Fold bottom set on the turn?
 

Party 5-10 NL.

Context--the villain in this hand seems solid... I haven't seen him get out of line, though he accumulated most of his chips before I arrived at the table, and I have never played with him before.

I am interested in advice on my play on the turn, in particular what do do after he comes back over the top. Obviously I thought I had the best hand when I re-raised, but when he comes back, I have to really question whether it is worth putting the rest of my stack in to find out whether I am ahead or way behind. He limped in early position, so I have to seriously consider whether he had a pocket pair (and hit) or maybe even 56s... He also could have AA.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $10 BB (9 handed) converter

Button ($1392)
SB (fish)/ ($210.25)
BB ($2519)
UTG ($1000)
UTG+1 (villain)/ ($2238.75)
MP1 ($1679)
Hero ($1506)
MP3 ($503)
CO ($1004)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 (villain)/ calls $10, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $10, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB (fish)/ completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($40) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">fish bets $10</font>, BB folds, villain calls $10, Hero calls $10.

Turn: ($70) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">fish bets $30</font>, <font color="#CC3333">villain raises to $75</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $250</font>, fish folds, <font color="#CC3333">villain raises to $2218.75 (All-In)</font>, Hero ???

Results later

Re: Fold bottom set on the turn?
 

Why did you call the flop?

Re: Fold bottom set on the turn?
 

Because I was closing the action for $10 and figured in the unlikely event a 4 came, I could win a big pot from the villain. (unfortunately, I did not foresee the action on the turn proceeding as it did)

I don't make a habit of continuing past the flop when I play a small PP and miss, but in this case I did.

Re: Fold bottom set on the turn?
 

Id personally have him on nuts....I muck. The min reraise is always something to take not of on the turn.

Re: Fold bottom set on the turn?
 

You make a super longshot call on the flop. you were hunting for 2 outs. why in the world did you call on this flop if you werent willing to play your hand to the end once you hit the 2 outer? your play makes absolutely no sense at all. there is no excuse not to pay this off if you made that call on the flop

Re: Fold bottom set on the turn?
 

I agree with everyone else, I fold the flop. You did have a backdoor flush draw, but that might not have even been good either.

When someone re-raises me like this, I can just hear Brunson's words in my head: "Never go broke in an unraised pot."

There's at least a decent chance you have the best hand with your set, but it wouldn't be hard for someone to have a better set or 5-6 for the straight. Villian's smallish turn bet is just screaming for a raise too.

I'm pretty tight in unraised pots, so I'd probably lay this down, kicking and screaming as the chips go to villian's stack.

Re: Fold bottom set on the turn?
 

I am more liberal with my calls than the average 2+2er (I just see too many posts suggesting folding middle set, KK pf etc) but even on this one I am with the masses. Fold.

He isn't 4-betting with a flush draw so he has 56, a higher set, or 2pr and I am not calling off my stack here on hopes that he has that unimproved 2pr.


As for the flop call. You are 47:2 to hit so you need to believe that you will make at least $175 on average when you hit your 4. (sometimes you will hit your 4 and sometimes you will win unimproved or with a rr straight or flush)


-Steve

Re: Fold bottom set on the turn?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I am more liberal with my calls than the average 2+2er (I just see too many posts suggesting folding middle set, KK pf etc) but even on this one I am with the masses. Fold.

He isn't 4-betting with a flush draw so he has 56, a higher set, or 2pr and I am not calling off my stack here on hopes that he has that unimproved 2pr.


As for the flop call. You are 47:2 to hit so you need to believe that you will make at least $175 on average when you hit your 4. (sometimes you will hit your 4 and sometimes you will win unimproved or with a rr straight or flush)


-Steve

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree. I think 56 is most likely, as a solid player is not slowplaying on this flop OOP.

Re: Fold bottom set on the turn?
 

[ QUOTE ]
why in the world did you call on this flop if you werent willing to play your hand to the end once you hit the 2 outer? your play makes absolutely no sense at all. there is no excuse not to pay this off if you made that call on the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it is pretty short-sighted to have such a "stick-to-your-guns" approach that you never change your plan, even after additional information presents itself. Obviously I planned on getting all my chips in if I hit, but after I saw bet, tiny-raise, re-raise, re-re-raise all-in after the micro raise, I gave the other guy credit for a big hand.

Re: Fold bottom set on the turn?
 

im sorry, i misread your board. i didnt even realize that your set could have dealt off a straight. my bad, i had a brain fart. that does change everything, because it completes a potential draw. in this case, you never, ever should have called on the flop. if your all your "outs" can complete a better hand from a potential draw for somebody else, its pretty much a rule--do not take a longshot draw. you never should have called on the flop. even if you had say, 33 and hitting yout 2 outs would make you the 4th nuts, its a super questoinable call on the flop. in this case, its much worse. you should never ever have called on the flop.

Re: Fold bottom set on the turn?
 

Thanks, but my question was not about the flop play, my question was about the turn, in particular, to call all-in or muck.

Re: Fold bottom set on the turn?
 

It looks like your screwed. In the absence of any other info about the villain I would like to think that I could make this fold. In the heat of battle I probably call.

Re: Fold bottom set on the turn?
 

it is the tendency of 2+2er's to go back to the point they prefer and say why did you play the black queens in the first place every one knows only the red ones win.

so on the turn i think you are looking at the nuts. if your man likes to slow play two pair or middle/bottom set or the game has been loose aggressive so that he might have limped in with QQ. basically he is either getting out of line or he has you in bad shape drawing to 10 outs or much less. the board doesnt seem like one to slowplay anything except QQ. micro bets from the fish muddy the water a bit....i think i would find a fold here. yup i think its the nuts. i hope he screwed up the flop and you snapped 78, AA, or KK to pieces though. good hand to post
jason

Results
 

I used my entire clock and finally determined I probably was up against an overset or the nuts, so I mucked. Against another player (i.e. a maniac) I would have called, but based on the information I had, I had to assume this player was reasonable, so a fold was in order.

Re: Fold bottom set on the turn?
 

I agree w/ others that villain's push smells an awful lot like a straight trying to shut out flush draws/sets/two pair hands looking to improve on the river . . . Fold, me thinks.

Re: Fold bottom set on the turn?
 

Muck that trash.