Bubble Decision
 

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t500 (4 handed) converter

Button (t3805)
SB (t2070)
BB (t1975)
Hero (t2150)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

Re: Bubble Decision
 

Obviously this is a push or fold situation, and I would push. By simple gap concept reasoning, you're gonna get everyone to lay down marginal hands. I don't see how the Button could call, since his most +EV play is to let you steal just this once and then continue to run over the table. I don't see the SB and BB calling with hands weaker than AA/KK/QQ/AK, since they still have a chance of placing ITM and would be knocked out if they called and lost.. so push

Re: Bubble Decision
 

POOOSH.

Re: Bubble Decision
 

Move allin, no question in my mind. Of course you'd like to avoid confrontations and watch other players get eliminated, but you don't have that luxury here. Your hand is too strong 4 way, your fold equity is too high, the money in the pot is very useful to you and your opponents chip stacks are too similar to yours to expect to just fold your way into the money.

Re: Bubble Decision
 

Well, I used to think that this was an easy push, but after I went back and thought about it I am not so sure. I really feel like I have almost no fold equity here. By that I mean that the vast majority of players will not lay down a hand that is better than mine. The range of hands that I expect to get called by with some regularity are any A, any pair, and the occasional KQ. This is definitely too wide of a range for people that post on here to call with, but they are a very small subset of the PP player population.

If I fold, I have 4 hands to play where I still have relatively equivalent fold equity. After that, I have another 4+ hands to find a hand or see if someone else gets knocked out. This is a decent amount of play given the stack sizes and blind level. I think that the situation changes if I have -500 chips (easy push) or +1,000 chips (easier fold). If people think that I am getting better hands to fold here, then I think it is an easy push – but I am not so sure that this is the case. BTW, where do you draw the line KTo, K9s, QJs…

Re: Bubble Decision
 

You have a huge amount of fold equity. Almost all opponents at any level will fold over 50% of the time.

Re: Bubble Decision
 

I push, button would be retarded to call, hes the cool chip-leader , hey how about we risk 4th place with Q9s when we can run over the table in the next hand.

Re: Bubble Decision
 

[ QUOTE ]

You have a huge amount of fold equity. Almost all opponents at any level will fold over 50% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

50% of all hands or hands that are ahead of me – as this is all that I am concerned about. Put another way, what is the chance that one of the three players I am up against wakes up with a hand in the calling range.

Here is another way to think about it: Am I pushing because I have a lot of fold equity or because my hand is too strong not to. My hand rates to be a dog against any range of hands that reasonably calls me here (not to mention being dominated). This is my point – that my hand is not strong at all when considering what I am likely to be up against. If I am pushing because of my fold equity, (1) Is there a need for me to do so given my chip count? and (2) What is the difference between pushing with KJs and any two (likely to be live cards)? If I was going to push, wouldn’t it be better to do so with a hand like JTs, where I am at least a small favorite against a number of calling hands?

Re: Bubble Decision
 

Assuming you will always be called by any hand better than yours (Which you almost surely wont be), then someone will call about 51% of the time, based on my quick math. Note that you will win about 42% of the time when they call you as well.

Re: Bubble Decision
 

[ QUOTE ]

Assuming you will always be called by any hand better than yours (Which you almost surely wont be), then someone will call about 51% of the time, based on my quick math. Note that you will win about 42% of the time when they call you as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

every couple of days it seems like it's necessary that someone explain a) that your opponents don't know exactly what your cards are b) that they will not always call with exactly the set of hands that beats you c) that they will often call with hands that you beat d) that hands that beat a hand like KJs are in fact rare e) that the worst hand sometimes wins.

there's some others, but those are those are the ones that are so nicely wrapped up in curtains' post.

citanul

Re: Bubble Decision
 

So what range of hands do you think that I am likely to get called by? Is it better than any A / any pair or worse?

Re: Bubble Decision
 

It really depends. Some players will call with 22-33, some won't. Some will call with A7, some won't.

Re: Bubble Decision
 

PPPPPooooooooosssshhhhhhhhh

I'd push any king or suited connector if the table is tight.

Re: Bubble Decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I used to think that this was an easy push, but after I went back and thought about it I am not so sure. I really feel like I have almost no fold equity here. By that I mean that the vast majority of players will not lay down a hand that is better than mine. The range of hands that I expect to get called by with some regularity are any A, any pair, and the occasional KQ. This is definitely too wide of a range for people that post on here to call with, but they are a very small subset of the PP player population.


[/ QUOTE ]

Can we get a buy-in here, please? It's critical information, and everybody always leaves it out.

I think your assumed call range is wrong almost no matter what the buy-in. The only time I ever get called on the bubble by a comparable stack with A2 is if I've really been WAY out of line pushing every hand.

A2 is dominated by so many pushing hands (all pairs and aces), it's really a pretty bad calling hand and most players appreciate this fact.

I think a better calling range is something like: 44+,A7s+,A9o+,KQs. Running the usual $EV analysis on that assumption gives:

http://sitngo-analyzer.com/poker/KJs.PNG

And as usual, this agrees with the experienced players' conventional wisdom of pushing this hand.

Even if you want to loosen up the aces some to: A5s+,A7o+, it still beats folding, although it's closer now:

http://sitngo-analyzer.com/poker/KJs-loose.PNG

In any un-exceptional game, I push this hand, although I don't particularly like my position. I'd much rather push this hand from the button, for example.

As for where to draw the line, here's all the hands that rate to have 1/4% (of the prize pool) more equity than folding (by ICM valuation):

44+,A8o+,A5s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs.

eastbay

Re: Bubble Decision
 

Thanks a lot - this was very helpful. The SNG power tools is pretty cool, where can I get one of those? This was a $50+5. I think that your hand range is probably more accurate - but I really feel like at this stage in the tourney with the blinds as high as they are, people often freak out and will call off their chips with marginal holdings.

This seems to show two things. (1) That the call is marginally EV positive. I haven’t seen this type of analysis before so I don’t know how to interpret the results (i.e., why is 1/4% of the prize pool significant?). Given what seems like marginal value (or is 1% no longer marginal) – you think that this is an easy push or could go either way? What would 77/AJ show in terms of $EV Diff?

Also, the +EV comes from my FE as I am always taking the worst of it when called. This shows that I should be increasing my push range here relative to what most people probably think. What would the response be if I posted this hand and it showed JT suited? I’m guessing an easy fold for most, although there is almost no difference in EV between the two against your range of hands.

Re: Bubble Decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks a lot - this was very helpful. The SNG power tools is pretty cool, where can I get one of those?


[/ QUOTE ]

I'll PM you. It's a commercial program I offer.

[ QUOTE ]

This was a $50+5. I think that your hand range is probably more accurate - but I really feel like at this stage in the tourney with the blinds as high as they are, people often freak out and will call off their chips with marginal holdings.

This seems to show two things. (1) That the call is marginally EV positive.


[/ QUOTE ]

> 1% equity is not really marginal. But that depends on the table conditions. It is possible that this hand is a fold if the table is wild, but that's a pretty exceptional game condition. As I said, I push this hand in a $55 (where I have by far the most experience, BTW.)

[ QUOTE ]

I haven’t seen this type of analysis before so I don’t know how to interpret the results (i.e., why is 1/4% of the prize pool significant?).


[/ QUOTE ]

It's fairly arbitrary, just a little "survival value" buffer that seems reasonable with a lot of experience with this kind of analysis.

[ QUOTE ]

Given what seems like marginal value (or is 1% no longer marginal)


[/ QUOTE ]

No, I think giving up 1% edges is death, generally speaking.

[ QUOTE ]

What would 77/AJ show in terms of $EV Diff?


[/ QUOTE ]

They're both significantly stronger. AJo is +2.1% and 77 is +1.8% given the tighter calling assumption. My experience is that waiting for +1.5% edges is far too conservative.

[ QUOTE ]

Also, the +EV comes from my FE as I am always taking the worst of it when called. This shows that I should be increasing my push range here relative to what most people probably think. What would the response be if I posted this hand and it showed JT suited? I’m guessing an easy fold for most, although there is almost no difference in EV between the two against your range of hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Aha. And now you've had a valuable insight about the relative value of holdings vs. image/calling standards for bubble play.

eastbay

Re: Bubble Decision
 

Note that I would usually push with JTs here. (By usually I mean always unless I had a really good reason not to, but having a hard time figuring out what reason that would be.)

Re: Bubble Decision
 

Would, 'having pushed the last 47 hands in a row', be a good reason?

Re: Bubble Decision
 

Yeah, also someone disconnected might discourage me as well. btw pretty impressive to have so few chips after 47 pushes in a row.

Re: Bubble Decision
 

Thanks for all of this – really good stuff. I just found poker stove a few months ago. Up until then, everything I did was based on feel and experience. This told me that KJs here was a definite push, but I’ve started to re-think a lot about the game lately.

Your analysis is great in quantifying everything for me. Basically, I should be increasing my range of push hands in this situation. My gut tells me to push, but I’d like to think more about (1) narrowing down the specific range of hands that I can be called with in various scenarios and then (2) exploiting quantifiable edges that I am comfortable with.

Thanks again.

Re: Bubble Decision
 

you're thinking too much about it.

blinds are 250/500... you need to push any decent hand... if you get called by a better hand, you still have a chance to win.

the game gets ugly at this point--- you need to be aggressive

Re: Bubble Decision
 

[ QUOTE ]

Yeah, also someone disconnected might discourage me as well. btw pretty impressive to have so few chips after 47 pushes in a row.

[/ QUOTE ]

meh, if you just lose a lot of those pushes, it's not so impressive.

citanul

Re: Bubble Decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
but I really feel like at this stage in the tourney with the blinds as high as they are, people often freak out and will call off their chips with marginal holdings.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the opposite is usually true - people will fold pretty strong holdings on the bubble, not wanting to be the first one to have to make a stand, hoping that two others get involved, allowing them "safely" into the money.

The general exception, which is somewhat present here, is when the BB is at risk of losing fold equity/becoming the clear short stack if he folds. So...generally speaking, he may loosen up his calling standards a bit, but I doubt the button or SB would (so long as you don't have some kind of "maniac image"). Maybe the BB will call you with any pair/most Aces/a few other combinations, but I'd wager that the button/SB are folding a number of hands better than yours.

If you don't push KJs here, odds are pretty good that you're the one that will have to make a stand with a shorter stack and crappier holding. 4 BB UTG on the bubble (going down to 2.5 BB in two hands if you lose your blinds) with no super-short stack is not the time to get overly passive. KJs is a pretty strong hand 4-handed, especially where 2 of the other 3 players' calling standards should be pretty tight.

If you push, get called and lose, oh well. Sh-t happens. I imagine that's exactly what happened this hand, but it doesn't make it the incorrect play in the long run.

Re: Bubble Decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
Move allin, no question in my mind.

[/ QUOTE ]