessarily suck?

Re: the official \"Baronzeus attempts to win at poker\" thread
 

B,

You first! It's not a HIJACK if I go first. I promise I will if you will.

Re: the official \"Baronzeus attempts to win at poker\" thread
 

OK, so here's the 3 days since posting the last update. As you can tell, I've been running pretty awfully. Especially at 50/100.

PS. I'm in the middle of a sick 2K breakeven streak.

http://baronzeus.com/updated.gif



My total for the 6 day period:

http://baronzeus.com/total2.gif

Re: the official \"Baronzeus attempts to win at poker\" thread
 

Where have you been playing HU 50/100?