Yet Another Big River Fold
 

5-10 6-max

The last hand I threebet the same guy with some hand (I don't remember what) and the guy to my left coldcalled the three. He's relatively new to the game but he's coldcalled a lot, and though he sucks he's not just a spewing moron, as in an earlier hand with two aces on board he raised me on the flop with 77 but went into check-call mode when some guy behind coldcalled. So he's not a mindless bettor.

Preflop: hijack openraises, I threebet from the cutoff with 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. The button coldcalls three and the hijack caps.

Flop: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Hijack bets, I raise, button coldcalls, hijack calls.

Turn: Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Checked to me, I bet, button raises, hijack folds, I threebet, button caps.

River: Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I'm getting 18-1 and I checkfold.

-Michael

Re: Yet Another Big River Fold
 

What if he has 44?

Re: Yet Another Big River Fold
 

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What if he has 44?

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Re: Yet Another Big River Fold
 

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What if he has 44?

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Re: Yet Another Big River Fold
 

I didn't really think he could have 44, because I think he would have checked the river with that hand, and I am basing that on the fact that he actually slowed down with 77 on the AAxx board (both cards under a 7) when somebody coldcalled his flop raise.

However, of course these guys make stupid plays like just firing through with 44 all the time.

-Michael

Re: Yet Another Big River Fold
 

I think its a very bad fold. Button showed that he is not a very competent player with his coldcalling. The 3 queens on board make it less likely that he has one.
He probably wouldnt coldcall the flop and then raise the turn with a higher pair because the 2nd queen hit.
Imo 44 is very likely here, at least surely enough to call this getting 18:1. Stuff like this can cost you a lot of money. Dont try to be a hero [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Yet Another Big River Fold
 

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..in an earlier hand with two aces on board he raised me on the flop with 77 ...

I'm getting 18-1 and I checkfold.


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After seeing what he did in the above hand, he might have
Q-x, but he might also have PP 44's - AA or KJs, JTs.

I call. but hate to.

regards

Re: Yet Another Big River Fold
 

Whyyyyyyyyy? Are you really 95% sure you're beat?

It's just one more big bet! [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: Yet Another Big River Fold
 

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However, of course these guys make stupid plays like just firing through with 44 all the time.


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Re: Yet Another Big River Fold
 

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Yet Another Big River Fold

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Yes it sure as hell is.

Re: Yet Another Big River Fold
 

Let me join the 44 chorus and add some details.

1. 44 actually seems like a reasonable triple coldcall (as such things go) whereas most queens are completely ridiculous.

2. Where was his queen on the flop? The 77 story gives me the idea this player may have heard of protecting vulnerable hands. 44 is a probable flop call (versus raising) whereas AK/KQ/QJ/QT are possible flop calls. The flop call increases the relative likelihood of a 44 starting hand compared to a Qx starting hand.

3. Even if I could make this fold, you can't.

If I understand your previous posts correctly you are a very loose/aggressive player compared to most of us. This style of play filtered through the observations of a poor player is likely to leave the impression that you are out-of-control and unreliable. I'm not saying this is objectively true, but Button is unlikely to be able to preceive the method behind the madness. A feeling that your hand may not be as good as it sounds combined with previous examples of you being aggressive and eventually folding is about all a player at his level needs to take a shot with 44.

4. Objectively speaking a river bet with 44 is a very good play. Analysis of your betting makes 99 almost certain. It has to be right to take the 17-1 shot that you will do what you did.

Re: Yet Another Big River Fold
 

Please call. The reasons have been stated already.

Re: Yet Another Big River Fold
 

i hate fold posts.

Re: Yet Another Big River Fold
 

"i hate fold posts."

Me too. I'll try to make correct calls in the future so I don't have to post them.

-Michael

Re: Yet Another Big River Fold
 

you have to call this - 18-1 - do you really think that 17 out of 18 times he has the Q - imho there is not such thing as a 'tough/good' river fold in short handed limit holdem (ok maybe a couple - but not many when you are getting 20-1)

Re: Yet Another Big River Fold
 

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i hate fold posts.

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one of the following is guaranteed to be true:

1 - you fold too many winners on the river.
2 - you call with a losing hand too often on the river.
3 - you play perfectly.

Re: Yet Another Big River Fold
 

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one of the following is guaranteed to be true:

1 - you fold too many winners on the river.
2 - you call with a losing hand too often on the river.
3 - you play perfectly.

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Great! So I can keep raising 72o UTG and I'll be playing perfectly. Awesome.

Re: Yet Another Big River Fold
 

Yes you're probably beat, but not 18 times out of 19 probably.

Re: Yet Another Big River Fold
 

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Yes you're probably beat, but not 18 times out of 19 probably.

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What tilts me quicker -- only being good one out of 19 times, or having my unsatisfied curiosity wonde r if I folded a winner?

Re: Yet Another Big River Fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i hate fold posts.

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one of the following is guaranteed to be true:

1 - you fold too many winners on the river.
2 - you call with a losing hand too often on the river.
3 - you play perfectly.

[/ QUOTE ]


#2 is definitely true. but it is the leak in my game that has the least priority for improvement.