my first preflop question in a long time...
 

same action nutso game as in the other post.

5 people limp to stella (loose bad player) who raises. 1 cold call sb calls and im in the bb. nobody is going to limp reraise (assume it and im sure its true ehre b/c these people dont limp rr their aces or kings). so im effectively getting 15:1 on the call.

are there ANY hands you fold here?

J2o? 52o? 32o? Q3o? name the hands you FOLD.

Barron

Re: my first preflop question in a long time...
 

All the ones that you have listed and the ones similar to that.

Re: my first preflop question in a long time...
 

Getting that much on my money I would probably call with any two, just to see if I could flop two pair or something big.
I did this once in a 20 game at FW. Everyone limps to me on the button, I call with K4o. Flop two pair turn a boat. Winning the big pot was nice, but sometimes turning over that kind of hand can really loosen a table up.

Re: my first preflop question in a long time...
 

94, 93, 92, 83, 82, 72. Everything else is playable imho for straight draws/flushdraws/two pair potential. I don't want to fold a face card because it might just be worth drawing to a broadway.

a quick note...
 

stella raised...

if tighty mcwhitey raised, how does this effect your range?

J2o and 32o are different. id rather have the 32 than the J2.

Barron

Re: my first preflop question in a long time...
 

I posted a question exactly like this in the ss forum with lots of different varities, but everyone said to fold. I think that it was pure groupthink BS on these forums. I think the only thing worth folding is unsuited low and medium cards with 3+ gaps, maybe some low unsuited connecters should be dropped too because of 2p being counterfitted.

Someone tried to construct an argument that the hands you will hit will be giving reverse implied odds, but I think that was false as well. The hands that you're trying to hit definitely won't be this. You may end in some super marginal situations, but so what? Just because the situation will be uncomfortable doesn't mean it will be an uprofitable spot.

The only thing that makes me think some of my reasoning may be wrong is that everyone at the table must be thinking this as well, and obviously someone has to be taking the worst of it.

Re: my first preflop question in a long time...
 

I fold 27 through 2-k off. I also fold 3-(8-k) 4-(8-K), once you get to 95 i start calling again. I might even fold most of these if they are suited unless the top card is jack or higher. But if you can make a striaght using both cards, you are baiscally in

Re: my first preflop question in a long time...
 

I'd fold hands that are unsuited and completely unconnected. I'm calling everything else.

good luck.
eric

Re: my first preflop question in a long time...
 

i'm folding any hands that are more than 5-gappers! atleast with any 4-gapper or less, you've got some drawing possibilities. I don't fold Ax, either...or Kxs

Re: my first preflop question in a long time...
 

[ QUOTE ]

The only thing that makes me think some of my reasoning may be wrong is that everyone at the table must be thinking this as well, and obviously someone has to be taking the worst of it.


[/ QUOTE ]

1. Alot of people arent actively thinkin if a hand is taking the worst of it. They see their hand and think it's pretty. So they play it.

2. The people taking the worst of it are the blinds.

Re: my first preflop question in a long time...
 

even 27o I will call here just because showing something like that down could prove to be +ev on your future hands.

Re: my first preflop question in a long time...
 

I would call with anytwo.

Re: my first preflop question in a long time...
 

You got 4 people in the pot already and five guys yet to make a decision. Your odds will be somewhere between 15:1 and 20:1 and there will be 6-9 players looking at the flop.

Your chances against flopping 2 pair are 49:1 and against a set are 73:1. This should show that calling with everything in a multiway-pot is wrong unless the pot is gigantic.

Against one or maybe two opponents it would be a totally different story of course.

Re: my first preflop question in a long time...
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would call with anytwo.

[/ QUOTE ]

i know. and i know a few others who are good players do as well.

but if you have J2o (which is the hand i folded here btw) you're gunna be in some bad spots and with the pot that size you're gunna have to gamble some of the time not knowing whats out there...anyways, to you and everybody else who plays any to, do you really think 15:1 is enough?

Barron

Re: my first preflop question in a long time...
 

"name the hands you FOLD."

K8, K7, K6, K5, K4, K3, K2, QT, Q9, Q8, Q7, Q6, Q5, Q4, Q3, Q2, J10, J9, J8, J7, J6, J5, J4, J3, J2, T9, T8, T7, T6, T5, T4, T3, T2, 98, 97, 96, 95, 94, 93, 92, 87, 86, 85, 84, 83, 82, 76, 75, 74, 73, 72, 65, 64, 63, 62, 54, 53, 52, 43, 42,32

Re: my first preflop question in a long time...
 

[ QUOTE ]
"name the hands you FOLD."

K8, K7, K6, K5, K4, K3, K2, QT, Q9, Q8, Q7, Q6, Q5, Q4, Q3, Q2, J10, J9, J8, J7, J6, J5, J4, J3, J2, T9, T8, T7, T6, T5, T4, T3, T2, 98, 97, 96, 95, 94, 93, 92, 87, 86, 85, 84, 83, 82, 76, 75, 74, 73, 72, 65, 64, 63, 62, 54, 53, 52, 43, 42,32

[/ QUOTE ]

I know you know I think this, but that hand selection is pretty bad, Tommy.

Re: my first preflop question in a long time...
 

Remember when you used to open a nice, new pack of cards (when we used to actually handle packs of cards), and that weird Hoyle odds card would come out, usually right next to one of the jokers?

I would call with that card, and any other card from the deck.

TSP

Re: my first preflop question in a long time...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Remember when you used to open a nice, new pack of cards (when we used to actually handle packs of cards), and that weird Hoyle odds card would come out, usually right next to one of the jokers?

I would call with that card, and any other card from the deck.

TSP

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

God help us . . .
 

[ QUOTE ]
"name the hands you FOLD."

QT . . J10 . . T9 . . 98

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is intended to be serious advice, it is the worst advice from an ev perspective that I have ever seen on 2+2.

I wouldnt pay you $5.00 for your worthless opinions on poker, let alone $5k.

TSP

Re: God help us . . .
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
"name the hands you FOLD."

QT . . J10 . . T9 . . 98

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is intended to be serious advice, it is the worst advice from an ev perspective that I have ever seen on 2+2.

I wouldnt pay you $5.00 for your worthless opinions on poker, let alone $5k.

TSP

[/ QUOTE ]
Another interesting aspect of tommys advice is that it implies that he will call with hands like Axo and K9o, and IMO, QT,JT,109,98,(especially the last 3) are all much better to call with in this situation than Axo or K9o.

Re: God help us . . .
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
"name the hands you FOLD."

QT . . J10 . . T9 . . 98

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is intended to be serious advice, it is the worst advice from an ev perspective that I have ever seen on 2+2.

I wouldnt pay you $5.00 for your worthless opinions on poker, let alone $5k.

TSP

[/ QUOTE ]

No I'm sure you could do and search and find some even worse advice from him. But this is up there.

Re: God help us . . .
 

"tommys advice"

I didn't give any, but I will now. Make fewer assumptions.

Re: God help us . . .
 

[ QUOTE ]
"tommys advice"

I didn't give any, but I will now. Make fewer assumptions.

[/ QUOTE ]
OK how about "tommy's suggestions" is that better?

Re: my first preflop question in a long time...
 

There's 8 players in and you would make 9. That's 11% equity and to call the raise it's only 6%.

Ran pokerstove for AA and 7 other random hands against 98o and 32o. 98o 10.5% and 32o 5.5%.

Calling from the BB in the dark would make more sense than folding.

Re: my first preflop question in a long time...
 

good numbers

Re: my first preflop question in a long time...
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would call with anytwo.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm a nit. I'm gonna dump about the bottom 15-20% of hands here - ugly offsuit twos and threes, and really ugly offsuit fours.

- Andrew

www.pokerstove.com

Re: God help us . . .
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
"tommys advice"

I didn't give any, but I will now. Make fewer assumptions.

[/ QUOTE ]
OK how about "tommy's suggestions" is that better?

[/ QUOTE ]not really.

Re: God help us . . .
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
"tommys advice"

I didn't give any, but I will now. Make fewer assumptions.

[/ QUOTE ]
OK how about "tommy's suggestions" is that better?

[/ QUOTE ]not really.

[/ QUOTE ]
lol, Im sorry, I was attempting to be sarcastic. I guess I failed.

Re: my first preflop question in a long time...
 

next time your in this spot and there is no chance of it being limp re-raised, don't bother looking at your cards and get in there.

Re: my first preflop question in a long time...
 

Why J2o and the like? You are 49:1 to flop two pair which might not even be good. Seems pretty bad to call with hands like this.

Re: my first preflop question in a long time...
 

In a live game, I would literally call blind.
I don't do this often, but with those odds, I like to see the action before I decide.
On the flop, you can check, since there are very few hands you are going to bet into the field, and as action comes back to you with your relative position, you can decide what range of hands you will play and how.
It kind of a fun hand reading excercise for me.

If we are talking straight EV, I fold any offsuit 3 gapper T6 and lower and call with almost everything else for miracle flop value.

Re: my first preflop question in a long time...
 

I think tommy posts for the ultimate meta-game considerations - He realizes that a lot of players here will take his advice, and therefore make the online games better by doing rediculous passive/tight things.

He then creates an account and steals from anyone who tries to play like he posts.

God bless you for making the online games better by confusing the hell out of 2+2ers.

Re: my first preflop question in a long time...
 

any offsuit highcard low card junk hand like J2o K6o etc should be mucked. any A should be played. K9o, Q8o, J7o are playable, but T6o and worse is a muck.

i like your avatar. was that a deleted scene from north by northwest?

Re: my first preflop question in a long time...
 

"J10"

dear tommy,

that is stupid.

love,
mike l.

Re: my first preflop question in a long time...
 

[ QUOTE ]
i'm folding any hands that are more than 5-gappers! atleast with any 4-gapper or less, you've got some drawing possibilities. I don't fold Ax, either...or Kxs

[/ QUOTE ]

Or xxs!

Re: my first preflop question in a long time...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why J2o and the like? You are 49:1 to flop two pair which might not even be good. Seems pretty bad to call with hands like this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I might be wrong, but that doesn't sound right. Off the top of my head I think its more like 25:1.

RESULTS
 

Of course everybody noticed the follwoing:

1) i didn't count right b/c 8 players in + my bb = 8*2+1=17:1 not 15:1.

2) same concept though. i should play any hand that has +EV assuming no reraise. so anythying with greater equity than 5.555555555555556% should be played.

So, to solve this, i wrote to Dr. Brian Alspach of Simon Fraser University in BC, Canada. He is a PhD. and loves writing about poker and from what i understand had a part in the development of the PokiBot. In any case, here is the email i sent to him:

[ QUOTE ]
Dear Dr. Alspach,

I wrote to you a number of years ago and you were actually responsible for my progression into poker. It was your page that I stumbled upon while looking up some probability from “Rounders.” I don’t know if you remember or not but we had a few email conversations back and forth when I was at the Dept of Labor (email: gatib@pwba.dol.gov or gatib@dol.gov if you want to search your emails if you still have them)

I have posted on 2p2 since then under DcifrThs and have made it a long long way, yet still have much further to go.

In any case, there is currently a thread I started where I was effectively getting 17:1 in the BB and asked what hands everybody would FOLD. I got some varied responses from “I never fold any hand getting 18:1” to “I fold QTo JTo etc..” meaning that he thought JTo would do worse than 5.555556% (1/18) effectively closing the action (I assumed no reraise)

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...=14&fpart=

there is the thread.

I would love to know your thoughts on this situation.

Further, I am about to post a results post where Id like to say “the Probability of flopping two pair, a straight draw with one card or better (full hourse, quads etc.) is X% with J2o and Y% with 32o”

I didn’t see anything like that in your poker digest essays that I reread occasionally and use most frequently w.r.t. overcards flopping to a hole pair.

How would you go about setting this up?(This= the above thread, not the overcards to a pair) I also think that the solution to this question would make a great addition to your already excellent poker digest articles.

Thanks a lot.

Regards
Barron


[/ QUOTE ]

with hope, he will respond to either me, or this thread.

-Barron

Re: my first preflop question in a long time...
 

i dont know but i paid $100 for it [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

glad you like it.

search OOT for my thread where i said something liek "$200 for each of two videos" or thereabouts. to the person who gave me the video i gave $100.

-Barron

Re: my first preflop question in a long time...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why J2o and the like? You are 49:1 to flop two pair which might not even be good. Seems pretty bad to call with hands like this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I might be wrong, but that doesn't sound right. Off the top of my head I think its more like 25:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

From Petriv's book, flopping exactly two pair is 49:1. Flopping two pair, trips, a full house, or quads is about 29:1.

Re: my first preflop question in a long time...
 

the ok thing about hands like J2o is bottom pair with an overcard kicker is a pretty decent draw, and you have a pretty good kicker for trips. I don't see much of a difference between J2o and J5o. since stella is loose and bad he doesn't have to have much of a hand.

the hands I'd fold are any 4+ gap T or lower. so T5, T4, T3, T2, 94, 93, 92, 83, 82, 72. my gut says J6-J2 is probably pretty close, and Q2o a little better than marginal.