I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
 

I still can't do it. I still can't play perfect poker. And I don't mean that I still make mistakes, 'cause I know I'll always do that and I'm okay with that. The idea is to take the time, do the math work, and try to spot the mistakes so I can put an end to them, so I can become the player I want to be. No, that's not what I mean at all. It's doing things like this, where I know exactly what the right play is, but do something different anyway like a complete dumbass. That's what the fish can't stop doing. That's what the typical tight-playing mid-stakes playeres can't stop doing. But not me, for I can rise above all that [censored]. Can't I?

A great 80 game yesterday at Bay 101. There're two walkers right now and we're 8-handed and I'm playing well. No, I'm playing VERY well. My head is clear, I'm making great decisions. At least until this hand.

I'm dealt 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] UTG and raise. I've been doing a lot of opening in the past few hours and some of the players are starting to notice. I'm not getting isolated weakly or liberally, but I'm getting calls from the blinds HU with some really weak holdings.

Anyway, UTG+1 is one of the three spots at the table who is too tight PF, but good and thinks well postflop. He hesitates and cold-calls, which a first for the session. Immediate thoughts were 44-88, AJs, KQs, maybe AA/KK/99. Could be slightly wider, but not by much if any. Next to act is a floorperson who's way too loose PF but not overly aggro, too loose and aggressive on the flop, and typical loose fish on the turn and river. He 3-bets in rhythm and it's folded to a fishy fish Button who calls. SB folds, loose'ish BB calls, I call, UTG+1 calls. There goes AA/KK.

5 to the flop for 15 SB's.

Flop comes: 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Checked to the floorperson who bets, Button does what he does and calls, BB folds. I call, UTG+1 check-raises. NH sir. Now the floorperson just calls, Button calls, I call. 4 to the turn for 11.75 BB's.

Turn comes: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I check, UTG+1 bets, floor calls, Button calls. Now as soon as I checked my brain started doing the usual turn math calcs, and by the time it was bet and called back to me I knew what my action should be. So I go to slide to the chip off my cards and flick them toward the dealer, but my body doesn't do it. Instead, I find myself rethinking the math and trying to find a way where I can be justified in calling here.

I think about my implied odds and try to tell myself that they greatly outweigh my reverse implied odds. I try to tell myself that I don't want these chips going into a too-tight player's stack, and certainly not one on my immediate left. I try recalcing the math and trying to weight things so that I can tell myself a call is good here, that I can make money with a call. I try, but I'm not fooling anybody. I know this is a losing call. And I as I tell myself that, my hand reaches out and cuts off two stacks of four.

I thought about this hand a lot last night. I've thought about it a lot this morning. I [censored] hate myself for being so [censored] weak-minded and not being able to take the action that I know is best, just because I can't get over the bullshit mantras about big pots and strong draws, or big pots and top pairs, or whatever. I know I know how to play this game, and I know I could be a good player -IF- I would only let myself get beyond all the bullshit. I'm hoping this post will help me in that regard. Thanks for listening.

GoT

Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
 

Nice post. I definitely can relate to what you are saying as I (and I am sure many others) have this same problem. Now I am nowhere as good as you Guy, but I definitely have the knowledge to be beating the games in which I play for more (and higher ones I suspect) if I could just play perfect --i.e., not make emotionally based decisions (and I am not talking full on TILT! here) that deviate from what I know mathematically and logically the correct decision, in fact, is. While I have tons of room to improve in my thinking and understanding of the game, if I could just play mistake free in the sense thatyou described, my results would be so much better.

Thanks for sharing.

Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
 

I know I have this problem in the 30 a lot with paying off.

I'm pretty sure UTG+1 is full, but do the other guys have to have higher pairs? if not you may have the 2 5's left as outs, at least half the time...so the call would be borderline correct.

Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
 

man that was a good read. very captivating. by the time you got to the UTG+1 c'r on the flop i was like i wonder what he couldn't do,

then utg+1 bet the turn and i started hoping you folded and the post was a joke, i really got into it. almost talked to the monitor lol,

nah, GoT, nobody is perfect and yo uknow that. what you did here i think has been refered to as "thinking man's tilt," and this post probably hellps you get over it.

on the turn its about 15:1 on your call, you went through it and were sooooo close to being able to call, 20.75 implied in best case possible still isn't enough. 95% chance or higher your 8 out of 10 outs are no good. 15:1...god thats so close but you know so its cool.

anyways, i know that wasn't your point and i know you went over that b/c you stated your thoughts and you said you knew you should fold but called.

thinking mans tilt, and typing out this post is likely a good cure.

-Barron

Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
 

[ QUOTE ]
I know I have this problem in the 30 a lot with paying off.

I'm pretty sure UTG+1 is full, but do the other guys have to have higher pairs? if not you may have the 2 5's left as outs, at least half the time...so the call would be borderline correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

i forgot about the 5s, thats even closer... 2/46 nets you 22:1 necessary for the call. if you have all 4 of those outs its 10.5:1. if you have 3 of them its 14.33.

there's 1 way for 55, 3 ways for 66 and 3 ways for 44. so 1 out of 7 times you are drawing dead. those times you're against 44 you have 4 outs. 66 you have 2 outs. 3*2+3*4+1*0=18/7=2.57 outs. you are now needing 16.88:1 to call ... but that also makes your river decision tough. if you ALWAYS just check and call, he may not bet the 45556 bard. so you lose value when you hit a 5. if you c'r when you hit a 7, 1/7 times you lose that plus ANOTHER bet when he 3bets you w/ 55 90% and 66 10%. so reverse implied odds here suck.

no matter how you cut it, GoT had to fold on the turn. he didn't and suffered from thinking man's tilt.

-Barron

Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
 

worry not. i think it's a small mistake. it cost u little. move on to next hand. keep winning.

next time fold 77 UTG, and be peaceful.

- Kenny

Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
 

Your call on the turn isn't a losing play. Playing a small pair up front in an 80-160 game is.

I stopped by briefly last night and I did see it was possibly the best game I'd seen in a long time. Couldn't get into it, though. If there was a game where playing 77 up front is OK, it's this one, but position is so much more fun, and there are more than enough people in that game (even last night) who can make your life more than uncomfortable with isolation.

Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
 

[ QUOTE ]
worry not. i think it's a small mistake. it cost u little.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've worked hard to make sure I don't think like this.

GoT

Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
 

[ QUOTE ]
Your call on the turn isn't a losing play.

[/ QUOTE ]

I did the math in my head several times yesterday and walked thru all the numbers just this morning with someone else. I'm fairly confident I can't make money on the turn here.

[ QUOTE ]
Playing a small pair up front in an 80-160 game is.

[/ QUOTE ]

You'll have a hard time convincing me that me opening with 77 from 5 off the Button is a losing play in games like this. Filtered for: Not a Blind, 88-66, 4-6 off the button, Raised first in, I get +0.51 BB/hand, which is a very significant profit. I definitely pick my spots, as 88 accounts for 68% of those; 77, 27%; and 66, 4%. The game I was in was very much like the current 30's online, except with one tight'ish player replaced with a tighter player per table. That or any other slight difference is not going to make up for what was a significantly profitable preflop situation.

GoT

Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
 

I've played in that game for a year and I can tell you that it's a loser. It's a winner for you yesterday, since they were all clowns (not the normal lineup), and you're from out of town.

Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
 

Very nice post. I can relate to much of what you have said.

I especially like your insight here:

[ QUOTE ]
Instead, I find myself rethinking the math and trying to find a way where I can be justified in calling here.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think I do this a lot more than I should.



Having said that, you're getting about 15:1 for your call.

You can improve to a nut boat.

You can also improve to a straight.

Is your read so solid on this guy that you can totally know that your straight will lose 100% of the time?


Adam

Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
 

As Sklansky says choosing the right decision here has nothing to do with being a sucessful limit hold'em player

Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
 

I had one of these a few days ago. I flopped top pair and I knew the guy flopped a set when he c/r the flop. I married it, turned 2 pair and called him out like a little bitch so I could see exactly what I thought he had.

It really does irk me to pay it off when I know better. It sucks.

b

Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
 

This and tilt are by far my biggest leaks.

Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
 

I use to think just like this and thank god I don't think like this anymore.

The only thing wrong with this hand is how weakly you played it on the flop. I bet that flop, let them raise and then take it from there.

Close to 12 BB on the turn with perhaps 2 clean outs and 8 not so clean outs so if we weigh that down roughly inside my head (I'm not using any calculators since I'd have to do this live and it's good practice) I'd say I'd have 5 outs to be conservative which makes calling the turn a no-brainer.

I tell you something bro, I can't sleep at night when I fold hands like these on the turn to any sort of player (tight or otherwise.) Why, because I hate losing 1 BB or in this case possibly 2 BB, in a 12-15 BB pot. I don't care if the game is 4-8 or 80-160. I just don't. Pot size will dictate my decision and though I've really learned to isolate my reads down to the 90th percentile mark, it still doesn't warrant a fold here in this case.

I've had many better nights of sleep because I was willing to play stronger and sacrifice a potential BB here and there knowing quite well that I was fooked. If I lost so be it, and there were a good number of times I did to such cases where the guy did have a FH or worse quads, but I think back to all those times when the guy didn't and I won and I think back to those times and I feel good about myself. Those are the times you need to think about and not think about whether or not it's gonna cost you 1 or 2 BB. Think about "I think there's a good chance I might be able to win this pot" I know I always do now.

My two cents bro.

Lawrence

Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
 

I'm dealt 7 7 UTG and raise.

This is fine, alone as it is.


I've been doing a lot of opening in the past few hours and some of the players are starting to notice.

Add this to it and you are headed for a disaster in such a game. A limp might turn some heads..

As for the turn:

I can't imagine getting 15:1 that this is a big enough error to beat yourself up about. Your call here can't even matter too much really I would think.

You are beating yourslef up over not trusting your read and sometimes the math clouds the poker in you.

Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
 

77 UTG raise? What are you looking for like 3 others players to come along, that's not good. Either people are running real good or I'm not nearly hitting as many sets as I should be because 77 UTG from my stats in 6 max is breakeven and in full ring games is not even that

Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
 

There are tons of situations where you know the right play and then you make it, right? So what's so special about this situation, that makes you "know" the right play and still not do it?

The answer is simple: in this case the decision actually IS close. And you could be making a very big mistake if your read is off.

When you really know that a play is wrong and make it anyway, you are costing yourself money. But I think this is actually an error of not being sure the play is wrong. For instance, in your quick math at the table, did you really figure out exactly how sure you need to be of your read to make folding correct? And then did you compare that to your actual certainty? Because what I'm reading between your lines is that you aren't THAT confident in your read, despite your claims to the contrary.

Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
 

[ QUOTE ]
I flopped top pair and I knew the guy flopped a set when he c/r the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can tell when someone has a set because they c/r the flop??

Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I flopped top pair and I knew the guy flopped a set when he c/r the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can tell when someone has a set because they c/r the flop??

[/ QUOTE ]

This particular player, yes. No, it's not my default read by any means. Just in that instance.

b

Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
 

[ QUOTE ]
sometimes the math clouds the poker in you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Great quote.

Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
 

Im with Barron and GoT here. Given the range of hands, the pot, what u can make on the river if u do hit (or lose)...u pretty much have to fold here.

Nice posts from both of you IMO.

Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
 

Why wouldn't utg+1, noticing you're doing a lot of opening, cold-call with JJ-99 and then cr the flop? Does he have to have a boat on the turn? Even if he does, you still have 2 outs. You're implied odds are somewhat close to 22:1. Doesn't the possibility that you're straight outs are good make up for the deficit in implied odds? Don't the weak callers in the hand also make up for the poor immediate odds as well?

This is confusing. Are you that sure you only have two outs and that's it? Is it possible you KNOW you're drawing dead to quad fives?

Or is the problem that you have both utg+1 and the fp to worry about? And you strongly believe (know) one of them has you badly beat?

Please, someone educate me [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
 

[ QUOTE ]

This and tilt are by far my biggest leaks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Heya Baronzeus,

I'd just like to know just how GoT calling another bet on the turn in this particualr hand a big leak?

Thanks

Lawrence

Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
 

[ QUOTE ]
I've played in that game for a year and I can tell you that it's a loser. It's a winner for you yesterday, since they were all clowns (not the normal lineup), and you're from out of town.

[/ QUOTE ]

77 5 off the button I play as well.

Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

This and tilt are by far my biggest leaks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Heya Baronzeus,

I'd just like to know just how GoT calling another bet on the turn in this particualr hand a big leak?

Thanks

Lawrence

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he is talking about putting in bets when you know you should fold in general.

but I agree this exact situation can in no way be a big leak to anybodys game.

Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
 

[ QUOTE ]
I find myself rethinking the math and trying to find a way where I can be justified in calling here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you explain why the math says you shouldn't call here? It looks like a very easy call to me.

Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

This and tilt are by far my biggest leaks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Heya Baronzeus,

I'd just like to know just how GoT calling another bet on the turn in this particualr hand a big leak?

Thanks

Lawrence

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I'm not saying THIS is a big leak. This is clearly a marginal error, if that. I'm saying knowing the right move and not following my own judgment is a leak of mine.

Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
 

I have way too little stats, but I think most players would be advised to draw the line at 8-8 UTG in full ring-games, and actually I think 8-8 is closer to a fold than 7-7 is to a raise.

In soft games, one can probably open-limp sevens and sixes and possibly all pairs, even from UTG.

lars

Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
 

I realize this isn't the point of your post, but isn't "plays too tightly preflop" and "He hesitates and cold-calls, which a first for the session. Immediate thoughts were 44-88" contradictory ideas? I play pretty tightly preflop. I'm not sure if it could be characterized as too tight, but I don't cold call with 55..

I know you're a respected poster and earn a boatload of $$ playing this game, but this post really seems like bragging to me. Complaining that you didn't fold a hand with potential outs in a big pot.. Is that really that big of a mistake?

Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
 

[ QUOTE ]
This and tilt are by far my biggest leaks.

[/ QUOTE ]
Isn't the original post about tilt?

Anytime I make a play I know is incorrect, I am tilting.

Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
 

[ QUOTE ]
I realize this isn't the point of your post, but isn't "plays too tightly preflop" and "He hesitates and cold-calls, which a first for the session. Immediate thoughts were 44-88" contradictory ideas? I play pretty tightly preflop. I'm not sure if it could be characterized as too tight, but I don't cold call with 55..


[/ QUOTE ]

I thought the exact same thing when I read the original post. The flop play makes it clear that he has a set though.

[ QUOTE ]

I know you're a respected poster and earn a boatload of $$ playing this game, but this post really seems like bragging to me. Complaining that you didn't fold a hand with potential outs in a big pot.. Is that really that big of a mistake?

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, I disagree with everyone that thinks this is close. I think it is a pretty clear fold.

Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
 

[ QUOTE ]
I know you're a respected poster and earn a boatload of $$ playing this game, but this post really seems like bragging to me. Complaining that you didn't fold a hand with potential outs in a big pot.. Is that really that big of a mistake? [ QUOTE ]
Actually, I disagree with everyone that thinks this is close. I think it is a pretty clear fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

This is where that mantra thing that he refers to starts clouding the issue. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

I didn't see this as a bragging post. I see it as someone trying to up the level of their game a bit higher and not being satisfied with just ABC, by rote way of playing. Even if it is that close a decision. Nothing wrong with trying to reach a higher standard of play.

This is one reason I admire, and sometimes get inspired by, GoT's thinking. Because he seems to always be striving for that next level. Even if it looks trivial. Many would just be satisfied with the level he's at. He's not. I think that's kinda cool.

b

Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
 

bernie,
Would you really put the coldcaller on 44-88? Are these hands really playable in this situation? If so, how close is it?

Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
 

[ QUOTE ]
bernie,
Would you really put the coldcaller on 44-88? Are these hands really playable in this situation? If so, how close is it?

[/ QUOTE ]

you guys are missing a crucial piece of information when you say "he cold called an early raise w/ 44-88...i wouldn't do that, therefore its wrong." GoT expressly stated he was raising (opening) alot. therefore, when people see (even very tight people) a guy raising a lot, especially a young kid, they LOWER their playing requirements. in this case, it was pretty clear that he hesitated for a second b/c 44/55/66 is normally a fold for this guy. but when he called its clear he doesn't give GoT credit for much of anything and thinks hes just some agro kid.

i dont think those low pairs should be played for a raise in this spot though, but thats the villians error (not a huge one either), not GoT's

in any case, i still think the turn is "close" as in tenths of a percent, but lets not quibble. its a fold.

-Barron

Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I find myself rethinking the math and trying to find a way where I can be justified in calling here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you explain why the math says you shouldn't call here? It looks like a very easy call to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

do the math with the probability that villian has a set at 95%. that is the underestimate. using 5% of the straight outs + 4*3/7 (both 5s and 7s when villian has 44) + 2*3/7 (both sevens when villian has 66) + 0*1/7 (hero is dead to 55) we see that its STILL a fold getting about 15:1 + implied odds. best case scenario hero earns about 6 bets on the river from checkraising the bettor and callers assuming they dont fold AND call the c'r...thats alot of iffs. average implied odds here probably add 3 bets maybe 4 or 4.5 to the immediate pot odds. AND!!! this assumes that you FOLD when you hit a straight. if you DO NOT fold when you hit your straight, then you must 100% not call ever. this is why i made 95% villian set probability 100% because the value of those outs is actually negative (reverse implied odds) if you hit and plan to call.

its a fold. but again, a fairly close one, especially if you discount reverse implied odds by negating straight outs.

-Barron

Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
 

Given that you have never seen this guy coldcall before, don't you think it's a little early to be making huge laydowns based on your read of his hand?

Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
 

[ QUOTE ]
bernie,
Would you really put the coldcaller on 44-88? Are these hands really playable in this situation? If so, how close is it?

[/ QUOTE ]

It doesn't matter if I think it's playable. It matters if I think the opponent thinks they are playable in that situation.

He isn't c/r'ing an unmade hand here so overcards are out. He has a pocket pair. You have to look at his flop play a little. If he had just an overpair, he likely would've bet the flop if checked to, not c/r it. Thereby hoping the 'floorperson' will raise it so it might get overcards out. If he had a higher overpair, he might've 3 bet preflop, or at least bet the flop when checked to as mentioned above.

This was also a live game, so the 'way' the guy put in the c/r might also have given GoT an added clue to his hand.

Just some possibilities.

b

Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
 

95%... hmmmmmmmmmmm.

Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I flopped top pair and I knew the guy flopped a set when he c/r the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can tell when someone has a set because they c/r the flop??

[/ QUOTE ]

This particular player, yes. No, it's not my default read by any means. Just in that instance.

b

[/ QUOTE ]

Sissy got you again?