Why favorites are on a roll in NFL \'05
 

Thoughts? Long-overdue correction? Short-term aberration?

Re: Why favorites are on a roll in NFL \'05
 

Coming into today I had the year at 59 favs, 53 dogs, 1 pick and 2 pushes. Hardly an aberration.

Dogs did take a beating today though, particularly home dogs. Well, the masses win and the books lose sometimes. Give it time and things will even out. Nine weeks is too small a sample size.

Re: Why favorites are on a roll in NFL \'05
 

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Coming into today I had the year at 59 favs, 53 dogs, 1 pick and 2 pushes. Hardly an aberration.

Dogs did take a beating today though, particularly home dogs. Well, the masses win and the books lose sometimes. Give it time and things will even out. Nine weeks is too small a sample size.

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I had faves at 61-51-3 going into today, with 1 pick'em. I do think 9 weeks is too small a sample and hope you're right kdog.

Re: Why favorites are on a roll in NFL \'05
 

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Thoughts? Long-overdue correction? Short-term aberration?

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When you're pushing small edges as in sports betting, 9 weeks is not much of a sample size. I do not believe any favored team lost today, and most covered. This week just looked to go to be true for us that primarily fade the public. The BSPs got their revenge though.

Re: Why favorites are on a roll in NFL \'05
 

Just some bad luck for the dogs. The record ATS for favorites is statistically not that unlikely.

Re: Why favorites are on a roll in NFL \'05
 

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Just some bad luck for the dogs. The record ATS for favorites is statistically not that unlikely.

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Meanwhile, I am getting absolutely killed. I'm more or less at a loss right now.

Re: Why favorites are on a roll in NFL \'05
 

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Just some bad luck for the dogs. The record ATS for favorites is statistically not that unlikely.

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Meanwhile, I am getting absolutely killed. I'm more or less at a loss right now.

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I feel your pain. Lousy year for me too, so far.

Re: Why favorites are on a roll in NFL \'05
 

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Thoughts? Long-overdue correction? Short-term aberration?

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you're just way, way overdue on being a square

join the party

Re: Why favorites are on a roll in NFL \'05
 

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Thoughts? Long-overdue correction? Short-term aberration?

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you're just way, way overdue on being a square

join the party

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[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I've bet one road fave all year -- Cinci -3 at the Bears. Of course it won...along with 2 of every 3 other road faves in 2005. ~puke~

Re: Why favorites are on a roll in NFL \'05
 

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Short-term aberration?

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Doesn't seem nearly as likely anymore.

Re: Why favorites are on a roll in NFL \'05
 

111-76, incredible. It would've even been hard for dogs to go 111-76 in most stretches over the last 15 years.

Re: Why favorites are on a roll in NFL \'05
 

Its an interesting question. Has there been an evolution of parity in the NFL in the last two years, culminating in a peak this year, which has served to change some of the fundamental assumptions we follow? Does it warrant an evolution in handicapping methodologies?

I've been pleased as hell my system is running in the green this year, albeit barely. Game of the Week running strong as usual. I haven't yet made any adjustments to the system, but it has been something I've been contemplating (making a tweak to my methodology, and running both systems side-by-side for the rest of the year to compare results). I've been looking at an algorythm for the Colts alone... [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Re: Why favorites are on a roll in NFL \'05
 

The great thing about free markets is that they adjust.

Re: Why favorites are on a roll in NFL \'05
 

I guess it's mildly comforting I'm not the only one getting reamed here...

Re: Why favorites are on a roll in NFL \'05
 

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you're just way, way overdue on being a square

join the party

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there's still time [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

always fun to watch the stat rats scratch their heads

Re: Why favorites are on a roll in NFL \'05
 

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I've been looking at an algorythm for the Colts alone... [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

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Here is an algorithm:

If (team==Colts and spread>-100) {
PickColts = true
}

Re: Why favorites are on a roll in NFL \'05
 

Have you been spying on me? That's almost identical to what i've got...

Re: Why favorites are on a roll in NFL \'05
 

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I've been looking at an algorythm for the Colts alone... [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

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Here is an algorithm:

If (team==Colts and spread>-100) {
PickColts = true
}

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lol, Colts_wins++;

Re: Why favorites are on a roll in NFL \'05
 

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you're just way, way overdue on being a square

join the party

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there's still time [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]


always fun to watch the stat rats scratch their heads

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I do pick faves but at nowhere near the clip I do dogs. My system adapts but this correction is really phenomenal. I applaud anyone with a shred of analytic know-how who's doing well this year.

Re: Why favorites are on a roll in NFL \'05
 

hey scott i cant get on your web page whats up?

Re: Why favorites are on a roll in NFL \'05
 

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hey scott i cant get on your web page whats up?

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can't get into it either, Peter, definitely down for the moment.

Re: Why favorites are on a roll in NFL \'05
 

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111-76, incredible. It would've even been hard for dogs to go 111-76 in most stretches over the last 15 years.




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And with the Eagles going down tonight that puts home dogs at 19-38. A blistering 33%. Who'd have ever thought road favorites would be the most profitable subset in an NFL season?

Re: Why favorites are on a roll in NFL \'05
 

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111-76, incredible. It would've even been hard for dogs to go 111-76 in most stretches over the last 15 years.




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And with the Eagles going down tonight that puts home dogs at 19-38. A blistering 33%. Who'd have ever thought road favorites would be the most profitable subset in an NFL season?

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I check the lines every week because I'm in a betting league. We select 8 games a week against the line and each pick is given a designated point value (2 picks worth 4 points, 2 picks worth 3 points, etc) The perfect score is 20. There are 30 players! Traditionally the guys in this league prefer favorites (go figure). This season has been sick! This week alone there were 3 guys with perfect scores of 20 and 4 with 19. I've been telling my buddy for the last 3 weeks that I can't get over how this has been a bettor's year for once. Anyway, this is my first time in this forum and I was looking to see if this was a popular opinion, sure enough I came across this thread.

I no longer bet individual games, let's just say I had to sell my baseball card collection to square up w/ my bookie sometime ago, but in the last 20 years I have never seen it this good for the "favorite" population.

Re: Why favorites are on a roll in NFL \'05
 

Some insightful comments in a thread from another forum from someone (like many) who has had a rough go this year.

Linky

Scroll down to Michelangelo's long response for some great comments if you don't care to read the entire thread.

Re: Why favorites are on a roll in NFL \'05
 

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Some insightful comments in a thread from another forum from someone (like many) who has had a rough go this year.

Linky

Scroll down to Michelangelo's long response for some great comments if you don't care to read the entire thread.

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It's an interesting post with a fine theory but because online and Vegas books use the same numbers, it doesn't explain why Vegas oddsmaskers haven't shifted their lines to stop their hemmoraging as they still deal predominantly to "squares". What needs to be determined isn't a political count of how many people favor what on wagerline but a weighted count of how much money is on either side, the perceived sharp and square sides. This will determine once and for all whether and how online and Vegas books are staying afloat. I'm not sure I buy this unless Vegas and offshore actually use different numbers.

Re: Why favorites are on a roll in NFL \'05
 

"A byproduct of this strategy for him is that he is bankrupting the local books who have many more Joe Publics"

Wow, this is spot on! Thanks for the link.

Re: Why favorites are on a roll in NFL \'05
 

According to my system, the lines are simply being set too low this year.

Last year, my system (which starts at Week 6) picked 86 Favorites and 88 Underdogs, with a win rate of 58.5%.

This season, the exact same system has picked 82 Favorites and only 52 Underdogs -- just 39%. It's win-rate this season has been 55.7%. Unfortunately for me, the system is doing great on games for which it returns a weak opinion, and just breaking even on other games (a problem it didn't have least year), so my bankroll is just treading water.


Anyway, my point is that this doesn't look like a random fluctuation from my perspective. I have no idea why the lines aren't being set high enough this year, but I don't think it's just a matter of flipping a coin and having it come up tails an unually large number of times.

Edit: FWIW, my system picks 9 favorites and 7 underdogs this week. It's weakest pick is Tennessee -6.5, so that's apparently my lock of the week.

Second Edit: I forgot to mention that the above numbers for last year don't include 9 games from Weeks 16 and 17 in which one team had nothing to play for and was resting its starters.

Re: Why favorites are on a roll in NFL \'05
 

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Long-overdue correction?

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No.

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Short-term aberration?

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Yes.

That said I still think NFL football is basically unbeatable over the long term. But when the suckers start winning it makes especially painful. I think there are lots of better sports betting opportunities than NFL football will ever offer yet for some reason I will never understand it is the most popular form of sports betting. That's why I only play it for entertainment value and never risk anything I would ever notice on it.

Re: Why favorites are on a roll in NFL \'05
 

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Long-overdue correction?

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No.

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Short-term aberration?

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Yes.

That said I still think NFL football is basically unbeatable over the long term. But when the suckers start winning it makes especially painful. I think there are lots of better sports betting opportunities than NFL football will ever offer yet for some reason I will never understand it is the most popular form of sports betting. That's why I only play it for entertainment value and never risk anything I would ever notice on it.

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I'm getting my arse handed to me this year but I'm still way up over the last 10 years. Other sports could offer better opps but I haven't put my nose to the grindstone with those like I have the NFL.

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Unfortunately for me, the system is doing great on games for which it returns a weak opinion

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I'm actually noticing the same thing. My "almost warrant a unit" games are 9-3 over the last three weeks and 3-0 this last week. I know its a small sample size, but I can't look back farther from work. I'm going to pull the data when i get back from Vegas next week and maybe there's some value to be had in the last few weeks adding one-unit plays to some of these plays identified as marginal values.

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"I'm getting my arse handed to me this year but I'm still way up over the last 10 years."

I'm not saying that the ultimate top 1-2% of NFL bettors can't beat it long term. And by long term I mean over several seasons. But I have my doubts anyone but the cream of the cream could do it. The game is too heavily bet and teams change too much from year to year let alone week to week.

I think if you plan to bet sports that the NFL is the toughest nut to crack because it is basically random.

Re: Why favorites are on a roll in NFL \'05
 

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"I'm getting my arse handed to me this year but I'm still way up over the last 10 years."

I'm not saying that the ultimate top 1-2% of NFL bettors can't beat it long term. And by long term I mean over several seasons. But I have my doubts anyone but the cream of the cream could do it. The game is too heavily bet and teams change too much from year to year let alone week to week.

I think if you plan to bet sports that the NFL is the toughest nut to crack because it is basically random.

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Even though I'm having a bad year, I still hold the firm belief that it is an easier nut to crack simply because the sport is heavily bet by so many amateurs.

Re: Why favorites are on a roll in NFL \'05
 

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heavily bet

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I think this sword cuts both ways. Heavily bet means that the lines are typically correct and profit in sports betting comes from finding "incorrect" lines. With only 16 games per week and per team per season there isn't a lot of opportunity to uncover real gems. I think the randomness of it when lines are applied decreases the possible oppotunities significantly.

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heavily bet

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I think this sword cuts both ways. Heavily bet means that the lines are typically correct and profit in sports betting comes from finding "incorrect" lines. With only 16 games per week and per team per season there isn't a lot of opportunity to uncover real gems. I think the randomness of it when lines are applied decreases the possible oppotunities significantly.

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This would make sense Mr. B except the house is such a large participant in the NFL betmaking market. They don't set up lines to collect 50/50 on each side, they often stake a position of their own and are more frequently than not correct ('05 notwithstanding). I have some doubt that this phenomenon occurs anywhere close on even a quantity basis in baseball, let alone a percentage basis. This isn't to say winning at the NFL is easier, just the fact that it's heavily bet by amateurs and frequently in the same manner plays a very big role in finding good bargains in the NFL (again '05 notwithstanding).

Re: Why favorites are on a roll in NFL \'05
 

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They don't set up lines to collect 50/50 on each side, they often stake a position

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I hear this a lot and I don't believe a word of it. They make money on juice and want to do ANYTHING but gamble. I know a lot of you think they want a side but I find those arguments to be ludicrous.

Re: Why favorites are on a roll in NFL \'05
 

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They don't set up lines to collect 50/50 on each side, they often stake a position

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I hear this a lot and I don't believe a word of it. They make money on juice and want to do ANYTHING but gamble. I know a lot of you think they want a side but I find those arguments to be ludicrous.

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It's not ludicrous and there is little doubt that this occurs. This doesn't mean the house hits at any higher than 52-53% long-term but they do in fact win by taking sides and thus are participants in the market.

Edit: note I am only talking about pointspreads, not totals or exotics.

Re: Why favorites are on a roll in NFL \'05
 

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They don't set up lines to collect 50/50 on each side, they often stake a position

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I hear this a lot and I don't believe a word of it. They make money on juice and want to do ANYTHING but gamble. I know a lot of you think they want a side but I find those arguments to be ludicrous.

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I agree with Mr.Baseball. Why would a casino want a side? Granted they will make a lot mfor money when their side wins and the public is betting the other side but what if they lose? I believe casinos want exactly even money on both sides tto ensure they always collect the juice and never risk a lot of money.

Re: Why favorites are on a roll in NFL \'05
 

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They don't set up lines to collect 50/50 on each side, they often stake a position

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I hear this a lot and I don't believe a word of it. They make money on juice and want to do ANYTHING but gamble. I know a lot of you think they want a side but I find those arguments to be ludicrous.

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I agree with Mr.Baseball. Why would a casino want a side? Granted they will make a lot mfor money when their side wins and the public is betting the other side but what if they lose? I believe casinos want exactly even money on both sides tto ensure they always collect the juice and never risk a lot of money.

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Well I agree you would think this but that's just not the way it works. And also it's not on every game, I don't want to give that impression.

Re: Why favorites are on a roll in NFL \'05
 

Ultimately we're all just throwing darts here, because anyone short of a sportsbook exec can't speak authoritatively on this subject. But I believe what I've seen written before, by some pretty authoritiative sources:

the short of it, as has been stated many times on here before, is that the house would LOVE 50-50 action if it could guarantee that. But its never going to reliably get 50-50 action so the house has to try to take a profitable position.

Re: Why favorites are on a roll in NFL \'05
 

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Ultimately we're all just throwing darts here, because anyone short of a sportsbook exec can't speak authoritatively on this subject. But I believe what I've seen written before, by some pretty authoritiative sources:

the short of it, as has been stated many times on here before, is that the house would LOVE 50-50 action if it could guarantee that. But its never going to reliably get 50-50 action so the house has to try to take a profitable position.

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here's an insightful thread.