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-   -   River = chip-spewing? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=284494)

Baloosh 07-01-2005 04:40 PM

River = chip-spewing?
 
Table was typically LP. That's about it for reads. All comments appreciated.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.5.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls, Hero calls, CO (poster) checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls, CO calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero checks, CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO folds, Button calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (11.75 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls.

River: (14.75 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG folds, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 16.75 BB

Sinnister 07-01-2005 04:42 PM

Re: River = chip-spewing?
 
By calling with this preflop in mp3 yes you are chip spweing.

Next question?

davelin 07-01-2005 04:51 PM

Re: River = chip-spewing?
 
[ QUOTE ]
By calling with this preflop in mp3 yes you are chip spweing.

Next question?

[/ QUOTE ]

This limp is fine.

Baloosh 07-01-2005 05:05 PM

Re: River = chip-spewing?
 
[ QUOTE ]
By calling with this preflop in mp3 yes you are chip spweing.

Next question?

[/ QUOTE ]

With a poster and 2 callers already in, and a read on the table as typically LP... you think this is a -EV call?

davelin 07-01-2005 05:07 PM

Re: River = chip-spewing?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
By calling with this preflop in mp3 yes you are chip spweing.

Next question?

[/ QUOTE ]

With a poster and 2 callers already in, and a read on the table as typically LP... you think this is a -EV call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't pay attention to him

magates 07-01-2005 05:07 PM

Re: River = chip-spewing?
 
I would fold this PF, but my opinion is based more on SSH and ITH than personal experience.

I'm more curious about the raise on the flop: bottom pair/weak kicker with few clean outs. If a raise here is correct could someone please explain?

davelin 07-01-2005 05:11 PM

Re: River = chip-spewing?
 
Yeah, I hate the flop raise.

Baloosh 07-01-2005 05:19 PM

Re: River = chip-spewing?
 
[ QUOTE ]
I would fold this PF, but my opinion is based more on SSH and ITH than personal experience.

I'm more curious about the raise on the flop: bottom pair/weak kicker with few clean outs. If a raise here is correct could someone please explain?

[/ QUOTE ]

I had my total outs counted as 5... any 5 I have discounted at 2 outs, the remaining 6s as 1.5 outs, and 1.5 out for my BD flush draw. When it got to me, it was ~17:1 to call, so even a raise in that spot is (marginally neutral EV). Couldn't this be seen as the same thing as raising pre-flop with JTs, with the multi-way nature of this hand?

davelin 07-01-2005 05:20 PM

Re: River = chip-spewing?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would fold this PF, but my opinion is based more on SSH and ITH than personal experience.

I'm more curious about the raise on the flop: bottom pair/weak kicker with few clean outs. If a raise here is correct could someone please explain?

[/ QUOTE ]

I had my total outs counted as 5... any 5 I have discounted at 2 outs, the remaining 6s as 1.5 outs, and 1.5 out for my BD flush draw. When it got to me, it was ~17:1 to call, so even a raise in that spot is (marginally neutral EV). Couldn't this be seen as the same thing as raising pre-flop with JTs, with the multi-way nature of this hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Your equity isn't high enough to raise here.

Baloosh 07-01-2005 05:24 PM

Re: River = chip-spewing?
 
[ QUOTE ]


Your equity isn't high enough to raise here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh yeah... I also forgot about the gutshot to the ass-end of the straight. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Baloosh 07-01-2005 05:28 PM

Re: River = chip-spewing?
 
With 6 players on the flop, you don't think I have at least a 16.67% equity? They all checked, and the pre-flop raiser is the only guy who made, what could very well be, a continuation bet.

bozlax 07-01-2005 05:30 PM

Re: River = chip-spewing?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
By calling with this preflop in mp3 yes you are chip spweing.

Next question?

[/ QUOTE ]


With a poster and 2 callers already in, and a read on the table as typically LP... you think this is a -EV call?

[/ QUOTE ]


Three callers and a poster yet to play.

davelin 07-01-2005 05:32 PM

Re: River = chip-spewing?
 
[ QUOTE ]
With 6 players on the flop, you don't think I have at least a 16.67% equity? They all checked, and the pre-flop raiser is the only guy who made, what could very well be, a continuation bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope, all except your trip outs are tainted.

magates 07-01-2005 05:36 PM

Re: River = chip-spewing?
 
[ QUOTE ]
With 6 players on the flop, you don't think I have at least a 16.67% equity? They all checked, and the pre-flop raiser is the only guy who made, what could very well be, a continuation bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

You really only had 4 callers you could count on, no? Your raise made it 2 bets to the CO.

bozlax 07-01-2005 05:37 PM

Re: River = chip-spewing?
 
Ugh. I think the limp preflop is ok, as is the call of the raise, but I'm not in love with it, either.

The flop raise is spew. What did you think you were accomplishing with that? I also don't like the turn and river bets. If you insist on seeing a showdown with bottom pair, no kicker on a coordinated board where none of your redraws is to the nuts (or even near-nuts), you should be trying to do it as cheaply as possible.

I know, I know, maximize chance of winning the pot, blah blah, but you're not going to drive out overcards or anything else once you're 6 players to the flop in a raised pot.

GTSamIAm 07-01-2005 05:37 PM

Re: River = chip-spewing?
 
What is someone calling the river with that you beat? Busted flush draw? Someone is only calling with a bigger pair or better. I think flop raise is okay if you bet the turn and get a free showdown, which is highly unlikely. If you raise the flop, taking the free card sucks too. Call the flop. Call turn. Hope to improve.

PuckNPoker 07-01-2005 05:43 PM

Re: River = chip-spewing?
 
I think you are worried about getting value for your hand on the flop which is where (imho) the mistake lies. Bottom pair no kicker, big pot, draw heavy board. Many cards falling on the turn and river that hurt you. If you really want to increase your chance of winning, bet into the pf raiser and hope he raises to protect the hand (not that I see anyone folding here with any sort of pair or draw but people make bad folds all the time just as much as they make bad calls).

Since the pot is so big, I would call the flop bet and hope you improve. I definitely check the river through. I think you'd only be called by a better hand.

Baloosh 07-01-2005 05:47 PM

Re: River = chip-spewing?
 
[ QUOTE ]


I know, I know, maximize chance of winning the pot, blah blah, but you're not going to drive out overcards or anything else once you're 6 players to the flop in a raised pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was doing exactly what you said -- trying to maximize my chances in a big pot. I think that it's significant that, in the end, I was only called on the river bet by a single person. The chance to win that pot isn't worth 2BB at the minimum? Certainly, and perhaps I should have stated this at the beginning, in the face of any sort of resistance or play-back, I was going into check/call mode at best, and folding if I had to overcall.

Baloosh 07-01-2005 05:48 PM

Re: River = chip-spewing?
 
[ QUOTE ]
What is someone calling the river with that you beat? Busted flush draw? Someone is only calling with a bigger pair or better. I think flop raise is okay if you bet the turn and get a free showdown, which is highly unlikely. If you raise the flop, taking the free card sucks too. Call the flop. Call turn. Hope to improve.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think, in a raised pot like this, some people will find any excuse to call a single bet on the river. Ace high, King high. Hell even "JACK HIGH!" [/elix powers]

scotty34 07-01-2005 06:17 PM

Re: River = chip-spewing?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What is someone calling the river with that you beat? Busted flush draw? Someone is only calling with a bigger pair or better. I think flop raise is okay if you bet the turn and get a free showdown, which is highly unlikely. If you raise the flop, taking the free card sucks too. Call the flop. Call turn. Hope to improve.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think, in a raised pot like this, some people will find any excuse to call a single bet on the river. Ace high, King high. Hell even "JACK HIGH!" [/elix powers]

[/ QUOTE ]

Occasionally idiots do this yes, but certainly not anywhere close to often enough to make this a profitable bet. For the bet to be profitable, a worse hand is going to have to call you around 55% of the time or more. Not happening.

bozlax 07-01-2005 06:18 PM

Re: River = chip-spewing?
 
[ QUOTE ]
I was doing exactly what you said -- trying to maximize my chances in a big pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Problem is, c/r'ing this flop won't do that for you because it won't fold anybody.

[ QUOTE ]
I think that it's significant that, in the end, I was only called on the river bet by a single person.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not to your flop play, it isn't. And, it's good you had a plan, but any plan that keeps you betting in this situation seems like a bad one to me.

Since we've booked our ticket to Results-Oriented Land, though, what did the one person that called you flip over?

@bsolute_luck 07-01-2005 08:25 PM

Re: River = chip-spewing?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


I know, I know, maximize chance of winning the pot, blah blah, but you're not going to drive out overcards or anything else once you're 6 players to the flop in a raised pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was doing exactly what you said -- trying to maximize my chances in a big pot. I think that it's significant that, in the end, I was only called on the river bet by a single person. The chance to win that pot isn't worth 2BB at the minimum? Certainly, and perhaps I should have stated this at the beginning, in the face of any sort of resistance or play-back, I was going into check/call mode at best, and folding if I had to overcall.

[/ QUOTE ]

the only thing you maximized was the size of the pot. you weren't helping your case here at all. you think they'll call 1 bet, but suddenly fold because of your c/r? you're giving better odds for anyone to suck out on your already uber-vulnerable pair of 6s plus backdoors. [ QUOTE ]
I think that it's significant that, in the end, I was only called on the river bet by a single person.

[/ QUOTE ]

result-oriented. not long term +EV. plus you think having only 1 person calling you is an accomplishment? isn't so great when he has a 9. that isn't anything to cheer about really.

Baloosh 07-01-2005 08:29 PM

Re: River = chip-spewing?
 
[ QUOTE ]

the only thing you maximized was the size of the pot. you weren't helping your case here at all. you think they'll call 1 bet, but suddenly fold because of your c/r? you're giving better odds for anyone to suck out on your already uber-vulnerable pair of 6s plus backdoors.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yikes. Seems like I made at least a couple of errors on this one. Raising the flop and betting the river. Thanks to all for the comments.

Villain turned over ATo for Ace-high.

no1super2001 07-01-2005 09:01 PM

Re: River = chip-spewing?
 
First, do not call this hand in MP3. That is spewing.
Button must have been the only one paying attention to the board, responding to your raise on the fairly coordinated flop.

I think you have to let the river check through, you are probably only getting a call from a hand that beats you.

Rev. Good Will 07-01-2005 09:27 PM

Re: River = chip-spewing?
 
[ QUOTE ]
By calling with this preflop in mp3 yes you are chip spweing.

[/ QUOTE ]

and going with the OP's read:

[ QUOTE ]
Table was typically LP

[/ QUOTE ]


do you hate money or something?

Rev. Good Will 07-01-2005 09:40 PM

Re: River = chip-spewing?
 
I don't care what anybody says, I'm limping here all the time in LP on a loose/passive table.

What were you trying to do by c/r'ing the flop? I don't think BPSK, BDFD, and a gutshot is good enough to trap bets. Either Bet into the PF raiser if you want to knock out peeps, or check/call, and re-evaluate where you stand on the turn. I like the latter choice better.

I don't know how to feel about betting the turn, though based off the flop, I don't think button has an overpair, you have a crapload of cards to dodge for the river(9's, A-T overs, diamonds, your 5 outs suck). If you felt you had enough fold equity, betting is cool, though I'd probably check it.

I'd probably check the river too cause I'm going through my weak-tight phase. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

bozlax 07-02-2005 12:22 AM

Re: River = chip-spewing?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Villain turned over ATo for Ace-high.

[/ QUOTE ]

I knew it was coming. "I won the pot, so my play must've been right."

Congrats.

Baloosh 07-02-2005 12:57 PM

Re: River = chip-spewing?
 
[ QUOTE ]

I knew it was coming. "I won the pot, so my play must've been right."

Congrats.

[/ QUOTE ]

I never said that, and in fact have admitted in this thread that I misplayed the hand. But if you want to put words in my mouth, feel free.. I guess.

I do appreciate your (and everyone's) comments. I'm still learning...


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