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-   -   Flopped da' nuts - how to get value? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=370127)

TheWorstPlayer 11-02-2005 01:42 AM

Flopped da\' nuts - how to get value?
 
Party Poker (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

2/4 NL: Effective stacks $420.

Preflop: TWP is MP with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, TWP calls, BN calls, SB folds, BB checks.

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font> ($18)
BB checks, UTG checks, TWP bets $8, BN raises to $25, BB folds, UTG folds, TWP...?

BN is the one of the biggest rocks in these games. Danimal8 for those who play skins 2/4 6max. What's my line for the rest of the hand (depending on turn/river cards potentially)? And was $8 good initially?

DoomSlice 11-02-2005 01:46 AM

Re: Flopped da\' nuts - how to get value?
 
I just call here and then lead weak again if the board doesn't pair.

j0wlev 11-02-2005 01:48 AM

Re: Flopped da\' nuts - how to get value?
 
Call and c/r the turn.

TheWorstPlayer 11-02-2005 01:49 AM

Re: Flopped da\' nuts - how to get value?
 
What if the board does pair?

11-02-2005 01:49 AM

Re: Flopped da\' nuts - how to get value?
 
If he's a huge rock I wouldn't worry about trying to get value against his one pair, I 3-bet the flop and hope he's got a set/two pair

$8? If that's your standard bet in this situation, then ok. Just keep in consinstent. I prefer minimum 2/3 pot though.

DoomSlice 11-02-2005 01:56 AM

Re: Flopped da\' nuts - how to get value?
 
Call down.

orange 11-02-2005 02:04 AM

Re: Flopped da\' nuts - how to get value?
 
I like stop n go here. I think c/r allows button to get away from his hand too easily. I call and 3/4 pot a blank turn.

If the board pairs, I think I go into either c/c or c/f mode. If this guy is a rock, I put him on 77 or 88.

I usually lead the flop harder, unless you were inducing a raise...?

PoBoy321 11-02-2005 02:04 AM

Re: Flopped da\' nuts - how to get value?
 
I'd lead more on the flop. It's not like he's doing this with a draw, so I'm not worried about him checking behind on the turn. I'd call here, check/raise a non-paired turn, bet/fold if the turn pairs the board.

j0wlev 11-02-2005 02:11 AM

Re: Flopped da\' nuts - how to get value?
 
I think Villian's hand range is AJ, KJ, JTs, 88, or 77. 3-betting gets a TPTK like hand to fold and a set to call/fold to non-board pairing turn.

If we 3-bet it'd be probably between $65~$70. So we lose 1 time in 6.

AJ and KJ contribute $25 and fold to our raise.
A set contributes $75 to the pot and folds the turn when it doesnt pair.

So lets say he has a set 2 outta 10 times and TPTK the rest of the time.

3-betting pushes a hand that has to hit runner to win out and entices a hand that will stack us to call.

If we call the flop raise and let the Villian pot the turn we will win much more from the TPTK type hands and get a set to commit when he has less a chance of beating us.

I call the flop raise and c/r the turn probably all-in.

11-02-2005 03:37 AM

Re: Flopped da\' nuts - how to get value?
 
[ QUOTE ]
a set to call/fold to non-board pairing turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

For reals? I don't see a set folding the turn

[ QUOTE ]
If we call the flop raise and let the Villian pot the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

Eh, maybe he bets the turn, but probably not pot. Good luck trying to win anything more than a turn bet off AJ, if that

j0wlev 11-02-2005 03:50 AM

Re: Flopped da\' nuts - how to get value?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
a set to call/fold to non-board pairing turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

For reals? I don't see a set folding the turn

[ QUOTE ]
If we call the flop raise and let the Villian pot the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

Eh, maybe he bets the turn, but probably not pot. Good luck trying to win anything more than a turn bet off AJ, if that

[/ QUOTE ]



I believe if the player is a rock like described, a set folds the turn to 2/3s bet.

FreakDaddy 11-02-2005 03:51 AM

Re: Flopped da\' nuts - how to get value?
 
Without position I re-raise here. If he's truly a rock then he likely has trips and you'll get it in fairly quick here.

Go_Blue88 11-02-2005 04:11 AM

Re: Flopped da\' nuts - how to get value?
 
Heh, if you raised p/f this would have been an awesome spot.

A possible hand range for Villian is 77, 88, 78, and KJ.

Cards that will kill your action/you don't want to see on the turn: 9, 7, 8, J, 10. So, that's about 15 cards that would suck.

I'm not sure what range he thinks you limp with, nor your image, but I feel like no matter what line you take he'll suspect a big hand (a set or straight). Perhaps the optimal and most deceiving play is to reraise the flop; maybe he'll convince himself that you wouldn't play a straight that fast. I think a c/r on the turn shows too much strength, and c/c flop, lead turn might slow him down. By reraising the flop you might be able to keep him guessing; if he does have a set I think that this is the best line to get him to call your value bets. Also, this line eliminates some of those scare cards b/c it defines his hand more for you while still keeping him guessing at yours.

edge 11-02-2005 04:51 AM

Re: Flopped da\' nuts - how to get value?
 
Flopped straights are cool, but very vulnerable to being outdrawn. I like to play them extremely fast and would definitely reraise here. I'd also bet 15 on the flop to allow for my 3-bet to be that much larger.

NLSoldier 11-02-2005 04:58 AM

Re: Flopped da\' nuts - how to get value?
 
This talk of villian folding a set on the turn seems insane to me. Does this actually ever happen?

11-02-2005 05:02 AM

Re: Flopped da\' nuts - how to get value?
 
[ QUOTE ]
This talk of villian folding a set on the turn seems insane to me. Does this actually ever happen?

[/ QUOTE ]

I am saying absolutely never. But others seem to think so

Toyboy 11-02-2005 05:08 AM

Re: Flopped da\' nuts - how to get value?
 
[ QUOTE ]
If he's a huge rock I wouldn't worry about trying to get value against his one pair, I 3-bet the flop and hope he's got a set/two pair

$8? If that's your standard bet in this situation, then ok. Just keep in consinstent. I prefer minimum 2/3 pot though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Couldnt agree more. I think it's a crime not to 3-bet this flop; you do not want to give a free card with all those scare cards out there and you want to build the pot. He likes his hand, and he would likely push (or raise hard) trips and possibly 2 pair (?) if re-raised.

Don't know his hand range, but I'd say JJ, 88, 77 are very likely looking at pf action and your description of him as a rock.
Most rocks would re-raise AA, KK, QQ preflop? And if he holds one of those I assume you're not getting any more money in on the turn anyway unless he improves. Therefore might as well raise flop.

~$80 pot after flop with $400 behind each is not enough for my taste in this situation

And yeah, unless this is your standard flop bet then bet more than $8.

Malachii 11-02-2005 05:09 AM

Re: Flopped da\' nuts - how to get value?
 
Make a potsized 3 bet. There are a lot of cards that kill your action, and you don't want to play guessing games if the board pairs. Play this fast on the flop.

Edit: And bet more on flop too.

Phoenix1010 11-02-2005 05:12 AM

Re: Flopped da\' nuts - how to get value?
 
[ QUOTE ]
This talk of villian folding a set on the turn seems insane to me. Does this actually ever happen?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not happening here heads up, unless the turn is a nine or a ten. If he has 77 and hero has been playing tight lately (unlikely), there's a sliiight chance. If he has 88, he's going to the felt, no questions asked.

xorbie 11-02-2005 05:21 AM

Re: Flopped da\' nuts - how to get value?
 
Push.

Phoenix1010 11-02-2005 05:58 AM

Re: Flopped da\' nuts - how to get value?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If he's a huge rock I wouldn't worry about trying to get value against his one pair, I 3-bet the flop and hope he's got a set/two pair

$8? If that's your standard bet in this situation, then ok. Just keep in consinstent. I prefer minimum 2/3 pot though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Couldnt agree more. I think it's a crime not to 3-bet this flop; you do not want to give a free card with all those scare cards out there and you want to build the pot. He likes his hand, and he would likely push (or raise hard) trips and possibly 2 pair (?) if re-raised.

Don't know his hand range, but I'd say JJ, 88, 77 are very likely looking at pf action and your description of him as a rock.
Most rocks would re-raise AA, KK, QQ preflop? And if he holds one of those I assume you're not getting any more money in on the turn anyway unless he improves. Therefore might as well raise flop.

~$80 pot after flop with $400 behind each is not enough for my taste in this situation

And yeah, unless this is your standard flop bet then bet more than $8.

[/ QUOTE ]

No raise preflop, so can't reraise. This also makes JJ unlikely. Do rocks limp JJ on the button, I'm not really sure if that goes under the rock section? I think people aren't giving 87s enough consideration, but it doesn't matter much because he'll likely play that like AJ on this board. If he doesn't have a set, we don't have to worry too much about making the wrong decision later anyway since only a jack falling will potentially make him overplay a non-boat.

I think this hand is important, since these kinds of situations come up often, When you have a monster and you know your opponent has a second best hand that he will pay off with AND has a live draw that he will see to the end. Of course any money that goes into the pot when you're way ahead is in your favor, but since you know what they're drawing to you'd like to allow yourself the ability to lose the minimum when they hit and extract the maximum when they miss. This is all a matter of whether or not you think you can make up for the pot building that a flop reraise would give you if you wait until later in the hand. This is also tempered by the possibility of a scary turn card, in this case a T or 9, slowing down your action (this factor is probably canceled out by the extra value you get when your opponent doesn't have a set and pays out a bit more than if you reraise). In this spot it doesn't look like the size of the pot will be very different whether you decide to reraise the flop or check raise the turn. The only big difference is that you will be able to exploit a much larger edge by tying him to the pot with only one card to come than you would have by tying yourself to the pot with two.

Of course, if there's even a slight possibility that your opponent won't pay off a turn check raise/river lead, then you should be jamming the flop as much as possible.

Malachii 11-02-2005 06:47 AM

Re: Flopped da\' nuts - how to get value?
 
Push for ~400 more into like a 50$ pot after betting 8$ into an $18 pot on the flop?

xorbie 11-02-2005 07:00 AM

Re: Flopped da\' nuts - how to get value?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Push for ~400 more into like a 50$ pot after betting 8$ into an $18 pot on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah that sounds about right.

steaknshake925 11-02-2005 07:47 AM

Re: Flopped da\' nuts - how to get value?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Push.

[/ QUOTE ]

this was my first instinct as well

11-02-2005 07:50 AM

Re: Flopped da\' nuts - how to get value?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Push for ~400 more into like a 50$ pot after betting 8$ into an $18 pot on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah that sounds about right.

[/ QUOTE ]

The more I think about it, the more I start liking this. You can almost hear him thinking "no way he does that with flopped nuts/top set"

steaknshake925 11-02-2005 07:59 AM

Re: Flopped da\' nuts - how to get value?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Quote:

Quote:
Push for ~400 more into like a 50$ pot after betting 8$ into an $18 pot on the flop?



Yeah that sounds about right.



The more I think about it, the more I start liking this. You can almost hear him thinking "no way he does that with flopped nuts/top set"

[/ QUOTE ]

we dont have to think about what he's thinking. villain is a rock, he raised on that board which means hes got something really good, so why even waste time analyzing just stick the money in.

xorbie 11-02-2005 08:29 AM

Re: Flopped da\' nuts - how to get value?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Push for ~400 more into like a 50$ pot after betting 8$ into an $18 pot on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah that sounds about right.

[/ QUOTE ]

The more I think about it, the more I start liking this. You can almost hear him thinking "no way he does that with flopped nuts/top set"

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, think about it. Villain is a rock. But he's not such a rock that he's limping QQ here (I hope not), so his hand range on this raise looks to me to be 9T, 77, 88, JJ, 78. He doesn't have J7 or J8 probably, and for 78 there are a lot of really ugly turn cards (not to mentin that rock isn't backing hist stack with bottom two pair no matter how we play it). If he has a set, just put it in.

PinkSteel 11-02-2005 09:01 AM

Re: Flopped da\' nuts - how to get value?
 
He's flipped his cards up: he has a set (or you're chopping). So you should be able to get maximum value by outplaying him street-for-street.

It's true there are a ton of cards you don't want to see, and 3-betting the flop would be the default play, but you'll probably slow him down if you do, and you need for him to be doing the betting if you want his whole stack.

I'd call the flop raise, check the turn. If he has a set he HAS to keep betting. If the board pairs, you're gone. If it doesn't, call his turn bet. River non-pair, checkraise all-in.

This line forsakes the bird-in-hand for the two-in-bush, but since you know his cards I think playing him on each street is greater EV.

11-02-2005 09:18 AM

Re: Flopped da\' nuts - how to get value?
 
Suppose you know he has a set, and you know how he's gonna play it, I still don't like this because ~50% of the time the board will either be paired or show a 4-straight by the river

and if by "slow him down" you mean he will call off his stack instead of betting, then yes, I agree

4_2_it 11-02-2005 09:30 AM

Re: Flopped da\' nuts - how to get value?
 
Play that straight fast. I would re-rasie the flop $75 more to make it look like a weak attempt to steal the rock's money. If he pushes back, all-in. Non-pairing turn card I'm puuuuushing it in.

PinkSteel 11-02-2005 09:39 AM

Re: Flopped da\' nuts - how to get value?
 
I know it's a riskier approach, but given the stack sizes I think it's justified. If you take the lead to try to get his stack in, you're going to have to either push the flop, or do something like raise it to $100, then 1/2 pot both turn and river to get him all-in. If this guy is the rock TWP says he is, and you take either of these lines, I think he's going to get verrrry suspicious.

There's a percentage chance he calls a flop push; we don't know what that is. There's also a percentage chance that, if you play on, turn and river cards kill you; I agree that 50% by the river is a good estimate (I got 35% by the river just for board pairing). So you can argue about the chances either way.

But what tips it for me is that we basically KNOW villain's cards, so we should be able to add value by outplaying him.

Ghazban 11-02-2005 09:43 AM

Re: Flopped da\' nuts - how to get value?
 
[ QUOTE ]
But what tips it for me is that we basically KNOW villain's cards, so we should be able to add value by outplaying him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Outplaying him can mean getting him to stick it in on the flop as a 2:1 dog

mgsimpleton 11-02-2005 10:27 AM

Re: Flopped da\' nuts - how to get value?
 
[ QUOTE ]

The more I think about it, the more I start liking this. You can almost hear him thinking "no way he does that with flopped nuts/top set"

[/ QUOTE ]

whoa. down boy.

his thought process. "no way would he do this with a flopped straight or a set! he must have a flush draw... er... a um straight... draw... or er uh A high!!! yes he must have A high!"

seriously, pushing sucks. i also hate reraisng because it screams nuts but given these pitiful bets (you bet 4/9 pot and villain raises uh even less? wtf?).

bet more on the flop. what would you bet with a J planning on taking it down/folding to a raise, youŽd bet like 15 right? so bet that. then he can make a real raise. betting 8 then waking up is like holding a flashing neon sign that says nuts above your head.

and i think it dpeends on the guy here, but a set isn't that hard to fold if you 3 bet the flop then push the turn hard. but that comes down to a read. either way you should use the installation plan because usually they'll "call to pair the board" then when the pot is laying trhem 3 to 1 after the river and the board is still unpaired they call anyway.

TheWorstPlayer 11-02-2005 10:51 AM

Re: Flopped da\' nuts - how to get value?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

The more I think about it, the more I start liking this. You can almost hear him thinking "no way he does that with flopped nuts/top set"

[/ QUOTE ]

whoa. down boy.

his thought process. "no way would he do this with a flopped straight or a set! he must have a flush draw... er... a um straight... draw... or er uh A high!!! yes he must have A high!"

seriously, pushing sucks. i also hate reraisng because it screams nuts but given these pitiful bets (you bet 4/9 pot and villain raises uh even less? wtf?).

bet more on the flop. what would you bet with a J planning on taking it down/folding to a raise, youŽd bet like 15 right? so bet that. then he can make a real raise. betting 8 then waking up is like holding a flashing neon sign that says nuts above your head.

and i think it dpeends on the guy here, but a set isn't that hard to fold if you 3 bet the flop then push the turn hard. but that comes down to a read. either way you should use the installation plan because usually they'll "call to pair the board" then when the pot is laying trhem 3 to 1 after the river and the board is still unpaired they call anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree basically 100% with this post (and a lot of others have said it, too.) Betting $8 was the most retarded amount to bet. Now if I 3-bet it just SCREAMS nuts. I should have just bet pot. Then he could make a bigger raise, and I could either push it in or wait to c/r turn a-i or lead turn or whatever. But I TOTALLY screwed myself with my moronic flop bet. Anyways, I 3-bet to 80 or something and he goes '9T? That's what you're telling me?' and I said nothing and then he folded. I don't know what he folded, obviously. Most likely AJ or something like that. Maybe bottom two. Yes, he's weak. But my flop bet really sucked.

mgsimpleton 11-02-2005 10:58 AM

Re: Flopped da\' nuts - how to get value?
 
oh one more thing. T9s is pretty. raise preflop.

fuzzbox 11-02-2005 10:59 AM

Re: Flopped da\' nuts - how to get value?
 
I dont know about you lot, but Im always wary of the man that bets weak, and then either calls or 3-bets a raise.

Raise pf :-).
Bet pot on the flop, and hope Mr. Rocko hit his hand.

Failing that, I pot the flop, and if rocko calls/raises then I can call his raise and check/raise the turn, or call the raise and lead the turn. Both are good teams.

I like pot much better than weak lead. Weak lead often lets em off cheap when you subsequently show interest by calling a raise/3-betting a raise.

Given how its played, call and bet 2/3rds pot on the turn.

Hattifnatt 11-02-2005 11:00 AM

Re: Flopped da\' nuts - how to get value?
 
I bet $15-18 on the flop. Now when he raises you I would certainly make a reraise of something about the size of the pot.

TheWorstPlayer 11-02-2005 11:10 AM

Re: Flopped da\' nuts - how to get value?
 
[ QUOTE ]
oh one more thing. T9s is pretty. raise preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]
I often do. This time I didn't. I have the BN here 90% of the time without raising, which was one of the considerations behind not raising.

mgsimpleton 11-02-2005 11:11 AM

Re: Flopped da\' nuts - how to get value?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
oh one more thing. T9s is pretty. raise preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]
I often do. This time I didn't. I have the BN here 90% of the time without raising, which was one of the considerations behind not raising.

[/ QUOTE ]

i recommend doing it the times when youŽre going to flop the nuts.

rikz 11-02-2005 11:11 AM

Re: Flopped da\' nuts - how to get value?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Push.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I like pushing best. It is a massive overbet that looks highly unusual. If villain has a set or two pair, he probably scratches his head for 29 seconds, then calls.

Put him into a tough decision for all his chips and he'll talk himself into handing them over often enough to make this move at least as profitable as working him over with pot bets or check raises.

Facing a massive overbet, he'll oten say to himself, "9T? If he had 9T, why bet so much? No way he has that..."


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