Ever do this during a \'down swing\' ???
 

Hello,

I was wondering... has anyone ever... or ever even thought about moving up a limit during a down swing?

Here's what I'm thinking for example...

Let's say you normally beat the .50/1 tables at party for 4 to 5 BB/100 playing two tables.

Let's say you're on a 80BB down swing since starting a bonus.

If I go up to single tabling $2/$4 while 80BB down... and play well and no tilt... wouldn't it make sense that you'd have to eventually recover from the down swing?

I mean... you can't go down forever unless you're a losing player. Assuming I'm not... that would mean that I would eventually have to make back those 80BB... so why not make them back at four times the amount?

At least make 20BB back at $2/$4... then you're even money. Then drop back to $.50/$1.

Does that make sense to anyone else?

In order to never get your money back... you'd have to stay on the down swing for the rest of your life.

Make sense?

I welcome all comments about this notion.

Kindly,
EZ

Re: Ever do this during a \'down swing\' ???
 

For that matter, why not move up to 15/30? Make your money back quicker.

Re: Ever do this during a \'down swing\' ???
 

Incorrect. Thinking like this implies that you can accurately say you are "on" a downswing, when in reality, you have only been on one up to this point. I recommend reading "Inside the Poker Mind" by John Feeney. It will explain quite a bit about this type of thing.

Re: Ever do this during a \'down swing\' ???
 

yeah. i've done it.

Did it matter? not really.

You should move up a limit independent of your recent results. If you think your bankroll and skill can earn more at a higher limit, move up. Everyone's utility function is a little different so you'd have to decide for yourself.

However, I can state there is no EV to be gained by moving up in limits which is attributable to having been losing recently.

Re: Ever do this during a \'down swing\' ???
 

i think a lot of people do this. however, there is no statistical validity to being due for a rush. more often than not, you will make a comeback, just because a winning player is always more likely than not to win. this, of course, assumes that you don't move up to a level where you are no longer a winning player.

Re: Ever do this during a \'down swing\' ???
 

[ QUOTE ]
For that matter, why not move up to 15/30? Make your money back quicker.

[/ QUOTE ]

usfman,

What a stupid thing to say! I'm fairly certain the difference between play at .50/1 and 2/4 is much closer than .50/1 and 15/30. 15/30 would virtually be a different game whereas 2/4 would not.

Thanks to the other posters who took the time to respond with useful thoughts on this matter!

Kindly,
EZ

Re: Ever do this during a \'down swing\' ???
 

This is the "due" theory. I need to keep betting (and bet MORE money per hand) because I'm DUE

Re: Ever do this during a \'down swing\' ???
 

2/4 is perhaps the closest in limits to being like .5/1. At 1/2 or 3/6 you would get run over if you played your .5/1 game. Either way, your thesis is incorrect, you are thinking in terms of being able to predict when you are going to have an upswing, which is of course impossible.

Re: Ever do this during a \'down swing\' ???
 

There is no reason to suspect your will have an upswing.

There is no reason to suspect that your downswing will end anytime soon.

As we're all aware, the significance of your downswing will fade in time, but this will not be to a significant upswing in the near future. The expected result is that you will grind your way back out of the hole. The result is that hundreds of thousands of hands later (thousands of BB's later), you will have forgotten about this experience.

If you have the skill, bankroll, and risk tolerance to play in a higher game, you should have been playing there all along. If you made to choice not to move up before, and only think that has changed is you now have a smaller bankroll (and possibly less skill due to potential tilt) you definitely should not move up.

It's called chasing your losses. This is what gambling addicts do.

Re: Ever do this during a \'down swing\' ???
 

[ QUOTE ]
2/4 is perhaps the closest in limits to being like .5/1. At 1/2 or 3/6 you would get run over if you played your .5/1 game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Run over?

Re: Ever do this during a \'down swing\' ???
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
2/4 is perhaps the closest in limits to being like .5/1. At 1/2 or 3/6 you would get run over if you played your .5/1 game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Run over?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes. Run over. 1/2 and 3/6 are far more aggressive that .5/1 and if you are unfamiliar with this style of play, or have an inadequate bankroll, you will quickly be exploited.

Re: Ever do this during a \'down swing\' ???
 

If you are working on clearing a bonus, you want to be playing more hands in order to clear it faster rather than slower. If you go from 2 tables down to 1 table, it is going to take roughly twice as long to play the needed raked hands to clear the bonus.

If you drop to 1 table and go up to $2/$4, what happens if your 'slide' keeps going -- 20BB at $4 is then same as 80BB at $1 (and 20BB down really isn't a slide -- its just part of the game)

Assuming you are playing relatively smart, then I think variance is the key factor here. I'm working on clearing bonuses on Party right now and playing on 3 or 4 $0.5/$1 tables. Last night on 3 tables, I was up 30BB on the first, down 30BB on the second and up 65BB on the third. I was playing the same on each table -- just had a couple of whack-nuts on the -30BB table who kept sucking out.

(1 guy never raised PF with AA,KK,TT but did with 83o,64o -- go figure! [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] )

Dave

Re: Ever do this during a \'down swing\' ???
 

Hi Buster, [ QUOTE ]
2/4 is perhaps the closest in limits to being like .5/1.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've heard this before, but don't understand why. Do you know?

Re: Ever do this during a \'down swing\' ???
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Buster, [ QUOTE ]
2/4 is perhaps the closest in limits to being like .5/1.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've heard this before, but don't understand why. Do you know?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, i have no idea. I could only speculate... if you wanna hear it.

Re: Ever do this during a \'down swing\' ???
 

[ QUOTE ]
(1 guy never raised PF with AA,KK,TT but did with 83o,64o -- go figure! )

[/ QUOTE ]

It's like going up to a random guy on the street and kicking him in the groin. It's always successful, because noone sees it coming.

Re: Ever do this during a \'down swing\' ???
 

Yeah when I'm doing bad on poker I just put it all on red and pray.

Here is a question...
 

Thanks for your response.

Here's a question...

Assuming you're a winning player... let's say you personally have been considering moving from .50/1 to 2/4 for quite a while.

Let's also say that the results for your last 1000 hands had been a 100BB win. Or let's say the results for your last 1000 hands had been a 100BB loss.

No in-between. One or the other.

Now if you HAD to choose one of those scenarios to move up to 2/4... which would you choose?

Would you rather move up (let's say someone had a gun to your head) after a 100BB win for 1000 hands... or would you rather move up after a 100BB loss for 1000 hands?

And I know this isn't a real senario... but if it were... I'm interested in the decision you'd make personally.

Kindly,
EZ

Re: Ever do this during a \'down swing\' ???
 

Sure, go ahead.

Also, I already miss your blue guy avatar.

Re: Ever do this during a \'down swing\' ???
 

Many of the "recreational" poker players who play on Party either go to the lowest limit (.5/1) or start at the lowest limit offered in a casino, since this is what they are used to playing (2/4). A lot of the players at 1/2 are successful players at .5/1 who are moving up. Thus many people claim that 1/2 is actually more difficult than 2/4.

WJ

Re: Ever do this during a \'down swing\' ???
 

[ QUOTE ]
Also, I already miss your blue guy avatar.

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too.

Re: Ever do this during a \'down swing\' ???
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Also, I already miss your blue guy avatar.

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too!! I didn't read the fine print on the open challenge. Rest assured that this rediculous avatar will not continue for even 1 minute more than absolutely necessary.

Re: Ever do this during a \'down swing\' ???
 

Interesting. Somehow, I don't think I'll be jumping to 2/4 just yet though [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: Here is a question...
 

How I did in my last 1000 hands would not be involved in the decision. If I were forced to pick one or the other, I'd flip a coin, which would be only slightly more irrelevant, but whose meaning would be far less misleading.

If I found myself inclined to include the results last 1000 hands in my decision making, I know I'm on tilt. It's like looking at the gum on the sidewalk to firgure out when to cross the street.

Base your decision on a demonstrated win rate over a significantly large enough sample size, and having the bankroll to back it up.

Also, if and when you do move up, I would recommend not skipping 1/2. Yes, Party 1/2 sucks, it's full of rocks who ABC'ed their way out of .5/1 but don't have the skill or the stones for 2/4. But, if you want to keep moving up, you are going to run into the same types of players, except they will much better and the stakes will be much higher. It's important to fine-tune your rock-crushing skills on your way up. Otherwise it's like spending all your time at the driving range without ever learning how to chip it out of the rough.

Re: Ever do this during a \'down swing\' ???
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Also, I already miss your blue guy avatar.

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too!! I didn't read the fine print on the open challenge. Rest assured that this rediculous avatar will not continue for even 1 minute more than absolutely necessary.

[/ QUOTE ]

MegaMan, right?

Re: Ever do this during a \'down swing\' ???
 

The "action players" at 1/2 often go to the 6-max tables. The action players at 2/4 are in full-ring because there's no 6-max at 2/4.

Re: Ever do this during a \'down swing\' ???
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
For that matter, why not move up to 15/30? Make your money back quicker.

[/ QUOTE ]

usfman,

What a stupid thing to say! I'm fairly certain the difference between play at .50/1 and 2/4 is much closer than .50/1 and 15/30. 15/30 would virtually be a different game whereas 2/4 would not.

Thanks to the other posters who took the time to respond with useful thoughts on this matter!

Kindly,
EZ

[/ QUOTE ]

Look. My post was only an extrapolation of your thought process in the OP. You didn't mention that you thought the games were similar, only that you could win back your money quicker. Sorry if it seemed asinine. Seriously, to move up based on very short downswing seems ill advised. First, you don't know whether your downswing is luck or skill driven. Second, if you're not prepared for the game you move to, you'll keep that downswing going not reverse it.

To answer your question, I wouldn't base my move up or down on 1000 hands but if I did, I pick moving after I'm winning. Why? Just because is the only answer that's truthful. Any other makes faulty assumptions based on a short term result.

Re: Ever do this during a \'down swing\' ???
 

No, no gambler has ever increased his betting amounts to chase losses.

Re: Here is a question...
 

Given only those two options, I'd go with "last 1000 hands have been 100BB win" but not because of the numbers 1000 or 100.

My plan is to move up a level when my BR has increased by the same factor (0.5/1 --> 1/2 when BR doubles). If I hadn't already made the move to the higher level before the 1000 hand 100BB loss, then I would not be moving up afterwards -- got to earn the BR back. (didn't have the higher BR before the loss so I sure don't have it after)

If the last 1000 hands were positive 100BB, and that was the sufficient amount to double my BR, then I move up a level. Also, I've got to be relatively happy with how I'm playing -- not just on a lucky run of cards.

Dave

Re: Here is a question...
 

i would much rather move up after the 100bb win. i tend to get less agressive, and therefore less profitable, when in a slump. i wanna be at my best when moving up levels.

Re: Ever do this during a \'down swing\' ???
 

This is backwards thinking.

Perhaps you should figure out why the downswing instead of taking it to a higher level.

Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Re: Ever do this during a \'down swing\' ???
 

Yes it's a great idea. When you're finished doing that you can go beat up the roulette wheel.

Seriously though, if you're confident you're beating .5/1 then who cares if you're on a downswing or not?

If you're confident that you're beating .5/1 and you have the bankroll for 2/4, then move up.

Re: Ever do this during a \'down swing\' ???
 

I do the opposite of this.
If I drop 100BB or more and feel my confidence is waning or my game might be inferior then I will drop down a limit or two until I feel comfortable (bankroll wise and confidence-wise) to play again at the higher limit.

Doing it the way you suggest seems pretty stupid.
I believe that dropping down limits after a short-term losing skid has some validity though.

For similar reasons, I have no real issues with taking an occasional shot at a higher limit with the gains made from a short-term win....just as long as you don't get too carried away with it. If you do, then you are just going to find a way to give all your money back.

Re: Ever do this during a \'down swing\' ???
 

[ QUOTE ]

For similar reasons, I have no real issues with taking an occasional shot at a higher limit with the gains made from a short-term win....just as long as you don't get too carried away with it. If you do, then you are just going to find a way to give all your money back.

[/ QUOTE ]

can you detail an example? I really want to do this, but obviously don't have the sack for it... You are a respected poster, perhaps if you can do this, I can...

Re: Ever do this during a \'down swing\' ???
 

I use this system when I play roulette. I bet $5, then if I lose I bet $10. I keep doubling my bet until I win, because I can't keep losing, right?

Re: Ever do this during a \'down swing\' ???
 

If you have been intending on trying 15/30 and have 300-400BB or so and are sketchy about moving up you can try to take a shot at a higher level. even for a couple of orbits if you like.
If you drop 50BB or so then you drop back down and re-build.

Nothing too scientific. And I've been getting my ass kicked lately so I'm not sure anyone should listen to me anyway.

The idea of just 'taking a shot' at a higher level wasn't exactly invented by me...there are other threads on it.


It feels like I'm responding to someone completely different just because of that damn avatar-change.
I thought your old avatar was pretty gay....but now I'm in the camp of those who miss it.

Re: Ever do this during a \'down swing\' ???
 

[ QUOTE ]

I thought your old avatar was pretty gay....but now I'm in the camp of those who miss it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well anyone with a housecat as their avatar is surely the authority on what's gay.

Re: Ever do this during a \'down swing\' ???
 

there is no guarantee you will or can beat the higher limit.

Re: Ever do this during a \'down swing\' ???
 

As the others have said your thinking is flawed...swings happen, it's part of the game. I'm in the midst of a six week losing streak myself, bonuses and rakeback have kept my head above water but it has been a very frustrating ordeal.

When you start thinking that you should move up to win back your losses is the time you should probably take a break and get away from the game. After a horrible run last night chasing the stupid BBJ at Party I've decided to stop playing for a couple weeks to get my focus back, I recommend something similar for you as well.

Peace,
J

Re: Ever do this during a \'down swing\' ???
 

ZING!!!

Re: Ever do this during a \'down swing\' ???
 

[ QUOTE ]
I use this system when I play roulette. I bet $5, then if I lose I bet $10. I keep doubling my bet until I win, because I can't keep losing, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, that's what I used to think.
(I know you're being sarcastic)