Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
 

One of the most common generic types of posts on this forum is the "check-up" post where somebody posts their results (always good) from their last 100-1000 SNGs.

These posts suck.

We all want to get better at SNGs and we all want to know what is obtainable and sustainable in terms of earning potential. These posts don't help in either regard, and can be quite anti-productive in the latter regard.

You don't have to be a statistician to understand how selection bias deems the data contained in these post worthless.

So, the topic got me thinking about a little thought experiment:

Imagine if every registered user of 2+2 played a set of 500 SNGs.

Furthermore, for the sake of demonstration, imagine if every 2+2 poster was actually a LOSING poker player. Assume for a moment that we all had a "true" expected ROI of -9%

I asked our resident Monte Carlo simulator expert to plug-in a -9% ROI for every registered 2+2 user and have them play 500 SNGs.

How many "winners" would there be? 3703
Would somebody have a 20% or better ROI? Yep

So, even if we were all losing poker players playing 500 SNGs a month there could be thousands of posts by "winning" poker players each month talking about their last set of 500 SNGs.

If you want to know if you are any good, ask a long term winner to watch some of your HHs.

If you want to know what's sustainable, ask a long term winner what their ROI/ITM at a certain level has been. (Or search one of the 9384268268726127967234 posts on the topic.)

Irieguy

Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
 

Amen. My Brother. Amen.

Seth

Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
 

YEA!!!!! I think I may have posted one of these stupid posts a few months ago on my first 1000 SnG's. I really only did it because I'd seen a lot of those posts, and it's only been in the past few weeks or so that I've realized how incredibly stupid they are.

I say, if you want to make a results post, it should be minimum 5000 SnG's at a given level. If you're winning after 5000, you're probably a winner.

Even then, though, who really cares about my stats? No one except me and my landlord. It's just self-indulgent. And if you're posting 500 bad SnG's, it's a plea for pity. Yuck. Good post, Irie.

Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
 

I imagine the typical "My last 500 sngs at $XX buyin" poster expects this sort of validation.

http://hometown.aol.com/pimpen82/ima...ssing%20me.jpg

Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
 

Dude, that is one low res picture.

Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
 

You can bet that if a Penis post actually did RECEIVE this kind of validation, I would be posting my stats often.

Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
 

you mean my 5000% roi over my last three sitngos isnt because of my 1337 skills?

Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
 

It's hard to find a quality pic of 2 girls kissing some douchebag for no good reason.

Why I hate Irieguy
 

he introduced me to Vegas strip clubs.....

Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
 

Bones,

If that picture is of you, you are my type of dude.

Irieguy

Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
 

excellent post. i very much agree.

anyway, you said to ask a "long term" winner about roi and such; im curious as to how you would define "long term" in terms of number of sngs. i have heard some speculative responses to this question but your opinion would be greatly appreciated on the subject (if you have previously stated a number then i obviously missed it).

thanks,
bj

Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
 

[ QUOTE ]
Bones,

If that picture is of you, you are my type of dude.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

Unfortunately I don't run that well.

Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
 

sounds like someone's bitter cause their last 500 SNGs weren't good enough to post...

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
 

On the other hand, those 3703 losers with winning records would be anywhere from 51% to 99.9% confident, statistically speaking, they were winning players. Go figure.

I could care less if people want to post stats, but I do find it annoying when it's done under the guise of "How am I doing?" It's a lot like the guy with a 12" dong stepping out of the gym shower and asking everyone if he's shrinking a little because the hot water heater is broken. No one wants to answer, nor should they. It's just a way to trick people into looking at your (e)penis.

Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
 

[ QUOTE ]
excellent post. i very much agree.

anyway, you said to ask a "long term" winner about roi and such; im curious as to how you would define "long term" in terms of number of sngs. i have heard some speculative responses to this question but your opinion would be greatly appreciated on the subject (if you have previously stated a number then i obviously missed it).

thanks,
bj

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, it's not like there's some magic number where you are suddenly a "long term" winner. As your data set increases in size, your confidence intervals narrow. You can calculate how likely you are to be a winner after any number of SNGs, and you can define your confidence intervals whenever you would like. Aleo's spreadsheet will even do it all for you.

But, to answer your question more specifically: if for some goofy reason I wanted to know what ROI could be maintained at a given level, I would want to speak with someone who had beaten that level for more than 3,000 SNGs.

Irieguy

Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
 

Wow, if that is a 12oz beer, you and your friends are really, really tiny people!

If you absolutely must carry around a gigantic beverage, at least make it a Heineken.

I mean really! Bud Light? In a can? That large? Yikes.

Here is my promise never to post a 50/100/500/3000 SNG results thread. Also, never to be seen with a Bud Light that big....

Perhaps you have found your new avatar?? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

MGDMcSlack

Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
 

[ QUOTE ]
No one wants to answer, nor should they. It's just a way to trick people into looking at your (e)penis.

[/ QUOTE ]

Brilliant.

Irieguy

Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
 

[ QUOTE ]

We all want to get better at SNGs and we all want to know what is obtainable and sustainable in terms of earning potential. These posts don't help in either regard, and can be quite anti-productive in the latter regard.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is an excellent point. I don't really mind reading the posts. I usually just skip over them. But they probably hurt our perception of what really is sustainable at given levels, and how most people are really doing. That is a problem.

Also, My ROI at the STEP 5s is 41%. What can I do to improve it? Is that around what I should expect?

Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
 

i did one of these when i finished my first 500 (and the results happened to be good). the problem with this is that until you've done a bunch more than 500 you don't realize how dumb it is to make this type of post.

Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
 

[ QUOTE ]
i did one of these when i finished my first 500 (and the results happened to be good). the problem with this is that until you've done a bunch more than 500 you don't realize how dumb it is to make this type of post.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I just realized that I made at least one post like this early on. My bad Irie.

EDIT: When I did, if I remember, I didn't intend to brag. However, if my results had been terrible, I wouldn't have made the post out of embarassment. That may be what is skewing our data.

Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
 

[ QUOTE ]
Also, My ROI at the STEP 5s is 41%. What can I do to improve it? Is that around what I should expect?

[/ QUOTE ]

http://www.nightclubchicks.com/kissingagainladies.jpg

Chicks dig Step 5s.

Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Also, My ROI at the STEP 5s is 41%. What can I do to improve it? Is that around what I should expect?

[/ QUOTE ]

http://www.nightclubchicks.com/kissingagainladies.jpg

Chicks dig Step 5s.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bones,

You are really going to enjoy the STTF-HUC II.

Irieguy

Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
 

I don't like going around and telling people that I am freinds with or see on a daily basis really how I am doing in poker. As a 19 year old kid the forum provides an outlet where people can say "oh crap, i was making 9/hr delivering food in the rain, now i make 1124393/hr playing a game I enjoy". That initial realization is pretty incredible and if the forum helps to exercise your e-penis a little bit, I really see nothing wrong with that. Its a negative sum game, to be a significant winner is exciting, especially for young kids who do not possess the ability to make 1/10th that kind of money ever doing anything else. How is that any different than you, Irie, wanting to make social posts about seeing some Prince impersonator or brag that you had girls strip for you? You want this forum to provide certain things for you just like everyone else. If you wanna post about Yugo coming to LV go ahead, but yet you dont understand why a 20 year old kid wants to share that he just made 100000 over the last 20 hours in a game hes been working hard to beat with other people trying to accomplish the same goals?

Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Also, My ROI at the STEP 5s is 41%. What can I do to improve it? Is that around what I should expect?

[/ QUOTE ]

http://www.nightclubchicks.com/kissingagainladies.jpg

Chicks dig Step 5s.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not bad but the girls in the other pic are hotter.

Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
 

[ QUOTE ]
Bones,

You are really going to enjoy the STTF-HUC II.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

I plan on it. I'm gonna be in vegas in early December for a gin tournament. I hear the Spearmint Rhino is the place to be, so I might have to get some pre-STTF scouting in while I'm there.

Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
 

if someone achieves something they are proud of, and post hopeing for a pat on the back and words of encouragement...i have no problem with it.

Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
 

[ QUOTE ]
if someone achieves something they are proud of, and post hopeing for a pat on the back and words of encouragement...i have no problem with it.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I don't either. Some people insist on being forum sheriffs around here. Becoming better at poker is as much psychological as it is technical, and if someone wants reassurance that they're on the right track, I'm happy to give it to them.

Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
 

Is having a wife that will make out with strippers sustainable?

Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
 

No, because eventually she will sober up enough to realize the strippers are hotter than you are.

Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
 

There comes a point where if you are a winning player, you know it. Once this happens, it really doesn't even matter what your recent results look like. I still import all my hands in to PT, but I have quit looking at the stats. Ignoring my ROI has been one the most +ev developments my game has ever seen, I just can't prove it with numbers. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
 

Since you are replying to my post you must be talking about strippers.

How many strippers did your wife have to make out with before you knew it is sustainable?

Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
 

[ QUOTE ]
Since you are replying to my post you must be talking about strippers.

How many strippers did your wife have to make out with before you knew it is sustainable?

[/ QUOTE ]

READ THE [censored] FAQ!!!

Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
 

[ QUOTE ]
On the other hand, those 3703 losers with winning records would be anywhere from 51% to 99.9% confident, statistically speaking, they were winning players. Go figure.

I could care less if people want to post stats, but I do find it annoying when it's done under the guise of "How am I doing?" It's a lot like the guy with a 12" dong stepping out of the gym shower and asking everyone if he's shrinking a little because the hot water heater is broken. No one wants to answer, nor should they. It's just a way to trick people into looking at your (e)penis.

[/ QUOTE ]

It was meant to be a rhetorical question. Sorry. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Mack

Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
 

[ QUOTE ]

Furthermore, for the sake of demonstration, imagine if every 2+2 poster was actually a LOSING poker player. Assume for a moment that we all had a "true" expected ROI of -9%

I asked our resident Monte Carlo simulator expert to plug-in a -9% ROI for every registered 2+2 user and have them play 500 SNGs.

How many "winners" would there be? 3703
Would somebody have a 20% or better ROI? Yep


[/ QUOTE ]

Well, this is just wrong. The chance that you'd come out with 3703 winners is really small, and it isn't certain that any of them would have a 20% or better ROI. I assume you did one simulation and came up with this, but this conclusion is just horribly presumptuous.

Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Furthermore, for the sake of demonstration, imagine if every 2+2 poster was actually a LOSING poker player. Assume for a moment that we all had a "true" expected ROI of -9%

I asked our resident Monte Carlo simulator expert to plug-in a -9% ROI for every registered 2+2 user and have them play 500 SNGs.

How many "winners" would there be? 3703
Would somebody have a 20% or better ROI? Yep


[/ QUOTE ]

Well, this is just wrong. The chance that you'd come out with 3703 winners is really small, and it isn't certain that any of them would have a 20% or better ROI. I assume you did one simulation and came up with this, but this conclusion is just horribly presumptuous.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually I believe Irie's figures are pretty close to correct on this matter.

Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
 

[ QUOTE ]
Also, My ROI at the STEP 5s is 41%.

[/ QUOTE ]

http://www.sneakycracker.net/images/macros/epenis.jpg

Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Furthermore, for the sake of demonstration, imagine if every 2+2 poster was actually a LOSING poker player. Assume for a moment that we all had a "true" expected ROI of -9%

I asked our resident Monte Carlo simulator expert to plug-in a -9% ROI for every registered 2+2 user and have them play 500 SNGs.

How many "winners" would there be? 3703
Would somebody have a 20% or better ROI? Yep


[/ QUOTE ]

Well, this is just wrong. The chance that you'd come out with 3703 winners is really small, and it isn't certain that any of them would have a 20% or better ROI. I assume you did one simulation and came up with this, but this conclusion is just horribly presumptuous.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually I believe Irie's figures are pretty close to correct on this matter.

[/ QUOTE ]

i second that notion. these numbers are pretty spot on. holla

Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if someone achieves something they are proud of, and post hopeing for a pat on the back and words of encouragement...i have no problem with it.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I don't either. Some people insist on being forum sheriffs around here. Becoming better at poker is as much psychological as it is technical, and if someone wants reassurance that they're on the right track, I'm happy to give it to them.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. And OP shouldn't worry that reading stat posts are -EV. The readers can figure this out for themselves without a shrink.

Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
 

It's not really the size of your ROI, it's how you use it.

Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
 

Irieguy,

I generally agree with the points you make about 500 SNGs "bragging posts", which are very biased and do not give any real picture about anything (although they have some psychological role, both to the posters and readers).

But I think there's some logical loop in the way you present it in your post, which, in a way, is unavoidable, and thus I don't mean to point out a "flaw" in _your_ particular reasoning or something.

The point is, that even if all of 2+2 registered posters are -9% ROI players, there would still be a pretty healthy chance that some of them are in fact "long term" winners too, and very few might even be actually "crushing" the games (that is - there IS the possibility). Naturally confidence intervals will be different, etc, but still, even considering the existence of "long-term winners", you are clearly not able to say with 100% confidence whether this game is +EV at all - in the sense of being beatable for players with a particular set of abilities.

Therefore, there will always be some amount of "belief" involved here, a "belief" in the fairness and beatability of the game which you cannot "prove" or "refute", even if you take your advice only from "long term" winners (that is, unless you have some direct access to the RNG itself and full results of ALL players, and not even then, in some cases). And in that sense, and in a deep way, a 10K games sample is not essentially different than a 500 games sample, and if you take the "biased" element, and put it into posts about "winning over 10K games" (of course, they are very very few in comparison), you get basically the same picture as with the common 500 games posts, i.e, you could write the same post about those people posting those (rare, to say the least) "bragging 10K-games winning post", and all your points would still be valid.

...

Reading the above, I'm not sure I made myself clear, so I'll rephrase it:

X (number of) "500-games bragging posts" aren't much helpful in determining whether SNGs are beatable (and for what ROI, if at all), as much as Y number (Y<X by a big margin) of "10K-games bragging posts" aren't helpful.

BTW, those "10K-games bragging posts" posters don't neccessarily need to actually POST their "bragging posts", since they are simply the most prominent posters, that everybody "knows" they are winning over a long term. But surely if you consider the possibility that this is actually a forum that discusses some -EV game, there's a good chance that there would still be those few long-term winning players, and obvisouly, they'll be the most prominent, and a "proof" that this -EV game is actually beatable, and for what "win-rate".